3.0T1 Training Materials: Video "Scenario selection" (original) (raw)

Video: "Scenario selection"

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Welcome to this video on “Scenario Selection” in the FABLE Calculator. Our objective is to help you learn how the selection of different scenarios affects the main results.

In the last video of the Introduction to the FABLE Calculator, we reviewed how to change the scenario selection of Population Projections, and we suggested to check how this would affect the results. Let us continue!

For this it is important to revise which results are calculated in the FABLE model. As you can see in the yellow worksheets, the main results are shown in the calculator as follows:

1.- Human demand is shown in the FOOD worksheet, measured in the first table as Daily Food Intake per Capita, and differentiated in the following graphs, for example, by product

2.- Biodiversity is shown in the BIODIVERSITY worksheet, measured in various land-based indicators

3.- Area by land cover is shown in the LAND worksheet, with various graphs highlighting different changes in land

4.- Computed greenhouse gas emissions by sector is shown in the GHG worksheet

5.- And water footprint is shown in the WATER worksheet.

There are many changes throughout the model that are triggered when one selects a different scenario. (CHANGE SLIDES) For example, an increase in the variation of population might lead to an increase in human demand for livestock and crop products, which will have an effect on cropland and pasture needed to produce these products. This will then have an effect on sustainability indicators, such as the land that can support biodiversity, the resulting greenhouse gas emissions per type of land, and the water footprint. As you can see in many of these comparisons, the scale of the y axis has changed, incorporating such changes.

Given that for some countries, the increase of population is not a factor they can control in a significant way, the FABLE calculator allows us to explore different scenarios which could perhaps mitigate the impacts reviewed in previous slides. A scenario change that one could think of in this direction is diets. If the population of a country will increase in the future, then to counter- balance the resulting increase in pasture, the diet scenario can change from a diet high in meat consumption to one switching to other protein source, like nuts.

First, one thing to note is that an increase in population does not necessarily lead to a change in average daily food intake per capita. Why do you think this is the case?

Right now, the Diet scenario selected is “EATLancetAverage”, which is a healthier diet scenario than “Fat Diet”. Let us select the scenario of Fat Diet. As you can see in this graph comparison of the results of this change in the FOOD worksheet, the change is more pronounced in the last years of the projection, which has to do with the way we define the scenario, or the implementation rate, as we will learn in the next video. One last thing to check is: once you have made this change in diets, also review the resulting effects in the other yellow worksheets, for example LAND. How does land change with an increase in population variation AND an increase in the fat content of diets? What are the implications of this change in land cover?

Another scenario change which could mitigate the impacts of population growth on pasture is an increase in productivity: higher population growth could lead to an increase in pasture, but this increase could be lessened by an increase in productivity in livestock production. That is: for the same unit of land, more tons of animal products could be obtained. Look at the way land changes with such a different livestock productivity scenario. How can you explain the different changes in land cover? Lastly, let us review what happens when we assume a scenario of protected area expansion, vs one with no expansion. One of the main changes we see is in the BIODIVERSITY worksheet, in the graph “Land cover in protected areas”. What other changes would you expect in other results?

Now that we have learned how to change scenarios, and where to look for the differences in results, the next step is to adapt these changes in a more subtle way, in the “Scenario Definition” Worksheet. What other changes do you think could be made to a scenario, aside from choosing among these alternatives? We will review some of these changes in the next video.

----------------------------------- Content ------------------------------------

0:00 - Welcome

0:34 - Yellow worksheets: Main Results

0:50 - FOOD Worksheet

1:04 – BIODIVERSITY Worksheet

1:13 - LAND Worksheet

1:21 – GHG Worksheet

1:27 – WATER Worksheet

1:31 – Changing Population Projections scenario

2:20 – Compensating population growth: Diet scenario change

3:52 – Compensating population growth: Livestock productivity scenario change

4:24 – Changing Protected Area Expansion scenario