Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers (original) (raw)

Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:http://hdl.handle.net/10045/85611

Información del item - Informació de l'item - Item information

Título:	Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers
Autor/es:	\| Sanjurjo, Adam
Grupo/s de investigación o GITE:	Microeconomía Aplicada (GIMA)
Centro, Departamento o Servicio:	Universidad de Alicante. Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico
Palabras clave:	Law of small numbers \| Alternation bias **
Área/s de conocimiento:	Fundamentos del Análisis Económico
Fecha de publicación:	nov-2018
Editor:	The Econometric Society
Cita bibliográfica:	Econometrica. 2018, 86(6): 2019-2047. doi:10.3982/ECTA14943
Resumen:	We prove that a subtle but substantial bias exists in a common measure of the conditional dependence of present outcomes on streaks of past outcomes in sequential data. The magnitude of this streak selection bias generally decreases as the sequence gets longer, but increases in streak length, and remains substantial for a range of sequence lengths often used in empirical work. We observe that the canonical study in the influential hot hand fallacy literature, along with replications, are vulnerable to the bias. Upon correcting for the bias, we find that the longstanding conclusions of the canonical study are reversed.
Patrocinador/es:	Financial support from the Department of Decision Sciences at Bocconi University, and the Spanish Ministries of Education and Science and Economics and Competitiveness (ECO2015-65820-P) and Generalitat Valenciana (Research Projects Gruposo3/086 and PROMETEO/2013/037) is gratefully acknowledged.
URI:	http://hdl.handle.net/10045/85611
ISSN:	0012-9682 (Print) \| 1468-0262 (Online)
DOI:	10.3982/ECTA14943
Idioma:	eng
Tipo:	info:eu-repo/semantics/article
Derechos:	© 2018 The Econometric Society
Revisión científica:	si
Versión del editor:	https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA14943
Aparece en las colecciones:	INV - GIMA - Artículos de Revistas

Ver citas en Google Académico