Petter Nesser | Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (original) (raw)
Papers by Petter Nesser
Perspectives on terrorism, 2015
Nesser, Petter; Hegghammer, Thomas. Assessing Islamic State’s Commitment to Attacking the West. P... more Nesser, Petter; Hegghammer, Thomas. Assessing Islamic State’s Commitment to Attacking the West. Perspectives on Terrorism 2015 ;Volum 9.(4) s. 14-30
Perspectives on Politics, 2019
How can vulnerable states adjacent to countries embroiled in civil war avoid conflict contagion? ... more How can vulnerable states adjacent to countries embroiled in civil war avoid conflict contagion? Jordan has all the classic attributes highlighted in the literature as creating vulnerabilities susceptible to spillover. It adjoins Syria and Iraq where jihadists have operated freely. It has a weak economy, refugees pouring in from adjacent conflicts and is home to hundreds-if not thousands-of jihadists. Moreover, jihadists consider the Jordanian regime to be traitors-who conspire with the enemies of Islam-and they want to replace it with an Islamic state. However, as we show, very few jihadist attacks have happened in Jordan. We test three hypotheses for the limited spillover. Our analysis suggests a state policy that we dub "calibrated repression" is the most significant explanation. This means that Jordan protects against spillover by repressing jihadist attempts at infiltrating the kingdom and clamping down on local terrorist cells linked to the Islamic State while keepin...
Perspectives on Terrorism, Dec 18, 2014
The article examines the extent to which Islamic State (IS) has affected jihadi terrorism in Euro... more The article examines the extent to which Islamic State (IS) has affected jihadi terrorism in Europe. We look at the scope of attack activity, perpetrators and their networks, modus operandi and funding. For all the talk of a new threat we argue that, apart from scope, less is new than most assume. IS wants largely the same as al-Qaida did by attacking Europe. Their tactics are similar and their networks overlap in time and space. The core dynamics of the threat endure. It is premature to talk of a new paradigm in recruitment, but more terrorists are instructed online than before. Patterns in funding remain relatively stable, but there is an increase in plots financed from abroad. Despite military setbacks, IS remains a formidable terrorist actor, with territorial control, economic muscle and thousands of Europeans in its ranks. These things, combined with the group's skillful social media usage, are exhausting European security services' capacities. So is the refugee situation, which is exploited by IS to transfer personnel. If IS's territorial control persists, we foresee attempts at large-scale operations, including attempts at using improvised chemical or radiological devices. If IS continues to lose ground, small-scale attacks by single actors will become even more frequent.
The lethal attacks in Paris in January and November 2015 demonstrated the threat posed by by mili... more The lethal attacks in Paris in
January and November 2015 demonstrated the threat posed by by militant
Islamist extremism in Europe. While
the death of Osama bin Laden and
the advent of the ‘Arab Spring’ fed
expectations that international jihadism
was a spent force, Europe is still facing
an increase in terrorist plotting. This
has led to growing security concerns
over the fallout of the Syrian conflict,
and the sizeable contingents of battlehardened
European foreign fighters.
This book provides a comprehensive
account of the rise of jihadi militancy
in Europe and offers a detailed
background for understanding the
current and future threat. Based on a
wide range of new primary sources,
it traces the phenomenon back to
the late 1980s, and the formation of
jihadi support networks in Europe in
the early 1990s. Combining analytical
rigour with empirical richness, the
book offers an extensive account of
patterns of terrorist cell formation
and plots between 1994 and 2015. In
contrast to existing research which
has emphasized social explanations,
failed immigration and homegrown
radicalism, this book highlights the
transnational aspects. It shows how
jihadi terrorism in Europe is intrinsically
linked to and reflects the ideological
agendas of armed organizations in
conflict zones, and how entrepreneurial
jihad-veterans facilitate such
transnationalization of militancy.
How much of a terrorist threat does the Islamic State (IS) pose to Western countries? This articl... more How much of a terrorist threat does the Islamic State (IS) pose to Western countries? This article looks at what IS has said and done with regard to attacks in the West. We examine IS statements and take stock of IS-related attack plots in Western Europe, North America, and Australia from January 2011 through June 2015 using a new dataset of jihadi plots and a new typology of links between organizations and attackers. IS appears to have had a decentralized attack strategy based on encouraging sympathiser attacks while not mounting centrally directed operations of their own. There have also been more plots involving only IS sympathisers than plots involving returned foreign fighters. However, the organization's formidable resources and verbal hints at future attacks give reason for vigilance.
