Inga Ivanova | National Research University Higher School of Economics (original) (raw)

Papers by Inga Ivanova

Известия Дальневосточного федерального университета. Экономика и управление, 2011

arXiv (Cornell University), Jul 19, 2015

Following a suggestion of Warren Weaver, we extend the Shannon model of communication piecemeal i... more Following a suggestion of Warren Weaver, we extend the Shannon model of communication piecemeal into a complex systems model in which communication is differentiated both vertically and horizontally. This model enables us to bridge the divide between Niklas Luhmann's theory of the self-organization of meaning in communications and empirical research using information theory. First, we distinguish between communication relations and correlations among patterns of relations. The correlations span a vector space in which relations are positioned and can be provided with meaning. Second, positions provide reflexive perspectives. Whereas the different meanings are integrated locally, each instantiation opens global perspectives-"horizons of meaning"-along eigenvectors of the communication matrix. These next-order codifications of meaning can be expected to generate mutual redundancies when interacting in instantiations. Increases in redundancy indicate new options and can be measured as local reduction of prevailing uncertainty (in bits). The systemic generation of new options can be considered as a hallmark of the knowledge-based economy.

arXiv (Cornell University), Jan 29, 2013

The study of inter-human communication requires a more complex framework than Shannon's (1948) ma... more The study of inter-human communication requires a more complex framework than Shannon's (1948) mathematical theory of communication because "information" is defined in the latter case as meaningless uncertainty. Assuming that meaning cannot be communicated, we extend Shannon's theory by defining mutual redundancy as a positional counterpart of the relational communication of information. Mutual redundancy indicates the surplus of meanings that can be provided to the exchanges in reflexive communications. The information is redundant because based on "pure sets," that is, without subtraction of mutual information in the overlaps. We show that in the three-dimensional case (e.g., of a Triple Helix of university-industry-government relations), mutual redundancy is equal to mutual information (R xyz = T xyz); but when the dimensionality is even, the sign is different. We generalize to the measurement in N dimensions and proceed to the interpretation. Using Luhmann's social-systems theory and/or Giddens' structuration theory, mutual redundancy can be provided with an interpretation in the sociological case: different meaning-processing structures code and decode with other algorithms. A surplus of ("absent") options can then be generated that add to the redundancy. Luhmann's "functional (sub)systems" of expectations or Giddens' "rule-resource sets" are positioned mutually, but coupled operationally in events or "instantiated" in actions. Shannontype information is generated by the mediation, but the "structures" are (re-)positioned towards one another as sets of (potentially counterfactual) expectations. The structural differences among the coding and decoding algorithms provide a source of additional options in reflexive and anticipatory communications.

arXiv (Cornell University), Jul 19, 2015

Following a suggestion of Warren Weaver, we extend the Shannon model of communication piecemeal i... more Following a suggestion of Warren Weaver, we extend the Shannon model of communication piecemeal into a complex systems model in which communication is differentiated both vertically and horizontally. This model enables us to bridge the divide between Niklas Luhmann's theory of the self-organization of meaning in communications and empirical research using information theory. First, we distinguish between communication relations and correlations among patterns of relations. The correlations span a vector space in which relations are positioned and can be provided with meaning. Second, positions provide reflexive perspectives. Whereas the different meanings are integrated locally, each instantiation opens global perspectives-"horizons of meaning"-along eigenvectors of the communication matrix. These next-order codifications of meaning can be expected to generate mutual redundancies when interacting in instantiations. Increases in redundancy indicate new options and can be measured as local reduction of prevailing uncertainty (in bits). The systemic generation of new options can be considered as a hallmark of the knowledge-based economy.

