Timothy P. Newfield | Georgetown University (original) (raw)

Papers by Timothy P. Newfield

How is history relevant to the present, or indeed the future? Governments around the world have u... more How is history relevant to the present, or indeed the future? Governments around the world have used history to inform planning and decision-making in various fields for years, but more recently it has taken on a renewed importance as governments grapple with increasingly complex challenges arising from the impacts of climatic change. Yet identifying "lessons from the past" is not straightforward. Especially in the case of big questions about historical structures and social processes, establishing precise causal relationships is complex and interpretive, making consensus difficult among specialists. A second major challenge arises over the uses of history. Historical precedent can and does play a role in some contexts in helping formulate new strategies for addressing local environmental challenges. At the national level policy-makers and politicians often look to the past for inspiration, guidance, or justification. In both respects, the cases and examples chosen are often highly selective and tend to align with pre-existing assumptions. This article briefly reviews these challenges within the context of climate change and associated environmental and sustainability issues, comments on recent work in the field, and suggests some ways forward for historians. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

this paper would not have been written. When John started to engage with environmental history an... more this paper would not have been written. When John started to engage with environmental history and to integrate the natural sciences into the history and archaeology of late antiquity, he sought not to go it alone or to juggle scientific data which historians are not trained to produce or use, but to assemble and maintain an interdisciplinary team of scholars, a network of people trained in different fields but interested in similar questions. This approach has characterized John's outputs over the last decade, from the 2008 Lake Nar study in The Holocene. Through the annual colloquia and workshops of the Climate Change and History Research Initiative (CCHRI. princeton.edu), which John founded in 2013, we have come together oen to learn from each other and to work collaboratively. Our experience has taught us that our data and methods, carefully integrated, complement each other and allow us to write histories we otherwise could not. We have expanded our multidisciplinary knowledge and opened our horizons. To John, his industriousness, his drive, and his gregarious and collegial spirit, we are indebted. 1 Among the better-known early studies are J. H, Der schwarze Tod, Berlin 1832; F. G, The Great Pestilence (A. D. 1348-9), London 1893. 2 Late antique plague appeared in several early formative studies of late antiquity, such as J. B, A History of the Later Roman Empire from Arcadius to Irene,

De annis climactericis, pp. 726-27. Hahn's thinking contrasted sharply with others at the time, s... more De annis climactericis, pp. 726-27. Hahn's thinking contrasted sharply with others at the time, such as Johannes Friend, who voiced his belief that the Greeks were unacquainted with smallpox in his history of medicine, published and translated multiple times both before and a er the appearance of Hahn's treatise:

Late antique plague has never been more contested. Recent scholarship has repeatedly questioned w... more Late antique plague has never been more contested. Recent scholarship has repeatedly questioned whether the Justinianic plague caused catastrophic mortality and supporters of the traditional narrative of a vast, depopulating sixth-century pandemic have dug in. Scholars have repeatedly assessed evidence thought to prove traditional narratives about the Justinianic plague, but never to everyone's liking. Things have gotten ugly and no resolution is in sight. To advance the debate and shift the focus, these pages review the use of the Black Death in accounts of the Justinianic plague. What follows demonstrates that the claim the sixth-century pandemic killed many millions is founded on centuries of uncritical treatment of late antique sources reinforced in recent generations via the overinterpretation of the first pandemic's plague diagnosis and the neglect of plague's ecological and epidemiological complexities. That the Justinianic plague was another Black Death underpins research agendas and influences the interpretation of data in diverse fields, but it is an unsubstantiated claim, one stemming from deficient interdisciplinarity and neither proven by current evidence nor provable with current methods. Only by strengthening interdisciplinary collaboration, it is proposed in closing, can we begin to remedy our first-pandemic plague problems. KEYWORDS plague, Yersinia pestis, Justinianic plague, disease history, black death, pandemic

Historians of medicine and disease have yet to think through a syndemic lens. This commentary aim... more Historians of medicine and disease have yet to think through a syndemic lens. This commentary aims to point out why they should. Although there are several hurdles to overcome, our histories of disease and our understanding of current syndemics both stand to gain should historians begin to explore episodes of cooccurring diseases that share root causes.