This article provides the most thorough overview yet of how jihadis have plotted terrorist attack... more This article provides the most thorough overview yet of how jihadis have plotted terrorist attacks in Europe. Drawing on a database of 122 incidents, we review trends in weapon types, attack types and target types in the period 1994-2013. The overall finding is that jihadi terrorism in Europe is becoming more discriminate in its targeting while attack types and weapons are becoming progressively more diverse. The most likely scenarios in the coming three to five years are bomb attacks and armed assaults against sub-national entities, communities and individuals. A majority of the terrorist attacks will be limited in scope, but mass-casualty terrorism cannot be excluded. Foreign fighters from Syria are likely to influence the threat level in Europe, but we do not expect them to alter patterns in modus operandi dramatically.
Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift, Nr.4, 2014, s.399-416., 2014
Førsteamanuensis ved Institutt for kulturstudier og orientalske språk, Universitetet i Oslo. Pett... more Førsteamanuensis ved Institutt for kulturstudier og orientalske språk, Universitetet i Oslo. Petter Nesser petter.nesser@ffi.no Seniorforsker, Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt (FFI) Det framkommer stadig oftere avsløringer om avvergete terroraksjoner i Europa der de mistenkte har en forhistorie som fremmedkrigere i Midtøsten. Europeiske sikkerhetstjenester frykter at denne trenden vil fortsette, og Norge, som har en stor fremmedkrigerkontingent kontrollert for folketall, synes å vaere mer utsatt enn før. Dette urovekkende trusselbildet ble ytterligere forverret sommeren 2014 da pst «slo terroralarm» angivelig basert på rapporter om en forestående aksjon planlagt av jihadister i Syria.
Article gives historical background for the phenomenon of Norwegian Muslims going abroad to fight... more Article gives historical background for the phenomenon of Norwegian Muslims going abroad to fight other peoples' wars and discusses the "Syria effect" on the rise of Muslim extremism in Norway and the exodus of Norwegians to jihadi outfits in the conflict theater (in Norwegian)
This Research Note does three things. First, it takes a critical look at definitions, conceptuali... more This Research Note does three things. First, it takes a critical look at definitions, conceptualizations and empirical observations within the field of individual terrorism. Second, it presents and problematizes empirical surveys of so-called "lone wolf terrorists" and individual jihadist terrorists in Europe. Third, it discusses alternative theoretical arguments regarding the scope, characteristics and possible increase of single actor terrorism. Existing research indicates that single actor terrorism is likely to remain a relatively marginal phenomenon, but that attacks may become more sophisticated and deadly due to contagion and tactical diffusion via the Internet, mass media and social networks. Regardless, the analysis presented in the following reveals an acute need for clearer operationalizations and better data in the study of individualized terrorism.
Abū Qatāda "The Palestinian" is among the most influential ideologues of the salafijihadi movemen... more Abū Qatāda "The Palestinian" is among the most influential ideologues of the salafijihadi movement. Born in Palestine, Abū Qatāda grew up in the Jordanian capital Amman, spent time among jihadi guerrillas in Pakistan, and ended up a militant preacher in London. Over the last decade, while going in and out of prison accused of aiding international terrorism, Abū Qatāda has worked to define the theological basis of al-Qaida and likeminded movements. This article explores the Palestinian preacher's background, activism and ideological communication, focusing on the relationship with his land of origin. It finds that the jihadi thinker seems largely to have ignored his country of origin in both word and deed. This is counter-intuitive given that Abū Qatāda represents a movement presenting the liberation of Palestine as the heart of a worldwide armed holy struggle. However, jihadi ideologues tread a fine line between nationalism and worldliness on one hand, and transnational religious purism on the other.
The present report examines the terrorist threat to Norwegian water supplies. The new threat envi... more The present report examines the terrorist threat to Norwegian water supplies. The new threat environment in the post-9/11 era is explored and is followed by a global survey of nearly 50 terrorist and sabotage attacks against water supplies during the past thirty years, collected from various chronologies and databases.
