Carter Johnson | National Research University Higher School of Economics (original) (raw)
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Papers by Carter Johnson
International Journal on Minority and Group Rights, 2006
With the exception of Belarus and Russia, all Central-East, SouthEast , and East European countri... more With the exception of Belarus and Russia, all Central-East, SouthEast , and East European countries (CSEECs) have expressed their desire to join the European Union. Eight countries from the region joined the EU 1 in 2004, Romania and Bulgaria will almost certainly join in 2007, while another seven are currently under consideration. 2 As those seven future-accession CSEECs strive for membership, their governments increasingly look toward directives from the EU to adjust domestic policies; minority rights continue to play a key role in this process. The issue of protecting minorities has received a great deal of attention since 1989, and was one of a select few accession criteria made explicit by the EU in 1993. Since that period, many policy-makers and academics have begun taking a closer look at this politically sensitive area. Nevertheless, minority protection has been and remains shrouded in confusion and misunderstanding: Slovakia's education minister was baffled in the 1990s by international criticisms of an education policy that resembled that of Ireland and Spain, or Estonian citizens exasperated by international criticisms of their citizenship laws which they deem more liberal than that of Germany, to name just two examples. This article seeks to clarify what is meant by the phrase 'protection of minorities' and to explore the EU's commitment to this
Partition has been proposed as a way to (i) end ethnic civil wars and to (ii) build a lasting pea... more Partition has been proposed as a way to (i) end ethnic civil wars and to (ii) build a lasting peace after ethnic civil wars end. This dissertation builds on partition theory and the ethnic security dilemma in three ways, demonstrating empirical support for a novel theory of why violence recurs following the end of ethnic civil wars and how partition can be used to prevent such violence. The dissertation begins by introducing the puzzle of ethnic group concentration: the social sciences have demonstrated that concentrated ethnic groups produce both peace and violence. The first case study discredits the notion that ethnic group concentration produced during ethnic civil wars will produce an end to ethnic civil wars. I conducted detailed field research, producing a longitudinal study of ethnic migration and violence in the Georgia-Abkhaz civil war (1992-1993), which acts as a crucial case. I conclude that partitioning groups does not end ethnic war. This is the first accurate empirical test of the ethnic security dilemma. Next, the dissertation looks at partition's ability to build peace by concentrating ethnic groups in new homeland states, and I argue that postpartition violence is caused by weak states and the triadic political space endogenously created by partitions that do not separate ethnic groups completely. I call this the Third Generation Ethnic Security Dilemma, building on previous ethnic security dilemma research. I test this empirically by introducing an index measuring the degree to which partitions separate ethnic groups, and I compare all ethnic civil war terminations between 1945 and 2004, demonstrating that partitions which completely separate ethnic groups provide a better chance for peace. Third, I selected two cases (Moldova and Georgia) to examine the causal processes of postwar recurring violence. Georgia, which experienced post-partition violence, and Moldova, which did not, act as a structured case comparison. I conclude that mixed ethnic demography interacts with state-building to cause or avert renewed violence.
World Politics, 2011
The authors draw on a natural experiment to demonstrate that states can reconstruct conflictual i... more The authors draw on a natural experiment to demonstrate that states can reconstruct conflictual interethnic relationships into cooperative relationships in relatively short periods of time. The article examines differences in how the gentile population in each of two neighboring territories in Romania treated its Jewish population during the Holocaust. These territories had been part of tsarist Russia and subject to state-sponsored anti-Semitism until 1917. During the interwar period one territory became part of Romania, which continued anti-Semitic policies, and the other became part of the Soviet Union, which pursued an inclusive nationality policy, fighting against inherited anti-Semitism and working to integrate its Jews. Both territories were then reunited under Romanian administration during World War II, when Romania began to destroy its Jewish population. The authors demonstrate that, despite a uniform Romanian state presence during the Holocaust that encouraged gentiles to ...
World Politics, Jan 1, 2011
Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, 2002
This article is a comparative analysis of the Hungarian minority in Romania and the Turkish minor... more This article is a comparative analysis of the Hungarian minority in Romania and the Turkish minority in Bulgaria during the first ten years of their transition to democracy. Despite austere assimilationist campaigns during the communist-era and the unstable political region of the Balkans in its post-communist-era, both countries have avoided protracted, inter-ethnic violence. This article examines three internal factors that have played an instrumental role in facilitating democratic transitions in these plural societies: (i) state control of minorities; (ii) political institutions chosen for their nascent democracies; (iii) and the accommodative role of each minority's ethnopolitical party.
