Matthew Bunn | Harvard University (original) (raw)

Papers by Matthew Bunn

Research paper thumbnail of The economics of reprocessing vs. direct disposal of spent nuclear fuel

Nuclear Technology, Jan 1, 2005

This report assesses the economics of reprocessing versus direct disposal of spent nuclear fuel. ... more This report assesses the economics of reprocessing versus direct disposal of spent nuclear fuel. The breakeven uranium price at which reprocessing spent nuclear fuel from existing light-water reactors (LWRs) and recycling the resulting plutonium and uranium in LWRs would become economic is assessed, using central estimates of the costs of different elements of the nuclear fuel cycle (and other fuel cycle input parameters), for a wide range of range of potential reprocessing prices. Sensitivity analysis is performed, showing that the conclusions reached are robust across a wide range of input parameters. The contribution of direct disposal or reprocessing and recycling to electricity cost is also assessed. The choice of particular central estimates and ranges for the input parameters of the fuel cycle model is justified through a review of the relevant literature. The impact of different fuel cycle approaches on the volume needed for geologic repositories is briefly discussed, as are the issues surrounding the possibility of performing separations and transmutation on spent nuclear fuel to reduce the need for additional repositories. A similar analysis is then performed of the breakeven uranium price at which deploying fast-neutron breeder reactors would become competitive compared with a once-through fuel cycle in LWRs, for a range of possible differences in capital cost between LWRs and fast-neutron reactors. Sensitivity analysis is again provided, as are an analysis of the contribution to electricity cost, and a justification of the choices of central estimates and ranges for the input parameters. The equations used in the economic model are derived and explained in an appendix. Another appendix assesses the quantities of uranium likely to be recoverable worldwide in the future at a range of different possible future prices.

Research paper thumbnail of Controlling nuclear warheads and materials: A report card and action plan

Research paper thumbnail of Uncertainties of a preemptive nuclear attack

Sci. Am.;(United States), Jan 1, 1983

The Energy Citations Database (ECD) provides access to historical and current research (1948 to t... more The Energy Citations Database (ECD) provides access to historical and current research (1948 to the present) from the Department of Energy (DOE) and predecessor agencies.

Research paper thumbnail of The next wave: urgently needed new steps to control warheads and fissile material

... Browse Author | Format: Brief-Record. Books 1 to 1 of 1. Title: The Next Wave: Urgently Neede... more ... Browse Author | Format: Brief-Record. Books 1 to 1 of 1. Title: The Next Wave: Urgently Needed New Steps to Control Warheads and Fissile Material. Author(s): Matthew Bunn. Date: 2000. Publisher: Carnegie, Harvard U. Note: A Joint Pub. ...

Research paper thumbnail of Securing the bomb: An agenda for action

Research paper thumbnail of Interim Storage of Spent Nuclear Fuel: A Safe, Flexible, and Cost-Effective Near-Term Approach to Spent Fuel Management

Research paper thumbnail of Terrorist Nuclear Weapon Construction: How Difficult?

The Annals of the American Academy of …, Jan 1, 2006

The likelihood of a nuclear terrorist attack depends in part on the ability of terrorist groups t... more The likelihood of a nuclear terrorist attack depends in part on the ability of terrorist groups to acquire, con-struct, and detonate a nuclear device. This article attempts to determine the difficulty of such an endeavor by examining the underlying physical facts about nuclear fission, ...

