heliodoro temprano arroyo | European Commission (original) (raw)

Papers by heliodoro temprano arroyo

LSE Business Review, 2023

A sufficient supply of euro-denominated safe bonds, those rated triple A, is critical for the EU'... more A sufficient supply of euro-denominated safe bonds, those rated triple A, is critical for the EU's banking and capital markets union and to foster the euro's international role. It would also help ease the world's safe asset scarcity. The EU debate has so far focused on the possible creation of common or supranational safe assets. This has underplayed the potential contribution of sovereign assets. Francesco Papadia and Heliodoro Temprano-Arroyo suggest a strategy to correct this bias.

Bruegel Policy Contribution, 2022

A sufficient supply of safe assets denominated in euros is critical if the European Union is to a... more A sufficient supply of safe assets denominated in euros is critical if the European Union is to achieve full banking and capital markets union while fostering the euro's international role. The European debate on developing the supply of safe assets has so far focused on the possible creation of a common safe asset. This has tended to underplay the potential contribution of sovereign assets. Expanding the supply of national safe assets, notably through the gradual implementation of fiscal and growth-oriented structural policies in euro-area countries, leading to upgrading of their sovereign ratings, provides a promising, and perhaps more feasible, option. An upgrade to triple A of those euro-area countries that are currently rated double A could produce substantially more safe assets than most common safe asset proposals, including those based on the development of 'synthetic' safe assets.

Policy Note, Center for Global Development

Over 25 million people worldwide have been forced to flee their home countries, and many of these... more Over 25 million people worldwide have been forced to flee their home countries, and many of these refugees have been or will be displaced for decades. Yet neither donors nor host countries have come to grips with the increasingly protracted nature of these situations, and the associated need for refugees to have access to education and healthcare and be permitted to move about and seek jobs so they can support themselves and their families. Local communities and host countries also need new kinds of assistance to adjust to these realities and create opportunities for everyone. This note explores how donor countries could use trade preferences to help host countries create jobs and facilitate the transition from humanitarian relief to economic inclusion.

Comparative Economic Studies, 2003

This paper assesses the advisability of regional monetary integration in Latin America by looking... more This paper assesses the advisability of regional monetary integration in Latin America by looking at the experience with EMU, and by applying the theory of optimum currency areas (OCA) and other criteria proposed by the more recent literature. The analysis based on the OCA criteria suggests that, with the possible exception of NAFTA, none of the regions examined should engage in monetary integration. The traditional OCA theory does not take into account, however, some relevant aspects such as the degree of de facto dollarisation, the existence of credibility problems and the endogeneity of some of its criteria. After extending the analysis to these factors, the picture changes somewhat, particularly regarding the advisability of dollar-based monetary integration in Central America.

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, Feb 11, 1999

Heliodoro TEMPRANO ARROYO, 2022

This paper assesses the implications of the large issuance of euro-denominated bonds under the NG... more This paper assesses the implications of the large issuance of euro-denominated bonds under the NGEU and SURE instruments, as well as of other measures taken by the EU in response to the pandemic, for the global role of the euro. It focuses on the impact of the new facilities on the supply of safe assets in euros, highlighted by the literature as one of the main constraints so far on the internationalisation of the euro.

After discussing this and other reasons why the euro is still punching internationally below the euro area’s economic weight, the paper estimates the expected quantitative impact of the new facilities and other measures, including the euro area’s national fiscal responses to the COVID-19 crisis, on the issuance of euro safe assets. It concludes that, although the NGEU and SURE facilities represent an important step, they are unlikely to sufficiently boost on their own the euro’s global role, reflecting their temporary nature and the partly offsetting acquisition of safe bonds under the ECB’s asset purchase programmes.

The paper argues that, if the EU wants to achieve its objective of strengthening the euro’s global status, it should complement these efforts with other measures, as part of a comprehensive strategy. Ongoing structural changes in the world economy, including financial technology, and changes in the geopolitical environment create a more propitious context for this policy to bear its fruits because they make it more plausible that the world will move towards a true multi-polar currency system, overcoming the incumbency advantages that have protected the dollar’s hegemonic position since World War II.

