Laia Balcells | Georgetown University (original) (raw)

Papers by Laia Balcells

European Journal of Political Researc, 2023

Can territorial disputes within countries be a basis for affective polarization? If so, how does ... more Can territorial disputes within countries be a basis for affective polarization? If so, how does it vary across territories? A burgeoning literature on affective polarization has largely focused on partisan divisions; we argue that contentious political issues such as those relating to territorial integrity can also be a basis for such affective polarization, where citizens feel concord with those sharing such policy preferences and animus for those who do not. We specify hypotheses about territorial-policy-based affective polarization and bring comparative survey evidence from three European regions with salient and contentious territorial claims: Scotland, Catalonia and Northern Ireland. While these three cases encompass different outcomes of territorial disputes, our results show strikingly similar levels of affective polarization.

UNU-WIDER working paper, 2023

In this paper we examine the legacies on civil society of routine repressive activities carried o... more In this paper we examine the legacies on civil society of routine repressive activities carried out by authoritarian regimes, such as the targeting of opposition organizations. We focus on participation in voluntary associations in post-authoritarian Spain. We hypothesize that while
repression initially depresses civic life, such effects do not persist after the demise of authoritarianism and the consolidation of a democratic regime. We analyse the impact of repression during the late Francoist regime (1960s–1970s) on local-level patterns of associations during the democratic period (covering the period 1976–2021). We find that repression has a null
local-level effect on the registration of new voluntary organizations during the early democratic period, but a significant and positive effect after 1981, once Spanish democracy consolidated. In order to probe into the mechanisms of such time-variant effects, we analyse a pool of 140,000
individual surveys fielded between 1989 and 2017. Such individual-level analyses indicate that the increase in organizational life in repressed areas might have more to do with a generational replacement effect than with people losing fear of participating over time.

Politics and Governance, 2021

Recent research on territorial preferences focuses on explaining who supports or opposes independ... more Recent research on territorial preferences focuses on explaining who supports or opposes independence. However, this research overlooks the relevance of an "intermediate" category of citizens who may oppose the territorial status quo of a sub-state territory but not support independence. We use evidence from the critical case of Catalonia to illustrate the relevance of individuals with such preferences for policies and outcomes highly relevant to secessionist conflicts. We present four sets of findings using two-wave panel data from December 2017 (just prior to the December regional elections when Catalan independence was the most salient and contentious issue) and September 2018. First, we find that a sizable plurality within Catalonia supports greater autonomy short of independence; conventional sociodemographic variables explaining support for independence do not strongly account for this preference. Second, such pro-autonomy individuals have considerably more intermediate attitudes regarding the key "on the ground" actions that the Spanish and Catalan governments pursued during the crucial independence drive in 2017. They were more opposed than pro-independence individuals to the unilateral independence efforts, and more opposed than pro-status quo individuals to the Spanish government's actions to counter these efforts. Third, they expressed emotions around the secessionist conflict similar to pro-status quo individuals. Finally, using an embedded survey experiment, we find that pro-autonomy individuals are more trusting of both the central and regional governments regarding their abiding by an agreement to resolve the conflict, and are less easily "polarized" through priming. Overall, these findings indicate the importance of further analyzing individuals with intermediate territorial views in secessionist conflicts.

Research and Politics, 2021

Memories of old conflicts often shape domestic politics long after these conflicts end. Contempor... more Memories of old conflicts often shape domestic politics long after these conflicts end. Contemporary debates about past civil wars and/or repressive regimes in different parts of the world suggest that these are sensitive topics that might increase political polarization, particularly when transitional justice policies are implemented and political parties mobilize discontentment with such policies. One such policy recently debated in Spain is removing public symbols linked to a past civil war and subsequent authoritarian regime (i.e., Francoism). However, the empirical evidence on its impact is still limited. This article attempts to fill this gap by examining the political consequences of street renaming. Using a difference-indifferences approach, we show that the removal of Francoist street names has contributed to an increase of electoral support for a new far-right party, Vox, mainly at the expense of a traditional right-wing conservative party, PP. Our results suggest that revisiting the past can cause a backlash among those ideologically aligned with the perpetrator, and that some political parties can capitalize on this.