Social Science Information, Feb 8, 2017

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Jul 1, 2015

Using time series of US patents per million inhabitants, knowledge-generating cycles can be disti... more Using time series of US patents per million inhabitants, knowledge-generating cycles can be distinguished. These cycles partly coincide with Kondratieff long waves. The changes in the slopes between them indicate discontinuities in the knowledge-generating paradigms. The knowledge-generating paradigms can be modeled in terms of interacting dimensions (for example, in university-industry-government relations) that set limits to the maximal efficiency of innovation systems. The maximum values of the parameters in the model are of the same order as the regression coefficients of the empirical waves. The mechanism of the increase in the dimensionality is specified as self-organization which leads to the breaking of existing relations into the more diversified structure of a fractal-like network. This breaking can be modeled in analogy to 2D and 3D (Koch) snowflakes. The boost of knowledge generation leads to newly emerging technologies that can be expected to be more diversified and show shorter life cycles than before. Time spans of the knowledge-generating cycles can also be analyzed in terms of Fibonacci numbers. This perspective allows for forecasting expected dates of future possible paradigm changes. In terms of policy implications, this suggests a shift in focus from the manufacturing technologies to developing new organizational technologies and formats of human interactions

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Dec 1, 2016

The Economic Complexity Index (ECI; Hidalgo & Hausmann, 2009) measures the complexity of national... more The Economic Complexity Index (ECI; Hidalgo & Hausmann, 2009) measures the complexity of national economies in terms of product groups. Analogously to ECI, the Patent Complexity Index (PatCI) can be developed on the basis of a matrix of nations versus patent classes. Using linear algebra, the three dimensions-countries, product groups, and patent classes-can be combined into a measure of "Triple Helix" complexity (THCI) including the trilateral interaction terms between knowledge production, wealth generation, and (national) control. THCI can be expected to capture the extent of systems integration between the global dynamics of markets (ECI) and technologies (PatCI) in each national system of innovation. We measure ECI, PatCI, and THCI during the period 2000-2014 for the 34 OECD member states, the BRICS countries, and a group of emerging and affiliated economies (Argentina, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Romania, and Singapore). The three complexity indicators are correlated between themselves; but the correlations with GDP per capita are virtually absent. Of the world's major economies, Japan scores highest on all three indicators, while China has been increasingly successful in combining economic and technological complexity. We could not reproduce the correlation between ECI and average income that has been central to the argument about the fruitfulness of the economic complexity approach.

Kybernetes, Nov 3, 2014

Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to present the case for an analysis of communication at the ... more Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to present the case for an analysis of communication at the supra-individual level as a means of rendering the understanding of learning and acting tractable. The paper introduces a method of analysis of redundancy to achieve this. Design/methodology/approach-The paper argues for a supra-individual approach to acting, learning, and understanding against focusing on an individual or quasi-transcendental "observer". The argument is outlined in four steps: first, articulation of the dynamics of the communication system; second, consideration of the redundancies of expectations within communication; third, the computation of anticipation which enables the authors to model meaning processing; and fourth the feedback of meaning processing on information processing can be measured as redundancy. Anticipated future states can reflexively drive reconstructions in meaning-processing systems. Research limitations/implications-The social system can be considered as a symbolic order of coordination mechanisms. Reflexive agency can access this order and partake in it. However, expectations and their structures do not "exist", but remain uncertain with the status of hypotheses. Historical embodiment in intentional action is structurally coupled to the order of expectations. The historical instantiations condition and enable the further development of the expectations as a retention mechanism. Originality/value-The modelling and measurement of meaning processing in terms of inversion of the arrow of time and the generation of redundancy provide extensions to the mathematical theory of communication.

arXiv (Cornell University), Apr 27, 2023

Communication of information in complex systems can be considered as major driver of systems evol... more Communication of information in complex systems can be considered as major driver of systems evolution. What matters is not the communicated information by itself but rather the meaning that is supplied to the information. However informational exchange in a system of heterogeneous agents, which code and decode information with different meaning processing structures, is more complex than simple input-output model. The structural differences of coding and decoding algorithms in a system of three or more groups of agents, entertaining different sets of communication codes, provide a source of additional options which has an impact on system's dynamics. The mechanisms of meaning and information processing can be evaluated analytically in a model framework. The results show that model predictions accurately fit empirically observed data in systems of different origins.

