Kevin Fleming | Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam (original) (raw)

Papers by Kevin Fleming

Research paper thumbnail of Geoid change about Greenland resulting from past and present-day changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, Dec 1, 2003

Research paper thumbnail of Hydrogeological characterisation of groundwater over Brazil using remotely sensed and model products

Science of The Total Environment, Dec 1, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of Assessing policy preferences amongst Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction stakeholders using gamified scenarios

Research paper thumbnail of New Multi-Hazard and Multi-Risk Assessment Methods for Europe. Risk governance and the communication process from science to policy: Evaluating perceptions of stakeholders from practice in multi-hazard and multi-risk decision support models: MATRIX results II and Reference Report

Research paper thumbnail of The effects of the uncertainties in geothermal heat flux distribution on the present-day Greenland Ice Sheet

Research paper thumbnail of New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe

AGUFM, Dec 1, 2011

ABSTRACT Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural ha... more ABSTRACT Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.

Research paper thumbnail of Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

Research paper thumbnail of Revised seismic hazard map for the Kyrgyz Republic

Research paper thumbnail of The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network

Research paper thumbnail of The Mass balance modelling of Spitzbergen glaciers

Research paper thumbnail of Glacial rebound and sea-level change : constraints on the Greenland ice sheet

Research paper thumbnail of Using serious gaming to explore how uncertainty affects stakeholder decision-making across the science-policy divide during disasters

International journal of disaster risk reduction, Dec 1, 2020

Research paper thumbnail of Bridging the Gap Between Seismology and Engineering: Towards Real-Time Damage Assessment

Geotechnical, geological and earthquake engineering, 2018

The development of earthquake early warning systems over the last decade has seen a number of stu... more The development of earthquake early warning systems over the last decade has seen a number of studies that have focused either on improving the real-time estimation of seismological parameters, or on the rapid characterization of the possible damage suffered by a structure. However, the rapid increase in real-time seismic networks with stations installed in both the free field and inside buildings now offers the opportunity to combine the experience gained from these activities to develop a comprehensive real-time damage assessment scheme that, depending upon the time frame and spatial scale of interest, can provide useful information for a risk-based early warning system or for rapid loss assessment. Furthermore, newly developed instruments, with their enhanced computing capabilities, also offer the chance to combine early-warning procedures with the monitoring (during seismic crises) of a structure’s behavior. In this paper, an overview of the state of the art in this multidisciplinary field will be given, and an outlook provided as to possible future developments.

Research paper thumbnail of On‐Site Early Warning and Rapid Damage Forecasting Using Single Stations: Outcomes from the REAKT Project

Seismological Research Letters, Jul 22, 2015

Research paper thumbnail of Effects of uncertainties in the geothermal heat flux distribution on the Greenland Ice Sheet: An assessment of existing heat flow models

Journal of Geophysical Research, May 22, 2012

Research paper thumbnail of Risikoanalysen in Zentralasien

Research paper thumbnail of The New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX) Project - An overview of its major findings

EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, May 1, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of The use of serious games in engaging stakeholders for disaster risk reduction, management and climate change adaption information elicitation

International journal of disaster risk reduction, Oct 1, 2020

Abstract Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), Disaster Risk Management (DRM), and Climate Change Adapta... more Abstract Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), Disaster Risk Management (DRM), and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) involve a variety of stakeholders with different backgrounds, organizational frameworks, divergent concerns, and sometimes competing agendas. This requires forums where such groups can meet in order to enhance understanding, reconcile different views, and potentially assist each other in meeting their respective goals. One means of establishing such an exchange involves serious games. During the ESPREssO (Enhancing Synergies for disaster Prevention in the European Union) project, three such games, referred to as RAMSETE (Risk Assessment Model Simulation for Emergency Training Exercise), were developed. They were based on table-top, role-playing, scenario-based exercises, and their purpose was for stakeholder information elicitation about policy issues related to DRR, DRM, and CCA. Participants in the exercises were assigned roles where they interacted and negotiated in order to deal with the presented scenarios. The scenarios were primarily concerned with selecting an optimal set of policies to deal best with the issue in question. The games, while sometimes including an operational element, were meant to examine the motivations behind the decisions made, rather than to test or to train in response protocols. The participants in general found the games to be useful for framing discussions about complex issues, while their problem-solving character was appreciated and enjoyed. Such games allow stakeholders to openly discuss and challenge ideas, policies, and processes in a manner they would not normally do in their daily activities, with other professionals who they would not necessarily be in frequent contact with.