... Laia Balcells Yale University laia.balcells@yale.edu; laia.balcells@gmail.com ... However, by... more ... Laia Balcells Yale University laia.balcells@yale.edu; laia.balcells@gmail.com ... However, by that time, a large proportion of the executions had already taken place on the Republican side (Solé i Sabaté and Villarroya 1989, Balcells 2007). ...

International Studies Quarterly, 2022

Challenging influential perspectives that downplay the role of shared rebel constituencies, we ar... more Challenging influential perspectives that downplay the role of shared rebel constituencies, we argue that they represent important causes of rebel alliances. Yet, we theorize distinct effects for different types of constituency. While compatible political aspirations push both organizations with a common ideological constituency and those with a common ethnic constituency to ally, for co-ethnic organizations this cooperation-inducing effect is offset by a cooperation-suppressing effect due to their higher risk of inter-rebel war. Leveraging a novel dataset of alliances in multiparty civil wars (1946-2015), we find support for our theoretical expectations. Shared ideological constituencies have a larger and more robust positive effect on the probability of alliances than shared ethnic constituencies. Furthermore, we find that co-ethnic rebel organizations tend to establish informal alliances only, while organizations sharing an ideological constituency are drawn to formal alliances.

International History Politics (IHAP) Newsletter,, 2021

While historical research is not new in political science, there has been a burgeoning of quantit... more While historical research is not new in political science, there has been a burgeoning of quantitative research using historical archives in the past decade. In this IHAP Newsletter short article, I summarize what I believe are best practices from historical research in political science.

Annual Review of Political Science, 2021

Early research on wartime violence against civilians highlighted a distinction between macro- and... more Early research on wartime violence against civilians highlighted a distinction between macro- and micro-level approaches. Macro-level approaches, grounded in the international relations subfield, focus on variation across countries or conflicts, while micro-level approaches, more influenced by the comparative politics subfield, focus on variation within countries or conflicts. However, some of the recent research on civilian targeting does not fit neatly into this dichotomy—such as research comparing subnational units or armed groups across conflicts or research relying on geo-referenced event data for multiple conflicts. We review the literature and advocate moving beyond the language of the micro- and macro-level divide, instead focusing on the determinants of violence against civilians at five different levels of analysis: international, domestic, subnational, organizational, and individual. While acknowledging significant advances in the field, we argue for continued research aimed at developing a more integrated theoretical understanding of the multiple actors and interactive social processes driving violence against civilians.

WIDER Working Paper 2021/2, 2021

Does secessionism lead to social polarization? Despite much research on independence movements, t... more Does secessionism lead to social polarization? Despite much research on independence movements, their relationship to polarization, a key mechanism theorized as increasing the chances of violent conflict, remains less understood. We argue that secessionist conflicts can polarize along both policy and ethnic group lines even when they take the form of non-violent disputes. However, polarization does not necessarily lead to violence. We explore the case of Catalonia, a region that experienced a deep secessionist crisis in the last months of 2017, using novel data from a panel survey fielded across two key time periods and embedded experiments. We find a society with great levels of affective polarization in that pro- and anti-independence advocates have strong negative views of one another. In addition, there is spillover in terms of the assessment of associated language groups. However, there is a group of moderates in between the two policy poles that limit the extent of this polarization. Contrary to common wisdom, these moderates have very stable preferences. Our results contribute to the understanding of the underexplored polarization dynamics of secessionist movements, particularly in places where high-intensity violence (i.e. terrorism, civil war) has not yet occurred.