Springer Handbook of Science and Technology Indicators

The Triple Helix ( ) of university–industry–government relations can first be considered as an in... more The Triple Helix ( ) of university–industry–government relations can first be considered as an institutional network. However, the correlations in the patterns of relations provide another topology: that of a vector space. Meanings are provided from positions in this latter topology and from the perspective of hindsight. Meanings can be shared, and sharing generates redundancy. Increasing redundancy provides new options and reduces uncertainty; reducing uncertainty improves the innovative climate, and the generation of options (redundancy) is crucial for innovation. The knowledge base provides an engine of the economy by evolving in terms of generating new options. The trade-off between the evolutionary generation of redundancy and the historical variation providing uncertainty can be measured as negative and positive information, respectively. In a number of studies of national systems of innovation (e. g., Sweden, Germany, Spain, China), this TH synergy indicator has been used to analyze regions and sectors in which uncertainty was significantly reduced. The quality of innovation systems can thus be quantified at different geographical scales and in terms of sectors such as high- and medium-tech manufacturing or knowledge-intensive services ( ).

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019

In this paper information theoretical approach is applied to the description of financial markets... more In this paper information theoretical approach is applied to the description of financial markets A model which is expected to describe the markets dynamics is presented. It is shown the possibility to describe market trend and cycle dynamics from a unified viewpoint. The model predictions comparatively well suit Fibonacci ratios and numbers used for the analysis of market price and time projections. It proves possible to link time and price projections, thus allowing increase the accuracy of predicting well in advance the moment of trend termination. The model is tested against real data from the stock and financial markets.

SSRN Electronic Journal

Problem solving often requires crossing boundaries, such as those between disciplines. When polic... more Problem solving often requires crossing boundaries, such as those between disciplines. When policy‐makers call for “interdisciplinarity,” however, they often mean “synergy.” Synergy is generated when the whole offers more possibilities than the sum of its parts. An increase in the number of options above the sum of the options in subsets can be measured as redundancy; that is, the number of not‐yet‐realized options. The number of options available to an innovation system for realization can be as decisive for the system's survival as the historically already‐realized innovations. Unlike “interdisciplinarity,” “synergy” can also be generated in sectorial or geographical collaborations. The measurement of “synergy,” however, requires a methodology different from the measurement of “interdisciplinarity.” In this study, we discuss recent advances in the operationalization and measurement of “interdisciplinarity,” and propose a methodology for measuring “synergy” based on information theory. The sharing of meanings attributed to information from different perspectives can increase redundancy. Increasing redundancy reduces the relative uncertainty, for example, in niches. The operationalization of the two concepts—“interdisciplinarity” and “synergy”—as different and partly overlapping indicators allows for distinguishing between the effects and the effectiveness of science‐policy interventions in research priorities.

SSRN Electronic Journal

The innovation capacity of Norwegian innovation system, according Triple Helix model of innovatio... more The innovation capacity of Norwegian innovation system, according Triple Helix model of innovations approach, is analyzed in terms of mutual information among geographical, sectorial, and size distributions of firms as dimensions of probabilistic entropy. Negative entropies can be considered as a consequence of synergy among these dimensions. Three different techniques for evaluation of temporal synergy evolution are used: R/S analysis, DFT, and geographical synergy decomposition. The calculations are based on data for all Norwegian firms registered between 2002 and 2014. The results suggest that the synergy at the level of both the country and its seven regions show non-chaotic oscillatory behavior and resonate in a set of natural frequencies.

Foresight and STI Governance

T he innovation capacity of a system can be measured as the synergy in interactions among its par... more T he innovation capacity of a system can be measured as the synergy in interactions among its parts. Synergy can be considered as a consequence of negative entropies among three parts of the system. We analyze the development of synergy value in the Norwegian innovation system in terms of mutual information among geographical, sectorial, and size distributions of firms. We use three different techniques for the evaluation of the evolution of synergy over time: rescaled range analysis, DFT, and Кeywords: Triple Helix; knowledge base; innovations; synergy; cycles; regional innovation system; regions of Norway. geographical synergy decomposition. The data was provided by Statistics Norway for all Norwegian firms registered in the database between 2002 and 2014. The results suggest that the synergy at the level of both the country and its seven regions show non-chaotic oscillatory behavior which resonates in a set of natural frequencies. The finding of a set of frequencies implies a complex Triple-Helix structure, composed of many elementary triple helices, which can be theorized in terms of a fractal TH manifold.