This paper examines partition as a solution to ethnic civil wars and modifies the ethnic security... more This paper examines partition as a solution to ethnic civil wars and modifies the ethnic security dilemma, suggesting that strong state institutions are more important than demographically separating ethnic groups to achieve an enduring peace. The paper starts with a puzzle: if ethnic separation is required for peace, how do some partitions that leave minorities behind maintain peace? The paper compares post-partition Georgia–Abkhazia, which experienced violence renewal within five years of the partition, with post-partition Moldova–Transnistria, which maintained peace. Both countries had ‘stay-behind’ ethnic minorities. The paper also disaggregates and compares the territories within post-partition Abkhazia, which contain ethnic Georgians: Lower Gali experienced violence while neighboring Upper Gali did not. The paper argues that state institutions create an incentive for ethnic minorities to collaborate with the state, regardless of minority preferences, and this helps maintain peace. However, preferences become important where institutions are weak and members of the ethnic minority have the opportunity to defect; this increases the likelihood of violence. The results build on the ethnic security dilemma by specifying micro-mechanisms and challenging the theory's reliance on intransigent ethnic identities in explaining the causes of post-partition violence.
The authors draw on a natural experiment to demonstrate that states can reconstruct conflictual i... more The authors draw on a natural experiment to demonstrate that states can reconstruct conflictual interethnic relationships into cooperative relationships in relatively short periods of time. The article examines differences in how the gentile population in each of two neighboring territories in Romania treated its Jewish population during the Holocaust. These territories had been part of tsarist Russia and subject to state-sponsored anti-Semitism until 1917. During the interwar period one territory became part of Romania, which continued anti-Semitic policies, and the other became part of the Soviet Union, which pursued an inclusive nationality policy, fighting against inherited anti-Semitism and working to integrate its Jews. Both territories were then reunited under Romanian administration during World War II, when Romania began to destroy its Jewish population. The authors demonstrate that, despite a uniform Romanian state presence during the Holocaust that encouraged gentiles to victimize Jews, the civilian population in the area that had been part of the Soviet Union was less likely to harm and more likely to aid Jews as compared with the region that had been part of Romania. Their evidence suggests that the state construction of interethnic relationships can become internalized by civilians and outlive the life of the state itself.
Since the early 1950s, civil wars have been longer lasting and more frequent than international w... more Since the early 1950s, civil wars have been longer lasting and more frequent than international wars, producing high levels of death and disability. 1 Ethnic wars have been especially common, comprising 55 percent (70) to 72 percent (91) of all civil wars between 1945 and 1999. 2 Moreover, cross-national evidence suggests that ethnic wars last longer than nonethnic wars. 3 These numbers are even more troubling given that, during the 1990s, more than 200 ethnic minorities and subordinate majorities throughout the world were contesting their political status. 4 In addition to the challenge of ending civil wars, one of the most vex-Partitioning to Peace
argues that partition is frequently the best available policy response to ethnic civil wars. By c... more argues that partition is frequently the best available policy response to ethnic civil wars. By creating a new measure of the degree of demographic unmixing achieved through partition, Johnson demonstrates that mere changes in sovereignty are insufªcient to produce peaceful outcomes. He contends, however, that "complete" separation of the two sides will help to bring peace. He concludes that partition is a useful tool for the international peacemaker, with the caveat that it "should be considered, however, only where populations are already largely separated at the time of intervention, or where interveners are prepared to separate groups using mass population transfers." 1 He interprets these ªndings as "strong evidence for advocates of partition (p. 168)."
This article is a comparative analysis of the Hungarian minority in Romania and the Turkish minor... more This article is a comparative analysis of the Hungarian minority in Romania and the Turkish minority in Bulgaria during the first ten years of their transition to democracy. Despite austere assimilationist campaigns during the communist-era and the unstable political region of the Balkans in its post-communist-era, both countries have avoided protracted, inter-ethnic violence. This article examines three internal factors that have played an instrumental role in facilitating democratic transitions in these plural societies: (i) state control of minorities; (ii) political institutions chosen for their nascent democracies; (iii) and the accommodative role of each minority's ethnopolitical party.