Smallpox, caused by the variola virus (VARV), is prominent in modern histories of the ancient Med... more Smallpox, caused by the variola virus (VARV), is prominent in modern histories of the ancient Mediterranean world. The disease, or the diagnosis of it, has shaped estimations of the scale and significance of epidemics and pandemics, notably the 2nd-c. Antonine plague, and the burden of disease in large cities and regions densely populated in antiquity. Here we synthesize recent paleogenetic and evolutionary biological literature that casts significant doubt on the existence of a VARV that caused a disease we would recognizeclinically, ecologically, or epidemiologicallyas smallpox in antiquity. On the basis of current data, it is time archaeologists and historians began to eradicate smallpox from their histories of the ancient world.

Facing a warming climate, many tropical species-including the arthropod vectors of several infect... more Facing a warming climate, many tropical species-including the arthropod vectors of several infectious diseases-will be displaced to higher latitudes and elevations. These shifts are frequently projected for the future, but rarely documented in the present day. Here, we use one of the most comprehensive datasets ever compiled by medical entomologists to track the observed range limits of African malaria mosquito vectors (Anopheles spp.) from 1898 to 2016. Using a simple regression approach, we estimate that these species' ranges gained an average of 6.5 m of elevation per year, and the southern limits of their ranges moved polewards 4.7 km per year. These shifts would be consistent with the local velocity of recent climate change, and might help explain the incursion of malaria transmission into new areas over the past few decades. Confirming that climate change underlies these shifts, and applying similar methods to other disease vectors, are important directions for future research.

The late antique (ca. mid. 5th century CE) infant and child cemetery at Poggio Gramignano near Lu... more The late antique (ca. mid. 5th century CE) infant and child cemetery at Poggio Gramignano near Lugnano in Teverina (Umbria, Italy) is well-known for its association with malaria. However, less is known about the community members most closely connected to this cemetery space-in particular, the the infants' mothers. This paper more closely explores the health of the 62 individuals who have been recovered from the cemetery to date with the goal of exploring maternal health status at the time of infant death. Skeletal pathologies are reconsidered within the specific context of the placental fetal environment. Using a biocultural framework and analysis of nested environments, we explore the likely corresponding health of these infants' mothers during late pregnancy and breastfeeding, taking into consideration the wider context of social and cultural factors that mediated Roman women's behaviour, status, and access to resources in rural late antique Umbria. We conclude that these factors, combined with disease stress, profoundly shaped the fertility, morbidity, and mortality of this late antique community. In this context, fetal and perinatal health serve as a useful proxy for community health in the absence of adult remains.

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The influence that meteorological, climatological and environmental factors had on historical dis... more The influence that meteorological, climatological and environmental factors had on historical disease outbreaks is often speculated upon, but little investigated. Here, we explore potential associations between pandemic disease and climate over the last 2,500 years in Mediterranean history, focusing on ancient disease outbreaks and the Justinianic plague in particular. We underscore variation in the quality, quantity and interpretation of written evidence and proxy information from natural archives, the comlexity of identifying and disentangling past climatological and environmental drivers, and the need to integrate diverse methodologies to discern past climate-disease linkages and leverage historical experiences to prepare for the rapid expansion of novel pathogenic diseases. Although the difficulties entailed in establishing historical climate-pandemic linkages persist to the present, this is a research area as urgent as it is complex and historical perspectives are desperately needed.

We are thankful that Mischa Meier has engaged with our work. Further discussion of the Justiniani... more We are thankful that Mischa Meier has engaged with our work. Further discussion of the Justinianic Plague will only present new avenues forward and improve everyone's understanding of late antiquity. Meier's second response raises questions that have wider implications within the historical discipline and are worth discussing more closely. He claimed we argue that:

Existing mortality estimates assert that the Justinianic Plague (circa 541 to 750 CE) caused tens... more Existing mortality estimates assert that the Justinianic Plague (circa 541 to 750 CE) caused tens of millions of deaths throughout the Mediterranean world and Europe, helping to end antiquity and start the Middle Ages. In this article, we argue that this paradigm does not fit the evidence. We examine a series of independent quantitative and qualitative datasets that are directly or indirectly linked to demographic and economic trends during this two-century period: Written sources, legislation, coinage, papyri, inscriptions, pollen, ancient DNA, and mortuary archaeology. Individually or together, they fail to support the maximalist paradigm: None has a clear independent link to plague outbreaks and none supports maximalist reconstructions of late antique plague. Instead of large-scale, disruptive mortality, when contextualized and examined together, the datasets suggest continuity across the plague period. Although demographic, economic, and political changes continued between the 6th and 8th centuries, the evidence does not support the now commonplace claim that the Justinianic Plague was a primary causal factor of them.

