Christopher Olds | Fort Hays State University (original) (raw)

Papers by Christopher Olds

The Unorthodox Presidency of Donald J. Trump, 2021

The chapter examines whether an increase in the intensity of President Trump's number of tweets p... more The chapter examines whether an increase in the intensity of President Trump's number of tweets posted on Twitter each day increased equity market uncertainty. Scholarship on information overload is engaged with in the chapter.

Technium Social Sciences Journal, 2020

This study contrasts a publicly available measure of migration fears in the United States with a ... more This study contrasts a publicly available measure of migration fears in the United States with a publicly available measure of geopolitical risk, a barometer of concern about possible disruptions to peace in international relations. The time series analyses performed on information spanning between 1990 and 2019 suggest that a change in migration fears in the U.S. increases the level of geopolitical risk, such that the U.S. appears to perceive migrants as potentially threatening and responds with an aggressive posture in interactions with other nations. The findings of the study are aligned with theories in existing academic literature about fear-induced aggression and intergroup conflict.

Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 2020

The study evaluates whether there are limits to an excess in consumptive behaviors during periods... more The study evaluates whether there are limits to an excess in consumptive behaviors during periods where infectious disease outbreaks produce unpredictable changes in equity markets. While there is evidence of panic buying in these periods such that people increasingly acquire goods that they do not actually need, this does not mean that people will acquire items if their purchase has significant risk tied to them. Using time series information across 35 years, the empirical analyses show that people are less likely to think buying a home is a good idea due to change in the level of equity market volatility brought about by infectious diseases. Even though panic buying occurs during epidemics and pandemics, this is not an indication that decision-making about purchases is wholly irrational. In uncertain times when infectious disease outbreaks make equity markets unpredictable, people rationally seek to minimize the level of personal losses they experience as much as possible.

Research in Social Change, 2019

There is a long-standing discussion in the academic literature on whether presidential rhetoric m... more There is a long-standing discussion in the academic literature on whether presidential rhetoric mirrors or guides conditions in the sociopolitical environment. Scholars like Canes-Wrone (2001) and Edwards (2009) believe responsive presidential rhetoric that reflects what is happening in the sociopolitical environment is more likely to resonate with the public. This paper assesses whether presidents will heighten the usage of cheerleading rhetoric about the economy that uses a positive tone in response to changes in the housing market. The time series analyses of information available between 1963 to 2005 indicate presidents increase economic cheerleading in response to positive changes in the housing market.

Politics and Governance, 2015

Research from Shogan (2007) and Lim (2008) on the executive branch proposes that the American pre... more Research from Shogan (2007) and Lim (2008) on the executive branch proposes that the American presidency has adopted an anti-intellectual approach to leadership, such that there is a concerted rejection of thoughtful political discourse from the president. This has been reflected by what appears to be a relative decline in both the linguistic and substantive complexity of presidential rhetoric. Shogan's (2007) work, while focused on examining whether Republicans are more apt to employ anti-intellectual leadership than Democrats, raises an additional topic worthy of empirical examination: the potential relationship between anti-intellectual leadership and unilateral action from the president. If anti-intellectual leadership is a defiant form of leadership that opts to publicly demonstrate the rejection of external expertise, the usage of anti-intellectual rhetoric from the president might be able to predict the usage of unilateral action. On the other hand, anti-intellectual rhetoric might be used as a straightforward and quick means to explain unilateral action, such that change in the level of unilateral action can predict the usage of simplistic rhetoric. Unfortunately, no one has yet to empirically test whether rhetorical simplicity predicts unilateral action, unilateral action predicts rhetorical simplicity, or there is a multi-directional relationship present. This project makes an initial attempt to remedy this gap in the literature. The project contrasts the monthly average simplicity level of the presidential weekly public address with the monthly number of executive orders emanating from the executive branch, using information spanning between Feb-ruary 1993 and May 2015. The initial findings from the vector autoregression and moving average representation analyses suggest that prior change in rhetorical simplicity predicts the usage of executive orders, and that an increase in rhetorical simplicity helps produce an increase in the number of executive orders offered by the president.