Research paper thumbnail of RAMSETE I: Assessing policy preferences amongst climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction stakeholders using serious gaming

International journal of disaster risk reduction, 2020

Research paper thumbnail of Applicability and limitations of large-scale ice-sheet modeling for constraining subglacial geothermal heat flux

EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2012

ABSTRACT In recent years, a number of studies have addressed the problem of constraining subglaci... more ABSTRACT In recent years, a number of studies have addressed the problem of constraining subglacial geothermal heat flow (SGHF) patterns within the context of thermodynamic ice-sheet modeling. This study reports on the potential of today's ice-sheet modeling methods and, more importantly, their limitations, with respect to reproducing the thermal states of the present-day large-scale ice sheets. So far, SGHF-related ice-sheet studies have suggested two alternative approaches for obtaining the present-day ice-sheet temperature distribution: (i) paleoclimatic simulations driven by the past surface temperature reconstructions, and (ii) fixed-topography steady-state simulations driven by the present-day climate conditions. Both approaches suffer from a number of shortcomings that are not easily amended. Paleoclimatic simulations account for past climate variations and produce more realistic present-day ice temperature distribution. However, in some areas, our knowledge of past climate forcing is subject to larger uncertainties that exert a significant influence on both the modeled basal temperatures and ice thicknesses, as demonstrated by our sensitivity case study applied to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). In some regions of the GIS, for example southern Greenland, the poorly known climate forcing causes a significant deviation of the modeled ice thickness from the measured values (up to 200 meters) and makes it impossible to fit the measured basal temperature and gradient unless the climate history forcing is improved. Since present-day ice thickness is a product of both climate history and SGHF forcing, uncertainties in either boundary condition integrated over the simulation time will lead to a misfit between the modeled and observed ice sheets. By contrast, the fixed-topography steady-state approach allows one to avoid the above-mentioned transient effects and fit perfectly the observed present-day ice surface topography. However, the temperature distribution resulting from steady-state simulations strongly depends on the choice of the present-day climate forcing. Thus, employing average temperature/precipitation forcings from either the end of the 20th century or the beginning of the 21st century leads to differences of 5-10 mW/m2 in the predicted SGHF values. Regardless of the climate forcing employed, a close match between the measured and modeled basal temperatures can be easily achieved by varying the SGHF forcing. Yet this approach fails to reproduce the shape of measured temperature profiles, nor the measured basal temperature gradients. We conclude that a use of steady-state simulations is unlikely to lead to correct estimations for SGHF values, whereas paleoclimatic simulations are potentially capable of producing quantitative estimations of the SGHF distribution, depending on the quality of the climate forcing.

Research paper thumbnail of Geoid change about Greenland resulting from past and present-day changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet

AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, Dec 1, 2003

Research paper thumbnail of Hydrogeological characterisation of groundwater over Brazil using remotely sensed and model products

Science of The Total Environment, Dec 1, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of Assessing policy preferences amongst Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction stakeholders using gamified scenarios

Research paper thumbnail of New Multi-Hazard and Multi-Risk Assessment Methods for Europe. Risk governance and the communication process from science to policy: Evaluating perceptions of stakeholders from practice in multi-hazard and multi-risk decision support models: MATRIX results II and Reference Report

Research paper thumbnail of The effects of the uncertainties in geothermal heat flux distribution on the present-day Greenland Ice Sheet

Research paper thumbnail of New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe

AGUFM, Dec 1, 2011

ABSTRACT Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural ha... more ABSTRACT Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.

Research paper thumbnail of Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

Research paper thumbnail of Revised seismic hazard map for the Kyrgyz Republic

Research paper thumbnail of The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network

Research paper thumbnail of The Mass balance modelling of Spitzbergen glaciers

Research paper thumbnail of Glacial rebound and sea-level change : constraints on the Greenland ice sheet

Research paper thumbnail of Using serious gaming to explore how uncertainty affects stakeholder decision-making across the science-policy divide during disasters

International journal of disaster risk reduction, Dec 1, 2020

Research paper thumbnail of Bridging the Gap Between Seismology and Engineering: Towards Real-Time Damage Assessment

Geotechnical, geological and earthquake engineering, 2018

The development of earthquake early warning systems over the last decade has seen a number of stu... more The development of earthquake early warning systems over the last decade has seen a number of studies that have focused either on improving the real-time estimation of seismological parameters, or on the rapid characterization of the possible damage suffered by a structure. However, the rapid increase in real-time seismic networks with stations installed in both the free field and inside buildings now offers the opportunity to combine the experience gained from these activities to develop a comprehensive real-time damage assessment scheme that, depending upon the time frame and spatial scale of interest, can provide useful information for a risk-based early warning system or for rapid loss assessment. Furthermore, newly developed instruments, with their enhanced computing capabilities, also offer the chance to combine early-warning procedures with the monitoring (during seismic crises) of a structure’s behavior. In this paper, an overview of the state of the art in this multidisciplinary field will be given, and an outlook provided as to possible future developments.