Quality & Quantity

We propose the Modified Economic Complexity Index (MECI) as a possible refinement to two relevant... more We propose the Modified Economic Complexity Index (MECI) as a possible refinement to two relevant complexity measures: the Economic Complexity index (ECI) and the Fitness and Complexity index (FCI). Both ECI and FCI are used for the evaluation of competitive advantages and growth potentials of countries. ECI and FCI assume bipartite country-network data, whereas MECI provides an ecosystem-based design using technology as a third dimension. We test the three complexity measures with respect to Balassa’s Revealed Comparative Advantage index (RCA) and the newly introduced Revealed Effectiveness Advantage index (REA) using empirical data for 41 countries. Regression analysis shows that the predictive power of the three measures with respect to GDP per capita growth improves using the REA index instead of RCA. MECI improves the prediction when compared with ECI and FCI. However, the results for the three measures converge in terms of initial diversity scores and GDP per capita correlation in the case of using the REA index. MECI is based on an eco-system’s approach and can therefore be further developed into simulations.

Advances in Complex Systems

Economic complexity measures have been constructed on the basis of bipartite country-product netw... more Economic complexity measures have been constructed on the basis of bipartite country-product network data, but without paying attention to the technological dimension or manufacturing capabilities. In this study, we submit a Ternary Complexity Index (TCI), which explicitly incorporates technological knowledge as a third dimension, measured in terms of patents. Different from a complexity indicator based on the Triple Helix model (THCI) or a measure based on patents and countries (PatCI), TCI — products, countries, and patents — can be modeled in terms of Lotka–Volterra equations and thus the further evolution of an innovation eco-system can be specified. We test the model using empirical data. The results of a regression analysis show that TCI improves on Hidalgo and Hausmann’s [The building blocks of economic complexity, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106 (26) (2009) 10570–10575] and Tacchella et al.’s [A new metrics for countries fitness and products complexity, Sci. Rep. 2 (2012)] comple...

SSRN Electronic Journal

The SPRU Working Paper Series aims to accelerate the public availability of the research undertak... more The SPRU Working Paper Series aims to accelerate the public availability of the research undertaken by SPRU-associated people, and other research that is of considerable interest within SPRU, providing access to early copies of SPRU research.

Journal of the Knowledge Economy

We analyze the effects of relative increments of mutual information among the geographical, techn... more We analyze the effects of relative increments of mutual information among the geographical, technological, and organizational distributions of firms on the relative augmentation of regional summary turnover in terms of synergies. How do increases in synergy in international cooperation affect regional turnover? The methodological contribution of this study is that we translate the synergy (abstractly measured in bits of information) into more familiar economic terms, such as turnover for the special case of domestic-foreign collaborations. The analysis is based on Norwegian data, as Norway is a small country with an open and export-oriented economy. Data for Norway is publicly available in great detail.

Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 2014

ABSTRACT Since the appearance of the Triple Helix model of innovations, various extensions of the... more ABSTRACT Since the appearance of the Triple Helix model of innovations, various extensions of the model to higher dimensions, Quadruple, Quintuple, and N-tuple helices, had been proposed. Systemness of growing number of innovation system patterns can be expected to need classification. Also of no less importance is the way in which the new dimensions are added. This paper argues that while Triple Helix can be formed in a one unique way, the higher extensions can be composed in a number of possible ways, so that the classification can be made according to their topological or symmetry structure. The present paper alongside with presenting one more Triple Helix extension for the fourth dimension, which preserves the Triple Helix model rotational symmetry and comprises non-linear interaction in the joint working of the University, Industry, and Government institutional spheres with complement of an additional actor, Media, is a step to the classification of helix innovation system models on the symmetry base.