Research paper thumbnail of Securing the Bomb 2005–The New Global Imperatives

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, …, Jan 1, 2005

Research paper thumbnail of Managing military uranium and plutonium in the United States and the former Soviet Union

Annual review of energy and the …, Jan 1, 1997

Effective approaches to the management of plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU)-the essenti... more Effective approaches to the management of plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU)-the essential ingredients of nuclear weapons-are fundamental to controlling nuclear proliferation and providing the basis for deep, transparent, and irreversible reductions in nuclear weapons stockpiles. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the ongoing dismantlement of tens of thousands of nuclear weapons are creating unprecedented stresses on the systems for managing these materials, as well as unprecedented opportunities for cooperation to improve these systems. In this article, we summarize the technical background to this situation, and the current and prospective security challenges posed by military stockpiles of these materials in the United States and Russia. We then review the programs in place to address these challenges, the progress of these programs to date, and the work remaining to be done, in five areas: (a) preventing theft and smuggling of nuclear warheads and fissile materials; (b) building a regime of monitored reductions in nuclear warhead and fissile material stockpiles; (c) ending further production of excess fissile materials; (d ) reducing stockpiles of excess fissile materials; and (e) avoiding economic collapse in the nuclear cities where substantial fractions of these materials and their guardians reside.

Research paper thumbnail of Reducing the threat of nuclear theft and sabotage

The appalling events of September 11, 2001 require a major international intiative to strengthen ... more The appalling events of September 11, 2001 require a major international intiative to strengthen security for such materials and facilities worldwide, and to put stringent security standards in place. This paper recommends a range of specific steps to upgrade security at individual facilities and strengthen national and international standards, with the goal of building a world in which all weapons-usable nuclear material is secure and accounted for, and all nuclear facilities secured from sabotage, with sufficient transparency that the international community can have confidence that this is the case. These steps will cost money, and accomplishing them will require sustained political leadership and reconsideration of a range of past policies and approaches. But the costs and risks of failing to act are far higher than the costs of acting now.

Research paper thumbnail of Securing the bomb 2006

Research paper thumbnail of A mathematical model of the risk of nuclear terrorism

The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political …, Jan 1, 2006

This article presents a mathematical model for measur-ing the global risk of nuclear theft and te... more This article presents a mathematical model for measur-ing the global risk of nuclear theft and terrorism. One plausible set of parameter values used in a numerical example suggests a 29 percent probability of a nuclear terrorist attack in the next decade. The expected loss over ...

Research paper thumbnail of Foundation for the future: the ABM Treaty and national security

An academic directory and search engine.

Research paper thumbnail of Securing the bomb 2008

Cambridge, Mass. and Washington DC: Project on …, Jan 1, 2008

Research paper thumbnail of Securing the Bomb, 2007

Research paper thumbnail of Nuclear Theft & Sabotage- Priorities for Reducing New Threats

IAEA Bulletin, Jan 1, 2001

Nuclear Theft & Sabotage-Priorities for Reducing New Threats. M Bunn, G Bunn IAEA Bulleti... more Nuclear Theft & Sabotage-Priorities for Reducing New Threats. M Bunn, G Bunn IAEA Bulletin 43:44, 20-29, 2001. The appalling attacks of 11 September 2001 in the United States make clear that the threat of large, well-organized ...

Research paper thumbnail of Strengthening nuclear security against post-September 11 threats of theft and sabotage

Journal of Nuclear Materials Management, Jan 1, 2002

The appalling events of September 11, 2001, require a major international initiative to strengthe... more The appalling events of September 11, 2001, require a major international initiative to strengthen security for nuclear materials and facilities worldwide, and to put stringent security standards in place. This paper recommends a range of specific steps to upgrade security at individual facilities and strengthen national and international standards, with the goal of building a world in which all weapons-usable nuclear material is secure and accounted for, and all nuclear facilities are secured from sabotage, with sufficient transparency that the international community can have confidence that this is the case.

Research paper thumbnail of The demand for black market fissile material

Nuclear Threat Initiative Research Library: Securing …, Jan 1, 2005

Research paper thumbnail of Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: A Progress Update

Cambridge, MA: Project on Managing the Atom, …, Jan 1, 2003

Research paper thumbnail of Arms control's enduring worth

Foreign Policy, Jan 1, 1990

With the walls of superpower confrontation collapsing and both East and West cutting back their m... more With the walls of superpower confrontation collapsing and both East and West cutting back their military forces without benefit of agree-ments, arms controllers in Washington are ask-ing: "Do we still have a job?" The answer, in a word, is yes. Even if the current negotiations are all ...

