Albert Keidel | Georgetown University (original) (raw)
Papers by Albert Keidel
Perspectives chinoises, 2000
Keidel Albert, Choukroune Leïla. Les difficultés pratiques liées à l'utilisation du système s... more Keidel Albert, Choukroune Leïla. Les difficultés pratiques liées à l'utilisation du système statistique chinois. In: Perspectives chinoises, n°62, 2000. pp. 38-44
Business and Public Administration Studies, 2008
Despite China's strong current financial and economic position, a focus on China can help highlig... more Despite China's strong current financial and economic position, a focus on China can help highlight how this current global crisis is just another step in the evolution and improvement of the world's governance systems. China cannot make the mistake of viewing this crisis as a sign of weakness in the political and economic systems that have emerged over centuries in the world's most scientifically and commercially advanced nations. Those systems are still works in progress, and China needs urgently to learn as much as it can from them-including the lessons they are gleaning or hopefully will glean from this current financial and economic crisis. The United States similarly cannot fruitfully view the resolution of the current crisis as a return to what was there before. The crisis must be seen as an opportunity for major reform and renewal. For centuries, the world's most advanced systems of political and economic management have progressed in their most rapid spurts during times of crisis such as this. China and the United States, with the rest of the world community, have to roll up their sleeves together to ensure that we gain maximum advantage from the opportunities offered by the world's turmoil today. In this broader context, this essay focuses most intently on China's current situation, the nature of the global crisis, how it affects China, and what the United States and China together can do with it to gain maximum long-term improvements for themselves and the world at large. This essay's broader import, however, is its encouragement for all global parties to engage the crisis with a strong sense of promise and opportunity. Let us seize the moment. China's current economic prospect How is China doing? What is its economic situation? The short answer is, China is doing quite well. It is insulated from the financial side of the turmoil, has low inflation, and is growing rapidly. What is more, a review of China's current economic status reveals that China now has This essay, with updates and extensions through October 26, is based on a luncheon speech Albert Keidel delivered for the U.S.-China Business Council at the Fairmont Hotel in Washington, DC on October 16, 2008. Permission has been granted by the author to reprint this article here.
Eurasian Geography and Economics, May 1, 2011
A noted American authority on China's economy and monetary policy presents a statistical as w... more A noted American authority on China's economy and monetary policy presents a statistical as well as theoretical analysis of a variety of perspectives on the controversy surrounding China's currency, basing his paper on both. The author provides the historical background and comprehensive summaries, focusing on different viewpoints about whether China's currency is undervalued, and thus may contribute to global imbalances. In the paper, he divides observers involved in the controversy into two main camps, namely the ones who find China's trade balances to be sensitive to price effects through exchange rate adjustments and those who emphasize other factors as bearing the responsibility for China's large surpluses, including the U.S. credit bubble emerging before the global financial crisis, as well as a version of Dutch disease.
China Journal, 2010
Review(s) of: Policy Reform and Chinese Markets: Progress and Challenges, edited by Belton M. Fle... more Review(s) of: Policy Reform and Chinese Markets: Progress and Challenges, edited by Belton M. Fleisher, Nicholas C. Hope, Anita Alves Pena and Dennis Tao Yang. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2008. xvi + 334 pp. 75.00/US$120.00 (hardcover).
