Tom van der Voorn | Erasmus University Rotterdam (original) (raw)
Papers by Tom van der Voorn
Current Research in Environmental Sustainability
A supplement to: Van der Voorn, T., Quist, J., Pahl-Wostl, C., Haasnoot, M., (2015). "En... more A supplement to: Van der Voorn, T., Quist, J., Pahl-Wostl, C., Haasnoot, M., (2015). "Envisioning robust climate change adaptation futures for coastal regions: A comparative evaluation of cases in three continents." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.
9 billion by 2050 (UN, 2010). Such population growth imposes profound challenges in meeting futur... more 9 billion by 2050 (UN, 2010). Such population growth imposes profound challenges in meeting future food requirements. According to FAO projections, a 70 % increase in food consumption is expected, driven by the above‐mentioned large increase in world population, but also by a relevant increase in PC kcal consumption. Globally, diets are also changing rapidly, with a clear tendency towards an increasing consumption of meat. For 2050, FAO has estimated meat consumption to be around 4.65 billion ton. More specifically, it is projected that by 2050, 2.3 times more poultry meat and between 1.4 and 1.8 times more of the meat of other livestock products will be consumed as in 2010 (FAO, 2009). This increase in meat consumption can be attributed to assumed increases in income and relates to the increase in average calorie intake. The world’s average daily calorie availability is projected to rise from 2 789 kcal per person per day in 2000 to 3 130 kcal per person in 2050, a 12 percent incre...
COVID, 2021
When the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic started to manifest itself across the globe at an un... more When the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic started to manifest itself across the globe at an unprecedented pace and magnitude, the various emergency response strategies pursued by highly affected countries in Europe raised many questions about their supposed effectiveness. To contain the outbreak, a rapid and adequate emergency response was vital to control emergent public health risks, but emergency management was challenged by large uncertainty due to many unknowns about crucial determinants of the outbreak, determining the effectiveness of the response, which was often derived from uncertain information. This paper aims to draw lessons from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and it presents a review of strategies for emergency response pursued in eight European countries, including tipping points that triggered strategy shifts in emergency response. The paper shows that: (i) these countries have a culturally determined preference for policy response style (Mediterranean, c...
This paper aims to provide insight into how to cope with complexity and uncertainty in decision m... more This paper aims to provide insight into how to cope with complexity and uncertainty in decision making on flood resilience in 13 pilot areas in five countries. This study is part of the Interreg North Sea region project FRAMES. In the pilots different actors work on the exploration and implementation of diversified strategies for flood resilience, based on multiple elements of the disaster management cycle. To gain understanding of the complexity these actors are facing, we discuss more generic insights in climate change adaptation and the complexity of joint action. Since the decisions to be made in the pilot regions depend on the uncertainties about the future, we investigate the supporting role of backcasting and Dynamic Adaptation Policy Pathways in making robust decisions in our present volatile world. Against this backdrop the current flood risk governance arrangements of the participating countries are compared by employing and extending the analysis of the STARFLOOD project ...
Current Pollution Reports, 2021
The episodic outbreak of COVID-19 due to SARS-CoV-2 is severely affecting the economy, and the gl... more The episodic outbreak of COVID-19 due to SARS-CoV-2 is severely affecting the economy, and the global count of infected patients is increasing. The actual number of patients had been underestimated due to limited facilities for testing as well as asymptomatic nature of the expression of COVID-19 on individual basis. Tragically, for emerging economies with high population density, the situation has been more complex due to insufficient testing facilities for diagnosis of the disease. However, the recent reports about persistent shedding of viral RNA of SARS-CoV-2 in the human feces have created a possibility to track the prevalence and trends of the disease in communities, known as wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE). In this article, we highlight the current limitations and future prospects for WBE to manage pandemics.
