Jack Goldstone | George Mason University (original) (raw)

Papers by Jack Goldstone

Research paper thumbnail of Linking “Micro” to “Macro” Models of State Breakdown to Improve Methods for Political Forecasting

Cliodynamics, Dec 31, 2017

Three predictive problems bedevil our ability to foresee political crises and state breakdown: (1... more Three predictive problems bedevil our ability to foresee political crises and state breakdown: (1) how to tell when a previously stable state falls into a situation of hidden but dangerous instability; (2) how to tell, once a certain level of instability has appeared in the form of protests, riots, or regional rebellions, whether chaos will grow and accelerate into revolution or civil war, or if the protests are likely to be contained and dampen out; and (3) how to tell which individuals and groups are likely to be the main source of mobilization for radical movements, and whether opposition networks will link up, grow and spread, or be isolated and contained. Prior work has focused on each of these problems separately. However, all three issues are crucial to understanding and foreseeing conflict dynamics. These issues operate on different timescales and require separate models. In this article we discuss how better models of each process could be developed and, crucially, integrated with data for a more effective prediction system. A major theoretical challenge for us is to link these different approaches in order to increase their predictive power. A major empirical challenge is to identify data (direct or proxy) that can be used to parameterize, validate, and test our models.

Research paper thumbnail of Charles Tilly. <italic>European Revolutions, 1492–1992</italic>. (The Making of Europe.) Cambridge, Mass.: Blackwell. 1993. Pp. xv, 262. $24.95

The American Historical Review, Oct 1, 1994

Research paper thumbnail of Prospects for Population Policies and Interventions

Research paper thumbnail of Waiting for the revolutions

Research paper thumbnail of Demography and the Future of Democracy

Perspectives on Politics, Feb 21, 2020

The world is in the midst of a demographic recession. This counters what should be a long-term tr... more The world is in the midst of a demographic recession. This counters what should be a long-term trend toward greater democracy. Recent research has shown that progress toward stable democracy is strongly associated with progress in the demographic transition. Since most of the world is rapidly dropping in fertility as more countries complete this transition, democracy should be spreading. However, a resurgence of anxiety, nationalism, and support for strong-man governance is associated with sudden waves of immigration from unfamiliar sources. Because certain parts of the world—mainly Central America, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East—still have very young and rapidly growing populations who suffer from poor economic prospects, adverse climate change, and bad governance, those regions are sending waves of migrants seeking asylum to Europe and the United States, raising anxieties that undermine liberal democratic governance. Global democracy is thus being tugged in opposing directions by current demographic trends. Improving governance in poorer countries to cope with the negative impact of climate change and to create better economic prospects, as well as efforts to reduce fertility, are essential to diminish the surges of migrants and restore the impetus toward democracy that should prevail in mature societies.

Research paper thumbnail of The Once and Future Middle Kingdom: China’s Return to Dominance in the Global Economy

Comparativ, Dec 3, 2018

Im 16. und 17. Jahrhundert fuhrten alle Wege nach China. Die Nachfrage Europas nach chinesischer ... more Im 16. und 17. Jahrhundert fuhrten alle Wege nach China. Die Nachfrage Europas nach chinesischer Seide, Keramik und Tee fuhrte die europaischen Kaufleute in den Orient. Als Europa industrialisiert war, dominierten die Europaer den Welthandel, indem sie eine Reihe von Stutzpunkten und Kolonien in Afrika, im Indischen Ozean und in China errichteten. Heute versucht China, diesen „devianten“ Trend umzukehren und China wieder zu seiner „normalen“ Position als fuhrende Wirtschaftsmacht zu verhelfen. China strebt nach einer Fuhrungsrolle in den Bereichen Wind- und Sonnenenergie, kunstlicher Intelligenz, Elektromobilitat und Quantencomputer, um die beherrschende Macht unter den Volkswirtschaften des 21. Jahrhunderts zu werden. Auserdem errichtet China eigene Stutzpunkte quer durch den Indischen Ozean und nach Sudeuropa, um seine Kontrolle uber diese Handelsrouten wiederherzustellen. Wenn China Erfolghat, wird es die letzten zweihundert Jahre der Weltwirtschaftsgeschichte umkehren und seine fruhere Rolle als Hauptakteur in der globalen Wirtschaft wiederherstellen.