Much of our recent attention has focused on anti-Japan riots in China, yet a competing story in r... more Much of our recent attention has focused on anti-Japan riots in China, yet a competing story in recent years is the extraordinarily scale of social unrest linked not to patriotism and foreign policy but to economic tensions and perceived economic loss. Some analysts even allow that the anti-Japanese riots themselves were permitted to continue so that China's citizenry could "blow off some steam" over government's poor economic performance (McLaughlin 2005). The most recent available statistics, from police records for 2003, indicate 58,000 protests that year involving 3 million protesters in all (Table 1 and Tanner 2005). The average size of protests and demonstrations grew from 8 persons in 1993 to 52 in 2003 (Liaowang magazine, cited in Tanner 2005). Reports of large-scale incidents in 2004 continue to appear (see below). Some are directly linked to economic issues, while others are sparked by a non-economic incident but are reported as reflecting depressed economic conditions affecting the demonstrators. This memo presents an analytical framework for considering the economic roots of these disturbances, without pretending to have conducted independent research into the scale and nature of the demonstrations themselves. The memo's general hypotheses and conclusions are that economic tensions underlying large-scale disturbances involve a dual-layered process. First, disturbances derive most of their basic energy directly from dissatisfaction over the impact of economic reforms and market-based modernization. Second, widespread enterprise and government corruption and malfeasance supplement and greatly amplify this basic dissatisfaction. Reforms and modernization unleash conflicting claims over limited resources, and it is not clear that any form of government at either the central or local level, including those based on multi-party competitive elections, could eliminate the resulting dissatisfaction. (Arrow 1951) It does seem clear, however, that more effective national and local governance could greatly mitigate the formation of unrealistic expectations and the exacerbation of dissatisfaction due to corruption and corporate lawlessness.-1
China Economic Review, 2001
China's GDP expenditure accounts present an alternative to the official value-added and productio... more China's GDP expenditure accounts present an alternative to the official value-added and production-method accounts used to report growth and per-capita living standards. Indeed, in a strong sense, expenditure accounts are the best measure of an economy's output, because they measure what really comes out of the economy that is used by citizens, business, government, and the rest of the world. In fact, expenditure accounts are the preferred GDP reporting methods for most developed economics. However, in China's case, measurement of the components of expenditure GDP has significant flaws, which affect its use to check official reports of GDP growth and level. Still, understanding expenditure GDP, warts and all, strengthens our sense of China's GDP reporting accuracy, as well as the accuracy of outside estimates of China's purchasing power parity (PPP) GDP.
China Journal, 2010
Review(s) of: Policy Reform and Chinese Markets: Progress and Challenges, edited by Belton M. Fle... more Review(s) of: Policy Reform and Chinese Markets: Progress and Challenges, edited by Belton M. Fleisher, Nicholas C. Hope, Anita Alves Pena and Dennis Tao Yang. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2008. xvi + 334 pp. 75.00/US$120.00 (hardcover).
Pacific Affairs, 1982
ABSTRACT Thesis (Ph. D.)--Harvard University, 1978.
Social Science Research Network, 2008
China has a two-part financial system with a competitive market-based component and a public, gov... more China has a two-part financial system with a competitive market-based component and a public, government directed component. Both have reformed rapidly since China's reforms began in 1978. The market-based component is immature and subject to numerous systemic weaknesses, while the government directed component, which also suffers shortcomings, performs essential funding for infrastructure and other underpinnings of China's sustained rapid growth. Critics claim that China's financial system is inefficient, with banks considered technically insolvent. But a realistic evaluation of the system's resources and accomplishments, including investment rates of return and efficiency in generating sustained growth, can only conclude that China's financial system is performing well and is likely to continue to do so. China's newly articulated strategy for financial reforms going forward clearly intends to pursue gradual commercialization of the whole system-a process that can be expected to last twenty or thirty years. In the meantime, ongoing improvements in government directed credit will continue to ensure adequate investments in the necessary substructures for competitive for-profit economic expansion.
Journal of northeast Asian studies =, Sep 1, 1996
In moving towards becoming a market economy, China has made dramatic strides since embarking on r... more In moving towards becoming a market economy, China has made dramatic strides since embarking on reforms in 1978, but liberalizations have been accompanied by inflationary booms followed by bouts of social instability. These last account for much of the caution in China's approach to joining the World Trade Organization, which is seen as critical to securing further foreign direct investment, foreign technology and access to foreign markets-all necessary to economic growth and development. There is a reluctance to make firm commitments to abide by WTO rules on a schedule faster than that expected of developing countries. Perhaps the commitments required could be undertaken in confidence-building stages.