Research paper thumbnail of On‐Site Early Warning and Rapid Damage Forecasting Using Single Stations: Outcomes from the REAKT Project

Seismological Research Letters, Jul 22, 2015

Research paper thumbnail of Effects of uncertainties in the geothermal heat flux distribution on the Greenland Ice Sheet: An assessment of existing heat flow models

Journal of Geophysical Research, May 22, 2012

Research paper thumbnail of Risikoanalysen in Zentralasien

Research paper thumbnail of The New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX) Project - An overview of its major findings

EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, May 1, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of The use of serious games in engaging stakeholders for disaster risk reduction, management and climate change adaption information elicitation

International journal of disaster risk reduction, Oct 1, 2020

Abstract Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), Disaster Risk Management (DRM), and Climate Change Adapta... more Abstract Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), Disaster Risk Management (DRM), and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) involve a variety of stakeholders with different backgrounds, organizational frameworks, divergent concerns, and sometimes competing agendas. This requires forums where such groups can meet in order to enhance understanding, reconcile different views, and potentially assist each other in meeting their respective goals. One means of establishing such an exchange involves serious games. During the ESPREssO (Enhancing Synergies for disaster Prevention in the European Union) project, three such games, referred to as RAMSETE (Risk Assessment Model Simulation for Emergency Training Exercise), were developed. They were based on table-top, role-playing, scenario-based exercises, and their purpose was for stakeholder information elicitation about policy issues related to DRR, DRM, and CCA. Participants in the exercises were assigned roles where they interacted and negotiated in order to deal with the presented scenarios. The scenarios were primarily concerned with selecting an optimal set of policies to deal best with the issue in question. The games, while sometimes including an operational element, were meant to examine the motivations behind the decisions made, rather than to test or to train in response protocols. The participants in general found the games to be useful for framing discussions about complex issues, while their problem-solving character was appreciated and enjoyed. Such games allow stakeholders to openly discuss and challenge ideas, policies, and processes in a manner they would not normally do in their daily activities, with other professionals who they would not necessarily be in frequent contact with.

Research paper thumbnail of RAMSETE I: Assessing policy preferences amongst climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction stakeholders using serious gaming

International journal of disaster risk reduction, 2020

Research paper thumbnail of Applicability and limitations of large-scale ice-sheet modeling for constraining subglacial geothermal heat flux

EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2012

ABSTRACT In recent years, a number of studies have addressed the problem of constraining subglaci... more ABSTRACT In recent years, a number of studies have addressed the problem of constraining subglacial geothermal heat flow (SGHF) patterns within the context of thermodynamic ice-sheet modeling. This study reports on the potential of today's ice-sheet modeling methods and, more importantly, their limitations, with respect to reproducing the thermal states of the present-day large-scale ice sheets. So far, SGHF-related ice-sheet studies have suggested two alternative approaches for obtaining the present-day ice-sheet temperature distribution: (i) paleoclimatic simulations driven by the past surface temperature reconstructions, and (ii) fixed-topography steady-state simulations driven by the present-day climate conditions. Both approaches suffer from a number of shortcomings that are not easily amended. Paleoclimatic simulations account for past climate variations and produce more realistic present-day ice temperature distribution. However, in some areas, our knowledge of past climate forcing is subject to larger uncertainties that exert a significant influence on both the modeled basal temperatures and ice thicknesses, as demonstrated by our sensitivity case study applied to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). In some regions of the GIS, for example southern Greenland, the poorly known climate forcing causes a significant deviation of the modeled ice thickness from the measured values (up to 200 meters) and makes it impossible to fit the measured basal temperature and gradient unless the climate history forcing is improved. Since present-day ice thickness is a product of both climate history and SGHF forcing, uncertainties in either boundary condition integrated over the simulation time will lead to a misfit between the modeled and observed ice sheets. By contrast, the fixed-topography steady-state approach allows one to avoid the above-mentioned transient effects and fit perfectly the observed present-day ice surface topography. However, the temperature distribution resulting from steady-state simulations strongly depends on the choice of the present-day climate forcing. Thus, employing average temperature/precipitation forcings from either the end of the 20th century or the beginning of the 21st century leads to differences of 5-10 mW/m2 in the predicted SGHF values. Regardless of the climate forcing employed, a close match between the measured and modeled basal temperatures can be easily achieved by varying the SGHF forcing. Yet this approach fails to reproduce the shape of measured temperature profiles, nor the measured basal temperature gradients. We conclude that a use of steady-state simulations is unlikely to lead to correct estimations for SGHF values, whereas paleoclimatic simulations are potentially capable of producing quantitative estimations of the SGHF distribution, depending on the quality of the climate forcing.