Anton Muscatelli | University of Glasgow (original) (raw)

Papers by Anton Muscatelli

1We bene…tted from detailed suggestions of two anonymous referees and of the editor, David Romer,... more 1We bene…tted from detailed suggestions of two anonymous referees and of the editor, David Romer, as well as from the reactions of Petra Geraats and of participants at the macro lunch seminar at

This chapter provides the importance of understanding a city's connections as well as its bou... more This chapter provides the importance of understanding a city's connections as well as its boundaries. It explores how cities and city policy manifest in terms of the relationships between Westminster and Holy rood, as well as from Holy rood to Scotland's major city-regions. Cities and towns have been the key terrain shaping, and reflecting, Scotland's economic progress for at least 250 years. Policies for Scotland's cities have shifted over time, however the broad thrusts of policies, the framework of core ideas, and the chosen institutions and policy instruments have longer lives. The evolution of Scottish policies for cities was very different and much weaker. Scottish economic and social policy progressed from 1950 for a quarter-century without any explicit commitment to cities policies. In the 1960s the development of the North Sea energy sector turned Aberdeen from a gently declining economy into a major growth locus

International Journal of Water Resources Development, 2019

We are facing a global crisis and the status quo must change if we want to preserve our planet fo... more We are facing a global crisis and the status quo must change if we want to preserve our planet for future generations. The University of Glasgow was the first in Scotland to declare a climate emergency and as a progressive Scottish institution, it is our responsibility to lead the way in promoting sustainable practice. This paper looks at some key examples that provide a model for other nations to adapt their own practices for water and wastewater management. It discusses why Scotland has chosen to view water as a major financial resource for the country and how public-sector bodies collaborate effectively with communities to ensure the people of Scotland reap the benefits of green water management.

Oxford Economic Papers, 1995

... By A. STAN HURN, TERRY MOODY, and V. ANTON MUSCATELLI Department of Political Economy, Univer... more ... By A. STAN HURN, TERRY MOODY, and V. ANTON MUSCATELLI Department of Political Economy, University of Glasgow, Adam Smith Building ... the error resulting from agents' forecasts of these changes; the equilibrium error is as a result of forward looking behaviour (Nickell ...

In this paper we examine how sub-central governments respond to significant changes in their gran... more In this paper we examine how sub-central governments respond to significant changes in their grant allocations. We focus on the reactions of State, Regional and Local governments in fifteen countries over a period of 20 to 30 years to significant exogenous increases and decreases in their grant allocations. We observe that when grants are cut, sub-central governments respond by cutting spending on their wage bill and, disproportionately, on capital expenditure. Therefore, while centrally imposed cuts do result in expenditure restraint at the sub-central level, the composition of the adjustment appears to suffer from short-termism. In addition, our results suggest that sub-central politicians seek to further defend current spending programs by significantly increasing local/regional taxation. In contrast, during periods of significant expansions in grants, these revenues remain constant with the full extent of the grants increase passed on to current expenditures. Taken together thes...

This paper considers the applicability of a « forward-looking intertemporal optimisation » model ... more This paper considers the applicability of a « forward-looking intertemporal optimisation » model of the demand. for money to Italian data for M2 balances. The authors estimate the resulting model using both « errors-in-variables » and « two-stage » estimation methods, and assess the validity of the forward looking model by testing it against a « feedback-only » model using statistical tests for non-nested models. The authors conclude that the « forward-looking » approach yields results which do not compare favourably with those obtained from « feedback-only » models estimated via the familiar « general-to-specific » model selection procedure.

Oxford Economic Papers, 1998

... distortion as a central issue in combating the inflation bias (see Goodhart, 1994), in contra... more ... distortion as a central issue in combating the inflation bias (see Goodhart, 1994), in contrast to the 'institutionalist' approach in Walsh (1995) and Svensson (1997). ... The first draft of this paper was written whilst Anton Muscatelli was a visiting Professor at the University of Bari. ...

