3.8 Climate change (original) (raw)
Climate change impacts are introduced as shifters applied to crop yields, crop water requirements, and fertilizer use for each time step between 2015 and 2050. We use climate change impact data for both irrigated and rain-fed crops, based on two crop models, GEPIC and LPJmL, for four and twelve crops respectively* from the ISIMIP database (Arneth et al., 2017). The impact estimates are modeled for combinations of four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs; 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5), five global climate models (GCMs; GFDL-ESN2N, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M), and the fertilization effect of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on plants either turned on or off (on for 40 scenarios, off for 24). This results in sixty-four climate change scenarios. Crop yields, crop water requirements, and fertilizer use remain the same as without climate change for the crops not included in GEPIC or LPJmL, respectively.
Table 11. List of tables related to climate change impacts
*Corn, rice, soy, and wheat for GEPIC; cassava, field pea, groundnut, maize, millet, rapeseed, rice, soy, sugarbeet, sugarcane, sunflower, and wheat for LPJmL.