Samuel Bodily | The University of Virginia (original) (raw)

Papers by Samuel Bodily

This case provides an explanation of a Lotus worksheet built to implement exponential smoothing f... more This case provides an explanation of a Lotus worksheet built to implement exponential smoothing for the data in "Wachovia Bank and Trust Company, N.A. (B): Piedmont Operations Center Scheduling" (UVA-OM-0664).

This case series brings together the evaluation of operating options and financial hedging. An el... more This case series brings together the evaluation of operating options and financial hedging. An electric power plant has several hourly operating alternatives, and a decision model is used to evaluate profit opportunities and decide among those options for fuel and operating level given the available capacity, which is in itself uncertain. The decision tree for these operating decisions is embedded

Effective organizational use of decision analysis goes far beyond having individuals in the organ... more Effective organizational use of decision analysis goes far beyond having individuals in the organization who know how to do decision analysis. In this note, we consider three activities that are key to creating value for the organization: making excellent choices, actually bringing about change, and operating effectively with new choices. We recommend a process that involves lacing together a decision board and a project team as they work together through six work steps. The process is focused on alternative generation, evaluation, and implementation, and is grounded in decision analysis. Tools for creativity enhancement and structuring of analysis are crucial to success; much of this note is about creativity. Collaborative efforts to frame the assessment of risk and make explicit value trade-offs are integral to the process. Riskmanagement techniques expand the set of alternatives to add value and reduce risk. Companies and consultants have been very successful with this process. 1

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadshee... more No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by any means-electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise-without the permission of the Darden School Foundation.

This case describes a multiattribute decision analysis done for Mr. Taylor (see QA-0241).

This supplement to "Ponca City Cogeneration Plant" (UVA-QA-0469) provides information o... more This supplement to "Ponca City Cogeneration Plant" (UVA-QA-0469) provides information on the various factors that contribute to the risk of the project. An electric utility faces the hard choice between losing its third-largest customer and building a cogeneration plant that is very risky and appears to take value away from the firm. Students must first assess the utility's strategic position and the magnitude of the risk, in the process improving the assumptions of the discounted-cash-flow spreadsheet model available to them. The task is then to be shrewd and creative in reducing and managing the risk of the project, which, after all, is manageable.

A real-estate broker wishes to develop a model to be used by a sophisticated buyer to analyze the... more A real-estate broker wishes to develop a model to be used by a sophisticated buyer to analyze the financial characteristics of a large estate. This case raises several issues, including risk in long-term investments, selection of a time horizon, determination of a salvage value, and general modeling choices.

This technical note considers how one makes choices in situations where there are multiple object... more This technical note considers how one makes choices in situations where there are multiple objectives and attributes that measure performance against these objectives. In some instances, given attributes may be important because they measure impacts of a choice on specific stakeholders. The note considers elimination of alternatives by aspects, dominance, and some decision rules that do not require compensatory trade-offs (lexicographic, satisficing). Methods for "rate and weight" (linear additive scoring rules) are described and illustrated.

In the B case, the initial results from a Monte Carlo simulation seem to conflict with the critic... more In the B case, the initial results from a Monte Carlo simulation seem to conflict with the critical-fractile result obtained earlier. The manager must figure out why and then make a decision. See also the A case (UVA-QA-0339).

These three caselets provide practice using risk preference and utility, with both exponential ut... more These three caselets provide practice using risk preference and utility, with both exponential utility (constant risk aversion) and logarithmic utility (decreasing risk aversion). The second caselet is an extension of "Integrated Siting Systems, Inc." (UVA-QA-0441). Students may use TreePlan to conduct a sensitivity analysis of risk tolerance, and can employ Solver to find optimal risk sharing. Students will learn concepts and garner insights regarding portfolio risk in making investments, how intangibles can affect evaluation of risk, and how expected utility can exploit risk sharing.

This case builds on the case "Merck & Company: Product KL-798" (UVA-QA-0582) by providi... more This case builds on the case "Merck & Company: Product KL-798" (UVA-QA-0582) by providing market uncertainties for the drug (drug quality, the presence of a competitor, market growth, and the time to the drug's release). Details and spreadsheets are provided for the calculation of net present values for the scenarios. There is an additional challenge of how to treat the several downstream decisions (using OptQuest, for example) and how to value the license opportunity.

The task is to prepare a sealed bid against one opponent for a hotel that has an appraised value ... more The task is to prepare a sealed bid against one opponent for a hotel that has an appraised value and a specific, higher value to our company. We have data about the ratio of bids of the other bidder to appraised value in similar sealed bids. The intent is to dispel many unfounded notions of how to bid and to develop a strategic approach to finding the best bid.