The response of economic variables to changes in the policy ideology expressed through presidenti... more The response of economic variables to changes in the policy ideology expressed through presidential rhetoric is an area in need of extensive empirical exploration. An increase in liberal policy rhetoric can serve as an indicator of an executive branch that will, in general, attempt to increase government involvement in policy areas that have a significant bearing on the economy. Such policy rhetoric is a cue that should lower the extent of uncertainty about what the characteristics of economic policy will consist of. The recent development of a
historical indicator of economic policy uncertainty in the United States allows researchers to assess whether the style employed in presidential rhetoric has any bearing on the extent of economic policy uncertainty that is present in the socio-political environment. The vector autoregression time series analysis performed in this project suggests presidential ideological tone Granger-causes economic policy uncertainty. The moving average representation analysis indicates an increase in presidential rhetorical liberalism results in a decrease in the
economic policy uncertainty index for a period of time. Chief executives in the United States could be strategically expressing language supporting the expansion of federal government involvement in domestic affairs to mitigate the level of uncertainty about economic policy that is present in the socio-political environment.

Recent research by Baker et al. (2013) has created a historical indicator of economic policy unce... more Recent research by Baker et al. (2013) has created a historical indicator of economic policy uncertainty in the United States, based on an index score derived from content analyses of major U.S. newspapers. Empirical work using this measure has primarily focused on the economic consequences of shifts in economic policy uncertainty. The purpose of this project is to make the first empirical attempt at assessing whether changes in economic policy uncertainty have any role on the tone the President of the United States adopts when speaking about general economic conditions. Using the economic policy uncertainty information devised by Baker et al. (2013), and contrasting this with information about presidential rhetorical tone about the economy developed by Wood (2007), the vector autoregression analysis indicates prior levels of economic policy uncertainty Granger-causes current presidential rhetorical optimism about the economy. The moving average representation analysis suggests that an increase in the economic policy uncertainty index results in a decrease in presidential rhetorical optimism about the general economy.

Journal of Communications Research, 2014

Research on presidential rhetoric has noted the explicit communications strategy of simplifying t... more Research on presidential rhetoric has noted the explicit communications strategy of simplifying the language in presidential remarks to the public. Rhetorical simplification
removes in-depth political analysis and argumentation from executive branch communications. Research by Elvin T. Lim (2008) shows that presidential rhetoric that is linguistically simplified is also substantively simplified language. Linguistically and substantively simplified language can be interpreted to mean the political environment is
lacking complications or difficulties. Simplified presidential rhetoric has the potential to encourage people to perceive there is no need for an expansion in government involvement in domestic affairs. As an initial attempt to assess this possibility, time series analyses of presidential rhetorical simplicity and public opinion in the United States are
performed using quarterly information spanning between 1993 and 2011.

American Journal of Medical Research, Oct 1, 2014

This project evaluates whether change in the level of economic policy uncertainty has implication... more This project evaluates whether change in the level of economic policy uncertainty has implications on the search for information about condoms in the United States. Economic policy uncertainty raises questions about the current and prospective characteristics of government policy about the economy. The potentially negative implications of economic policy uncertainty on the financial security and well-being of citizens should encourage risk-averse decision-making. An increase in economic policy uncertainty then should compel many members of the public to consider the potential costs involved in experiencing unintended pregnancies and/or sexually transmitted infections. As a result, the proposal of this project is that an increase in economic policy uncertainty results in an increase in the search for information on the Internet about condoms. The empirical analyses conduct vector autoregression and moving average representation time series analyses of monthly information spanning between 2004 and 2013 about the economic policy uncertainty index developed by Baker, Bloom & Davis (2013), and the volume of Internet search interest reported by Google Trends about condoms. The results provide evidence that prior change in economic policy uncertainty predicts the current search interest level about condoms, such that higher economic policy uncertainty increases search interest about condoms. While prior research has focused on the behaviors of business firms when exploring the consequences of economic policy uncertainty, the research findings seen here give an indication that economic policy uncertainty can also have a role in the decision-making process of the mass public regarding personal health choices.

The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Jun 30, 2014

Recent efforts by Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2013) make it possible to evaluate whether changes in ... more Recent efforts by Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2013) make it possible to evaluate whether changes in economic policy uncertainty have any bearing on the actions taken by political officials. This current project assesses whether economic policy uncertainty in the United States compels the U.S. president to increase the linguistic and substantive simplicity of public remarks. In an attempt to either decrease rising economic policy uncertainty, or stop the occurrence of economic policy uncertainty altogether, the president can choose to discuss issues in a very simple way. Time series analyses of monthly information spanning between 1993 and 2013 indicate that an increase in the economic policy uncertainty index results in an increase in presidential rhetorical simplicity. This provides an initial indication that the rhetorical strategy of linguistic and substantive simplicity employed by presidents can be shaped by economic conditions.

