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Papers by Stig Stenslie

Xi Jinping's Power and Powerlessness: Leadership Challenges in the Implementation of China's New ... more Xi Jinping's Power and Powerlessness: Leadership Challenges in the Implementation of China's New Economic Model Xi Jinping is assumed to be China's strongest leader since Deng Xiaoping-even since Mao, some argue. It might therefore be expected that Xi Jinping, at the top of a oneparty state, has the power and ability to reform China. This article analyses how structural constraints limit Xi Jinping's power and freedom of action using his ability to implement a new course for the country's economic policy as case. To avoid being caught in the middle-income trap, China must adjust its investment and export-driven model to a more innovation, consumer and welfare-based development model. We use the school of historical institutionalism as framework, and examine how (i) path dependency, (ii) informal structures, norms and values, (iii) institutional autonomy, and (iv) institutional capacity in different ways limit and constrain the power and ability of Xi Jinping to implement a successful restructuring of the country's economic model.

Politics, Religion & Ideology, Aug 3, 2023

NOREF Policy Brief, Mar 1, 2013

International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence

In Xi Jinping’s China, the top leadership is getting even more closed, whereas their decisions ca... more In Xi Jinping’s China, the top leadership is getting even more closed, whereas their decisions carry ever more global weight. Ahead of the Chinese Communist Party’s highly important 20th National Congress to be held in the late autumn of 2022, the eyes of the global Intelligence Community are turning to Beijing. How to divine what exactly is going on in the black box of Chinese elite politics at this sensitive moment? This is the million-dollar-question facing analysts of Chinese politics. We argue that there is a gap asking to be bridged between the “art” and “science” of reading Chinese elite politics, or between on the one hand, the traditional Beijingology, and on the other hand, purely academically relevant research. There is a pressing need for a “Beijingology 2.0,” combining the traditional art of the China hands with the most innovative methods and tools derived from social science research into elite studies and text analysis, respectively.

Internasjonal Politikk, 2022

Internasjonal politikk, 2022

Stig Stenslie (Senter for etterretningsstudier, Etterretningsskolen) anmelder de tre følgende bøk... more Stig Stenslie (Senter for etterretningsstudier, Etterretningsskolen) anmelder de tre følgende bøkene: The Problem of Secret Intelligence av Kjetil Anders Hatlebrekke (Edinburgh University Press, 2019); Intelligence Oversight in the Twenty-First Century, redigert av Ian Leigh og Njord Wegge (Routledge, 2019); og Intelligence Relations in the 21st Century, redigert av Tom Røseth og John Michael Weaver (Palgrave Macmillan, 2020).

International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 2022

The Washington Quarterly, 2018

Babylon Nordic Journal of Middle East Studies, 2016

Hvilke roller spiller saudiske kvinner i militante bevegelser? Hvordan kan vi forstå at stadig fl... more Hvilke roller spiller saudiske kvinner i militante bevegelser? Hvordan kan vi forstå at stadig flere kvinner det siste tiåret har engasjert seg innenfor slike bevegelser?

Asian Politics & Policy, 2014

While a wave of revolutions rolled over the Arab world during the spring of 2011, Saudi Arabia wa... more While a wave of revolutions rolled over the Arab world during the spring of 2011, Saudi Arabia was frequently mentioned as an exception. The unrest apparently never reached the kingdom. But even though few Saudis took to the streets, there was in fact a more extensive political awakening in the kingdom-in the online sphere. Media organizations and activities in Saudi Arabia are strictly regulated by the ruling Al Saud regime, especially with regard to political topics of high sensitivity. This became particularly apparent when the uprisings started. While the state-controlled media were carefully presenting Al Saud's stand on developments, many people embraced social media, which were telling another story. The use of social media has since exploded, and it is now the primary arena for political debate in the kingdom. This article tries to briefly examine media as a means of political opposition and struggle for rights and liberties in Saudi Arabia.