Известия Дальневосточного федерального университета. Экономика и управление, 2011

arXiv (Cornell University), Jul 19, 2015

Following a suggestion of Warren Weaver, we extend the Shannon model of communication piecemeal i... more Following a suggestion of Warren Weaver, we extend the Shannon model of communication piecemeal into a complex systems model in which communication is differentiated both vertically and horizontally. This model enables us to bridge the divide between Niklas Luhmann's theory of the self-organization of meaning in communications and empirical research using information theory. First, we distinguish between communication relations and correlations among patterns of relations. The correlations span a vector space in which relations are positioned and can be provided with meaning. Second, positions provide reflexive perspectives. Whereas the different meanings are integrated locally, each instantiation opens global perspectives-"horizons of meaning"-along eigenvectors of the communication matrix. These next-order codifications of meaning can be expected to generate mutual redundancies when interacting in instantiations. Increases in redundancy indicate new options and can be measured as local reduction of prevailing uncertainty (in bits). The systemic generation of new options can be considered as a hallmark of the knowledge-based economy.

arXiv (Cornell University), Jan 29, 2013

The study of inter-human communication requires a more complex framework than Shannon's (1948) ma... more The study of inter-human communication requires a more complex framework than Shannon's (1948) mathematical theory of communication because "information" is defined in the latter case as meaningless uncertainty. Assuming that meaning cannot be communicated, we extend Shannon's theory by defining mutual redundancy as a positional counterpart of the relational communication of information. Mutual redundancy indicates the surplus of meanings that can be provided to the exchanges in reflexive communications. The information is redundant because based on "pure sets," that is, without subtraction of mutual information in the overlaps. We show that in the three-dimensional case (e.g., of a Triple Helix of university-industry-government relations), mutual redundancy is equal to mutual information (R xyz = T xyz); but when the dimensionality is even, the sign is different. We generalize to the measurement in N dimensions and proceed to the interpretation. Using Luhmann's social-systems theory and/or Giddens' structuration theory, mutual redundancy can be provided with an interpretation in the sociological case: different meaning-processing structures code and decode with other algorithms. A surplus of ("absent") options can then be generated that add to the redundancy. Luhmann's "functional (sub)systems" of expectations or Giddens' "rule-resource sets" are positioned mutually, but coupled operationally in events or "instantiated" in actions. Shannontype information is generated by the mediation, but the "structures" are (re-)positioned towards one another as sets of (potentially counterfactual) expectations. The structural differences among the coding and decoding algorithms provide a source of additional options in reflexive and anticipatory communications.

arXiv (Cornell University), Jul 19, 2015

Following a suggestion of Warren Weaver, we extend the Shannon model of communication piecemeal i... more Following a suggestion of Warren Weaver, we extend the Shannon model of communication piecemeal into a complex systems model in which communication is differentiated both vertically and horizontally. This model enables us to bridge the divide between Niklas Luhmann's theory of the self-organization of meaning in communications and empirical research using information theory. First, we distinguish between communication relations and correlations among patterns of relations. The correlations span a vector space in which relations are positioned and can be provided with meaning. Second, positions provide reflexive perspectives. Whereas the different meanings are integrated locally, each instantiation opens global perspectives-"horizons of meaning"-along eigenvectors of the communication matrix. These next-order codifications of meaning can be expected to generate mutual redundancies when interacting in instantiations. Increases in redundancy indicate new options and can be measured as local reduction of prevailing uncertainty (in bits). The systemic generation of new options can be considered as a hallmark of the knowledge-based economy.