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/51/25546

Recent work has linked historical crises, both regional and local, with palaeoclimatic estimates ... more Recent work has linked historical crises, both regional and local, with palaeoclimatic estimates of global and hemispheric climate change. Such studies tend to underemphasize the spatiotemporal and socioeconomical disparity of human suffering and adaptive capacity as well as the complexities of past climate change. We focus herein on the effects in Scotland of a severely cold climate episode in the 1690s, associated with major tropical volcanic events including a large unidentified tropical eruption in 1695. A tree-ring based summer temperature reconstruction from the northern Cairngorms region identifies the 1690s as the coldest decade in Scotland for the last 750 years. Archival sources meanwhile reveal the 1690s as likely the worst era of crop failure, food shortage, and mortality ever documented in Scottish history. The connection appears simple-volcanic cooling triggered famine-but the drivers towards famine are far more complex. Although the unusual coldness of the 1690s was near-hemispheric in scale, it had a differential impact across northwestern Europe. Within Scotland, both lowlands and highlands experienced dire conditions, but distinct factors exacerbated the suffering in each region. We integrate historical and palaeoclimatic records to explore the influence of the volcanic cold pulse of the 1690s and its consequences in Scotland. We find that while cooling temperatures characterized the regional to larger-scale climate, vulnerability and response potential were diverse and shaped by local circumstances. The Scottish crisis of the 1690s, in the context of the kingdom's failing economy, influenced investors from all parts of society, including the nobility and entire communities, to fund the ill-fated expedition to colonize Darien in modern-day Panama. The climate crisis and the colony's collapse hindered Scotland's already sluggish economy, motivating unification with England soon after.

What influence did climate have on disease in Late Antiquity? Natural archives of pre-instrumenta... more What influence did climate have on disease in Late Antiquity? Natural archives of pre-instrumental temperature indicate significant summer cooling throughout the period. The coolest stretch spanned the 6th and 7th c., and corresponds startlingly to the appearance of the Justinianic Plague in the Mediterranean region. Drawing on principles from landscape epidemiology, this paper marries textual evidence for disease with palaeoclimatic data, in order to understand how gradual and dramatic climatic change, the 535-50 downturn especially, may have altered the pathogenic burden carried in Late Antiquity. Particular attention is paid to the Justinianic Plague, but the potential impacts of a changing climate on malaria and non-yersinial, non-plague, epidemics are not overlooked.

How is history relevant to the present, or indeed the future? Governments around the world have u... more How is history relevant to the present, or indeed the future? Governments around the world have used history to inform planning and decision-making in various fields for years, but more recently it has taken on a renewed importance as governments grapple with increasingly complex challenges arising from the impacts of climatic change. Yet identifying "lessons from the past" is not straightforward. Especially in the case of big questions about historical structures and social processes, establishing precise causal relationships is complex and interpretive, making consensus difficult among specialists. A second major challenge arises over the uses of history. Historical precedent can and does play a role in some contexts in helping formulate new strategies for addressing local environmental challenges. At the national level policy-makers and politicians often look to the past for inspiration, guidance, or justification. In both respects, the cases and examples chosen are often highly selective and tend to align with pre-existing assumptions. This article briefly reviews these challenges within the context of climate change and associated environmental and sustainability issues, comments on recent work in the field, and suggests some ways forward for historians. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

this paper would not have been written. When John started to engage with environmental history an... more this paper would not have been written. When John started to engage with environmental history and to integrate the natural sciences into the history and archaeology of late antiquity, he sought not to go it alone or to juggle scientific data which historians are not trained to produce or use, but to assemble and maintain an interdisciplinary team of scholars, a network of people trained in different fields but interested in similar questions. This approach has characterized John's outputs over the last decade, from the 2008 Lake Nar study in The Holocene. Through the annual colloquia and workshops of the Climate Change and History Research Initiative (CCHRI. princeton.edu), which John founded in 2013, we have come together oen to learn from each other and to work collaboratively. Our experience has taught us that our data and methods, carefully integrated, complement each other and allow us to write histories we otherwise could not. We have expanded our multidisciplinary knowledge and opened our horizons. To John, his industriousness, his drive, and his gregarious and collegial spirit, we are indebted. 1 Among the better-known early studies are J. H, Der schwarze Tod, Berlin 1832; F. G, The Great Pestilence (A. D. 1348-9), London 1893. 2 Late antique plague appeared in several early formative studies of late antiquity, such as J. B, A History of the Later Roman Empire from Arcadius to Irene,