This report discusses the impact of several industries on China's economic future. The clothi... more This report discusses the impact of several industries on China's economic future. The clothing and consumer electronics industry,the motor vehicle industry. The report describes the ranking Chinese, South Korean and Japanese exports to the United States.
Hypotheses "1" and "2" succeed in explaining phenomenon "P" Is the hypothesis verified? Are its n... more Hypotheses "1" and "2" succeed in explaining phenomenon "P" Is the hypothesis verified? Are its needed supporting facts and data valid? a Valid? Verified? 1. Does hypothesis "1" explain phenomenon "P"? Yes A. Data or information "a" testing explanation "1" Yes Yes B. Data or information "b" testing explanation "1" Yes Yes C. Data or information "c" testing explanation "1" No Yes … etc. 2. Does hypothesis "2" explain phenomenon "P"? Yes Y A. Data or information "d" testing explanation "2" No Yes B. Data or information "e" testing explanation "2" Yes Yes C. Data or information "f" testing explanation "2" Yes Yes … etc. 3. Does hypothesis "3" explain phenomenon "P" No A. Data or information "g" testing explanation "3" No No B. Data or information "h" testing explanation "3" No No C. Data or information "i" testing explanation "3" Yes No … etc. 4. Explanation "4" of phenomenon "P" No A. Data or information "k" testing explanation "4" Yes No … etc. Note: A supporting fact could be true and still fail to verify the hypothesis; similarly, unsuccessful validation of a relevant fact could support the hypothesis; it all depends on the logic of the known relationship(s). Sources and explanation: See the text.
* A supporting fact could be true and still fail to verify the hypothesis; similarly, unsuccessfu... more * A supporting fact could be true and still fail to verify the hypothesis; similarly, unsuccessful validation of a relevant fact could support the hypothesis; it all depends on the logic of the known relationship(s). Sources and explanation: See the text.
led by Ramesh Chander (IECSE), who also acted as technical advisor for this report. Many other pe... more led by Ramesh Chander (IECSE), who also acted as technical advisor for this report. Many other persons at various preparation stages contributed significant time in making comments and suggestions, not all of which could be fully incorporated in the report. Within the World Bank, thanks are especially due to Sultan Ahmad,
Comparison of China's major regions, detailed below, shows that in official GDP per capita terms ... more Comparison of China's major regions, detailed below, shows that in official GDP per capita terms and for rural income and consumption, disparities appear large. Furthermore, both over 20 years and over the 2000-05 five-year period, Chinese rural income and consumption disparities have increased, as measured by the ratios of per-capita rural household statistics representative for major regions. In other words, regional rural household income and consumption levels in China are diverging (at least through 2005) and have been, whether measured since 1985 or 2000. Although disparities are growing, the extraordinarily rapid improvement in rural household income and consumption levels in all regions over both longer-term (1985-2005) and more recent (2000-2005) periods is notable. Average annual real growth in rural household income was at least 6.0 percent for all seven regions over the period 1985-2005, and for consumption the corresponding average growth rate was at least 6.5 percent over all regions. Compared to the most obvious static measure of differences in regional well being, average consumption levels, the sustained speed of improvement in income and consumption in all regions and provinces is a dynamic indicator of well being that argues for less severe regional disparities in well being and weaker divergence in well being from one region to another. In other words, to the degree that well being is more than absolute consumption levels but is linked * The author would like to thank Yang ZHANG, Research Assistant, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, for excellent data support.