Internasjonal Politikk, 2016

Etter flere tiår med rask økonomisk vekst satser en rekke stater i Asia-og Stillehavsområdet på å... more Etter flere tiår med rask økonomisk vekst satser en rekke stater i Asia-og Stillehavsområdet på å utvikle sterkere militaermakt. I denne artikkelen hevdes det at det nå foregår flere våpenkappløp i regionen. Våpenkappløpene skjer på flere militaere og militaerteknologiske områder og mellom ulike kombinasjoner av stater. Et fellestrekk er imidlertid at de er drevet fram av et Kina som ikke bare har vokst seg sterkere, men som også uroer sine naboer på grunn av en mer selvhevdende atferd og en økende satsning på offensive militaere kapabiliteter. Våpenkappløpene er ikke like intense som for eksempel det klassiske «Dreadnought-kappløpet» mellom Tyskland og Storbritannia, men de gir like fullt grunnlag for bekymring over det framtidige sikkerhetspolitiske klimaet i Asia-og Stillehavsområdet.

Internasjonal Politikk, 2016

Internasjonal Politikk, 2015

China an Inter, 2014

China’s contemporary leadership does not have a “grand strategy” for the 21st century and it is u... more China’s contemporary leadership does not have a “grand strategy” for the 21st century and it is unlikely that the new leaders, who came into power in 2012–13, will be able to craft one. This is a viewpoint that goes against the established truth about China’s comeback as a great power in the international arena. China observers concur and to some extent admire the Chinese leadership’s ability to think long term and commitment to patiently work towards the realisation of a grand vision for the “Middle Kingdom”. There is, undoubtedly, a great deal of strategic thinking going on in China, but it has not been translated into any coherent strategy. Today’s Chinese leaders are pragmatists, seeing and seizing every opportunity that arises without a binding plan. They are also introverted, however, and forced to engage in short-term fire-fighting rather than think long term.

The Crisis of Citizenship in the Arab World

Politics, Religion & Ideology, Aug 3, 2023

NOREF Policy Brief, Mar 1, 2013

International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence

Internasjonal Politikk, 2022

Internasjonal politikk, 2022

International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, 2022

The Washington Quarterly, 2018

Babylon Nordic Journal of Middle East Studies, 2016

Asian Politics & Policy, 2014

Internasjonal Politikk, 2016

Internasjonal Politikk, 2015

China an Inter, 2014

The Crisis of Citizenship in the Arab World

L.S.P. Forlag, 2010

Saudi-Arabia Inc. gir innblikk i de ulike mekanismene som holder kongefamilien ved makten. Siden... more Saudi-Arabia Inc. gir innblikk i de ulike mekanismene som holder kongefamilien ved makten. Siden dets opprettelse i 1932 har vestlige observatører gjentatte ganger spådd kongedømmets fall. Tronfølge, fall i oljeprisen, krig og terror setter alltid fart på dommedagsprofetiene. Likevel har regimet forblitt blant de mest stabile i Midtøsten, og står i så måte i skarp kontrast til de turbulente nabolandene. Sa‘ud-regimets stabilitet er av essensiell betydning langt utenfor kongdømmets grenser, både med tanke på utviklingen i den muslimske verden og det internasjonale energimarkedet. Kombinasjonen av flere forhold forklarer regimets stabilitet. De viktigste forholdene er samholdet innad i Sa‘ud-familien, islam som kilde til politisk legitimitet, oljeinntekter og alliansen med USA.

Routledge, 2011

This book examines the structure of political power amongst elites inside Saudi Arabia and how th... more This book examines the structure of political power amongst elites inside Saudi Arabia and how they might cope with the very serious challenge posed by succession. Presenting a new and refreshing theoretical approach that links elite integration with regime stability, the author shows that the kingdom’s royal elite is far more integrated than it has generally been given credit for.
Based on extensive field work inside Saudi Arabia, the book offers a detailed, up-to-date survey and assessment of all the key sectors of the elites in the country. The author examines how the succession process has been used in highly different circumstances - including deposition, assassination, and death by old age - and demonstrates how regime stability in Saudi Arabia rests on the royal family’s ability to unite and to solve the challenge of succession. He offers a strong analysis of intra-ruling family mechanisms and dynamics in this notoriously private royal family, and addresses the question of whether, as the number of royals rapidly grows, the elite is able to remain integrated.
Providing a rare insight into the issues facing the royal family and ruling elite in Saudi Arabia, this book will be of great interest to scholars and students of Middle Eastern politics, and Saudi Arabia in particular.