Research on presidential agenda setting has rarely attempted to simultaneously assess the ability... more Research on presidential agenda setting has rarely attempted to simultaneously assess the ability of the president to influence the policy agendas of the mass media and the public. This is primarily due to the lack of time-refined measures of public issue attention.

A long-standing curiosity in the presidency literature is whether the chief executive has the cap... more A long-standing curiosity in the presidency literature is whether the chief executive has the capacity to persuade the public. The president often seems unsuccessful at rhetorical leadership efforts to direct public opinion. In particular, presidential issue rhetoric expressing an ideological viewpoint on policy issues appears to shape the public's policy preferences only when specific contextual conditions exist in the political environment. This current project proposes that moral rhetoric, a more simplified form of issue discussion engaging with widely held and fundamental values in an accessible way, should be more effective at consistently directing public issue attitudes in a direction congruent with the views of the president. In contrasting the dynamics of presidential usage of moral rhetoric expressing liberal issue positions and public policy mood for liberal domestic policies between 1960 and 2008, the analysis finds even a specialized form of presidential issue discussion like moral rhetoric struggles to guide public opinion.

Research has not yet explored whether the misery index or presidential rhetorical optimism about ... more Research has not yet explored whether the misery index or presidential rhetorical optimism about economic conditions can shape public opinion about the appropriate level of government involvement in domestic affairs in the United States. The time series analyses preformed here suggest prior change in the misery index and presidential rhetorical optimism about the economy produce shifts in public opinion, although the magnitude of the shift following changes in the misery index appears to be less substantial than the shift following changes in presidential rhetorical optimism about the economy.

Despite an increase in the dissemination and consumption of Spanish-language media within the Uni... more Despite an increase in the dissemination and consumption of Spanish-language media within the United States, scholarly research has not evaluated in a systematic way interactions between the President of the United States and Spanish-language media. A clear example of this is the lack of analysis as to whether an increase in presidential rhetorical attention to an issue increases the level of attention to that issue in Spanishlanguage media outlets. As an initial attempt to remedy this gap in the literature, this project analyzes monthly time series information about presidential attention, as well as Spanish-language and English-language news outlet attention to several issues (crime, education, and immigration). The findings indicate that the president struggles to guide and heighten attention to issues in a prominent Spanish-language news media outlet, La Opinión.

Traditional studies of policy diffusion amongst states are deficient because they do not consider... more Traditional studies of policy diffusion amongst states are deficient because they do not consider the possibility that states adopt the policies of those that appear to experience desired policy outcomes. The predominant belief is that policy emulation occurs because decision makers defer to other states possessing certain similarities with their state. This shorthand policy learning does not require observation of policy outcomes. Nonetheless, the results of this paper suggest that states are more likely to adopt policing policies of other states if they are perceived to be successful in reducing the number of violent crimes performed compared to years past.

Contact theory has primarily been applied to the study of interactions between Blacks and Whites,... more Contact theory has primarily been applied to the study of interactions between Blacks and Whites, with particular emphasis on changes in the attitudes of Whites towards Blacks. How individual contact with an out-group can influence not just attitudes, but also actual behavior, has not been thoroughly explored. Through an analysis of the 2006 Latino National Survey, using a measure that contrasts the intensity of individual social interaction with various ethnic and racial groups, the study shows that a high intensity of friendly social contact with African-Americans increases the likelihood Latino immigrants will establish a closer link to the social and political structures of the United States. Latino immigrants are potentially experiencing movement towards deprovincialization through high levels of friendly social interaction with African-Americans. The development of friendly personal interactions with an out-group stigmatized in the mother country can help Latino immigrants develop an optimistic view of life in the host country.

Purpose -The imposition of term limits in bicameral (two-chamber) state legislatures could produc... more Purpose -The imposition of term limits in bicameral (two-chamber) state legislatures could produce unforeseen consequences in the policymaking process. Supporters of term limit rules have not considered that their imposition could fundamentally shift the sequence of policymaking in legislatures. This is important given that research on sequential bicameral policymaking suggests qualities of the lower chamber allow it to cultivate policy expertise such that the upper chamber will defer to the lower chamber in policymaking. This project aims to explore whether this proposed policymaking sequence exists in term-limited states.