Review of Income and Wealth, Jul 1, 2009
Comparison of China's major regions, detailed below, shows that in official GDP per capita terms ... more Comparison of China's major regions, detailed below, shows that in official GDP per capita terms and for rural income and consumption, disparities appear large. Furthermore, both over 20 years and over the 2000-05 five-year period, Chinese rural income and consumption disparities have increased, as measured by the ratios of per-capita rural household statistics representative for major regions. Hence, regional rural household income and consumption levels in China are diverging (at least through 2005) and have been, whether measured since 1985 or 2000. Correctly interpreting these results is an important challenge. Although disparities are
Perspectives chinoises, 2000
Keidel Albert, Choukroune Leïla. Les difficultés pratiques liées à l'utilisation du système s... more Keidel Albert, Choukroune Leïla. Les difficultés pratiques liées à l'utilisation du système statistique chinois. In: Perspectives chinoises, n°62, 2000. pp. 38-44
Business and Public Administration Studies, 2008
Despite China's strong current financial and economic position, a focus on China can help highlig... more Despite China's strong current financial and economic position, a focus on China can help highlight how this current global crisis is just another step in the evolution and improvement of the world's governance systems. China cannot make the mistake of viewing this crisis as a sign of weakness in the political and economic systems that have emerged over centuries in the world's most scientifically and commercially advanced nations. Those systems are still works in progress, and China needs urgently to learn as much as it can from them-including the lessons they are gleaning or hopefully will glean from this current financial and economic crisis. The United States similarly cannot fruitfully view the resolution of the current crisis as a return to what was there before. The crisis must be seen as an opportunity for major reform and renewal. For centuries, the world's most advanced systems of political and economic management have progressed in their most rapid spurts during times of crisis such as this. China and the United States, with the rest of the world community, have to roll up their sleeves together to ensure that we gain maximum advantage from the opportunities offered by the world's turmoil today. In this broader context, this essay focuses most intently on China's current situation, the nature of the global crisis, how it affects China, and what the United States and China together can do with it to gain maximum long-term improvements for themselves and the world at large. This essay's broader import, however, is its encouragement for all global parties to engage the crisis with a strong sense of promise and opportunity. Let us seize the moment. China's current economic prospect How is China doing? What is its economic situation? The short answer is, China is doing quite well. It is insulated from the financial side of the turmoil, has low inflation, and is growing rapidly. What is more, a review of China's current economic status reveals that China now has This essay, with updates and extensions through October 26, is based on a luncheon speech Albert Keidel delivered for the U.S.-China Business Council at the Fairmont Hotel in Washington, DC on October 16, 2008. Permission has been granted by the author to reprint this article here.
Eurasian Geography and Economics, May 1, 2011
A noted American authority on China's economy and monetary policy presents a statistical as w... more A noted American authority on China's economy and monetary policy presents a statistical as well as theoretical analysis of a variety of perspectives on the controversy surrounding China's currency, basing his paper on both. The author provides the historical background and comprehensive summaries, focusing on different viewpoints about whether China's currency is undervalued, and thus may contribute to global imbalances. In the paper, he divides observers involved in the controversy into two main camps, namely the ones who find China's trade balances to be sensitive to price effects through exchange rate adjustments and those who emphasize other factors as bearing the responsibility for China's large surpluses, including the U.S. credit bubble emerging before the global financial crisis, as well as a version of Dutch disease.
China Journal, 2010
Review(s) of: Policy Reform and Chinese Markets: Progress and Challenges, edited by Belton M. Fle... more Review(s) of: Policy Reform and Chinese Markets: Progress and Challenges, edited by Belton M. Fleisher, Nicholas C. Hope, Anita Alves Pena and Dennis Tao Yang. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2008. xvi + 334 pp. 75.00/US$120.00 (hardcover).