Fagbokforlaget, 2007

Sett utenfra fremstår politikk i Midtøsten som forvirrende, kaotisk og ofte voldelig. Mediene ska... more Sett utenfra fremstår politikk i Midtøsten som forvirrende, kaotisk og ofte voldelig. Mediene skaper et bilde av Midtøsten som preges av krig, religiøs ekstremisme, terror, uforutsigbarhet og raske omveltninger. Men er regionen virkelig så ustabil?

Stabilitetens pris setter den populære oppfatningen på hodet og viser at stabilitet faktisk er et fremtredende trekk ved Midtøsten-politikk: Med stabilitet menes regimestabilitet som har preget regionen siden 1970. I tråd med denne observasjonen reiser boka tre viktige spørsmål: Hvordan har regimene i Midtøsten festet sitt grep om makten? Hvilke følger har regimenes maktstrategier for den politiske og sosioøkonomiske utviklingen? Og hvilke krefter truer regimene i dag? Spørsmålene belyses gjennom et bredt spekter av tema: relasjonene mellom samfunn og stat, ideologi og legitimitet, statsmaktens organisering, og perspektiver for fremtiden i form av demokratisering eller sammenbrudd. Hvert tema utdypes gjennom landeksempler hentet fra Jemen, Iran, Marokko, Egypt, Oman, Syria, Irak og Saudi-Arabia.

Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2014

Communism is dead in China. “China Inc.” is buying up the world. China has the United States ove... more Communism is dead in China. “China Inc.” is buying up the world. China has the United States over a barrel. The Chinese are just copycats. China is an environmental baddie, China is colonizing Africa. Mao was a monster. The end of the Communist regime is near. The 21st century belongs to China. Or does it? Marte Kjær Galtung and Stig Stenslie highlight 49 prevalent myths about China’s past, present, and future and weigh their truth or fiction. Leading an enlightening and entertaining tour, the authors debunk widespread “knowledge” about Chinese culture, society, politics, and economy. In some cases, Chinese themselves encourage mistaken impressions. But many of these myths are really about how we Westerners see ourselves, inasmuch as China or the Chinese people are depicted as what we are not. Western perceptions of the empire in the East have for centuries oscillated between sinophilia and sinophobia, influenced by historical changes in the West as much as by events in China. This timely and provocative book offers an engaging and compelling window on a rising power we often misunderstand.

Fagbokforlaget, 2019

I den digitale tid fremstår internasjonal politikk som stadig mer omskiftelig og kompleks. Teknol... more I den digitale tid fremstår internasjonal politikk som stadig mer omskiftelig og kompleks. Teknologiutviklingen generelt, og digitaliseringsprosesser spesielt, har utvidet staters og ikke-statlige aktørers handlingsrom. Dette gjør etterretning mer relevant enn noensinne for de som skal styre Norge.

Hvordan arbeide med etterretningsanalyse i den digitale tid?

Hva slags type spørsmål vil oppdragsgivere ha svar på?

Hvilke metoder og verktøy kan en analytiker støtte seg til?

Hvordan varsle om dagens subtile trusler?

Hvordan fange oppmerksomheten til travle beslutningstakere?

Hvilke særskilte utfordringer er knyttet til politisering og etikk i den digitale tid?

Dette er blant de spørsmålene som drøftes i Etterretningsanalyse i den digitale tid.

Boka vil forberede dagens og morgendagens etterretningsanalytikere på de utfordringer som venter i møte med et stadig mer komplekst trusselbilde.