Social Science Information, Feb 8, 2017

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Jul 1, 2015

Using time series of US patents per million inhabitants, knowledge-generating cycles can be disti... more Using time series of US patents per million inhabitants, knowledge-generating cycles can be distinguished. These cycles partly coincide with Kondratieff long waves. The changes in the slopes between them indicate discontinuities in the knowledge-generating paradigms. The knowledge-generating paradigms can be modeled in terms of interacting dimensions (for example, in university-industry-government relations) that set limits to the maximal efficiency of innovation systems. The maximum values of the parameters in the model are of the same order as the regression coefficients of the empirical waves. The mechanism of the increase in the dimensionality is specified as self-organization which leads to the breaking of existing relations into the more diversified structure of a fractal-like network. This breaking can be modeled in analogy to 2D and 3D (Koch) snowflakes. The boost of knowledge generation leads to newly emerging technologies that can be expected to be more diversified and show shorter life cycles than before. Time spans of the knowledge-generating cycles can also be analyzed in terms of Fibonacci numbers. This perspective allows for forecasting expected dates of future possible paradigm changes. In terms of policy implications, this suggests a shift in focus from the manufacturing technologies to developing new organizational technologies and formats of human interactions

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Dec 1, 2016

The Economic Complexity Index (ECI; Hidalgo & Hausmann, 2009) measures the complexity of national... more The Economic Complexity Index (ECI; Hidalgo & Hausmann, 2009) measures the complexity of national economies in terms of product groups. Analogously to ECI, the Patent Complexity Index (PatCI) can be developed on the basis of a matrix of nations versus patent classes. Using linear algebra, the three dimensions-countries, product groups, and patent classes-can be combined into a measure of "Triple Helix" complexity (THCI) including the trilateral interaction terms between knowledge production, wealth generation, and (national) control. THCI can be expected to capture the extent of systems integration between the global dynamics of markets (ECI) and technologies (PatCI) in each national system of innovation. We measure ECI, PatCI, and THCI during the period 2000-2014 for the 34 OECD member states, the BRICS countries, and a group of emerging and affiliated economies (Argentina, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Romania, and Singapore). The three complexity indicators are correlated between themselves; but the correlations with GDP per capita are virtually absent. Of the world's major economies, Japan scores highest on all three indicators, while China has been increasingly successful in combining economic and technological complexity. We could not reproduce the correlation between ECI and average income that has been central to the argument about the fruitfulness of the economic complexity approach.

Kybernetes, Nov 3, 2014

Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to present the case for an analysis of communication at the ... more Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to present the case for an analysis of communication at the supra-individual level as a means of rendering the understanding of learning and acting tractable. The paper introduces a method of analysis of redundancy to achieve this. Design/methodology/approach-The paper argues for a supra-individual approach to acting, learning, and understanding against focusing on an individual or quasi-transcendental "observer". The argument is outlined in four steps: first, articulation of the dynamics of the communication system; second, consideration of the redundancies of expectations within communication; third, the computation of anticipation which enables the authors to model meaning processing; and fourth the feedback of meaning processing on information processing can be measured as redundancy. Anticipated future states can reflexively drive reconstructions in meaning-processing systems. Research limitations/implications-The social system can be considered as a symbolic order of coordination mechanisms. Reflexive agency can access this order and partake in it. However, expectations and their structures do not "exist", but remain uncertain with the status of hypotheses. Historical embodiment in intentional action is structurally coupled to the order of expectations. The historical instantiations condition and enable the further development of the expectations as a retention mechanism. Originality/value-The modelling and measurement of meaning processing in terms of inversion of the arrow of time and the generation of redundancy provide extensions to the mathematical theory of communication.

arXiv (Cornell University), Apr 27, 2023

Communication of information in complex systems can be considered as major driver of systems evol... more Communication of information in complex systems can be considered as major driver of systems evolution. What matters is not the communicated information by itself but rather the meaning that is supplied to the information. However informational exchange in a system of heterogeneous agents, which code and decode information with different meaning processing structures, is more complex than simple input-output model. The structural differences of coding and decoding algorithms in a system of three or more groups of agents, entertaining different sets of communication codes, provide a source of additional options which has an impact on system's dynamics. The mechanisms of meaning and information processing can be evaluated analytically in a model framework. The results show that model predictions accurately fit empirically observed data in systems of different origins.