Research paper thumbnail of The economics of reprocessing vs. direct disposal of spent nuclear fuel

Nuclear Technology, Jan 1, 2005

This report assesses the economics of reprocessing versus direct disposal of spent nuclear fuel. ... more This report assesses the economics of reprocessing versus direct disposal of spent nuclear fuel. The breakeven uranium price at which reprocessing spent nuclear fuel from existing light-water reactors (LWRs) and recycling the resulting plutonium and uranium in LWRs would become economic is assessed, using central estimates of the costs of different elements of the nuclear fuel cycle (and other fuel cycle input parameters), for a wide range of range of potential reprocessing prices. Sensitivity analysis is performed, showing that the conclusions reached are robust across a wide range of input parameters. The contribution of direct disposal or reprocessing and recycling to electricity cost is also assessed. The choice of particular central estimates and ranges for the input parameters of the fuel cycle model is justified through a review of the relevant literature. The impact of different fuel cycle approaches on the volume needed for geologic repositories is briefly discussed, as are the issues surrounding the possibility of performing separations and transmutation on spent nuclear fuel to reduce the need for additional repositories. A similar analysis is then performed of the breakeven uranium price at which deploying fast-neutron breeder reactors would become competitive compared with a once-through fuel cycle in LWRs, for a range of possible differences in capital cost between LWRs and fast-neutron reactors. Sensitivity analysis is again provided, as are an analysis of the contribution to electricity cost, and a justification of the choices of central estimates and ranges for the input parameters. The equations used in the economic model are derived and explained in an appendix. Another appendix assesses the quantities of uranium likely to be recoverable worldwide in the future at a range of different possible future prices.

Research paper thumbnail of Controlling nuclear warheads and materials: A report card and action plan

Research paper thumbnail of Uncertainties of a preemptive nuclear attack

Sci. Am.;(United States), Jan 1, 1983

The Energy Citations Database (ECD) provides access to historical and current research (1948 to t... more The Energy Citations Database (ECD) provides access to historical and current research (1948 to the present) from the Department of Energy (DOE) and predecessor agencies.

Research paper thumbnail of The next wave: urgently needed new steps to control warheads and fissile material

... Browse Author | Format: Brief-Record. Books 1 to 1 of 1. Title: The Next Wave: Urgently Neede... more ... Browse Author | Format: Brief-Record. Books 1 to 1 of 1. Title: The Next Wave: Urgently Needed New Steps to Control Warheads and Fissile Material. Author(s): Matthew Bunn. Date: 2000. Publisher: Carnegie, Harvard U. Note: A Joint Pub. ...

Research paper thumbnail of Securing the bomb: An agenda for action

Research paper thumbnail of Interim Storage of Spent Nuclear Fuel: A Safe, Flexible, and Cost-Effective Near-Term Approach to Spent Fuel Management

Research paper thumbnail of Terrorist Nuclear Weapon Construction: How Difficult?

The Annals of the American Academy of …, Jan 1, 2006

The likelihood of a nuclear terrorist attack depends in part on the ability of terrorist groups t... more The likelihood of a nuclear terrorist attack depends in part on the ability of terrorist groups to acquire, con-struct, and detonate a nuclear device. This article attempts to determine the difficulty of such an endeavor by examining the underlying physical facts about nuclear fission, ...

Research paper thumbnail of Securing the Bomb 2005–The New Global Imperatives

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, …, Jan 1, 2005

Research paper thumbnail of Managing military uranium and plutonium in the United States and the former Soviet Union