This case provides an explanation of a Lotus worksheet built to implement exponential smoothing f... more This case provides an explanation of a Lotus worksheet built to implement exponential smoothing for the data in "Wachovia Bank and Trust Company, N.A. (B): Piedmont Operations Center Scheduling" (UVA-OM-0664).

This case series brings together the evaluation of operating options and financial hedging. An el... more This case series brings together the evaluation of operating options and financial hedging. An electric power plant has several hourly operating alternatives, and a decision model is used to evaluate profit opportunities and decide among those options for fuel and operating level given the available capacity, which is in itself uncertain. The decision tree for these operating decisions is embedded

Effective organizational use of decision analysis goes far beyond having individuals in the organ... more Effective organizational use of decision analysis goes far beyond having individuals in the organization who know how to do decision analysis. In this note, we consider three activities that are key to creating value for the organization: making excellent choices, actually bringing about change, and operating effectively with new choices. We recommend a process that involves lacing together a decision board and a project team as they work together through six work steps. The process is focused on alternative generation, evaluation, and implementation, and is grounded in decision analysis. Tools for creativity enhancement and structuring of analysis are crucial to success; much of this note is about creativity. Collaborative efforts to frame the assessment of risk and make explicit value trade-offs are integral to the process. Riskmanagement techniques expand the set of alternatives to add value and reduce risk. Companies and consultants have been very successful with this process. 1

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadshee... more No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by any means-electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise-without the permission of the Darden School Foundation.

This case describes a multiattribute decision analysis done for Mr. Taylor (see QA-0241).

This supplement to "Ponca City Cogeneration Plant" (UVA-QA-0469) provides information o... more This supplement to "Ponca City Cogeneration Plant" (UVA-QA-0469) provides information on the various factors that contribute to the risk of the project. An electric utility faces the hard choice between losing its third-largest customer and building a cogeneration plant that is very risky and appears to take value away from the firm. Students must first assess the utility's strategic position and the magnitude of the risk, in the process improving the assumptions of the discounted-cash-flow spreadsheet model available to them. The task is then to be shrewd and creative in reducing and managing the risk of the project, which, after all, is manageable.

A real-estate broker wishes to develop a model to be used by a sophisticated buyer to analyze the... more A real-estate broker wishes to develop a model to be used by a sophisticated buyer to analyze the financial characteristics of a large estate. This case raises several issues, including risk in long-term investments, selection of a time horizon, determination of a salvage value, and general modeling choices.

This technical note considers how one makes choices in situations where there are multiple object... more This technical note considers how one makes choices in situations where there are multiple objectives and attributes that measure performance against these objectives. In some instances, given attributes may be important because they measure impacts of a choice on specific stakeholders. The note considers elimination of alternatives by aspects, dominance, and some decision rules that do not require compensatory trade-offs (lexicographic, satisficing). Methods for "rate and weight" (linear additive scoring rules) are described and illustrated.

In the B case, the initial results from a Monte Carlo simulation seem to conflict with the critic... more In the B case, the initial results from a Monte Carlo simulation seem to conflict with the critical-fractile result obtained earlier. The manager must figure out why and then make a decision. See also the A case (UVA-QA-0339).

These three caselets provide practice using risk preference and utility, with both exponential ut... more These three caselets provide practice using risk preference and utility, with both exponential utility (constant risk aversion) and logarithmic utility (decreasing risk aversion). The second caselet is an extension of "Integrated Siting Systems, Inc." (UVA-QA-0441). Students may use TreePlan to conduct a sensitivity analysis of risk tolerance, and can employ Solver to find optimal risk sharing. Students will learn concepts and garner insights regarding portfolio risk in making investments, how intangibles can affect evaluation of risk, and how expected utility can exploit risk sharing.

This case builds on the case "Merck & Company: Product KL-798" (UVA-QA-0582) by providi... more This case builds on the case "Merck & Company: Product KL-798" (UVA-QA-0582) by providing market uncertainties for the drug (drug quality, the presence of a competitor, market growth, and the time to the drug's release). Details and spreadsheets are provided for the calculation of net present values for the scenarios. There is an additional challenge of how to treat the several downstream decisions (using OptQuest, for example) and how to value the license opportunity.

The task is to prepare a sealed bid against one opponent for a hotel that has an appraised value ... more The task is to prepare a sealed bid against one opponent for a hotel that has an appraised value and a specific, higher value to our company. We have data about the ratio of bids of the other bidder to appraised value in similar sealed bids. The intent is to dispel many unfounded notions of how to bid and to develop a strategic approach to finding the best bid.