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 2008
Perspectives on terrorism, 2015
Nesser, Petter; Hegghammer, Thomas. Assessing Islamic State’s Commitment to Attacking the West. P... more Nesser, Petter; Hegghammer, Thomas. Assessing Islamic State’s Commitment to Attacking the West. Perspectives on Terrorism 2015 ;Volum 9.(4) s. 14-30
Perspectives on Politics, 2019
How can vulnerable states adjacent to countries embroiled in civil war avoid conflict contagion? ... more How can vulnerable states adjacent to countries embroiled in civil war avoid conflict contagion? Jordan has all the classic attributes highlighted in the literature as creating vulnerabilities susceptible to spillover. It adjoins Syria and Iraq where jihadists have operated freely. It has a weak economy, refugees pouring in from adjacent conflicts and is home to hundreds-if not thousands-of jihadists. Moreover, jihadists consider the Jordanian regime to be traitors-who conspire with the enemies of Islam-and they want to replace it with an Islamic state. However, as we show, very few jihadist attacks have happened in Jordan. We test three hypotheses for the limited spillover. Our analysis suggests a state policy that we dub "calibrated repression" is the most significant explanation. This means that Jordan protects against spillover by repressing jihadist attempts at infiltrating the kingdom and clamping down on local terrorist cells linked to the Islamic State while keepin...
Perspectives on Terrorism, Dec 18, 2014
The article examines the extent to which Islamic State (IS) has affected jihadi terrorism in Euro... more The article examines the extent to which Islamic State (IS) has affected jihadi terrorism in Europe. We look at the scope of attack activity, perpetrators and their networks, modus operandi and funding. For all the talk of a new threat we argue that, apart from scope, less is new than most assume. IS wants largely the same as al-Qaida did by attacking Europe. Their tactics are similar and their networks overlap in time and space. The core dynamics of the threat endure. It is premature to talk of a new paradigm in recruitment, but more terrorists are instructed online than before. Patterns in funding remain relatively stable, but there is an increase in plots financed from abroad. Despite military setbacks, IS remains a formidable terrorist actor, with territorial control, economic muscle and thousands of Europeans in its ranks. These things, combined with the group's skillful social media usage, are exhausting European security services' capacities. So is the refugee situation, which is exploited by IS to transfer personnel. If IS's territorial control persists, we foresee attempts at large-scale operations, including attempts at using improvised chemical or radiological devices. If IS continues to lose ground, small-scale attacks by single actors will become even more frequent.
The lethal attacks in Paris in January and November 2015 demonstrated the threat posed by by mili... more The lethal attacks in Paris in
January and November 2015 demonstrated the threat posed by by militant
Islamist extremism in Europe. While
the death of Osama bin Laden and
the advent of the ‘Arab Spring’ fed
expectations that international jihadism
was a spent force, Europe is still facing
an increase in terrorist plotting. This
has led to growing security concerns
over the fallout of the Syrian conflict,
and the sizeable contingents of battlehardened
European foreign fighters.
This book provides a comprehensive
account of the rise of jihadi militancy
in Europe and offers a detailed
background for understanding the
current and future threat. Based on a
wide range of new primary sources,
it traces the phenomenon back to
the late 1980s, and the formation of
jihadi support networks in Europe in
the early 1990s. Combining analytical
rigour with empirical richness, the
book offers an extensive account of
patterns of terrorist cell formation
and plots between 1994 and 2015. In
contrast to existing research which
has emphasized social explanations,
failed immigration and homegrown
radicalism, this book highlights the
transnational aspects. It shows how
jihadi terrorism in Europe is intrinsically
linked to and reflects the ideological
agendas of armed organizations in
conflict zones, and how entrepreneurial
jihad-veterans facilitate such
transnationalization of militancy.
How much of a terrorist threat does the Islamic State (IS) pose to Western countries? This articl... more How much of a terrorist threat does the Islamic State (IS) pose to Western countries? This article looks at what IS has said and done with regard to attacks in the West. We examine IS statements and take stock of IS-related attack plots in Western Europe, North America, and Australia from January 2011 through June 2015 using a new dataset of jihadi plots and a new typology of links between organizations and attackers. IS appears to have had a decentralized attack strategy based on encouraging sympathiser attacks while not mounting centrally directed operations of their own. There have also been more plots involving only IS sympathisers than plots involving returned foreign fighters. However, the organization's formidable resources and verbal hints at future attacks give reason for vigilance.