Annual review of energy and the …, Jan 1, 1997

Effective approaches to the management of plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU)-the essenti... more Effective approaches to the management of plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU)-the essential ingredients of nuclear weapons-are fundamental to controlling nuclear proliferation and providing the basis for deep, transparent, and irreversible reductions in nuclear weapons stockpiles. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the ongoing dismantlement of tens of thousands of nuclear weapons are creating unprecedented stresses on the systems for managing these materials, as well as unprecedented opportunities for cooperation to improve these systems. In this article, we summarize the technical background to this situation, and the current and prospective security challenges posed by military stockpiles of these materials in the United States and Russia. We then review the programs in place to address these challenges, the progress of these programs to date, and the work remaining to be done, in five areas: (a) preventing theft and smuggling of nuclear warheads and fissile materials; (b) building a regime of monitored reductions in nuclear warhead and fissile material stockpiles; (c) ending further production of excess fissile materials; (d ) reducing stockpiles of excess fissile materials; and (e) avoiding economic collapse in the nuclear cities where substantial fractions of these materials and their guardians reside.

Research paper thumbnail of Reducing the threat of nuclear theft and sabotage

The appalling events of September 11, 2001 require a major international intiative to strengthen ... more The appalling events of September 11, 2001 require a major international intiative to strengthen security for such materials and facilities worldwide, and to put stringent security standards in place. This paper recommends a range of specific steps to upgrade security at individual facilities and strengthen national and international standards, with the goal of building a world in which all weapons-usable nuclear material is secure and accounted for, and all nuclear facilities secured from sabotage, with sufficient transparency that the international community can have confidence that this is the case. These steps will cost money, and accomplishing them will require sustained political leadership and reconsideration of a range of past policies and approaches. But the costs and risks of failing to act are far higher than the costs of acting now.

Research paper thumbnail of Securing the bomb 2006

Research paper thumbnail of A mathematical model of the risk of nuclear terrorism

The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political …, Jan 1, 2006

This article presents a mathematical model for measur-ing the global risk of nuclear theft and te... more This article presents a mathematical model for measur-ing the global risk of nuclear theft and terrorism. One plausible set of parameter values used in a numerical example suggests a 29 percent probability of a nuclear terrorist attack in the next decade. The expected loss over ...

Research paper thumbnail of Foundation for the future: the ABM Treaty and national security

An academic directory and search engine.

Research paper thumbnail of Securing the bomb 2008

Cambridge, Mass. and Washington DC: Project on …, Jan 1, 2008

Research paper thumbnail of Securing the Bomb, 2007

Research paper thumbnail of Nuclear Theft & Sabotage- Priorities for Reducing New Threats

IAEA Bulletin, Jan 1, 2001

Nuclear Theft & Sabotage-Priorities for Reducing New Threats. M Bunn, G Bunn IAEA Bulleti... more Nuclear Theft & Sabotage-Priorities for Reducing New Threats. M Bunn, G Bunn IAEA Bulletin 43:44, 20-29, 2001. The appalling attacks of 11 September 2001 in the United States make clear that the threat of large, well-organized ...

Research paper thumbnail of Strengthening nuclear security against post-September 11 threats of theft and sabotage

Journal of Nuclear Materials Management, Jan 1, 2002

The appalling events of September 11, 2001, require a major international initiative to strengthe... more The appalling events of September 11, 2001, require a major international initiative to strengthen security for nuclear materials and facilities worldwide, and to put stringent security standards in place. This paper recommends a range of specific steps to upgrade security at individual facilities and strengthen national and international standards, with the goal of building a world in which all weapons-usable nuclear material is secure and accounted for, and all nuclear facilities are secured from sabotage, with sufficient transparency that the international community can have confidence that this is the case.

Research paper thumbnail of The demand for black market fissile material

Nuclear Threat Initiative Research Library: Securing …, Jan 1, 2005

Research paper thumbnail of Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: A Progress Update

Cambridge, MA: Project on Managing the Atom, …, Jan 1, 2003

Research paper thumbnail of Arms control's enduring worth

Foreign Policy, Jan 1, 1990

With the walls of superpower confrontation collapsing and both East and West cutting back their m... more With the walls of superpower confrontation collapsing and both East and West cutting back their military forces without benefit of agree-ments, arms controllers in Washington are ask-ing: "Do we still have a job?" The answer, in a word, is yes. Even if the current negotiations are all ...