Journal of Politics, 2020

Do transitional justice museums persuade visitors? We implement a novel field experiment at the M... more Do transitional justice museums persuade visitors? We implement a novel field experiment at the Museum of Memory and Human Rights in Santiago, Chile to understand the effects of governments' attempts to shape citizens' attitudes through symbolic transitional justice policies such as museums and memorials. Our findings suggest that though perceptions of the museum vary along ideological lines, Chilean university students display greater support for democratic institutions, are more likely to reject institutions associated with the repressive period and are more supportive of restorative transitional justice policies after visiting regardless of their ideological priors. We test for the persistence of these results and find that some of the effects endure for six months following the museum visit. We find support for the notion that emotional appeals deployed in the museum can shift citizen attitudes, which might have implications for processes of reconciliation.

British Journal of Political Science, 2020

An extensive literature in political science and sociology has analyzed how state repression shap... more An extensive literature in political science and sociology has analyzed how state repression shapes attempts by social movements to pursue political objectives. Less studied, however, is the effect that state repression of activists has on the broader public. Understanding public responses to repression is important as both states and social movements take action with an eye toward (de)mobilizing broader constituencies. We analyze this dynamic in the context of contemporary Catalonia, where the Spanish state cracked down on efforts by Catalan activists to hold a public referendum on independence. Matching poll respondents in the months before and after the crackdown in late 2017, we find that repression increased public sympathy for independence for a short period, and also heightened animosity towards actors seen as associated or complicit with the Spanish state. The findings speak to the potential for state repression of nonviolent movements to create windows of opportunity for broader mobilization.

Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, 2020

States often engage in internal purges to eliminate political dissidents within their own ranks. ... more States often engage in internal purges to eliminate political dissidents within their own ranks. However, partly because of the absence of reliable data, we know little about the logic and dynamics of these purges, particularly of lower-rank members of the state. Why do state authorities persecute these individuals when they do not entail a clear threat to the regime? We focus on the purges of public-school teachers during the early years of Francisco Franco's regime in Spain. Using detailed historical sources, we explore whether teachers were more likely to be purged following the two main cleavages in 1930s Spain: the left-right divide and the center-periphery (i.e. nationalist) cleavage. Our results suggest that whilst the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939) was still unfolding Francoist authorities targeted teachers from leftist localities, thus focusing on potential security threats behind the frontlines. After winning the war, Francoists switched their targeting to teachers from national minority groups in order to promote nation-building policies leading to their assimilation. Our findings highlight the double logic of purging as both a preemptive measure against internal threats and a nation-building tool.

Comparative Politics, 2020

What do different forms of anti-Semitic violence during World War II teach us about the comparati... more What do different forms of anti-Semitic violence during World War II teach us about the comparative study of political violence? In this article, we review three recent political science books about the perpetrators of anti-Semitic violence, the responses of their Jewish victims, and the rescue efforts that helped European Jews evade violence. These books demonstrate promising theoretical, empirical, and methodological uses for the rich historical record about the Holocaust. We use these studies to highlight the methodological innovations that they advance, the blurry theoretical boundaries between selective and collective forms of mass violence, and the possibility of agentive action by perpetrators, victims, and rescuers alike. We conclude by highlighting the social-psychology of genocidal violence and the legacies of these episodes as areas for future inquiry.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 2018

Does terrorism turn voters against governments, or do citizens “rally around the flag”? Understan... more Does terrorism turn voters against governments, or do citizens “rally around the flag”? Understanding the relationship between terrorist attacks and electoral behavior is key to comprehending how terrorism impacts democracies. We estimate the causal effect of terrorist violence on electoral behavior by leveraging data from nationally and regionally representative surveys that were being fielded when Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA) perpetrated terrorist attacks in Spain. We find that attacks are likely to increase individuals’ intent to participate in democratic elections but not to change their vote choice as reported in the surveys. These results are relevant because they imply that terrorists may have less leverage on electoral results than previously thought. Our research design and methodology may prove useful in future studies on the impact of terrorism.