Journal by Carter Johnson
International Journal on Minority and Group Rights, 2006
With the exception of Belarus and Russia, all Central-East, SouthEast , and East European countri... more With the exception of Belarus and Russia, all Central-East, SouthEast , and East European countries (CSEECs) have expressed their desire to join the European Union. Eight countries from the region joined the EU 1 in 2004, Romania and Bulgaria will almost certainly join in 2007, while another seven are currently under consideration. 2 As those seven future-accession CSEECs strive for membership, their governments increasingly look toward directives from the EU to adjust domestic policies; minority rights continue to play a key role in this process. The issue of protecting minorities has received a great deal of attention since 1989, and was one of a select few accession criteria made explicit by the EU in 1993. Since that period, many policy-makers and academics have begun taking a closer look at this politically sensitive area. Nevertheless, minority protection has been and remains shrouded in confusion and misunderstanding: Slovakia's education minister was baffled in the 1990s by international criticisms of an education policy that resembled that of Ireland and Spain, or Estonian citizens exasperated by international criticisms of their citizenship laws which they deem more liberal than that of Germany, to name just two examples. This article seeks to clarify what is meant by the phrase 'protection of minorities' and to explore the EU's commitment to this
Partition has been proposed as a way to (i) end ethnic civil wars and to (ii) build a lasting pea... more Partition has been proposed as a way to (i) end ethnic civil wars and to (ii) build a lasting peace after ethnic civil wars end. This dissertation builds on partition theory and the ethnic security dilemma in three ways, demonstrating empirical support for a novel theory of why violence recurs following the end of ethnic civil wars and how partition can be used to prevent such violence. The dissertation begins by introducing the puzzle of ethnic group concentration: the social sciences have demonstrated that concentrated ethnic groups produce both peace and violence. The first case study discredits the notion that ethnic group concentration produced during ethnic civil wars will produce an end to ethnic civil wars. I conducted detailed field research, producing a longitudinal study of ethnic migration and violence in the Georgia-Abkhaz civil war (1992-1993), which acts as a crucial case. I conclude that partitioning groups does not end ethnic war. This is the first accurate empirical test of the ethnic security dilemma. Next, the dissertation looks at partition's ability to build peace by concentrating ethnic groups in new homeland states, and I argue that postpartition violence is caused by weak states and the triadic political space endogenously created by partitions that do not separate ethnic groups completely. I call this the Third Generation Ethnic Security Dilemma, building on previous ethnic security dilemma research. I test this empirically by introducing an index measuring the degree to which partitions separate ethnic groups, and I compare all ethnic civil war terminations between 1945 and 2004, demonstrating that partitions which completely separate ethnic groups provide a better chance for peace. Third, I selected two cases (Moldova and Georgia) to examine the causal processes of postwar recurring violence. Georgia, which experienced post-partition violence, and Moldova, which did not, act as a structured case comparison. I conclude that mixed ethnic demography interacts with state-building to cause or avert renewed violence.
World Politics, 2011
The authors draw on a natural experiment to demonstrate that states can reconstruct conflictual i... more The authors draw on a natural experiment to demonstrate that states can reconstruct conflictual interethnic relationships into cooperative relationships in relatively short periods of time. The article examines differences in how the gentile population in each of two neighboring territories in Romania treated its Jewish population during the Holocaust. These territories had been part of tsarist Russia and subject to state-sponsored anti-Semitism until 1917. During the interwar period one territory became part of Romania, which continued anti-Semitic policies, and the other became part of the Soviet Union, which pursued an inclusive nationality policy, fighting against inherited anti-Semitism and working to integrate its Jews. Both territories were then reunited under Romanian administration during World War II, when Romania began to destroy its Jewish population. The authors demonstrate that, despite a uniform Romanian state presence during the Holocaust that encouraged gentiles to ...
World Politics, Jan 1, 2011
Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, 2002
This article is a comparative analysis of the Hungarian minority in Romania and the Turkish minor... more This article is a comparative analysis of the Hungarian minority in Romania and the Turkish minority in Bulgaria during the first ten years of their transition to democracy. Despite austere assimilationist campaigns during the communist-era and the unstable political region of the Balkans in its post-communist-era, both countries have avoided protracted, inter-ethnic violence. This article examines three internal factors that have played an instrumental role in facilitating democratic transitions in these plural societies: (i) state control of minorities; (ii) political institutions chosen for their nascent democracies; (iii) and the accommodative role of each minority's ethnopolitical party.