De annis climactericis, pp. 726-27. Hahn's thinking contrasted sharply with others at the time, s... more De annis climactericis, pp. 726-27. Hahn's thinking contrasted sharply with others at the time, such as Johannes Friend, who voiced his belief that the Greeks were unacquainted with smallpox in his history of medicine, published and translated multiple times both before and a er the appearance of Hahn's treatise:

Late antique plague has never been more contested. Recent scholarship has repeatedly questioned w... more Late antique plague has never been more contested. Recent scholarship has repeatedly questioned whether the Justinianic plague caused catastrophic mortality and supporters of the traditional narrative of a vast, depopulating sixth-century pandemic have dug in. Scholars have repeatedly assessed evidence thought to prove traditional narratives about the Justinianic plague, but never to everyone's liking. Things have gotten ugly and no resolution is in sight. To advance the debate and shift the focus, these pages review the use of the Black Death in accounts of the Justinianic plague. What follows demonstrates that the claim the sixth-century pandemic killed many millions is founded on centuries of uncritical treatment of late antique sources reinforced in recent generations via the overinterpretation of the first pandemic's plague diagnosis and the neglect of plague's ecological and epidemiological complexities. That the Justinianic plague was another Black Death underpins research agendas and influences the interpretation of data in diverse fields, but it is an unsubstantiated claim, one stemming from deficient interdisciplinarity and neither proven by current evidence nor provable with current methods. Only by strengthening interdisciplinary collaboration, it is proposed in closing, can we begin to remedy our first-pandemic plague problems. KEYWORDS plague, Yersinia pestis, Justinianic plague, disease history, black death, pandemic

Historians of medicine and disease have yet to think through a syndemic lens. This commentary aim... more Historians of medicine and disease have yet to think through a syndemic lens. This commentary aims to point out why they should. Although there are several hurdles to overcome, our histories of disease and our understanding of current syndemics both stand to gain should historians begin to explore episodes of cooccurring diseases that share root causes.

Smallpox, caused by the variola virus (VARV), is prominent in modern histories of the ancient Med... more Smallpox, caused by the variola virus (VARV), is prominent in modern histories of the ancient Mediterranean world. The disease, or the diagnosis of it, has shaped estimations of the scale and significance of epidemics and pandemics, notably the 2nd-c. Antonine plague, and the burden of disease in large cities and regions densely populated in antiquity. Here we synthesize recent paleogenetic and evolutionary biological literature that casts significant doubt on the existence of a VARV that caused a disease we would recognizeclinically, ecologically, or epidemiologicallyas smallpox in antiquity. On the basis of current data, it is time archaeologists and historians began to eradicate smallpox from their histories of the ancient world.

Facing a warming climate, many tropical species-including the arthropod vectors of several infect... more Facing a warming climate, many tropical species-including the arthropod vectors of several infectious diseases-will be displaced to higher latitudes and elevations. These shifts are frequently projected for the future, but rarely documented in the present day. Here, we use one of the most comprehensive datasets ever compiled by medical entomologists to track the observed range limits of African malaria mosquito vectors (Anopheles spp.) from 1898 to 2016. Using a simple regression approach, we estimate that these species' ranges gained an average of 6.5 m of elevation per year, and the southern limits of their ranges moved polewards 4.7 km per year. These shifts would be consistent with the local velocity of recent climate change, and might help explain the incursion of malaria transmission into new areas over the past few decades. Confirming that climate change underlies these shifts, and applying similar methods to other disease vectors, are important directions for future research.

