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Papers by Hüseyin Alperen ÖZER

Research paper thumbnail of The impact of oil price shocks on inflation: Do asymmetries matter?

Using cointegration approach and Augmented Phillips Curve framework, this study examines the effe... more Using cointegration approach and Augmented Phillips Curve framework, this study examines the effects of changes in the global oil prices on the inflation rate for five CEE countries between 1994 and 2018. Our research indicates the existence of cointegration for Czechia, Poland and Slovakia. We find a positive relationship between changes of oil prices and the inflation rate in Poland in the long run. Additionally, it seems that the changes in oil prices impact the inflation rate in the long run for Czechia, Hungary and Poland. In a non-linear model framework cointegration is found in Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia. Our findings suggest that changes in oil prices significantly affect the inflation rate in Czechia, Hungary and Poland in the long-run and in all countries in the short-run. More importantly, we demonstrate that the short-and long-run asymmetries play a significant role in explaining the dynamics of the inflation rate.

Research paper thumbnail of Economic Growth Effects of Public and Private Investment Evidence from Dynamic Panel Estimation for Developed and Developing Countries

Prague Economic Papers, 2021

We examine the growth effects of public and private investment by using data for a large sample o... more We examine the growth effects of public and private investment by using data for a large sample of countries. For the full sample, our dynamic panel estimations indicate that both public and private investment have strong positive effects on growth. Our estimations for income levels also show that the impacts of both public and private investment are positive and statistically significant for developing countries. Interestingly, public and private investment promote growth in developing countries with effective and ineffective governments. It seems that countries can significantly benefit from investment regardless of their institutional quality levels. Furthermore, the effect of public investment generally appears to be larger than that of private investment. Given the robust relationship between investment and growth in both ineffective and effective developing countries, an important policy implication of our study is that both types of investment should be encouraged to foster economic growth.

Research paper thumbnail of How Do Oil Price Changes Affect the Current Account Balance? Evidence from Co-integration and Causality Tests

Ekonomický c̆asopis / Journal of Economics, 2020

This paper examines the relationship between the global oil prices and current account balances i... more This paper examines the relationship between the global oil prices and current account balances in Czechia, Hungary, and Poland by using ARDL and causality analysis. Our estimates indicate that there is a co-integrating relationship among the global oil price, current account balance, GDP growth rate, and real exchange rate in the sample countries. We find that a change in oil price has a significant effect on the current account balance in Poland and Czechia. Additionally, our results suggest that a change in the growth rate exerts a significant effect on the current account in these two countries. Moreover, there is a causal relationship running from the oil prices to current account balances in all sample countries in the short run. Furthermore, it seems that the growth rates Granger cause the current account in Czechia and Hungary in the short run. Finally, we also detect a long run and strong causality between variables in some cases.

Research paper thumbnail of Askeri Harcamalar ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik Analizi (The Relationship between Military Expenditure and Economic Growth: Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis)

Bu çalışma düşük ve yüksek gelirli ülkeler için askeri harcamalar ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki i... more Bu çalışma düşük ve yüksek gelirli ülkeler için askeri harcamalar ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Benzer çalışmalardan farklı olarak daha güvenilir ekonometrik sonuçlar elde etmek amacıyla yatay kesit bağımlılığı olgusu açık olarak dikkate alınmaktadır. Çalışmada ayrıca yeni panel eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik testleri de gerçekleştirilmektedir. Hem düşük hem de yüksek gelirli ülkelerde askeri harcamalar ve ekonomik büyüme arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. Ayrıca, düşük gelirli ülkeler için askeri harcamalar ve ekonomik büyüme arasında çift yönlü bir nedensel ilişki tespit edilirken yüksek gelirli ülkelerde askeri harcamalardan kişi başına düşen GSYH'ye tek yönlü nedenselliğin olduğu anlaşılmaktadır.

This study investigates the correlation between military spending and economic growth for low and high income countries. Thus, different from similar studies, our empirical approach explicitly considers cross-sectional dependency to attain more accurate econometric results. In addition, new panel cointegration and causality tests are performed in the study. Our empirical findings indicate that there exists a cointegration between military expenditure and economic growth both in low and high income countries. Furthermore, our findings lend evidence for the bi-directional causality between military spending and economic growth for low income countries. On the other hand, we determine that there is unidirectional causality running from military spending to GDP per capita for high income countries.

Books by Hüseyin Alperen ÖZER

Research paper thumbnail of The Effects of Energy, Non-Energy, and Precious Metal Prices on the Inflation in Turkey: An ARDL Approach

Current Debates on Social Sciences 3: Human Studies, 2019

Research paper thumbnail of CHAPTER 8: The Effects of Oil Prices on Selected Macroeconomic Variables in Turkey: Evidence from ARDL and NARDL Models

This paper examines the impacts of global oil prices on the current account, investment, growth r... more This paper examines the impacts of global oil prices on the current account, investment, growth rate, and inflation in Turkey by using data for 1998:1-2018:1 period and both ARDL and NARDL approaches to cointegration. Our ARDL results clearly show that oil prices have a significant influence on the current account, consistent with expectations. However, it seems that changes in oil prices do not exert a significant influence on the investment and growth rate. Moreover, we also find a robust effect of current account balance (growth rate) on the growth rate (current account balance). We should note that inflation has a negative influence on the growth rate. Additionally, there does not exist any cointegration among our variables when the inflation rate is used as the dependent variable. Using NARDL approach, we report that negative and positive changes in oil prices have a significant effect on the current account balance in only short run. Although it seems that a positive (negative) shock in oil prices ends up lowering the investment (growth) in the short run, our results do not lend any evidence for asymmetric effects of oil prices on investment and growth. Other results obtained from NARDL are very similar to that of our ARDL estimations.