This paper examines partition as a solution to ethnic civil wars and modifies the ethnic security... more This paper examines partition as a solution to ethnic civil wars and modifies the ethnic security dilemma, suggesting that strong state institutions are more important than demographically separating ethnic groups to achieve an enduring peace. The paper starts with a puzzle: if ethnic separation is required for peace, how do some partitions that leave minorities behind maintain peace? The paper compares post-partition Georgia–Abkhazia, which experienced violence renewal within five years of the partition, with post-partition Moldova–Transnistria, which maintained peace. Both countries had ‘stay-behind’ ethnic minorities. The paper also disaggregates and compares the territories within post-partition Abkhazia, which contain ethnic Georgians: Lower Gali experienced violence while neighboring Upper Gali did not. The paper argues that state institutions create an incentive for ethnic minorities to collaborate with the state, regardless of minority preferences, and this helps maintain peace. However, preferences become important where institutions are weak and members of the ethnic minority have the opportunity to defect; this increases the likelihood of violence. The results build on the ethnic security dilemma by specifying micro-mechanisms and challenging the theory's reliance on intransigent ethnic identities in explaining the causes of post-partition violence.
The authors draw on a natural experiment to demonstrate that states can reconstruct conflictual i... more The authors draw on a natural experiment to demonstrate that states can reconstruct conflictual interethnic relationships into cooperative relationships in relatively short periods of time. The article examines differences in how the gentile population in each of two neighboring territories in Romania treated its Jewish population during the Holocaust. These territories had been part of tsarist Russia and subject to state-sponsored anti-Semitism until 1917. During the interwar period one territory became part of Romania, which continued anti-Semitic policies, and the other became part of the Soviet Union, which pursued an inclusive nationality policy, fighting against inherited anti-Semitism and working to integrate its Jews. Both territories were then reunited under Romanian administration during World War II, when Romania began to destroy its Jewish population. The authors demonstrate that, despite a uniform Romanian state presence during the Holocaust that encouraged gentiles to victimize Jews, the civilian population in the area that had been part of the Soviet Union was less likely to harm and more likely to aid Jews as compared with the region that had been part of Romania. Their evidence suggests that the state construction of interethnic relationships can become internalized by civilians and outlive the life of the state itself.
Since the early 1950s, civil wars have been longer lasting and more frequent than international w... more Since the early 1950s, civil wars have been longer lasting and more frequent than international wars, producing high levels of death and disability. 1 Ethnic wars have been especially common, comprising 55 percent (70) to 72 percent (91) of all civil wars between 1945 and 1999. 2 Moreover, cross-national evidence suggests that ethnic wars last longer than nonethnic wars. 3 These numbers are even more troubling given that, during the 1990s, more than 200 ethnic minorities and subordinate majorities throughout the world were contesting their political status. 4 In addition to the challenge of ending civil wars, one of the most vex-Partitioning to Peace
argues that partition is frequently the best available policy response to ethnic civil wars. By c... more argues that partition is frequently the best available policy response to ethnic civil wars. By creating a new measure of the degree of demographic unmixing achieved through partition, Johnson demonstrates that mere changes in sovereignty are insufªcient to produce peaceful outcomes. He contends, however, that "complete" separation of the two sides will help to bring peace. He concludes that partition is a useful tool for the international peacemaker, with the caveat that it "should be considered, however, only where populations are already largely separated at the time of intervention, or where interveners are prepared to separate groups using mass population transfers." 1 He interprets these ªndings as "strong evidence for advocates of partition (p. 168)."
This article is a comparative analysis of the Hungarian minority in Romania and the Turkish minor... more This article is a comparative analysis of the Hungarian minority in Romania and the Turkish minority in Bulgaria during the first ten years of their transition to democracy. Despite austere assimilationist campaigns during the communist-era and the unstable political region of the Balkans in its post-communist-era, both countries have avoided protracted, inter-ethnic violence. This article examines three internal factors that have played an instrumental role in facilitating democratic transitions in these plural societies: (i) state control of minorities; (ii) political institutions chosen for their nascent democracies; (iii) and the accommodative role of each minority's ethnopolitical party.