Research paper thumbnail of Will COVID-19 Bring Down Governments? Will It Bring Rebellions and Revolutions?

Oxford University Press eBooks, Apr 29, 2022

This chapter examines how the global COVID-19 pandemic has affected political stability and chang... more This chapter examines how the global COVID-19 pandemic has affected political stability and change in both democracies and autocracies. For the most part, the disease has stabilized regimes. In both autocracies that handled the disease well and democracies with populist rulers (even if they handled the disease poorly), leaders have held or increased their popularity in the wake of the pandemic. Only in a few autocracies that handled the pandemic poorly, such as Belarus, has it had any perceptible impact on the risk of political upheaval. It appears that, as with the global flu pandemic of 1918, the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 will be remembered for its health impact, not for any great political consequences.

Research paper thumbnail of 7. Communist revolutions: Russia, China, and Cuba

Oxford University Press eBooks, Jan 6, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of 9. Color revolutions: The Philippines, Eastern Europe and the USSR, and Ukraine

Oxford University Press eBooks, Jan 6, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of 11. The future of revolutions

Oxford University Press eBooks, Jan 6, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of Foreword: entrepreneurship andglobal growth

Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks, Dec 28, 2010

Research paper thumbnail of From Sociology and Economics to World History

DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals), Aug 1, 2009

World History has only recently emerged as a distinctive and vibrant field of study. Its origins ... more World History has only recently emerged as a distinctive and vibrant field of study. Its origins arose from a cross-fertilization of economics, history, and comparative sociology, and from particular conjunctions of people and places in the 1980s and 1990s. World historians now, thanks to unprecedented access to quantitative historical data and international networks of scholars, can develop increasingly precise, formal, and detailed accounts of changes and comparisons across historical periods. However, our goal is not to create new master narratives or theories that predict a grand historical trajectory for mankind; rather we seek to better understand the similarities and differences among societies, and the likely consequences of those similarities and differences.

Research paper thumbnail of Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World

Social Forces, Mar 1, 1992

What can the great crises of the past teach us about contemporary revolutions? Arguing from an ex... more What can the great crises of the past teach us about contemporary revolutions? Arguing from an exciting and original perspective, Goldstone suggests that great revolutions were the product of 'ecological crises' that occurred when inflexible political, economic, and social institutions were overwhelmed by the cumulative pressure of population growth on limited available resources. Moreover, he contends that the causes of the great revolutions of Europe--the English and French revolutions--were similar to those of the great rebellions of Asia, which shattered dynasties in Ottoman Turkey, China, and Japan. The author observes that revolutions and rebellions have more often produced a crushing state orthodoxy than liberal institutions, leading to the conclusion that perhaps it is vain to expect revolution to bring democracy and economic progress. Instead, contends Goldstone, the path to these goals must begin with respect for individual liberty rather than authoritarian movements of 'national liberation.' Arguing that the threat of revolution is still with us, Goldstone urges us to heed the lessons of the past. He sees in the United States a repetition of the behavior patterns that have led to internal decay and international decline in the past, a situation calling for new leadership and careful attention to the balance between our consumption and our resources. Meticulously researched, forcefully argued, and strikingly original, Revolutions and Rebellions in the Early Modern World is a tour de force by a brilliant young scholar. It is a book that will surely engender much discussion and debate.

Research paper thumbnail of Ideology, Cultural Frameworks, Revolutionary Struggles, and State Reconstruction

Research paper thumbnail of The Great and Little Divergence: Where Lies the True Onset of Modern Economic Growth?