This article provides the most thorough overview yet of how jihadis have plotted terrorist attack... more This article provides the most thorough overview yet of how jihadis have plotted terrorist attacks in Europe. Drawing on a database of 122 incidents, we review trends in weapon types, attack types and target types in the period 1994-2013. The overall finding is that jihadi terrorism in Europe is becoming more discriminate in its targeting while attack types and weapons are becoming progressively more diverse. The most likely scenarios in the coming three to five years are bomb attacks and armed assaults against sub-national entities, communities and individuals. A majority of the terrorist attacks will be limited in scope, but mass-casualty terrorism cannot be excluded. Foreign fighters from Syria are likely to influence the threat level in Europe, but we do not expect them to alter patterns in modus operandi dramatically.
Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift, Nr.4, 2014, s.399-416., 2014
Førsteamanuensis ved Institutt for kulturstudier og orientalske språk, Universitetet i Oslo. Pett... more Førsteamanuensis ved Institutt for kulturstudier og orientalske språk, Universitetet i Oslo. Petter Nesser petter.nesser@ffi.no Seniorforsker, Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt (FFI) Det framkommer stadig oftere avsløringer om avvergete terroraksjoner i Europa der de mistenkte har en forhistorie som fremmedkrigere i Midtøsten. Europeiske sikkerhetstjenester frykter at denne trenden vil fortsette, og Norge, som har en stor fremmedkrigerkontingent kontrollert for folketall, synes å vaere mer utsatt enn før. Dette urovekkende trusselbildet ble ytterligere forverret sommeren 2014 da pst «slo terroralarm» angivelig basert på rapporter om en forestående aksjon planlagt av jihadister i Syria.
Article gives historical background for the phenomenon of Norwegian Muslims going abroad to fight... more Article gives historical background for the phenomenon of Norwegian Muslims going abroad to fight other peoples' wars and discusses the "Syria effect" on the rise of Muslim extremism in Norway and the exodus of Norwegians to jihadi outfits in the conflict theater (in Norwegian)
This Research Note does three things. First, it takes a critical look at definitions, conceptuali... more This Research Note does three things. First, it takes a critical look at definitions, conceptualizations and empirical observations within the field of individual terrorism. Second, it presents and problematizes empirical surveys of so-called "lone wolf terrorists" and individual jihadist terrorists in Europe. Third, it discusses alternative theoretical arguments regarding the scope, characteristics and possible increase of single actor terrorism. Existing research indicates that single actor terrorism is likely to remain a relatively marginal phenomenon, but that attacks may become more sophisticated and deadly due to contagion and tactical diffusion via the Internet, mass media and social networks. Regardless, the analysis presented in the following reveals an acute need for clearer operationalizations and better data in the study of individualized terrorism.
Abū Qatāda "The Palestinian" is among the most influential ideologues of the salafijihadi movemen... more Abū Qatāda "The Palestinian" is among the most influential ideologues of the salafijihadi movement. Born in Palestine, Abū Qatāda grew up in the Jordanian capital Amman, spent time among jihadi guerrillas in Pakistan, and ended up a militant preacher in London. Over the last decade, while going in and out of prison accused of aiding international terrorism, Abū Qatāda has worked to define the theological basis of al-Qaida and likeminded movements. This article explores the Palestinian preacher's background, activism and ideological communication, focusing on the relationship with his land of origin. It finds that the jihadi thinker seems largely to have ignored his country of origin in both word and deed. This is counter-intuitive given that Abū Qatāda represents a movement presenting the liberation of Palestine as the heart of a worldwide armed holy struggle. However, jihadi ideologues tread a fine line between nationalism and worldliness on one hand, and transnational religious purism on the other.
The present report examines the terrorist threat to Norwegian water supplies. The new threat envi... more The present report examines the terrorist threat to Norwegian water supplies. The new threat environment in the post-9/11 era is explored and is followed by a global survey of nearly 50 terrorist and sabotage attacks against water supplies during the past thirty years, collected from various chronologies and databases.
Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 2008
Talking about radicalization of young Muslims in Europe, the French Islamologue, Olivier Roy, has... more Talking about radicalization of young Muslims in Europe, the French Islamologue, Olivier Roy, has argued that we tend to "over-ideologize al-Qaida in order to understand its attractiveness". He claims that "none of the arrested terrorists or suspects had Zawahiri or other books in their house". I politely disagree. My research on jihadism in Europe strongly suggests that leading activists did indeed care very much about ideology and were keen consumers of ideological tracts, including the works of al-Zawahiri.