Using Trade Preferences to Support Refugees and their Hosts, 2019

To my parents, who once migrated to Madrid, and to my sons, Marco and David, who are also childre... more To my parents, who once migrated to Madrid, and to my sons, Marco and David, who are also children of emigrants and for whom the world is their home He would also like to thank: Mauro Lanati, from the Migration Policy Centre of the EUI, for useful discussions on the relationship between aid and development and for sharing some of his data; Alessandro D' Alfonso, EU Fellow at the RSCAS and European Parliament official, for many helpful exchanges on the budgetary and financial implications of the EU's migration policy; Sergio Carrera (EUI and CEPS), for discussion and documentation on the new EU facilities for refugees and on EU cooperation with third countries on returns and readmission; Sonia Plaza, Dilip Ratha and Eung Ju Kim, from the World Bank, for data, documentation and insights on remittances; Caroline Bahnson and Thomas Djurhuus, also from the World Bank, for support on the IDA and GCFF refugee facilities; and Manuela Naessl (EBRD) for input on the EBRD. He is also very grateful to the following colleagues from the European Commission and the European External Action Service (EEAS) for providing valuable documentation, data or insights: Johan Bendz (DG BUDG), on the EU' s Multi-Annual Financial Framework; Antonella Colavita (DG NEAR and DG DEVCO) and Laszlo Csoto and Jean-Martial Marenne (both DG ECFIN), on the EIB, the External Investment Plan and the multilateral facilities for refugees; Joern Griesse and Dirk Lenaerts (DG ECFIN), on Macro-Financial Assistance; Frederik Schutyser (SG) and Dan Rotenberg (DG HOME), on the new Partnership Framework and EU policy on returns; Lucas Spieser (DG NEAR) and Sibylle Bikar (EEAS) on the EU-Turkey Statement and the Facility for Refugees in Turkey; Joanna Athlin (DG NEAR) on the Madad Fund; and Ignacio Burrull (DG DEVCO) on the EU's trust fund for Africa. Finally, the author is very grateful to Giorgio Giamberini for his superb job in formatting the book. i Table of Contents List of abbreviations iii 1. Introduction 2. Can aid work? A fresh look at the academic debate 2.1 Development and migration 2.2 Aid and migration: the direct link 2.3 The recent literature on aid and migration: a more encouraging view 3. Is EU ODA responding to the migration challenge? 3.1 General evidence from the academic literature 3.2 The actual response of EU aid: an updated analysis of ODA data 3.2.1 ODA flows and forced displacement 3.2.2 Regional breakdown of ODA and overall migration flows 3.3 The role of EU institutions and the MFF for 2021-2027 4. The EU's new trust funds and facilities for refugees 4.1 Basic features and rationale of the new facilities 4.2 Performance of the new facilities: achievements and criticism 5. Other external financial instruments of the EU 5.1 The EIB's External Lending and its Economic Resilience Initiative 5.2 The European External Investment Plan 5.3 Macro-Financial Assistance 6. The new multilateral facilities for refugees 6.1 The IDA's refugee facility for low-income countries 6.2 The Global Concessional Financing Facility 6.3 The EBRD´s refugee response package ii 7. The relevance of climate change finance 7.1 The debate on the relationship between climate change and migration 7.2 The EU's climate finance response in an international context 7.3 Scope for improvement in the composition of climate change finance 8. The role of remittances 8.1 A financial flow of growing importance 8.1 Why remittances matter for migration 8.3 An EU policy strategy for remittances 9. Increasing aid effectiveness through compacts 9.1 Compacts as a developmental approach to refugee protection 9.2 The EU-Jordan Compact 9.3 The EU-Turkey Statement 9.4 The Partnership Framework with Third Countries on Migration 9.5 A new framework for refugee aid: the UN's Global Refugee Compact 10. Conclusions and policy recommendations

Promoting Labour Market Integration of Refugees with Trade Preferences: Beyond the EU-Jordan Compact, 2018

Trade preferences provide a potential policy tool for supporting refugee employment in countries ... more Trade preferences provide a potential policy tool for supporting refugee employment in countries of first asylum. Thus, in the context of the EU-Jordan Compact agreed in 2016, the EU eased the rules of origin for Jordanian exporters employing a minimum share of Syrian refugees. The use of trade preferences to encourage the labour market integration of refugees is consistent with the new, developmental approach to refugee protection advocated by the recent literature and enshrined in the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework adopted by the UN in 2016. The paper looks at the so-far disappointing impact of the EU-Jordan agreement on rules of origin, as well as the experience with two relevant U.S. preferential programmes (the Qualified Industrial Zones initiative for Egypt and Jordan and the African Growth and Opportunity Act) that have generated substantial export growth and employment. It then discusses the conditions under which trade preferences can prove an effective instrument for refugee integration and makes some concrete policy recommendations.

Trade preferences provide a potential policy tool for supporting the integration of refugees in c... more Trade preferences provide a potential policy tool for supporting the integration of refugees in countries of first asylum. Thus, the EU-Jordan Compact, agreed following the London conference of February 2016 on ‘Supporting Syria and the Region’, eased the rules of origin for Jordanian exporters employing a minimum share of Syrian refugees. The debate on the use of trade preferences to encourage the labour-market integration of refugees has been reactivated by a similar proposal made recently by Turkey in the WTO context. The experience with the Qualifying Industrial Zones initiative, launched in 1996 by the US for Egypt and Jordan, suggests that trade preferences, if properly designed, can be a powerful instrument for generating export growth and employment. However, both this experience and the so far disappointing impact of the EU-Jordan agreement on rules of origin show the limits and drawbacks of this type of scheme. This Policy Brief discusses the conditions under which trade p...