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015

Recent efforts to identify the emergence of modern economic growth claim to find its origins in a... more Recent efforts to identify the emergence of modern economic growth claim to find its origins in a "Little Divergence" in northwest Europe beginning in the 1500s, in which Holland and Britain entered on an early phase of modern economic growth. This argument, based on new data on GDP/capita as well as older data on comparative real wages, would overturn the views of the California School world historians who argue for a relatively late economic separation of Britain from the rest of the world, occurring only in the second half of the 1700s. However, on closer examination the new GDP/capita do not support a "Little Divergence." Instead, they show a pattern typical of pre-modern "efflorescences" in Holland and Britain before 1800 that were clearly petering out, just as had occurred in earlier efflorescences in Song China and Renaissance Italy. According to the new data, at no point after 1600 and before 1780 did any nation in Europe experience both significant population growth and significant per capita income growth, as would be necessary for modern economic growth to have emerged. The new GDP/capita data make it clear that in fact China and Europeboth in their leading regions and overallwere on very similar economic trajectories until after 1800. These findings from the new macro-level GDP/capita data are further reinforced by new findings from micro-level data on health and nutrition, based on household income analysis, heights, and mortality. Together, the macro and micro-data make a compelling case that there was no "Little Divergence" launch pad for modern economic growth; modern economic growth arose only in a late "Great Divergence" after 1800.

Research paper thumbnail of The Puritan Moment: The Coming of Revolution in an English County

The American Historical Review, 1984

Research paper thumbnail of Nationalism: Five Roads to Modernity

The American Historical Review, 1993

Nationalism is a movement and a state of mind that brings together national identity, consciousne... more Nationalism is a movement and a state of mind that brings together national identity, consciousness, and collectivities. It accomplished the great transformation from the old order to modernity; it placed imagination above production, distribution, and exchange; and it ...

Research paper thumbnail of Why and where did modern economic growth begin?

Tijdschrift voor sociale en economische geschiedenis, Jun 15, 2015

Research paper thumbnail of A review essay on End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration by Peter Turchin (Penguin Random House 2023)

Research paper thumbnail of Imminent political conflicts arising from China's environmental crises

Research paper thumbnail of Linking “Micro” to “Macro” Models of State Breakdown to Improve Methods for Political Forecasting

Cliodynamics, Dec 31, 2017

Three predictive problems bedevil our ability to foresee political crises and state breakdown: (1... more Three predictive problems bedevil our ability to foresee political crises and state breakdown: (1) how to tell when a previously stable state falls into a situation of hidden but dangerous instability; (2) how to tell, once a certain level of instability has appeared in the form of protests, riots, or regional rebellions, whether chaos will grow and accelerate into revolution or civil war, or if the protests are likely to be contained and dampen out; and (3) how to tell which individuals and groups are likely to be the main source of mobilization for radical movements, and whether opposition networks will link up, grow and spread, or be isolated and contained. Prior work has focused on each of these problems separately. However, all three issues are crucial to understanding and foreseeing conflict dynamics. These issues operate on different timescales and require separate models. In this article we discuss how better models of each process could be developed and, crucially, integrated with data for a more effective prediction system. A major theoretical challenge for us is to link these different approaches in order to increase their predictive power. A major empirical challenge is to identify data (direct or proxy) that can be used to parameterize, validate, and test our models.

Research paper thumbnail of Charles Tilly. <italic>European Revolutions, 1492–1992</italic>. (The Making of Europe.) Cambridge, Mass.: Blackwell. 1993. Pp. xv, 262. $24.95

The American Historical Review, Oct 1, 1994

Research paper thumbnail of Prospects for Population Policies and Interventions

Research paper thumbnail of Waiting for the revolutions

Research paper thumbnail of Demography and the Future of Democracy

Perspectives on Politics, Feb 21, 2020

The world is in the midst of a demographic recession. This counters what should be a long-term tr... more The world is in the midst of a demographic recession. This counters what should be a long-term trend toward greater democracy. Recent research has shown that progress toward stable democracy is strongly associated with progress in the demographic transition. Since most of the world is rapidly dropping in fertility as more countries complete this transition, democracy should be spreading. However, a resurgence of anxiety, nationalism, and support for strong-man governance is associated with sudden waves of immigration from unfamiliar sources. Because certain parts of the world—mainly Central America, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East—still have very young and rapidly growing populations who suffer from poor economic prospects, adverse climate change, and bad governance, those regions are sending waves of migrants seeking asylum to Europe and the United States, raising anxieties that undermine liberal democratic governance. Global democracy is thus being tugged in opposing directions by current demographic trends. Improving governance in poorer countries to cope with the negative impact of climate change and to create better economic prospects, as well as efforts to reduce fertility, are essential to diminish the surges of migrants and restore the impetus toward democracy that should prevail in mature societies.

