Volker Handke | Helmholtz Zentrum Berlin (original) (raw)
Papers by Volker Handke
Springer eBooks, Dec 14, 2012
ABSTRACT
The photovoltaic markets have been growing tremendously in recent years-and growth is expected to... more The photovoltaic markets have been growing tremendously in recent years-and growth is expected to continue in the decades to come. However, there is a large uncertainty on the overall market size development-the variation between the most optimistic and most pessimistic scenarios is greater than a factor 10. Furthermore, most scenarios make statements only on the total market size. Specifications according to technology type are very rare. Generally, a long-term coexistence of the different PV cell technologies (crystalline silicon, thin-film, new emergent technologies) is assumed. Within the next 20 years the share of thin-film is believed to increase-in very optimistic estimates up to a market share of 45% in 2030. An issue that is not described (or only very superficially) in long-term PV market scenarios is the structure of the markets themselves. It is often pointed out that the different technologies do have properties which give them specific advantages and disadvantages in the various market segments. This is one of the reasons why a long-term coexistence of different PV cell types is commonly assumed. However, to our knowledge, no study exists to date that defines scenarios for market segme nts and stringently assesses the potentials of the various PV technologies in these scenarios. The aim of this study is to at least partly fill this gap. Based on a systematic literature review and targeted expert consultations, four archetypal PV market segments are identified and key performance indicators for PV products in these markets are described: n Large-scale (ground mounted) PV farms: Key performance indicator is low cost per W P. Thin-film technologies have great potentials in this market segment. n Roof top installations : Besides costs, high efficiency is a key requirement in this market, as space is a limiting factor. Consequently, technologies with higher efficiencies (e.g. crystalline silicon cells) have advantages to gain market shares in this sector. n Building integrated: Key demands are functionality, aesthetics and flexible design options. In contrast to the majority opinion that thin-film technologies are superior in this respect, it is actually heavily disputed among experts which technologies are the best fit to respond to the requirements of this market. Although thin-film products could deliver suitable solutions, this would hardly be possible within mass-production schemes, which in return would forfeit the advantages over wafer based silic on products. n Off-grid: Key indicators are reliability of performance as well as costs. The potential for the different PV technologies to enter this market are very similar. In a scenario exercise two narratives are given which describe two alternative worlds with distinct differences in the distribution of shares between these market segments resulting in very different PV products. n Diversity Rules describes a world in which the markets for PV products are very diverse and also differ regionally. Consequently there is a necessity for specific products for the diverse market segments. Most important are roof-top and building integrated applications. The demand on the functionality of the products is high. In addition to customised solutions for specific applications there is a high level of standardisation that allows the building of a plan with a mixture of products from different producers. n Cumulated global capacities of PV (GWp) up to 2050 Source Szenario Status
After completion of the LUFT 2030 project it was found that some measures concerning large combus... more After completion of the LUFT 2030 project it was found that some measures concerning large combustion plants and industrial facilities, which were originally indicated as supplemental measures (reduction case) meanwhile, are already implemented and so have to be a part of the reference case. Hence these measures have to be shifted from the reduction case (EWS + and ASP +) to the reference case (EWS+ and APS). Since these measures are for large combustion plants and industrial facilities, this concerns in detail a shift of measures to the sectoral scenarios SF-APS, SF-EWS, IN-APS and IN-EWS (reference case). Since all other sectors (agriculture, transport and mobile machine and solvents) stay unchanged and to ensure greater clarity the terms EWS-NEU and APS-NEU are used. Meanwhile the scenarios EWS+ and ASP+ remain unchanged.