The EU faces major challenges in asylum and migration policy: reorganize the EU asylum system, se... more The EU faces major challenges in asylum and migration policy: reorganize the EU asylum system, secure the external border, curb irregular immigration through cooperation with African governments, and support developing countries that host large numbers of refugees from Syria and elsewhere. These challenges are inter-connected and require a comprehensive approach with broad support by all EU member states. However, member states are affected by immigration in substantially different ways and the political preferences of policy makers and voters also vary widely–necessitating implementable proposals to overcome the EU’s asylum and immigration impasse. In the '2018 MEDAM Assessment Report', we propose a comprehensive strategy for EU asylum and immigration policies that is both politically feasible and effective, based on the concept of flexible solidarity between EU member states.

The Maghreb - Macroeconomic Performance, Reform Challenges and Integration with the EU, 2015

The Maghreb: Macroeconomic Performance, Reform Challenges and Integration with the EU

The EU’s Southern Neighbourhood - Macroeconomic Performance and Equity, 2014

Four years after the start of the Arab Spring uprisings, the macroeconomic situation in the EU’s ... more Four years after the start of the Arab Spring uprisings, the macroeconomic situation in the EU’s Southern Neighbourhood remains weak and vulnerable and the recent intensification of civil strife and military conflicts is exacerbating this economic malaise. Macroeconomic performance may not improve in a sustainable manner without an appropriate resolution or mitigation of the underlying political problems. At the same time, macroeconomic instability and social frustration with an economic model that is perceived as unfair and non-inclusive risk feeding negatively into the existing political instability. This Economic Brief argues that it is essential for the countries in the region to press ahead with their economic stabilisation and reform agendas even if the political environment is far from optimal. It looks into some key reforms that are necessary to both ensure macroeconomic sustainability and move towards a more equitable growth model.

The paper examines the implications of EMU for world macroeconomic and financial stability, disti... more The paper examines the implications of EMU for world macroeconomic and financial stability, distinguishing EMU effects from other global factors at work. It concludes that EMU is having on the whole stabilising effects on the world economy, particularly in neighbouring regions.

The International Role of the Euro,

From its introduction in 1999, the euro quickly emerged as the second most important internationa... more From its introduction in 1999, the euro quickly
emerged as the second most important
international currency after the US dollar and it
continues to consolidate its position. The euro is
extensively used in international debt markets
and its role in international trade and in official
foreign exchange reserves has been growing
gradually. But almost 10 years after its
introduction, the internationalisation of the euro
is characterised by a strong regional and
institutional pattern. The international use of the
euro is mainly concentrated to countries
neighbouring the euro area, in other countries
with special economic and political links to the
EU, and in transactions directly involving euro area
economic agents.

The euro's current international role, however, is not commensurate with the size and other structural characteristics of the euro area economy. The paper discusses the key factors that will influence the euro's future international importance.

European Economy- …, 2008

This paper examines the benefits of co-ordination in EMU in a stylised manner and how these benef... more This paper examines the benefits of co-ordination in EMU in a stylised manner and how these benefits have shaped the co-ordination framework in EMU. It then discusses in detail the co-ordination experience in four areas that are particularly important for the functioning ...

Informacion Comercial Espanola Ice Revista De Economia, 2003

... ABRIL 2003 NÚMERO 806 74 7 Para una análisis histórico de la UEM, véanse GROS yTHYGESEN (1998... more ... ABRIL 2003 NÚMERO 806 74 7 Para una análisis histórico de la UEM, véanse GROS yTHYGESEN (1998) y KENEN (1995). 8 Para una discusión de esta controversia, véase, por ejemplo, CORDEN (1993). ... ABRIL 2003 NÚMERO 806 75 9 Véase GROS y THYGESEN (1998). ...

Regional integration in Europe and Latin America: …, 2003

The paper assesses the advisability of subregional monetary integration in Latin America by looki... more The paper assesses the advisability of subregional monetary integration in Latin America by looking at the EU's experience with EMU and by applying the theory of optimum currency areas (OCA) and other criteria proposed by the more recent literature. The analysis based on the OCA criteria suggests that, with the possible exception of NAFTA, none of the subregions examined should engage into monetary integration. They are subject to frequent asymmetric shocks and, with the exception of NAFTA, their degree of trade and financial integration and macroeconomic convergence remains insufficient and they lack a large and stable member country from which to import monetary credibility. These subregions should in particular refrain from adopting exchange rate stabilisation schemes before achieving deeper integration and convergence. The traditional OCA theory does not take into account, however, some relevant aspects such as the degree of de facto dollarisation, the existence of serious credibility problems in some countries and the possible endogeneity of its criteria. After extending the analysis to these factors, the picture changes somewhat, particularly regarding the advisability of dollar-based monetary integration in Central America.

The following symbols have been used throughout this paper: ... to indicate that data are not ava... more The following symbols have been used throughout this paper: ... to indicate that data are not available;-to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist;-between years or months (e.g., 1994-95 or January-June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; / between years (e.g., 1994/95) to indicate a crop or fiscal (financial) year. n.a. to indicate that data are not applicable; "Billion" means a thousand million. Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding. The term "country," as used in this paper, does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice; the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states, but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally on a separate and independent basis.