Springer Handbook of Science and Technology Indicators

The Triple Helix ( ) of university–industry–government relations can first be considered as an in... more The Triple Helix ( ) of university–industry–government relations can first be considered as an institutional network. However, the correlations in the patterns of relations provide another topology: that of a vector space. Meanings are provided from positions in this latter topology and from the perspective of hindsight. Meanings can be shared, and sharing generates redundancy. Increasing redundancy provides new options and reduces uncertainty; reducing uncertainty improves the innovative climate, and the generation of options (redundancy) is crucial for innovation. The knowledge base provides an engine of the economy by evolving in terms of generating new options. The trade-off between the evolutionary generation of redundancy and the historical variation providing uncertainty can be measured as negative and positive information, respectively. In a number of studies of national systems of innovation (e. g., Sweden, Germany, Spain, China), this TH synergy indicator has been used to analyze regions and sectors in which uncertainty was significantly reduced. The quality of innovation systems can thus be quantified at different geographical scales and in terms of sectors such as high- and medium-tech manufacturing or knowledge-intensive services ( ).

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019

In this paper information theoretical approach is applied to the description of financial markets... more In this paper information theoretical approach is applied to the description of financial markets A model which is expected to describe the markets dynamics is presented. It is shown the possibility to describe market trend and cycle dynamics from a unified viewpoint. The model predictions comparatively well suit Fibonacci ratios and numbers used for the analysis of market price and time projections. It proves possible to link time and price projections, thus allowing increase the accuracy of predicting well in advance the moment of trend termination. The model is tested against real data from the stock and financial markets.

SSRN Electronic Journal

Problem solving often requires crossing boundaries, such as those between disciplines. When polic... more Problem solving often requires crossing boundaries, such as those between disciplines. When policy‐makers call for “interdisciplinarity,” however, they often mean “synergy.” Synergy is generated when the whole offers more possibilities than the sum of its parts. An increase in the number of options above the sum of the options in subsets can be measured as redundancy; that is, the number of not‐yet‐realized options. The number of options available to an innovation system for realization can be as decisive for the system's survival as the historically already‐realized innovations. Unlike “interdisciplinarity,” “synergy” can also be generated in sectorial or geographical collaborations. The measurement of “synergy,” however, requires a methodology different from the measurement of “interdisciplinarity.” In this study, we discuss recent advances in the operationalization and measurement of “interdisciplinarity,” and propose a methodology for measuring “synergy” based on information theory. The sharing of meanings attributed to information from different perspectives can increase redundancy. Increasing redundancy reduces the relative uncertainty, for example, in niches. The operationalization of the two concepts—“interdisciplinarity” and “synergy”—as different and partly overlapping indicators allows for distinguishing between the effects and the effectiveness of science‐policy interventions in research priorities.

SSRN Electronic Journal

The innovation capacity of Norwegian innovation system, according Triple Helix model of innovatio... more The innovation capacity of Norwegian innovation system, according Triple Helix model of innovations approach, is analyzed in terms of mutual information among geographical, sectorial, and size distributions of firms as dimensions of probabilistic entropy. Negative entropies can be considered as a consequence of synergy among these dimensions. Three different techniques for evaluation of temporal synergy evolution are used: R/S analysis, DFT, and geographical synergy decomposition. The calculations are based on data for all Norwegian firms registered between 2002 and 2014. The results suggest that the synergy at the level of both the country and its seven regions show non-chaotic oscillatory behavior and resonate in a set of natural frequencies.

Foresight and STI Governance

T he innovation capacity of a system can be measured as the synergy in interactions among its par... more T he innovation capacity of a system can be measured as the synergy in interactions among its parts. Synergy can be considered as a consequence of negative entropies among three parts of the system. We analyze the development of synergy value in the Norwegian innovation system in terms of mutual information among geographical, sectorial, and size distributions of firms. We use three different techniques for the evaluation of the evolution of synergy over time: rescaled range analysis, DFT, and Кeywords: Triple Helix; knowledge base; innovations; synergy; cycles; regional innovation system; regions of Norway. geographical synergy decomposition. The data was provided by Statistics Norway for all Norwegian firms registered in the database between 2002 and 2014. The results suggest that the synergy at the level of both the country and its seven regions show non-chaotic oscillatory behavior which resonates in a set of natural frequencies. The finding of a set of frequencies implies a complex Triple-Helix structure, composed of many elementary triple helices, which can be theorized in terms of a fractal TH manifold.