I B Taurus, 2011

In this ground-breaking book, aimed at new generation of students, Stig Stenslie and Kjetil Selvi... more In this ground-breaking book, aimed at new generation of students, Stig Stenslie and Kjetil Selvik provide a new introduction to the contemporary Middle East, using topical questions about stability and change as a way of interrogating the politics, economics and history of the region. How have regimes from North Africa to the Gulf perpetuated themselves in spite of the weakness of the Western-style state, the Islamist trend, and the destabilising effects of war and terrorism? What strategies have states used to control their societies, and how have both states and societies adapted over time? Both an accessible reference resource and a thought-provoking analysis, Stability and Change in the Modern Middle East introduces the key theoretical concepts for understanding the region and the freshest thinking on debates surrounding them, and brings the empirical material in to sharp focus through its unique thematic approach.

Routledge, 2012

Based on extensive field work inside Saudi Arabia, the book offers a detailed, up-to-date survey and assessment of all the key sectors of the elites in the country. The author examines how the succession process has been used in highly different circumstances - including deposition, assassination, and death by old age - and demonstrates how regime stability in Saudi Arabia rests on the royal family’s ability to unite and to solve the challenge of succession. He offers a strong analysis of intra-ruling family mechanisms and dynamics in this notoriously private royal family, and addresses the question of whether, as the number of royals rapidly grows, the elite is able to remain integrated.

Providing a rare insight into the issues facing the royal family and ruling elite in Saudi Arabia, this book will be of great interest to scholars and students of Middle Eastern politics, and Saudi Arabia in particular.

Table of Contents
1. Introduction 2. Elite Integration and Regime Stability 3. The Royal Strategic Elite 4. Non-Royal Segment Elites 5. Mechanisms of Elite Integration 6. The Challenge of Succession 7. Conclusion. Appendices

Routledge, 2021

This book examines intelligence analysis in the digital age and demonstrates how intelligence has... more This book examines intelligence analysis in the digital age and demonstrates how intelligence has entered a new era.

While intelligence is an ancient activity, the digital age is a relatively new phenomenon. This volume uses the concept of the "digital age" to highlight the increased change, complexity, and pace of information that is now circulated, as new technology has reduced the time it takes to spread news to almost nothing. These factors mean that decision-makers face an increasingly challenging threat environment, which in turn increases the demand for timely, relevant, and reliable intelligence to support policymaking. In this context, the book demonstrates that intelligence places greater demands on analysis work, as the traditional intelligence cycle is no longer adequate as a process description. In the digital age, it is not enough to accumulate as much information as possible to gain a better understanding of the world. To meet customers’ needs, the intelligence process must be centred around the analysis work – which in turn has increased the demand for analysts. Assessments, not least predictions, are now just as important as revealing someone else’s secrets.

This volume will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, security studies, and international relations.

Universitetsforlaget, 2022

Xi Jinping er en av verdens mest innflytelsesrike politiske ledere. Mytene om ham er mange. Men h... more Xi Jinping er en av verdens mest innflytelsesrike politiske ledere. Mytene om ham er mange. Men hvem er han? Og hva er egentlig hans politiske prosjekt for Kina?

Under Xi har Kina blitt en global supermakt som utfordrer USAs rolle og er et land Norge i stadig større grad føler på tennene. Samtidig har Xi sentralisert og monopolisert makt på hjemmebane på en måte ingen har klart i Kina siden Mao. Hans kontroll over det politiske apparatet, rettsvesenet, sikkerhetstjenestene og mediene er nærmest absolutt, og landet har de siste årene utviklet seg raskt i en stadig mer autoritær retning.

Observatører som har fulgt Kina tett, har blitt overrasket over retningen landet har tatt under Xi. Under Kulturrevolusjonen ble Xis familie utstøtt og forfulgt. Allerede som barn erfarte han hva det ville si å få en hard behandling av partiet. Mange forventet derfor en pragmatisk og reformorientert leder da Xi kom til makten. I stedet har Xi vist seg som det motsatte: en ekstremt partitro og autoritær leder som ikke skyr noen midler i kampen for å revitalisere den kommunistiske revolusjon.

For å forstå Kina i dag er det helt nødvendig å forstå Xi Jinping. I denne boka bruker forfatterne Xis liv som prisme for å forstå landets politiske utvikling de siste ti årene. I hvilken retning går Kina, og hva har det å si for kinesere flest - og verden for øvrig?