Research paper thumbnail of The impact of oil price shocks on inflation: Do asymmetries matter?

Using cointegration approach and Augmented Phillips Curve framework, this study examines the effe... more Using cointegration approach and Augmented Phillips Curve framework, this study examines the effects of changes in the global oil prices on the inflation rate for five CEE countries between 1994 and 2018. Our research indicates the existence of cointegration for Czechia, Poland and Slovakia. We find a positive relationship between changes of oil prices and the inflation rate in Poland in the long run. Additionally, it seems that the changes in oil prices impact the inflation rate in the long run for Czechia, Hungary and Poland. In a non-linear model framework cointegration is found in Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia. Our findings suggest that changes in oil prices significantly affect the inflation rate in Czechia, Hungary and Poland in the long-run and in all countries in the short-run. More importantly, we demonstrate that the short-and long-run asymmetries play a significant role in explaining the dynamics of the inflation rate.

Research paper thumbnail of Economic Growth Effects of Public and Private Investment Evidence from Dynamic Panel Estimation for Developed and Developing Countries

Prague Economic Papers, 2021

We examine the growth effects of public and private investment by using data for a large sample o... more We examine the growth effects of public and private investment by using data for a large sample of countries. For the full sample, our dynamic panel estimations indicate that both public and private investment have strong positive effects on growth. Our estimations for income levels also show that the impacts of both public and private investment are positive and statistically significant for developing countries. Interestingly, public and private investment promote growth in developing countries with effective and ineffective governments. It seems that countries can significantly benefit from investment regardless of their institutional quality levels. Furthermore, the effect of public investment generally appears to be larger than that of private investment. Given the robust relationship between investment and growth in both ineffective and effective developing countries, an important policy implication of our study is that both types of investment should be encouraged to foster economic growth.

Research paper thumbnail of How Do Oil Price Changes Affect the Current Account Balance? Evidence from Co-integration and Causality Tests

Ekonomický c̆asopis / Journal of Economics, 2020

This paper examines the relationship between the global oil prices and current account balances i... more This paper examines the relationship between the global oil prices and current account balances in Czechia, Hungary, and Poland by using ARDL and causality analysis. Our estimates indicate that there is a co-integrating relationship among the global oil price, current account balance, GDP growth rate, and real exchange rate in the sample countries. We find that a change in oil price has a significant effect on the current account balance in Poland and Czechia. Additionally, our results suggest that a change in the growth rate exerts a significant effect on the current account in these two countries. Moreover, there is a causal relationship running from the oil prices to current account balances in all sample countries in the short run. Furthermore, it seems that the growth rates Granger cause the current account in Czechia and Hungary in the short run. Finally, we also detect a long run and strong causality between variables in some cases.

Research paper thumbnail of Askeri Harcamalar ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik Analizi (The Relationship between Military Expenditure and Economic Growth: Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis)

Bu çalışma düşük ve yüksek gelirli ülkeler için askeri harcamalar ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki i... more Bu çalışma düşük ve yüksek gelirli ülkeler için askeri harcamalar ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Benzer çalışmalardan farklı olarak daha güvenilir ekonometrik sonuçlar elde etmek amacıyla yatay kesit bağımlılığı olgusu açık olarak dikkate alınmaktadır. Çalışmada ayrıca yeni panel eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik testleri de gerçekleştirilmektedir. Hem düşük hem de yüksek gelirli ülkelerde askeri harcamalar ve ekonomik büyüme arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. Ayrıca, düşük gelirli ülkeler için askeri harcamalar ve ekonomik büyüme arasında çift yönlü bir nedensel ilişki tespit edilirken yüksek gelirli ülkelerde askeri harcamalardan kişi başına düşen GSYH'ye tek yönlü nedenselliğin olduğu anlaşılmaktadır.

This study investigates the correlation between military spending and economic growth for low and high income countries. Thus, different from similar studies, our empirical approach explicitly considers cross-sectional dependency to attain more accurate econometric results. In addition, new panel cointegration and causality tests are performed in the study. Our empirical findings indicate that there exists a cointegration between military expenditure and economic growth both in low and high income countries. Furthermore, our findings lend evidence for the bi-directional causality between military spending and economic growth for low income countries. On the other hand, we determine that there is unidirectional causality running from military spending to GDP per capita for high income countries.

Research paper thumbnail of The Effects of Energy, Non-Energy, and Precious Metal Prices on the Inflation in Turkey: An ARDL Approach

Current Debates on Social Sciences 3: Human Studies, 2019

Research paper thumbnail of CHAPTER 8: The Effects of Oil Prices on Selected Macroeconomic Variables in Turkey: Evidence from ARDL and NARDL Models

This paper examines the impacts of global oil prices on the current account, investment, growth r... more This paper examines the impacts of global oil prices on the current account, investment, growth rate, and inflation in Turkey by using data for 1998:1-2018:1 period and both ARDL and NARDL approaches to cointegration. Our ARDL results clearly show that oil prices have a significant influence on the current account, consistent with expectations. However, it seems that changes in oil prices do not exert a significant influence on the investment and growth rate. Moreover, we also find a robust effect of current account balance (growth rate) on the growth rate (current account balance). We should note that inflation has a negative influence on the growth rate. Additionally, there does not exist any cointegration among our variables when the inflation rate is used as the dependent variable. Using NARDL approach, we report that negative and positive changes in oil prices have a significant effect on the current account balance in only short run. Although it seems that a positive (negative) shock in oil prices ends up lowering the investment (growth) in the short run, our results do not lend any evidence for asymmetric effects of oil prices on investment and growth. Other results obtained from NARDL are very similar to that of our ARDL estimations.