Much of our recent attention has focused on anti-Japan riots in China, yet a competing story in r... more Much of our recent attention has focused on anti-Japan riots in China, yet a competing story in recent years is the extraordinarily scale of social unrest linked not to patriotism and foreign policy but to economic tensions and perceived economic loss. Some analysts even allow that the anti-Japanese riots themselves were permitted to continue so that China's citizenry could "blow off some steam" over government's poor economic performance (McLaughlin 2005). The most recent available statistics, from police records for 2003, indicate 58,000 protests that year involving 3 million protesters in all (Table 1 and Tanner 2005). The average size of protests and demonstrations grew from 8 persons in 1993 to 52 in 2003 (Liaowang magazine, cited in Tanner 2005). Reports of large-scale incidents in 2004 continue to appear (see below). Some are directly linked to economic issues, while others are sparked by a non-economic incident but are reported as reflecting depressed economic conditions affecting the demonstrators. This memo presents an analytical framework for considering the economic roots of these disturbances, without pretending to have conducted independent research into the scale and nature of the demonstrations themselves. The memo's general hypotheses and conclusions are that economic tensions underlying large-scale disturbances involve a dual-layered process. First, disturbances derive most of their basic energy directly from dissatisfaction over the impact of economic reforms and market-based modernization. Second, widespread enterprise and government corruption and malfeasance supplement and greatly amplify this basic dissatisfaction. Reforms and modernization unleash conflicting claims over limited resources, and it is not clear that any form of government at either the central or local level, including those based on multi-party competitive elections, could eliminate the resulting dissatisfaction. (Arrow 1951) It does seem clear, however, that more effective national and local governance could greatly mitigate the formation of unrealistic expectations and the exacerbation of dissatisfaction due to corruption and corporate lawlessness.-1
China Economic Review, 2001
China's GDP expenditure accounts present an alternative to the official value-added and productio... more China's GDP expenditure accounts present an alternative to the official value-added and production-method accounts used to report growth and per-capita living standards. Indeed, in a strong sense, expenditure accounts are the best measure of an economy's output, because they measure what really comes out of the economy that is used by citizens, business, government, and the rest of the world. In fact, expenditure accounts are the preferred GDP reporting methods for most developed economics. However, in China's case, measurement of the components of expenditure GDP has significant flaws, which affect its use to check official reports of GDP growth and level. Still, understanding expenditure GDP, warts and all, strengthens our sense of China's GDP reporting accuracy, as well as the accuracy of outside estimates of China's purchasing power parity (PPP) GDP.
China Journal, 2010
Review(s) of: Policy Reform and Chinese Markets: Progress and Challenges, edited by Belton M. Fle... more Review(s) of: Policy Reform and Chinese Markets: Progress and Challenges, edited by Belton M. Fleisher, Nicholas C. Hope, Anita Alves Pena and Dennis Tao Yang. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2008. xvi + 334 pp. 75.00/US$120.00 (hardcover).
Pacific Affairs, 1982
ABSTRACT Thesis (Ph. D.)--Harvard University, 1978.
Social Science Research Network, 2008
China has a two-part financial system with a competitive market-based component and a public, gov... more China has a two-part financial system with a competitive market-based component and a public, government directed component. Both have reformed rapidly since China's reforms began in 1978. The market-based component is immature and subject to numerous systemic weaknesses, while the government directed component, which also suffers shortcomings, performs essential funding for infrastructure and other underpinnings of China's sustained rapid growth. Critics claim that China's financial system is inefficient, with banks considered technically insolvent. But a realistic evaluation of the system's resources and accomplishments, including investment rates of return and efficiency in generating sustained growth, can only conclude that China's financial system is performing well and is likely to continue to do so. China's newly articulated strategy for financial reforms going forward clearly intends to pursue gradual commercialization of the whole system-a process that can be expected to last twenty or thirty years. In the meantime, ongoing improvements in government directed credit will continue to ensure adequate investments in the necessary substructures for competitive for-profit economic expansion.
Journal of northeast Asian studies =, Sep 1, 1996
In moving towards becoming a market economy, China has made dramatic strides since embarking on r... more In moving towards becoming a market economy, China has made dramatic strides since embarking on reforms in 1978, but liberalizations have been accompanied by inflationary booms followed by bouts of social instability. These last account for much of the caution in China's approach to joining the World Trade Organization, which is seen as critical to securing further foreign direct investment, foreign technology and access to foreign markets-all necessary to economic growth and development. There is a reluctance to make firm commitments to abide by WTO rules on a schedule faster than that expected of developing countries. Perhaps the commitments required could be undertaken in confidence-building stages.