Environmental Science & Technology, 2020
Regional Environmental Change, 2020
In climate change mitigation, backcasting scenarios are often used for exploring options for achi... more In climate change mitigation, backcasting scenarios are often used for exploring options for achieving a single environmental goal, albeit at the expense of other goals. This paper assesses potential conflicts and synergies between multiple environmental policy goals based on four future scenarios on Swedish rural land use, assuming zero GHG emissions in 2060. The assessment shows that goal conflicts are apparent, and policy makers need to make trade-offs between goals. The choice of strategy for dealing with these trade-offs yields conflicts or synergies. The assessment shows that a transition to zero GHG emissions provides opportunities for Sweden to shift to carbon free land-use planning. Overall, there are alternative ways with different underlying assumptions to achieve zero GHG emissions, which will feed discussions on new opportunities to overcome multi-scale and multi-sectoral goal conflicts. Multi-target backcasting scenarios are considered more suited to account for the mu...
This paper analyses six major transitions in watershed management in the Lower Mississippi River ... more This paper analyses six major transitions in watershed management in the Lower Mississippi River from the early 19th century till present. A conceptual framework is developed for analysing the role of visions, agency and niches in water management transitions and applied to a historical case on water management in the Lower Mississippi River. It is shown that water management regimes change over time and that major transitions were preceded by niches, in which new visions were developed and empowered. The case shows that: (i) emerging visions play an important role in guiding transitions; (ii) agency enables the further diffusion of visions and niches; (iii) vision champions play an important role in transitions, but are not decisive; (iv) each transition has led to an extension of the number of societal functions provided, which has led to more complex water management regimes in which functions are combined and integrated; and (v) external landscape factors are important, as they ...
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2015
The paper reports on a comparative study of three different cases on vision and strategy developm... more The paper reports on a comparative study of three different cases on vision and strategy development for climate change adaptation planning in (i) The South African Breede–Overberg Catchment, (ii) The Mississippi Estuary-New Orleans region and (iii) The Dutch Rhine-Meuse Estuary. The objective of the paper is twofold: to develop a better understanding of such processes and to further develop the Backcasting-Adaptive Management (BCAM) methodology. A framework for case evaluation is developed using six dimensions: (i) inputs and resources, (ii) future vision, (iii) stakeholder engagement, (iv) methodological aspects, (v) pathway development and (vi) impact. Major conclusions based on a cross-case comparison and testing propositions are (i) participatory vision development is a strong tool for climate change adaptation planning in different governance contexts and shows considerable diversity in its application in these contexts; (ii) a single, shared future vision is not a prerequisite for vision and pathway development and endorsement; (iii) broad stakeholder engagement enriches strategy development, but the involvement of marginal groups requires additional efforts and capacity building; (iv) multiple pathways and robust elements are useful but require novel expertise; and (v) more institutional embeddedness and support for participatory processes lead to better implementation of the outcomes of these processes.
Within the context of my Master's thesis project on safe, accessible and sustainable drinking... more Within the context of my Master's thesis project on safe, accessible and sustainable drinking water supply for the people in rural Bangladesh, I was the initiator of The Hidden Language seminar. During the seminar, forty people from TU Delft and other Dutch universities and from Dutch and Bangladeshi NGOs were involved in discussions about a rights and technology based and participatory approach to social development in Bangladesh. The seminar revolved around the concept of "policy transfer" or "institutional transplantation" in order to address "old" problems in a new way. This approach reveals that technology transfer without interference in the fabric of the receiving culture is not possible and not even preferable, as all nations and cultures have always been in dialogue with each other taking over values and policies from each other, and adapting them according to their own needs and circumstances. Meanwhile, in any form of project implementati...
