Déborah Marciano | The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (original) (raw)

Papers by Déborah Marciano

Communications biology, Aug 23, 2023

Neuropsychologia, May 1, 2018

After choosing between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of the chose... more After choosing between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of the chosen option and the outcome of the unchosen option (the alternative). Behavioral research has shown that in such cases people engage in outcome comparison, and that the alternative outcome influences the way one evaluates his own received outcome. Moreover, this influence differs whether one was responsible or not for the choice made. In two studies, we looked for the electrophysiological correlates of outcome comparison. Subjects chose one of two boxes shown on the screen, each box contained a gain or a loss. The alternative outcome was always revealed first, followed by the received outcome. In half of the trials the software picked one box instead of subjects. We tested whether the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and the P3 elicited by the received reflect outcome comparison. As expected, we found that the FRN and P3 were more positive when the received outcome was a gain (vs. a loss). The FRN and P3 were also sensitive to the value of the alternative outcome, but contrary to our predictions, they were more positive when the alternative outcome was a gain (vs. a loss). As the FRN and P3 are sensitive to expectations, we hypothesized that our findings might result from subjects' biased expectations: subjects might have wrongly believed that a good (bad) alternative outcome signaled a bad (good) received outcome. This hypothesis, coined as the Alternative Omen Effect, was confirmed in parallel in a series of behavioral experiments: people see an illusory negative correlation between the uncorrelated outcomes of choice options (reported in Marciano-Romm et al., 2016). A challenge for future research will be to disentangle the effects of expectation from those of outcome comparison.

Judgment and Decision Making, Sep 1, 2019

When people learn of the outcome of an option they did not choose (the alternative outcome) befor... more When people learn of the outcome of an option they did not choose (the alternative outcome) before they know their own outcome, they see an illusory negative correlation between the two outcomes, the Alternative Omen Effect (ALOE). Why does this happen? Here, we tested several alternative explanations and conclude that the ALOE may derive from a pervasive belief that good luck is a limited resource. In Experiment 1, we show that the ALOE is due to people seeing a good alternative outcome as a bad sign regarding their outcome, relative to seeing a neutral alternative, but find no evidence for seeing a bad alternative outcome as a good sign. Experiment 2 confirms that the ALOE replicates across tasks, and that the ALOE cannot be explained by preconceptions regarding outcome distribution, including: 1) the Limited Good Hypothesis (zero-sum bias), according to which people see the world as a zero-sum game, and assume that resources there means fewer resources here, and/or 2) a more specific assumption that laboratory tasks are programmed as zero-sum games. To neutralize these potential beliefs, participants had to draw actual colored beads from two real, distinct bags. The results of Experiment 3 were consistent with a prediction of the Limited Luck Hypothesis: by eliminating the value of the outcomes we eliminated the ALOE. Taken together, our results show that either the limited good belief is so robust that it defies strong situational evidence, or that individuals perceive good luck itself as a limited resource. Such a limited-luck belief might have important consequences in decision making and negotiations.

PLOS Biology

Music is core to human experience, yet the precise neural dynamics underlying music perception re... more Music is core to human experience, yet the precise neural dynamics underlying music perception remain unknown. We analyzed a unique intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) dataset of 29 patients who listened to a Pink Floyd song and applied a stimulus reconstruction approach previously used in the speech domain. We successfully reconstructed a recognizable song from direct neural recordings and quantified the impact of different factors on decoding accuracy. Combining encoding and decoding analyses, we found a right-hemisphere dominance for music perception with a primary role of the superior temporal gyrus (STG), evidenced a new STG subregion tuned to musical rhythm, and defined an anterior–posterior STG organization exhibiting sustained and onset responses to musical elements. Our findings show the feasibility of applying predictive modeling on short datasets acquired in single patients, paving the way for adding musical elements to brain–computer interface (BCI) applications.