Quality & Quantity

We propose the Modified Economic Complexity Index (MECI) as a possible refinement to two relevant... more We propose the Modified Economic Complexity Index (MECI) as a possible refinement to two relevant complexity measures: the Economic Complexity index (ECI) and the Fitness and Complexity index (FCI). Both ECI and FCI are used for the evaluation of competitive advantages and growth potentials of countries. ECI and FCI assume bipartite country-network data, whereas MECI provides an ecosystem-based design using technology as a third dimension. We test the three complexity measures with respect to Balassa’s Revealed Comparative Advantage index (RCA) and the newly introduced Revealed Effectiveness Advantage index (REA) using empirical data for 41 countries. Regression analysis shows that the predictive power of the three measures with respect to GDP per capita growth improves using the REA index instead of RCA. MECI improves the prediction when compared with ECI and FCI. However, the results for the three measures converge in terms of initial diversity scores and GDP per capita correlation in the case of using the REA index. MECI is based on an eco-system’s approach and can therefore be further developed into simulations.

Advances in Complex Systems

Economic complexity measures have been constructed on the basis of bipartite country-product netw... more Economic complexity measures have been constructed on the basis of bipartite country-product network data, but without paying attention to the technological dimension or manufacturing capabilities. In this study, we submit a Ternary Complexity Index (TCI), which explicitly incorporates technological knowledge as a third dimension, measured in terms of patents. Different from a complexity indicator based on the Triple Helix model (THCI) or a measure based on patents and countries (PatCI), TCI — products, countries, and patents — can be modeled in terms of Lotka–Volterra equations and thus the further evolution of an innovation eco-system can be specified. We test the model using empirical data. The results of a regression analysis show that TCI improves on Hidalgo and Hausmann’s [The building blocks of economic complexity, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106 (26) (2009) 10570–10575] and Tacchella et al.’s [A new metrics for countries fitness and products complexity, Sci. Rep. 2 (2012)] comple...

SSRN Electronic Journal

The SPRU Working Paper Series aims to accelerate the public availability of the research undertak... more The SPRU Working Paper Series aims to accelerate the public availability of the research undertaken by SPRU-associated people, and other research that is of considerable interest within SPRU, providing access to early copies of SPRU research.

Journal of the Knowledge Economy

We analyze the effects of relative increments of mutual information among the geographical, techn... more We analyze the effects of relative increments of mutual information among the geographical, technological, and organizational distributions of firms on the relative augmentation of regional summary turnover in terms of synergies. How do increases in synergy in international cooperation affect regional turnover? The methodological contribution of this study is that we translate the synergy (abstractly measured in bits of information) into more familiar economic terms, such as turnover for the special case of domestic-foreign collaborations. The analysis is based on Norwegian data, as Norway is a small country with an open and export-oriented economy. Data for Norway is publicly available in great detail.

Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 2014

ABSTRACT Since the appearance of the Triple Helix model of innovations, various extensions of the... more ABSTRACT Since the appearance of the Triple Helix model of innovations, various extensions of the model to higher dimensions, Quadruple, Quintuple, and N-tuple helices, had been proposed. Systemness of growing number of innovation system patterns can be expected to need classification. Also of no less importance is the way in which the new dimensions are added. This paper argues that while Triple Helix can be formed in a one unique way, the higher extensions can be composed in a number of possible ways, so that the classification can be made according to their topological or symmetry structure. The present paper alongside with presenting one more Triple Helix extension for the fourth dimension, which preserves the Triple Helix model rotational symmetry and comprises non-linear interaction in the joint working of the University, Industry, and Government institutional spheres with complement of an additional actor, Media, is a step to the classification of helix innovation system models on the symmetry base.