The late antique (ca. mid. 5th century CE) infant and child cemetery at Poggio Gramignano near Lu... more The late antique (ca. mid. 5th century CE) infant and child cemetery at Poggio Gramignano near Lugnano in Teverina (Umbria, Italy) is well-known for its association with malaria. However, less is known about the community members most closely connected to this cemetery space-in particular, the the infants' mothers. This paper more closely explores the health of the 62 individuals who have been recovered from the cemetery to date with the goal of exploring maternal health status at the time of infant death. Skeletal pathologies are reconsidered within the specific context of the placental fetal environment. Using a biocultural framework and analysis of nested environments, we explore the likely corresponding health of these infants' mothers during late pregnancy and breastfeeding, taking into consideration the wider context of social and cultural factors that mediated Roman women's behaviour, status, and access to resources in rural late antique Umbria. We conclude that these factors, combined with disease stress, profoundly shaped the fertility, morbidity, and mortality of this late antique community. In this context, fetal and perinatal health serve as a useful proxy for community health in the absence of adult remains.

[

The influence that meteorological, climatological and environmental factors had on historical dis... more The influence that meteorological, climatological and environmental factors had on historical disease outbreaks is often speculated upon, but little investigated. Here, we explore potential associations between pandemic disease and climate over the last 2,500 years in Mediterranean history, focusing on ancient disease outbreaks and the Justinianic plague in particular. We underscore variation in the quality, quantity and interpretation of written evidence and proxy information from natural archives, the comlexity of identifying and disentangling past climatological and environmental drivers, and the need to integrate diverse methodologies to discern past climate-disease linkages and leverage historical experiences to prepare for the rapid expansion of novel pathogenic diseases. Although the difficulties entailed in establishing historical climate-pandemic linkages persist to the present, this is a research area as urgent as it is complex and historical perspectives are desperately needed.

We are thankful that Mischa Meier has engaged with our work. Further discussion of the Justiniani... more We are thankful that Mischa Meier has engaged with our work. Further discussion of the Justinianic Plague will only present new avenues forward and improve everyone's understanding of late antiquity. Meier's second response raises questions that have wider implications within the historical discipline and are worth discussing more closely. He claimed we argue that:

Existing mortality estimates assert that the Justinianic Plague (circa 541 to 750 CE) caused tens... more Existing mortality estimates assert that the Justinianic Plague (circa 541 to 750 CE) caused tens of millions of deaths throughout the Mediterranean world and Europe, helping to end antiquity and start the Middle Ages. In this article, we argue that this paradigm does not fit the evidence. We examine a series of independent quantitative and qualitative datasets that are directly or indirectly linked to demographic and economic trends during this two-century period: Written sources, legislation, coinage, papyri, inscriptions, pollen, ancient DNA, and mortuary archaeology. Individually or together, they fail to support the maximalist paradigm: None has a clear independent link to plague outbreaks and none supports maximalist reconstructions of late antique plague. Instead of large-scale, disruptive mortality, when contextualized and examined together, the datasets suggest continuity across the plague period. Although demographic, economic, and political changes continued between the 6th and 8th centuries, the evidence does not support the now commonplace claim that the Justinianic Plague was a primary causal factor of them.

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/51/25546

Recent work has linked historical crises, both regional and local, with palaeoclimatic estimates ... more Recent work has linked historical crises, both regional and local, with palaeoclimatic estimates of global and hemispheric climate change. Such studies tend to underemphasize the spatiotemporal and socioeconomical disparity of human suffering and adaptive capacity as well as the complexities of past climate change. We focus herein on the effects in Scotland of a severely cold climate episode in the 1690s, associated with major tropical volcanic events including a large unidentified tropical eruption in 1695. A tree-ring based summer temperature reconstruction from the northern Cairngorms region identifies the 1690s as the coldest decade in Scotland for the last 750 years. Archival sources meanwhile reveal the 1690s as likely the worst era of crop failure, food shortage, and mortality ever documented in Scottish history. The connection appears simple-volcanic cooling triggered famine-but the drivers towards famine are far more complex. Although the unusual coldness of the 1690s was near-hemispheric in scale, it had a differential impact across northwestern Europe. Within Scotland, both lowlands and highlands experienced dire conditions, but distinct factors exacerbated the suffering in each region. We integrate historical and palaeoclimatic records to explore the influence of the volcanic cold pulse of the 1690s and its consequences in Scotland. We find that while cooling temperatures characterized the regional to larger-scale climate, vulnerability and response potential were diverse and shaped by local circumstances. The Scottish crisis of the 1690s, in the context of the kingdom's failing economy, influenced investors from all parts of society, including the nobility and entire communities, to fund the ill-fated expedition to colonize Darien in modern-day Panama. The climate crisis and the colony's collapse hindered Scotland's already sluggish economy, motivating unification with England soon after.