Futures, 2012
To account for interconnected social, economic and ecological changes, one could speak of socioec... more To account for interconnected social, economic and ecological changes, one could speak of socioeconomic-ecological systems (SEES). 2 Although backcasting is advocated as a promosing tool for anticipating discontinuity. List [23]. points out the uncertainty about it. He argues that it may not be readily scalable, because discontinuities can very greatly in scale and in consequences. 3 The IPCC [24] reports that investigations into climate change and its potential consequences have begun to recognise the importance of strongly nonlinear, complex, and discontinuous responses. These types of responses, called singularities, can occur at all temporal and spatial scales of systems influenced by climate change (high confidence can be given to the likelihood that some such singularities will occur, but low confidence usually is assigned to any specific example of a possible abrupt event).
ACS ES&T Water, 2020
Metrics & More Article Recommendations A s billions of people have been or still are under lockdo... more Metrics & More Article Recommendations A s billions of people have been or still are under lockdown to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries around the world are implementing strategies to deal with the pandemic and its impacts on society. Rapid answers are needed, and the solutions may well be found outside the approaches that are usually prescribed for such events. The urgent immediacy of COVID-19 provides a lens into how to deal with many other slow-burning crises such as the water and climate crises. The COVID-19 pandemic is prompting questions for the water supply and sanitation sector globally and especially in those areas, which are already under stress due to physical or economic water scarcity. As access to water supply and proper hygiene are crucial in fighting off this pandemic, countries need to step up efforts to effectively tackle the water shortage. In the spirit of never letting a crisis go to waste, what lessons can be drawn from the pandemic for tackling the water crisis? The water crisis and the COVID-19 crisis are two very different societal challenges, but both have some key characteristics in common. Vulnerability. The pandemic especially hits the elderly, sick, and poor. This is essentially how every crisis leaves its traces in society. It is always those that are the most vulnerable
This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
In the face of climate change, a major challenge for policy makers is to develop robust scenario-... more In the face of climate change, a major challenge for policy makers is to develop robust scenario-based strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation options. This paper presents a novel a ...
COVID-19, 2021
When the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic started to manifest itself across the globe at an un... more When the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic started to manifest itself across the globe at an unprecedented pace and magnitude, the various emergency response strategies pursued by highly affected countries in Europe raised many questions about their supposed effectiveness. To contain the outbreak, a rapid and adequate emergency response was vital to control emergent public health risks, but emergency management was challenged by large uncertainty due to many unknowns about crucial determinants of the outbreak, determining the effectiveness of the response, which was often derived from uncertain information. This paper aims to draw lessons from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and it presents a review of strategies for emergency response pursued in eight European countries, including tipping points that triggered strategy shifts in emergency response. The paper shows that: (i) these countries have a culturally determined preference for policy response style (Mediterranean, continental and liberal style) depending on their relative scores on power distance and uncertainty avoidance, which (ii) is reflected in the initially adopted control paradigm and the associated strategy; (iii) Mediterranean countries (Italy, France, Spain) with high levels of power distance and uncertainty avoidance have a tendency to respond to new unknown situations by deploying strong rule-based regulatory systems which offer mental security and social order, whereas continental (Germany and Austria) and liberal countries (the Netherlands, the UK and Sweden) do this to medium and much lower extents.
Current Research in Environmental Sustainability
A supplement to: Van der Voorn, T., Quist, J., Pahl-Wostl, C., Haasnoot, M., (2015). "En... more A supplement to: Van der Voorn, T., Quist, J., Pahl-Wostl, C., Haasnoot, M., (2015). "Envisioning robust climate change adaptation futures for coastal regions: A comparative evaluation of cases in three continents." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.
9 billion by 2050 (UN, 2010). Such population growth imposes profound challenges in meeting futur... more 9 billion by 2050 (UN, 2010). Such population growth imposes profound challenges in meeting future food requirements. According to FAO projections, a 70 % increase in food consumption is expected, driven by the above‐mentioned large increase in world population, but also by a relevant increase in PC kcal consumption. Globally, diets are also changing rapidly, with a clear tendency towards an increasing consumption of meat. For 2050, FAO has estimated meat consumption to be around 4.65 billion ton. More specifically, it is projected that by 2050, 2.3 times more poultry meat and between 1.4 and 1.8 times more of the meat of other livestock products will be consumed as in 2010 (FAO, 2009). This increase in meat consumption can be attributed to assumed increases in income and relates to the increase in average calorie intake. The world’s average daily calorie availability is projected to rise from 2 789 kcal per person per day in 2000 to 3 130 kcal per person in 2050, a 12 percent incre...