As they pursue information and deploy violence during conflict, combatants compose, catalog, and ... more As they pursue information and deploy violence during conflict, combatants compose, catalog, and preserve a wide variety of records, such as memos, investigative reports, and communiqués. In an increasing number of post-conflict scenarios, these records are being archived and released publicly, quickly becoming a critical new source of data for studies of peace and conflict. The objective of this special issue is to advance a new research agenda focused on the systematic analysis of conflict archives. The contributors each spent significant time collecting original data from often-dusty archives and, in many cases, developed new methodologies for sampling, cataloging, and analyzing historical documents. Their findings reveal how violence simultaneously shapes and is shaped by factors that remain largely unobservable using more conventional sources of conflict data, including clandestine mobilization, bureaucratic accountability, and political identities. By considering these studies in relation to one another, this introduction aims to provide readers with a comprehensive understanding of field research strategies and analytical techniques for studying original data from conflict archives. We conclude that while archival data are subject to their own biases that must be considered, this research agenda addresses significant limitations associated with traditional data sources and, in turn, pushes scholars to rethink many of the mechanisms underlying the causes and dynamics of peace and conflict.

This article explores the dynamics of internal resettlement in times of civil war by using a nove... more This article explores the dynamics of internal resettlement in times of civil war by using a novel dataset of all municipalities of Catalonia during the Spanish Civil War (1936–39), which includes information on the total number of internally displaced from other parts of Spain that sought refuge in Catalan localities during the civil war. The dataset, which also incorporates information on relevant covariates, is built with a combination of primary (i.e. archival) and secondary sources. The results of the multivariate analyses indicate that political identities have a significant impact on resettlement: people tend to relocate to places where they can find others who share their political and/or ethnic identity; we see this reflected in political and ethnic alignments at the municipal level. In addition, the article uncovers a relevant dynamic in the diffusion of violence at the local level: the arrival of internal refugees in a new locality may have the unintended effect of increasing levels of direct violence due to its role in disseminating credible news of atrocities committed by the other side. The implications of this study go beyond the Spanish case and make a contribution to unpacking dynamics of violence and internal displacement in civil wars. The article also sheds light on some of the mechanisms by which refugee flows can play a role in the diffusion of violence throughout a given country.

What accounts for low-intensity intergroup violence? This article explores the determinants of lo... more What accounts for low-intensity intergroup violence? This article explores the determinants of low-intensity sectarian violence in Northern Ireland, which has marked the post-1998 peace agreement period. We use original cross-sectional time series violence data for the 2005-2012 period at a disaggregated sub-national level, the ward, and a wide variety of social and economic indicators. In particular, we assess the impact of within-ward ethnic composition, on the one hand, and the ethnic composition of neighboring wards, on the other. We find that the number of intergroup violent events peak in wards where there is parity between groups, and in predominantly Catholic (Protestant) wards that border predominantly Protestant (Catholic) wards. The rationale is that violence takes place where groups have both opportunities to perpetrate sectarian violence and motives due to proximity and competition. The article makes several contributions: it shows that micro-level dynamics of violence can expand beyond local territorial units; and it suggests that ethnic segregation is unlikely to prevent intergroup violence. Abstract: What accounts for low-intensity intergroup violence? This article explores the determinants of low-intensity sectarian violence in Northern Ireland, which has marked the post-1998 peace agreement period. We use original cross-sectional time series violence data for the 2005-2012 period at a disaggregated sub-national level, the ward, and a wide variety of social and economic indicators. In particular, we assess the impact of within-ward ethnic composition, on the one hand, and the ethnic composition of neighboring wards, on the other. We find that the number of intergroup violent events peak in wards where there is parity between groups, and in predominantly Catholic (Protestant) wards that border predominantly Protestant (Catholic) wards. The rationale is that violence takes place where groups have both motives to perpetrate sectarian violence and opportunities due to proximity and competition. The article makes several contributions: it shows that micro-level dynamics of violence can expand beyond local territorial units; and it suggests that ethnic segregation is unlikely to prevent intergroup violence.