Die vorliegende Studie geht der Frage nach, welche Impulse die künftige industrielle Nutzung von ... more Die vorliegende Studie geht der Frage nach, welche Impulse die künftige industrielle Nutzung von Zukunftstechnologien auf die Rohstoffnachfrage auslöst und auf welche Rohstoffe solche Innovationen besonders angewiesen sind. Die Analyse liefert profunde Rückschlüsse auf das Wechselspiel zwischen technischem Wandel und Rohstoffbedarf. Die seit Beginn dieses Jahrzehnts verstärkt zu beobachtenden Turbulenzen auf den Rohstoffmärkten haben ihre Ursache nicht, wie oft irrtümlich angenommen wird, in der Erschöpfung von Rohstoffvorkommen. Die Marktturbulenzen entstanden aus einem Ungleichgewicht von Angebot und Nachfrage. Die Fehleinschätzung der Märkte geht zum einen auf die stürmische Entwicklung der Weltwirtschaft und dem davon ausgelösten Boom der Rohstoffnachfrage zurück, der für viele Marktteilnehmer unerwartet kam. Zum anderen resultiert die Fehleinschätzung aus nicht rechtzeitig erkannten technischen Entwicklungen. Die Analyse der Treiber der Rohstoffmärkte erlaubt es, mögliche zukün...
The photovoltaic markets have been growing tremendously in recent years – and growth is expected ... more The photovoltaic markets have been growing tremendously in recent years – and growth is expected to continue in the decades to come. However, there is a large uncertainty on the overall market size development – the variation between the most optimistic and most pessimistic scenarios is greater than a factor 10. Furthermore, most scenarios make statements only on the total market size. Specifications according to technology type are very rare. Generally, a long-term co-existence of the different PV cell technologies (crystalline silicon, thin-film, new emergent technologies) is assumed. Within the next 20 years the share of thin-film is believed to increase – in very optimistic estimates up to a market share of 45% in 2030. An issue that is not described (or only very superficially) in long-term PV market scenarios is the structure of the markets themselves. It is often pointed out that the different technologies do have properties which give them specific advantages and disadvantag...
To prepare for upcoming reporting challenges under Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (MMR, EU/525/2... more To prepare for upcoming reporting challenges under Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (MMR, EU/525/2013) and Monitoring and Reporting Regulation (MRR, EC/601/2012) joint by the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD, EC/409/2009), The Federal Environment Agency (Umweltbundesamt [UBA]), The German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt), The Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment (IZT Berlin) and the engineering company Mueller BBM launched the DENK research project in 2011. The main subject of this project was the comparison between plant-specific data of the European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) and the data and methods used for preparation of source category-specific annual inventories, according to the EU monitoring mechanism and the national reporting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Springer eBooks, Dec 14, 2012
ABSTRACT
The photovoltaic markets have been growing tremendously in recent years-and growth is expected to... more The photovoltaic markets have been growing tremendously in recent years-and growth is expected to continue in the decades to come. However, there is a large uncertainty on the overall market size development-the variation between the most optimistic and most pessimistic scenarios is greater than a factor 10. Furthermore, most scenarios make statements only on the total market size. Specifications according to technology type are very rare. Generally, a long-term coexistence of the different PV cell technologies (crystalline silicon, thin-film, new emergent technologies) is assumed. Within the next 20 years the share of thin-film is believed to increase-in very optimistic estimates up to a market share of 45% in 2030. An issue that is not described (or only very superficially) in long-term PV market scenarios is the structure of the markets themselves. It is often pointed out that the different technologies do have properties which give them specific advantages and disadvantages in the various market segments. This is one of the reasons why a long-term coexistence of different PV cell types is commonly assumed. However, to our knowledge, no study exists to date that defines scenarios for market segme nts and stringently assesses the potentials of the various PV technologies in these scenarios. The aim of this study is to at least partly fill this gap. Based on a systematic literature review and targeted expert consultations, four archetypal PV market segments are identified and key performance indicators for PV products in these markets are described: n Large-scale (ground mounted) PV farms: Key performance indicator is low cost per W P. Thin-film technologies have great potentials in this market segment. n Roof top installations : Besides costs, high efficiency is a key requirement in this market, as space is a limiting factor. Consequently, technologies with higher efficiencies (e.g. crystalline silicon cells) have advantages to gain market shares in this sector. n Building integrated: Key demands are functionality, aesthetics and flexible design options. In contrast to the majority opinion that thin-film