COVID, 2021
When the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic started to manifest itself across the globe at an un... more When the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic started to manifest itself across the globe at an unprecedented pace and magnitude, the various emergency response strategies pursued by highly affected countries in Europe raised many questions about their supposed effectiveness. To contain the outbreak, a rapid and adequate emergency response was vital to control emergent public health risks, but emergency management was challenged by large uncertainty due to many unknowns about crucial determinants of the outbreak, determining the effectiveness of the response, which was often derived from uncertain information. This paper aims to draw lessons from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and it presents a review of strategies for emergency response pursued in eight European countries, including tipping points that triggered strategy shifts in emergency response. The paper shows that: (i) these countries have a culturally determined preference for policy response style (Mediterranean, c...
This paper aims to provide insight into how to cope with complexity and uncertainty in decision m... more This paper aims to provide insight into how to cope with complexity and uncertainty in decision making on flood resilience in 13 pilot areas in five countries. This study is part of the Interreg North Sea region project FRAMES. In the pilots different actors work on the exploration and implementation of diversified strategies for flood resilience, based on multiple elements of the disaster management cycle. To gain understanding of the complexity these actors are facing, we discuss more generic insights in climate change adaptation and the complexity of joint action. Since the decisions to be made in the pilot regions depend on the uncertainties about the future, we investigate the supporting role of backcasting and Dynamic Adaptation Policy Pathways in making robust decisions in our present volatile world. Against this backdrop the current flood risk governance arrangements of the participating countries are compared by employing and extending the analysis of the STARFLOOD project ...
Current Pollution Reports, 2021
The episodic outbreak of COVID-19 due to SARS-CoV-2 is severely affecting the economy, and the gl... more The episodic outbreak of COVID-19 due to SARS-CoV-2 is severely affecting the economy, and the global count of infected patients is increasing. The actual number of patients had been underestimated due to limited facilities for testing as well as asymptomatic nature of the expression of COVID-19 on individual basis. Tragically, for emerging economies with high population density, the situation has been more complex due to insufficient testing facilities for diagnosis of the disease. However, the recent reports about persistent shedding of viral RNA of SARS-CoV-2 in the human feces have created a possibility to track the prevalence and trends of the disease in communities, known as wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE). In this article, we highlight the current limitations and future prospects for WBE to manage pandemics.
Environmental Science & Technology, 2020
Regional Environmental Change, 2020
In climate change mitigation, backcasting scenarios are often used for exploring options for achi... more In climate change mitigation, backcasting scenarios are often used for exploring options for achieving a single environmental goal, albeit at the expense of other goals. This paper assesses potential conflicts and synergies between multiple environmental policy goals based on four future scenarios on Swedish rural land use, assuming zero GHG emissions in 2060. The assessment shows that goal conflicts are apparent, and policy makers need to make trade-offs between goals. The choice of strategy for dealing with these trade-offs yields conflicts or synergies. The assessment shows that a transition to zero GHG emissions provides opportunities for Sweden to shift to carbon free land-use planning. Overall, there are alternative ways with different underlying assumptions to achieve zero GHG emissions, which will feed discussions on new opportunities to overcome multi-scale and multi-sectoral goal conflicts. Multi-target backcasting scenarios are considered more suited to account for the mu...