A B S T R A C T This paper explores the causes of displacement during civil wars. Recent scholars... more A B S T R A C T This paper explores the causes of displacement during civil wars. Recent scholarship has shown that conventional civil wars – those in which forces are relatively balanced – and irregular civil wars – those in which one side is substantially stronger than the other – exhibit different patterns of violence. We hypothesize that, while the mode of violence differs, the form of displacement should be consistent across the wars: displacement is a tactic of war that armed groups use to conquer new territories. By expelling civilians associated with rivals, armed groups improve their odds of gaining control of contested territory. This implies that members of a group are targeted for displacement because of their identity and presumed loyalties. We test the theory using two fine-grained datasets on individuals displaced during a conventional civil war, in Spain (1936–1939), and an irregular civil war, in Colombia (1964–). In both cases, the war cleavage was ideological and reflected in national elections: the locations where political parties received support indicated which populations were sympathetic to rivals. In both civil wars, we observe higher levels of displacement in locations where more sympathizers of rival armed groups reside. The article is the first comparison to our knowledge of the sub-national dynamics of displacement within two different civil wars and it shows that the microfoundations of displacement are similar across types. Finally, the article explains macro-level differences with a coherent micro-level framework.

American Political Science Review, 2010

... Stathis N. Kalyvas (Corresponding Author) and Laia Balcells Department of Political Science, ... more ... Stathis N. Kalyvas (Corresponding Author) and Laia Balcells Department of Political Science, Yale University Yale University 8 Prospect Place, room 101 New Haven, CT 06511-3516 Email: stathis.kalyvas@yale.edu Recent ...

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2011

... Bellaterra, Barcelona 08193, Spain Email: laia.balcells@iae.csic.es ... the Italian and Germa... more ... Bellaterra, Barcelona 08193, Spain Email: laia.balcells@iae.csic.es ... the Italian and German armies—whose actions were, however, closely supervised by Nationalist commanders, and very par-ticularly, by General Franco (Balfour and Preston 1999; Solé i Sabaté and Villarroya ...

European Journal of Political Researc, 2023

UNU-WIDER working paper, 2023

Politics and Governance, 2021

Research and Politics, 2021

International Studies Quarterly, 2022

International History Politics (IHAP) Newsletter,, 2021

Annual Review of Political Science, 2021

WIDER Working Paper 2021/2, 2021

Journal of Politics, 2020

British Journal of Political Science, 2020

Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, 2020

Comparative Politics, 2020

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 2018

American Political Science Review, 2010

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2011

Barcelona: Instituto Catalán Internacional para la Paz, 2021., 2021

¿Qué explica la violencia contra los civiles en las guerras civiles? ¿Por qué hay grupos que mata... more ¿Qué explica la violencia contra los civiles en las guerras civiles? ¿Por qué hay grupos que matan a civiles en zonas donde gozan de un pleno control militar, sin presencia militar enemiga? Este innovador libro conecta la política de preguerra con los patrones de la violencia durante las guerras civiles. Sostiene que tanto la rivalidad política local como la venganza desempeñan un papel en la violencia contra los civiles. Los grupos armados perpetran la violencia directa junto con civiles, que colaboran con ellos si la violencia puede ayudarles a ganar o a consolidar el control político local. A medida que la guerra civil continúa, también entran en juego los motivos relacionados con el deseo de venganza, lo que conduce a espirales de violenciaen el ámbito local.

En esta contribución al estudio de la guerra civil española, Balcells combina el análisis estadístico con la investigación etnográfica y cualitativa, a fin de abrir nuevas vías a los académicos e investigadores interesados en las guerras civiles, la política y los procesos de conflicto. Rivalidad y venganza presenta una teoría y un método generalizables a un amplio conjunto de casos.