Ibrahym Jaf | FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, MINNA-NIGERIA (original) (raw)
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Papers by Ibrahym Jaf
Natural Hazards, Jan 1, 2010
For risk analyses not only knowledge about the impact of different types of hazards, but also inf... more For risk analyses not only knowledge about the impact of different types of hazards, but also information about the elements and values at risk is necessary. This article introduces a methodology for a countrywide estimation of asset values for commercial and industrial properties using Germany as an example. It consists of a financial appraisal of asset values on the municipal level and a further disaggregation by means of land use data. Novelties are the distinction of 60 economic activities, the consideration of production site sizes and the application of a dasymetric mapping technique for a sector-specific estimation and disaggregation of asset values. A validation with empirical data confirms the feasibility of the calculation. The resulting maps can be used for loss estimations e.g. in the framework of cost–benefit analyses that aim to evaluate hazard mitigation measures or for portfolio analyses by banks and insurance companies. The approach can be used for other countries if the necessary data is available (mainly in industrialized countries). In any case, it reveals the critical points when estimating commercial and industrial asset values.
Journal of Risk and Insurance, Jan 1, 2006
This paper is preliminary and confidential and may not be reproduced or quoted without the author... more This paper is preliminary and confidential and may not be reproduced or quoted without the authors' permission.
Journal of Financial Services Research, Jan 1, 2011
This paper examines the relationship between mergers & acquisitions (M & As), diversification and... more This paper examines the relationship between mergers & acquisitions (M & As), diversification and financial performance in the U.S. property-liability insurance industry over the period 1989–2004. The risk-adjusted return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), Z-score and total risk measured by earnings volatility are considered as a relevant indicator of performance. We find that acquirers’ financial performance decreases and earnings volatility increases during the gestation period after the M & As perhaps due to increased frictional costs associated with post-merger integration and agency problems. We find that more focused insurers outperform the product-diversified insurers, implying that the costs of diversification outweigh the benefits. These findings are robust to alternative risk and diversification measures. We also find that marginal increases in commercial line share are associated with higher risk-adjusted profits, but these gains are offset by the extra costs from product diversity when its initial share is low. For insurers initially concentrated in commercial line, a marginal increase in commercial line share is related to higher performance due to positive effects of both direct exposure and indirect focus.
Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Jan 1, 2006
We analyze abnormal premium growth surrounding changes in A.M. Best Company financial strength ra... more We analyze abnormal premium growth surrounding changes in A.M. Best Company financial strength ratings for a large panel of property/casualty insurers during 1992-1999. Control group comparisons and regression estimates generally indicate economically and statistically significant premium declines in the year of and the year following rating downgrades. Consistent with greater risk sensitivity of demand, the premium declines were concentrated among commercial insurance, which has less complete guaranty fund protection than personal insurance. The premium declines were greater for firms with relatively low pre-downgrade ratings, and particularly pronounced for firms falling below an A-rating. We find no evidence of moral hazard in the form of rapid commercial or personal lines premium growth following downgrades of A-or low-rated insurers.
Natural Hazards, Jan 1, 2010
For risk analyses not only knowledge about the impact of different types of hazards, but also inf... more For risk analyses not only knowledge about the impact of different types of hazards, but also information about the elements and values at risk is necessary. This article introduces a methodology for a countrywide estimation of asset values for commercial and industrial properties using Germany as an example. It consists of a financial appraisal of asset values on the municipal level and a further disaggregation by means of land use data. Novelties are the distinction of 60 economic activities, the consideration of production site sizes and the application of a dasymetric mapping technique for a sector-specific estimation and disaggregation of asset values. A validation with empirical data confirms the feasibility of the calculation. The resulting maps can be used for loss estimations e.g. in the framework of cost–benefit analyses that aim to evaluate hazard mitigation measures or for portfolio analyses by banks and insurance companies. The approach can be used for other countries if the necessary data is available (mainly in industrialized countries). In any case, it reveals the critical points when estimating commercial and industrial asset values.
Journal of Risk and Insurance, Jan 1, 2006
This paper is preliminary and confidential and may not be reproduced or quoted without the author... more This paper is preliminary and confidential and may not be reproduced or quoted without the authors' permission.
Journal of Financial Services Research, Jan 1, 2011
This paper examines the relationship between mergers & acquisitions (M & As), diversification and... more This paper examines the relationship between mergers & acquisitions (M & As), diversification and financial performance in the U.S. property-liability insurance industry over the period 1989–2004. The risk-adjusted return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), Z-score and total risk measured by earnings volatility are considered as a relevant indicator of performance. We find that acquirers’ financial performance decreases and earnings volatility increases during the gestation period after the M & As perhaps due to increased frictional costs associated with post-merger integration and agency problems. We find that more focused insurers outperform the product-diversified insurers, implying that the costs of diversification outweigh the benefits. These findings are robust to alternative risk and diversification measures. We also find that marginal increases in commercial line share are associated with higher risk-adjusted profits, but these gains are offset by the extra costs from product diversity when its initial share is low. For insurers initially concentrated in commercial line, a marginal increase in commercial line share is related to higher performance due to positive effects of both direct exposure and indirect focus.
Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Jan 1, 2006
We analyze abnormal premium growth surrounding changes in A.M. Best Company financial strength ra... more We analyze abnormal premium growth surrounding changes in A.M. Best Company financial strength ratings for a large panel of property/casualty insurers during 1992-1999. Control group comparisons and regression estimates generally indicate economically and statistically significant premium declines in the year of and the year following rating downgrades. Consistent with greater risk sensitivity of demand, the premium declines were concentrated among commercial insurance, which has less complete guaranty fund protection than personal insurance. The premium declines were greater for firms with relatively low pre-downgrade ratings, and particularly pronounced for firms falling below an A-rating. We find no evidence of moral hazard in the form of rapid commercial or personal lines premium growth following downgrades of A-or low-rated insurers.