This paper analyses six major transitions in watershed management in the Lower Mississippi River ... more This paper analyses six major transitions in watershed management in the Lower Mississippi River from the early 19th century till present. A conceptual framework is developed for analysing the role of visions, agency and niches in water management transitions and applied to a historical case on water management in the Lower Mississippi River. It is shown that water management regimes change over time and that major transitions were preceded by niches, in which new visions were developed and empowered. The case shows that: (i) emerging visions play an important role in guiding transitions; (ii) agency enables the further diffusion of visions and niches; (iii) vision champions play an important role in transitions, but are not decisive; (iv) each transition has led to an extension of the number of societal functions provided, which has led to more complex water management regimes in which functions are combined and integrated; and (v) external landscape factors are important, as they ...
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2015
The paper reports on a comparative study of three different cases on vision and strategy developm... more The paper reports on a comparative study of three different cases on vision and strategy development for climate change adaptation planning in (i) The South African Breede–Overberg Catchment, (ii) The Mississippi Estuary-New Orleans region and (iii) The Dutch Rhine-Meuse Estuary. The objective of the paper is twofold: to develop a better understanding of such processes and to further develop the Backcasting-Adaptive Management (BCAM) methodology. A framework for case evaluation is developed using six dimensions: (i) inputs and resources, (ii) future vision, (iii) stakeholder engagement, (iv) methodological aspects, (v) pathway development and (vi) impact. Major conclusions based on a cross-case comparison and testing propositions are (i) participatory vision development is a strong tool for climate change adaptation planning in different governance contexts and shows considerable diversity in its application in these contexts; (ii) a single, shared future vision is not a prerequisite for vision and pathway development and endorsement; (iii) broad stakeholder engagement enriches strategy development, but the involvement of marginal groups requires additional efforts and capacity building; (iv) multiple pathways and robust elements are useful but require novel expertise; and (v) more institutional embeddedness and support for participatory processes lead to better implementation of the outcomes of these processes.
Within the context of my Master's thesis project on safe, accessible and sustainable drinking... more Within the context of my Master's thesis project on safe, accessible and sustainable drinking water supply for the people in rural Bangladesh, I was the initiator of The Hidden Language seminar. During the seminar, forty people from TU Delft and other Dutch universities and from Dutch and Bangladeshi NGOs were involved in discussions about a rights and technology based and participatory approach to social development in Bangladesh. The seminar revolved around the concept of "policy transfer" or "institutional transplantation" in order to address "old" problems in a new way. This approach reveals that technology transfer without interference in the fabric of the receiving culture is not possible and not even preferable, as all nations and cultures have always been in dialogue with each other taking over values and policies from each other, and adapting them according to their own needs and circumstances. Meanwhile, in any form of project implementati...
Futures, 2012
To account for interconnected social, economic and ecological changes, one could speak of socioec... more To account for interconnected social, economic and ecological changes, one could speak of socioeconomic-ecological systems (SEES). 2 Although backcasting is advocated as a promosing tool for anticipating discontinuity. List [23]. points out the uncertainty about it. He argues that it may not be readily scalable, because discontinuities can very greatly in scale and in consequences. 3 The IPCC [24] reports that investigations into climate change and its potential consequences have begun to recognise the importance of strongly nonlinear, complex, and discontinuous responses. These types of responses, called singularities, can occur at all temporal and spatial scales of systems influenced by climate change (high confidence can be given to the likelihood that some such singularities will occur, but low confidence usually is assigned to any specific example of a possible abrupt event).
ACS ES&T Water, 2020
Metrics & More Article Recommendations A s billions of people have been or still are under lockdo... more Metrics & More Article Recommendations A s billions of people have been or still are under lockdown to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries around the world are implementing strategies to deal with the pandemic and its impacts on society. Rapid answers are needed, and the solutions may well be found outside the approaches that are usually prescribed for such events. The urgent immediacy of COVID-19 provides a lens into how to deal with many other slow-burning crises such as the water and climate crises. The COVID-19 pandemic is prompting questions for the water supply and sanitation sector globally and especially in those areas, which are already under stress due to physical or economic water scarcity. As access to water supply and proper hygiene are crucial in fighting off this pandemic, countries need to step up efforts to effectively tackle the water shortage. In the spirit of never letting a crisis go to waste, what lessons can be drawn from the pandemic for tackling the water crisis? The water crisis and the COVID-19 crisis are two very different societal challenges, but both have some key characteristics in common. Vulnerability. The pandemic especially hits the elderly, sick, and poor. This is essentially how every crisis leaves its traces in society. It is always those that are the most vulnerable
This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
In the face of climate change, a major challenge for policy makers is to develop robust scenario-... more In the face of climate change, a major challenge for policy makers is to develop robust scenario-based strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation options. This paper presents a novel a ...