Cognition, 2016

In situations of choice between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of ... more In situations of choice between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of the chosen option and the outcome of the unchosen option ("the alternative"). Extensive research has shown that when both outcomes are eventually revealed, the alternative's outcome influences the way people evaluate their own outcome. In a series of experiments, we examined whether the outcome of the alternative plays an additional role in the decision-making process by creating expectations regarding the outcome of the chosen option. Specifically, we hypothesized that people see a good (bad) alternative's outcome as a bad (good) sign regarding their own outcome when the two outcomes are in fact uncorrelated, a phenomenon we call the "Alternative Omen Effect" (ALOE). Subjects had to repeatedly choose between two boxes, the outcomes of which were then sequentially revealed. In Experiments 1 and 2 the alternative's outcome was presented first, and we assessed the individual's prediction of their own outcome. In Experiment 3, subjects had to predict the alternative's outcome after seeing their own. We find that even though the two outcomes were in fact uncorrelated, people tended to see a good (bad) alternative outcome as a bad (good) sign regarding their own outcome. Importantly, this illusory negative correlation affected subsequent behavior and led to irrational choices. Furthermore, the order of presentation was critical: when the outcome of the chosen option was presented first, the effect disappeared, suggesting that this illusory negative correlation is influenced by self-relevance. We discuss the possible sources of this illusory correlation as well as its implications for research on counterfactual thinking.

Expectations are often dynamic: any sports fan knows that expectations are rapidly updated as gam... more Expectations are often dynamic: any sports fan knows that expectations are rapidly updated as games unfold. Yet expectations have traditionally been studied as static. Here, using slot machines as a case study, we provide parallel behavioral and electrophysiological evidence of sub-second moment-to-moment changes in expectations. In Study 1, we show that the dynamics of the EEG signal before the slot machine stopped differed depending on the nature of the outcome, including not only whether the participant won or lost, but also how close they came to winning. In line with our predictions, Near Win Before outcomes (the slot machine stops one item before a match) were similar to Wins, but different than Near Win After (the machine stops one item after a match) and Full Miss (the machine stops two or three items from a match). In Study 2, we designed a novel behavioral paradigm to measure moment-to-moment changes in expectations via dynamic betting. We found that different outcomes als...

Social decision-making requires the integration of reward valuation and social cognition systems,... more Social decision-making requires the integration of reward valuation and social cognition systems, both dependent on the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC). How these two OFC functions interact is largely unknown. We recorded intracranial activity from the OFC of ten patients making choices in the context of different types of inequity (disadvantageous vs. advantageous). We found that high-frequency activity (70-150 HZ) encoded the amount of self-reward, consistent with previous reports. We also observed novel evidence for encoding in human OFC of the social counterpart's reward as well as the type of inequity being experienced. Additionally, we find social context modulates reward encoding: depending on inequity type, reward encoding was switched on and off rapidly within electrodes, across trials. These results provide direct evidence for explicit encoding of self- and other- rewards in the human OFC, and for rapid and reversible changes in encoding schemes driven by socially relevant ...

• This brief presents the results from a field experiment that tested strategies for improving pa... more • This brief presents the results from a field experiment that tested strategies for improving parental participation in an oral health promotion workshop.

Computers in Human Behavior, 2021

Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms hold promise to reduce inequalities across race and socio... more Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms hold promise to reduce inequalities across race and socioeconomic status. One of the most important domains of racial and economic inequalities is medical outcomes; Black and low-income people are more likely to die from many diseases. Algorithms can help reduce these inequalities because they are less likely than human doctors to make biased decisions. Unfortunately, people are generally averse to algorithms making important moral decisions-including in medicine-undermining the adoption of AI in healthcare. Here we use the COVID-19 pandemic to examine whether the threat of racial and economic inequality increases the preference for algorithm decision-making. Four studies (N=2,819) conducted in the United States and Singapore show that emphasizing inequality in medical outcomes increases the preference for algorithm decision-making for triage decisions. These studies suggest that one way to increase the acceptance of AI in healthcare is to emphasize the threat of inequality and its negative outcomes associated with human decision-making.