The Economic Journal, 1998

This paper examines some problems which arise when monetary policy is delegated to an independent... more This paper examines some problems which arise when monetary policy is delegated to an independent central bank and where the central bank's preferences are unknown. Two key conclusions emerge from the paper. First, even with optimal targets or contracts, central bank independence may not always be desirable because central banks may have distorted preferences relative to society. Second, if the delegation solution is preferable, and the independent central bank responds to information about supply shocks, the central bank may be made more accountable by allowing it to set its own in¯ation targets, i.e. by making it goalindependent. Ã This paper is a major revision and extension of an earlier paper on uncertain central bank preferences presented at the Warwick Workshop on`Central Bank Independence' in May 1996. I am grateful to

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 2003

Summary We present several new measures of gross-output-based total factor productivity (TFP) at ... more Summary We present several new measures of gross-output-based total factor productivity (TFP) at the sectoral level for manufacturing industries in the G-7 economies. We calculate measures of both TFP growth and comparative levels. These are obtained by combining conventional Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development sectoral data on labour and capital inputs with data on intermediate inputs from national input–output tables. Additionally, we derive cyclically corrected measures of TFP growth. Our evidence shows that the considerable gap in TFP between the USA and other G-7 economies is closing but remains significant.

Journal of Monetary Economics, 2000

This paper examines the stability of the demand for money in Italy using a newly extended data se... more This paper examines the stability of the demand for money in Italy using a newly extended data set for the period 1861–1996. We examine how the evolution of the financial system in Italy and policy shifts have affected the behavior of the long-run demand for money, and present tests of structural stability. We find the demand for broad money to

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2007

We present empirical evidence on the forces driving real exchange rates in the long-run. Using da... more We present empirical evidence on the forces driving real exchange rates in the long-run. Using data from the US, UK and Italy across different exchange rate regimes, we find support for the hypothesis that productivity and fiscal shocks matter. However, in some cases fiscal shocks cause depreciations, likely triggered by the monetary accommodation of fiscal shocks. We also find that the traditional Harrode BalassaeSamuelson effect of productivity on real exchange rates is reversed in some cases, which confirms the importance of the distributive sector in driving productivity gains.

Economics Letters, 1997

This paper examines the effects of productivity shocks on US employment. We find strong evidence ... more This paper examines the effects of productivity shocks on US employment. We find strong evidence supporting the presence of `capitalization effects' following technology shocks. Our findings provide empirical verification for a growing theoretical literature on business cycle-employment interactions.

Economica, 1999

This paper compares the relative effectiveness of inflation contracts and inflation targets in th... more This paper compares the relative effectiveness of inflation contracts and inflation targets in the presence of uncertainty regarding the central bank's preferences and the underlying output target. The model explains why discretion may be superior to a delegation solution. We also show that there might be the need to combine inflation targets and contracts with the appointment of a Rogoff-type 'conservative' central banker if contracts and targets cannot be made state-contingent, and that less flexible inflation targets may be appropriate with uncertain central bank preferences.

The authors gratefully acknowledge the CNR for research funding. Anton Muscatelli also wishes to ... more The authors gratefully acknowledge the CNR for research funding. Anton Muscatelli also wishes to thank the Comitato Economisti per Brescia for funding the research visits during which this paper was written. We are grateful to seminar participants at the Banca d'Italia and CESifo Munich for their comments. The usual disclaimer applies.

This paper presents multilayer neural networks used in UK gross domestic product estimation. Thes... more This paper presents multilayer neural networks used in UK gross domestic product estimation. These networks are trained by backpropagation and genetic algorithm based methods. Different from backpropagation guided by gradients of the performance, the genetic algorithm directly evaluates the performance of multiple sets of neural networks in parallel and then uses the analysed results to breed new networks that tend to be better suited to the problems in hand. It is shown that this guided evolution leads to globally optimal networks and more accurate results, with less adjustment of the algorithm needed.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2022

The equilibrium size of a nation state is, in part, the result of a trade-off between the gains f... more The equilibrium size of a nation state is, in part, the result of a trade-off between the gains from scale economies in the provision of public services and the costs of applying uniform policy to heterogeneous cultural, institutional, and geographical fundamentals. Changes in such fundamentals can thus place pressure on states to reform over time. We consider this dynamic state formation process in the context of Scotland within the UK. First, we review the recent research in economic history on the persistence and evolution of such fundamentals. Second, we consider the history of Scotland both before and after the 1707 Act of Union in the light of that broader economic history literature. We conclude with some implications of fundamental persistence for current debates on the place of Scotland within the UK.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2004

We are grateful to John Bradley, Jacques Melitz, Campbell Leith and to colleagues at the Universi... more We are grateful to John Bradley, Jacques Melitz, Campbell Leith and to colleagues at the Universities of Glasgow and Strathclyde for useful comments on some of the material presented here. Julia Darby gratefully acknowledges ESRC funding under the Devolution and Constitutional Change Programme, Award n. L2192102. Graeme Roy acknowledges ESRC funding under the postgraduate scholarship scheme, ESRC award n. R42200134409.