Research paper thumbnail of The Once and Future Middle Kingdom: China’s Return to Dominance in the Global Economy

Comparativ, Dec 3, 2018

Im 16. und 17. Jahrhundert fuhrten alle Wege nach China. Die Nachfrage Europas nach chinesischer ... more Im 16. und 17. Jahrhundert fuhrten alle Wege nach China. Die Nachfrage Europas nach chinesischer Seide, Keramik und Tee fuhrte die europaischen Kaufleute in den Orient. Als Europa industrialisiert war, dominierten die Europaer den Welthandel, indem sie eine Reihe von Stutzpunkten und Kolonien in Afrika, im Indischen Ozean und in China errichteten. Heute versucht China, diesen „devianten“ Trend umzukehren und China wieder zu seiner „normalen“ Position als fuhrende Wirtschaftsmacht zu verhelfen. China strebt nach einer Fuhrungsrolle in den Bereichen Wind- und Sonnenenergie, kunstlicher Intelligenz, Elektromobilitat und Quantencomputer, um die beherrschende Macht unter den Volkswirtschaften des 21. Jahrhunderts zu werden. Auserdem errichtet China eigene Stutzpunkte quer durch den Indischen Ozean und nach Sudeuropa, um seine Kontrolle uber diese Handelsrouten wiederherzustellen. Wenn China Erfolghat, wird es die letzten zweihundert Jahre der Weltwirtschaftsgeschichte umkehren und seine fruhere Rolle als Hauptakteur in der globalen Wirtschaft wiederherstellen.

Research paper thumbnail of Will COVID-19 Bring Down Governments? Will It Bring Rebellions and Revolutions?

Oxford University Press eBooks, Apr 29, 2022

This chapter examines how the global COVID-19 pandemic has affected political stability and chang... more This chapter examines how the global COVID-19 pandemic has affected political stability and change in both democracies and autocracies. For the most part, the disease has stabilized regimes. In both autocracies that handled the disease well and democracies with populist rulers (even if they handled the disease poorly), leaders have held or increased their popularity in the wake of the pandemic. Only in a few autocracies that handled the pandemic poorly, such as Belarus, has it had any perceptible impact on the risk of political upheaval. It appears that, as with the global flu pandemic of 1918, the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 will be remembered for its health impact, not for any great political consequences.

Research paper thumbnail of 7. Communist revolutions: Russia, China, and Cuba

Oxford University Press eBooks, Jan 6, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of 9. Color revolutions: The Philippines, Eastern Europe and the USSR, and Ukraine

Oxford University Press eBooks, Jan 6, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of 11. The future of revolutions

Oxford University Press eBooks, Jan 6, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of Foreword: entrepreneurship andglobal growth

Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks, Dec 28, 2010

Research paper thumbnail of From Sociology and Economics to World History

DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals), Aug 1, 2009

World History has only recently emerged as a distinctive and vibrant field of study. Its origins ... more World History has only recently emerged as a distinctive and vibrant field of study. Its origins arose from a cross-fertilization of economics, history, and comparative sociology, and from particular conjunctions of people and places in the 1980s and 1990s. World historians now, thanks to unprecedented access to quantitative historical data and international networks of scholars, can develop increasingly precise, formal, and detailed accounts of changes and comparisons across historical periods. However, our goal is not to create new master narratives or theories that predict a grand historical trajectory for mankind; rather we seek to better understand the similarities and differences among societies, and the likely consequences of those similarities and differences.