COVID-19, 2021
When the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic started to manifest itself across the globe at an un... more When the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic started to manifest itself across the globe at an unprecedented pace and magnitude, the various emergency response strategies pursued by highly affected countries in Europe raised many questions about their supposed effectiveness. To contain the outbreak, a rapid and adequate emergency response was vital to control emergent public health risks, but emergency management was challenged by large uncertainty due to many unknowns about crucial determinants of the outbreak, determining the effectiveness of the response, which was often derived from uncertain information. This paper aims to draw lessons from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and it presents a review of strategies for emergency response pursued in eight European countries, including tipping points that triggered strategy shifts in emergency response. The paper shows that: (i) these countries have a culturally determined preference for policy response style (Mediterranean, continental and liberal style) depending on their relative scores on power distance and uncertainty avoidance, which (ii) is reflected in the initially adopted control paradigm and the associated strategy; (iii) Mediterranean countries (Italy, France, Spain) with high levels of power distance and uncertainty avoidance have a tendency to respond to new unknown situations by deploying strong rule-based regulatory systems which offer mental security and social order, whereas continental (Germany and Austria) and liberal countries (the Netherlands, the UK and Sweden) do this to medium and much lower extents.
In the face of present and future challenges of climate change, water resource management is curr... more In the face of present and future challenges of climate change, water resource management is currently undergoing a transition toward a more adaptive management style. Despite increased research effort, our understanding of this kind of purposeful transitions is yet quite limited. Especially the relevance of guiding visions used in backcasting for developing transition pathways has so far been under-theorised in the transition management literature. Backcasting is a well-known normative scenario approach focusing on desirable futures, but nevertheless the least widely applied compared with regular forecasting and scenario approaches. Backcasting has been proposed as a suitable approach for exploring plausible but not yet evident pathways into the future, whereas visioning approaches are needed to explore the kind of future we wish for ourselves and plausible pathways that could lead to that future. By backcasting the future through time and space, we can adopt a deterministic or constructivist approach. A deterministic view involves predicting future developments on the basis of historically empirical verifiable inquiries. In this view, the future is treated as something similar as the past, which renders a ‘surprise free’ future that is connected to the present in a straightforward way. However, the past may manifest itself as an obstacle in constructing the future, distorting and narrowing our vision on the future. By comparison, a constructivist approach implies postulating the future rather malleable and open. To envision a desirable future that is radically different from the present or past, we need to break with or even forget our past and present. In either case, we often find ourselves mentally anchored in the past from which we do not easily deviate in regards to the future. The question remains to what extent backcasting can support us to make claims about an idealised future situation and plausible pathways and to provide a medium for human agency for deliberate change. A major purpose of the paper is therefore to develop a better understanding of the relevance of visions and human agency and their interplay in purposeful transitions. It does so, by addressing the following questions in the context of historical transitions in watershed management in the Lower Mississippi River: (i) the guiding and transformative role of visions, (ii) why are some visions more promising and dominant than others, (iii) and whether visions are more authoritative and guiding in retrospective of certain types of actors?
The BackCasting- Adaptive Management methodology as a methodological approach to support governme... more The BackCasting- Adaptive Management methodology as a methodological approach to support governments in establishing a pathway to sustainable intensification of agriculture