What influence did climate have on disease in Late Antiquity? Natural archives of pre-instrumenta... more What influence did climate have on disease in Late Antiquity? Natural archives of pre-instrumental temperature indicate significant summer cooling throughout the period. The coolest stretch spanned the 6th and 7th c., and corresponds startlingly to the appearance of the Justinianic Plague in the Mediterranean region. Drawing on principles from landscape epidemiology, this paper marries textual evidence for disease with palaeoclimatic data, in order to understand how gradual and dramatic climatic change, the 535-50 downturn especially, may have altered the pathogenic burden carried in Late Antiquity. Particular attention is paid to the Justinianic Plague, but the potential impacts of a changing climate on malaria and non-yersinial, non-plague, epidemics are not overlooked.

East of the Elbe presents the results of the fourth international conference of the interdiscipli... more East of the Elbe presents the results of the fourth international conference of the interdisciplinary project "Gentes trans Albiam -Europe East of the Elbe in the Middle Ages, " held in at York University, Toronto. The fi een essays included in this collection examine how historical landscapes were perceived, experienced and transformed in the middle ages, in a region that stretched from the lands of the western Slavs in the Elbe area to Livonia and Staraia Ladoga in the northeast and Hungary in the south. The book is organized into four parts, each covering a di erent region and era: Central Europe in the early middle ages; Wagria in the central middle ages; Silesia, Poland and Hungary in the high middle ages; and, lastly, the Baltic Sea area in the high and late middle ages.

A symposium on the 1917-19 influenza pandemic, 17 October 2018, Georgetown University.

The Climate Change and History Research Initiative (CCHRI), a three-year project at Princeton Uni... more The Climate Change and History Research Initiative (CCHRI), a three-year project at Princeton University, is holding a workshop for pre-modernists in September 2016 on palaeoclimatology and palynology. This entry-level is geared towards younger scholars (junior faculty members and graduate students) from the humanities and social sciences and requires no previous knowledge of either subject. The workshop focuses on palynology and the reconstruction of past temperature, precipitation and environmental changes from natural archives in the form of sediments. Renowned scholars Neil Roberts (Plymouth University) and Warren Eastwood (University of Birmingham) will lead the workshop. Both have published extensively on climate reconstruction and palynology.

An interdisciplinary workshop at Princeton University, 1-3 May 2015.

Beginning this fall, a new workshop series will be held at Princeton University to focus on dendr... more Beginning this fall, a new workshop series will be held at Princeton University to focus on dendroclimatology and the reconstruction of past temperature, precipitation and environmental changes from natural and documentary archives. The intensive workshops are considered entry-level and geared towards History and Archaeology graduate students and junior faculty, from Princeton as well as from other universities, and require no previous knowledge of the subjects.

Kyle Harper's The Fate of Rome, written for a popular audi

This is the second of a three‐section review of Kyle Harper's The Fate of Rome in which we examin... more This is the second of a three‐section review of Kyle Harper's The Fate of Rome in which we examine in detail Harper's treatment of two allegedly widespread and mortal Roman outbreaks of disease. In the case of the second‐ century Antonine plague, we demonstrate that Harper overlooked a major controversy and instead portrayed an oversimplified narrative of a catastrophic event. In the case of the third‐century Cyprianic plague, we call attention to several glaring methodological issues in Harper's treatment of the episode, point out the absence of corresponding evidence in the papyri, and cast doubt on the linkage previously drawn between the plague and archaeology.

This is the last of a three‐part review of Kyle Harper's The Fate of Rome. Here, we scrutinize Ha... more This is the last of a three‐part review of Kyle Harper's The Fate of Rome. Here, we scrutinize Harper's treatment of the Justinianic Plague, demonstrating how he crafts a convincing narrative based on rhetorical flourishes but little evidence. We call further attention to several internal contradictions within the chapter and misinterpretations of evidence. We conclude this series of articles with a reflection on Harper's deterministic approach to environmental history. While the environment appears everywhere, agency (people: society and culture) is mostly absent. We finish by emphasizing the need to develop more nuanced causal explanations for complex historical processes and suggest that future attempts to bring together such wide‐ranging material be done within interdisciplinary research teams.