technologies are superior in this respect, it is actually heavily disputed among experts which technologies are the best fit to respond to the requirements of this market. Although thin-film products could deliver suitable solutions, this would hardly be possible within mass-production schemes, which in return would forfeit the advantages over wafer based silic on products. n Off-grid: Key indicators are reliability of performance as well as costs. The potential for the different PV technologies to enter this market are very similar. In a scenario exercise two narratives are given which describe two alternative worlds with distinct differences in the distribution of shares between these market segments resulting in very different PV products. n Diversity Rules describes a world in which the markets for PV products are very diverse and also differ regionally. Consequently there is a necessity for specific products for the diverse market segments. Most important are roof-top and building integrated applications. The demand on the functionality of the products is high. In addition to customised solutions for specific applications there is a high level of standardisation that allows the building of a plan with a mixture of products from different producers. n Cumulated global capacities of PV (GWp) up to 2050 Source Szenario Status
After completion of the LUFT 2030 project it was found that some measures concerning large combus... more After completion of the LUFT 2030 project it was found that some measures concerning large combustion plants and industrial facilities, which were originally indicated as supplemental measures (reduction case) meanwhile, are already implemented and so have to be a part of the reference case. Hence these measures have to be shifted from the reduction case (EWS + and ASP +) to the reference case (EWS+ and APS). Since these measures are for large combustion plants and industrial facilities, this concerns in detail a shift of measures to the sectoral scenarios SF-APS, SF-EWS, IN-APS and IN-EWS (reference case). Since all other sectors (agriculture, transport and mobile machine and solvents) stay unchanged and to ensure greater clarity the terms EWS-NEU and APS-NEU are used. Meanwhile the scenarios EWS+ and ASP+ remain unchanged.
Die vorliegende Studie geht der Frage nach, welche Impulse die künftige industrielle Nutzung von ... more Die vorliegende Studie geht der Frage nach, welche Impulse die künftige industrielle Nutzung von Zukunftstechnologien auf die Rohstoffnachfrage auslöst und auf welche Rohstoffe solche Innovationen besonders angewiesen sind. Die Analyse liefert profunde Rückschlüsse auf das Wechselspiel zwischen technischem Wandel und Rohstoffbedarf. Die seit Beginn dieses Jahrzehnts verstärkt zu beobachtenden Turbulenzen auf den Rohstoffmärkten haben ihre Ursache nicht, wie oft irrtümlich angenommen wird, in der Erschöpfung von Rohstoffvorkommen. Die Marktturbulenzen entstanden aus einem Ungleichgewicht von Angebot und Nachfrage. Die Fehleinschätzung der Märkte geht zum einen auf die stürmische Entwicklung der Weltwirtschaft und dem davon ausgelösten Boom der Rohstoffnachfrage zurück, der für viele Marktteilnehmer unerwartet kam. Zum anderen resultiert die Fehleinschätzung aus nicht rechtzeitig erkannten technischen Entwicklungen. Die Analyse der Treiber der Rohstoffmärkte erlaubt es, mögliche zukün...
The photovoltaic markets have been growing tremendously in recent years – and growth is expected ... more The photovoltaic markets have been growing tremendously in recent years – and growth is expected to continue in the decades to come. However, there is a large uncertainty on the overall market size development – the variation between the most optimistic and most pessimistic scenarios is greater than a factor 10. Furthermore, most scenarios make statements only on the total market size. Specifications according to technology type are very rare. Generally, a long-term co-existence of the different PV cell technologies (crystalline silicon, thin-film, new emergent technologies) is assumed. Within the next 20 years the share of thin-film is believed to increase – in very optimistic estimates up to a market share of 45% in 2030. An issue that is not described (or only very superficially) in long-term PV market scenarios is the structure of the markets themselves. It is often pointed out that the different technologies do have properties which give them specific advantages and disadvantag...
To prepare for upcoming reporting challenges under Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (MMR, EU/525/2... more To prepare for upcoming reporting challenges under Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (MMR, EU/525/2013) and Monitoring and Reporting Regulation (MRR, EC/601/2012) joint by the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD, EC/409/2009), The Federal Environment Agency (Umweltbundesamt [UBA]), The German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt), The Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment (IZT Berlin) and the engineering company Mueller BBM launched the DENK research project in 2011. The main subject of this project was the comparison between plant-specific data of the European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) and the data and methods used for preparation of source category-specific annual inventories, according to the EU monitoring mechanism and the national reporting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)