Research paper thumbnail of Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World

Social Forces, Mar 1, 1992

What can the great crises of the past teach us about contemporary revolutions? Arguing from an ex... more What can the great crises of the past teach us about contemporary revolutions? Arguing from an exciting and original perspective, Goldstone suggests that great revolutions were the product of 'ecological crises' that occurred when inflexible political, economic, and social institutions were overwhelmed by the cumulative pressure of population growth on limited available resources. Moreover, he contends that the causes of the great revolutions of Europe--the English and French revolutions--were similar to those of the great rebellions of Asia, which shattered dynasties in Ottoman Turkey, China, and Japan. The author observes that revolutions and rebellions have more often produced a crushing state orthodoxy than liberal institutions, leading to the conclusion that perhaps it is vain to expect revolution to bring democracy and economic progress. Instead, contends Goldstone, the path to these goals must begin with respect for individual liberty rather than authoritarian movements of 'national liberation.' Arguing that the threat of revolution is still with us, Goldstone urges us to heed the lessons of the past. He sees in the United States a repetition of the behavior patterns that have led to internal decay and international decline in the past, a situation calling for new leadership and careful attention to the balance between our consumption and our resources. Meticulously researched, forcefully argued, and strikingly original, Revolutions and Rebellions in the Early Modern World is a tour de force by a brilliant young scholar. It is a book that will surely engender much discussion and debate.

Research paper thumbnail of Ideology, Cultural Frameworks, Revolutionary Struggles, and State Reconstruction

Research paper thumbnail of The Great and Little Divergence: Where Lies the True Onset of Modern Economic Growth?

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015

Recent efforts to identify the emergence of modern economic growth claim to find its origins in a... more Recent efforts to identify the emergence of modern economic growth claim to find its origins in a "Little Divergence" in northwest Europe beginning in the 1500s, in which Holland and Britain entered on an early phase of modern economic growth. This argument, based on new data on GDP/capita as well as older data on comparative real wages, would overturn the views of the California School world historians who argue for a relatively late economic separation of Britain from the rest of the world, occurring only in the second half of the 1700s. However, on closer examination the new GDP/capita do not support a "Little Divergence." Instead, they show a pattern typical of pre-modern "efflorescences" in Holland and Britain before 1800 that were clearly petering out, just as had occurred in earlier efflorescences in Song China and Renaissance Italy. According to the new data, at no point after 1600 and before 1780 did any nation in Europe experience both significant population growth and significant per capita income growth, as would be necessary for modern economic growth to have emerged. The new GDP/capita data make it clear that in fact China and Europeboth in their leading regions and overallwere on very similar economic trajectories until after 1800. These findings from the new macro-level GDP/capita data are further reinforced by new findings from micro-level data on health and nutrition, based on household income analysis, heights, and mortality. Together, the macro and micro-data make a compelling case that there was no "Little Divergence" launch pad for modern economic growth; modern economic growth arose only in a late "Great Divergence" after 1800.

Research paper thumbnail of The Puritan Moment: The Coming of Revolution in an English County

The American Historical Review, 1984

Research paper thumbnail of Nationalism: Five Roads to Modernity

The American Historical Review, 1993

Nationalism is a movement and a state of mind that brings together national identity, consciousne... more Nationalism is a movement and a state of mind that brings together national identity, consciousness, and collectivities. It accomplished the great transformation from the old order to modernity; it placed imagination above production, distribution, and exchange; and it ...

Research paper thumbnail of Why and where did modern economic growth begin?

Tijdschrift voor sociale en economische geschiedenis, Jun 15, 2015

Research paper thumbnail of A review essay on End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration by Peter Turchin (Penguin Random House 2023)

Research paper thumbnail of Imminent political conflicts arising from China's environmental crises

Research paper thumbnail of Political Demography & Global Ageing

Among different important issues, which are discussed in Political Demography the issue of global... more Among different important issues, which are discussed in Political Demography the issue of global ageing becomes more and more pressing every year. It is sufficient to take
into account the point that within two forthcoming decades a rapid global increase in the number of retirement-age persons will lead to its doubling within this fairly small historical
period. The concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has turned into a global issue. In forthcoming decades the population
ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future society characteristics and the direction of technological development.

Research paper thumbnail of Breaking down the State

A companion volume to Players and Arenas, this concentrates on interactions between protestors an... more A companion volume to Players and Arenas, this concentrates on interactions between protestors and the various players who comprise the state, from courts to police, legislators to bureaucrats. Again, some remarkable contributors are helping to develop a new language for describing political interaction.