This report discusses the impact of several industries on China's economic future. The clothi... more This report discusses the impact of several industries on China's economic future. The clothing and consumer electronics industry,the motor vehicle industry. The report describes the ranking Chinese, South Korean and Japanese exports to the United States.
Hypotheses "1" and "2" succeed in explaining phenomenon "P" Is the hypothesis verified? Are its n... more Hypotheses "1" and "2" succeed in explaining phenomenon "P" Is the hypothesis verified? Are its needed supporting facts and data valid? a Valid? Verified? 1. Does hypothesis "1" explain phenomenon "P"? Yes A. Data or information "a" testing explanation "1" Yes Yes B. Data or information "b" testing explanation "1" Yes Yes C. Data or information "c" testing explanation "1" No Yes … etc. 2. Does hypothesis "2" explain phenomenon "P"? Yes Y A. Data or information "d" testing explanation "2" No Yes B. Data or information "e" testing explanation "2" Yes Yes C. Data or information "f" testing explanation "2" Yes Yes … etc. 3. Does hypothesis "3" explain phenomenon "P" No A. Data or information "g" testing explanation "3" No No B. Data or information "h" testing explanation "3" No No C. Data or information "i" testing explanation "3" Yes No … etc. 4. Explanation "4" of phenomenon "P" No A. Data or information "k" testing explanation "4" Yes No … etc. Note: A supporting fact could be true and still fail to verify the hypothesis; similarly, unsuccessful validation of a relevant fact could support the hypothesis; it all depends on the logic of the known relationship(s). Sources and explanation: See the text.
* A supporting fact could be true and still fail to verify the hypothesis; similarly, unsuccessfu... more * A supporting fact could be true and still fail to verify the hypothesis; similarly, unsuccessful validation of a relevant fact could support the hypothesis; it all depends on the logic of the known relationship(s). Sources and explanation: See the text.
led by Ramesh Chander (IECSE), who also acted as technical advisor for this report. Many other pe... more led by Ramesh Chander (IECSE), who also acted as technical advisor for this report. Many other persons at various preparation stages contributed significant time in making comments and suggestions, not all of which could be fully incorporated in the report. Within the World Bank, thanks are especially due to Sultan Ahmad,
Comparison of China's major regions, detailed below, shows that in official GDP per capita terms ... more Comparison of China's major regions, detailed below, shows that in official GDP per capita terms and for rural income and consumption, disparities appear large. Furthermore, both over 20 years and over the 2000-05 five-year period, Chinese rural income and consumption disparities have increased, as measured by the ratios of per-capita rural household statistics representative for major regions. In other words, regional rural household income and consumption levels in China are diverging (at least through 2005) and have been, whether measured since 1985 or 2000. Although disparities are growing, the extraordinarily rapid improvement in rural household income and consumption levels in all regions over both longer-term (1985-2005) and more recent (2000-2005) periods is notable. Average annual real growth in rural household income was at least 6.0 percent for all seven regions over the period 1985-2005, and for consumption the corresponding average growth rate was at least 6.5 percent over all regions. Compared to the most obvious static measure of differences in regional well being, average consumption levels, the sustained speed of improvement in income and consumption in all regions and provinces is a dynamic indicator of well being that argues for less severe regional disparities in well being and weaker divergence in well being from one region to another. In other words, to the degree that well being is more than absolute consumption levels but is linked * The author would like to thank Yang ZHANG, Research Assistant, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, for excellent data support.
Review of Income and Wealth, Jul 1, 2009
Comparison of China's major regions, detailed below, shows that in official GDP per capita terms ... more Comparison of China's major regions, detailed below, shows that in official GDP per capita terms and for rural income and consumption, disparities appear large. Furthermore, both over 20 years and over the 2000-05 five-year period, Chinese rural income and consumption disparities have increased, as measured by the ratios of per-capita rural household statistics representative for major regions. Hence, regional rural household income and consumption levels in China are diverging (at least through 2005) and have been, whether measured since 1985 or 2000. Correctly interpreting these results is an important challenge. Although disparities are