When humans learn of the outcome of an option they did not choose (the alternative outcome), befo... more When humans learn of the outcome of an option they did not choose (the alternative outcome), before their own outcome is known, they form biased expectations about their future reward. Specifically, people see an illusory negative correlation between the two outcomes, which we coined the Alternative Omen Effect (ALOE). Why does this happen? Here, we tested several alternative explanations and conclude that the ALOE may derive from a pervasive belief that good luck is a limited resource. In Experiment 1, we show that the ALOE is due to people seeing a good alternative outcome as a bad sign regarding their outcome, but not vice versa. Experiment 2 confirms that the ALOE is a highly ingrained bias that replicates across tasks, and that the ALOE cannot be explained by preconceptions regarding outcome distribution, including 1) the Limited Good Hypothesis (zero-sum bias), according to which people see the world as a zero-sum game, and assume that resources there means fewer resources her...

Music is core to human experience across cultures. Multiple brain regions are engaged in music pe... more Music is core to human experience across cultures. Multiple brain regions are engaged in music perception, but the neural dynamics of music processing are not well defined. We applied predictive modeling tools to intracranial EEG data recorded from 29 patients who passively listened to a song (Another Brick in the Wall, Part 1, Pink Floyd), focusing on high-frequency activity (HFA; 70-150Hz) as a marker of local neural population activity. Encoding models characterized the spectrotemporal receptive fields (STRFs) of each electrode and decoding models investigated the population-level song representation. With the STRFs, we confirmed a central role of bilateral superior temporal gyri (STG) in music perception with additional involvement of bilateral sensory-motor cortices (SMC) and inferior frontal gyri (IFG). We also observed a right hemispheric preference for music perception. Using both an independent component analysis (ICA) and temporal modulations, we observed cortical regions ...

Neuron, 2021

Despite increased awareness of the lack of gender equity in academia and a growing number of init... more Despite increased awareness of the lack of gender equity in academia and a growing number of initiatives to address issues of diversity, change is slow, and inequalities remain. A major source of inequity is gender bias, which has a substantial negative impact on the careers, work-life balance, and mental health of underrepresented groups in science. Here, we argue that gender bias is not a single problem but manifests as a collection of distinct issues that impact researchers' lives. We disentangle these facets and propose concrete solutions that can be adopted by individuals, academic institutions, and society.

American Economic Review, 2017

Honesty is the best policy in the face of a strategy-proof mechanism--irrespective of others'... more Honesty is the best policy in the face of a strategy-proof mechanism--irrespective of others' behavior, the best course of action is to report one's preferences truthfully. We review evidence from different markets in different countries and find that a substantial percentage of participants do not report their true preferences to the strategy-proof Deferred Acceptance mechanism. Two recurring correlates of preference misrepresentation are lower cognitive ability and the expectation of stronger competition. We evaluate possible explanations, which we hope will inform practicing market designers.

Neuropsychologia, 2018

After choosing between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of the chose... more After choosing between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of the chosen option and the outcome of the unchosen option (the alternative). Behavioral research has shown that in such cases people engage in outcome comparison, and that the alternative outcome influences the way one evaluates his own received outcome. Moreover, this influence differs whether one was responsible or not for the choice made. In two studies, we looked for the electrophysiological correlates of outcome comparison. Subjects chose one of two boxes shown on the screen, each box contained a gain or a loss. The alternative outcome was always revealed first, followed by the received outcome. In half of the trials the software picked one box instead of subjects. We tested whether the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and the P3 elicited by the received reflect outcome comparison. As expected, we found that the FRN and P3 were more positive when the received outcome was a gain (vs. a loss)....

Cognition, 2016

In situations of choice between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of ... more In situations of choice between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of the chosen option and the outcome of the unchosen option ("the alternative"). Extensive research has shown that when both outcomes are eventually revealed, the alternative's outcome influences the way people evaluate their own outcome. In a series of experiments, we examined whether the outcome of the alternative plays an additional role in the decision-making process by creating expectations regarding the outcome of the chosen option. Specifically, we hypothesized that people see a good (bad) alternative's outcome as a bad (good) sign regarding their own outcome when the two outcomes are in fact uncorrelated, a phenomenon we call the "Alternative Omen Effect" (ALOE). Subjects had to repeatedly choose between two boxes, the outcomes of which were then sequentially revealed. In Experiments 1 and 2 the alternative's outcome was presented first, and we assessed the individual's prediction of their own outcome. In Experiment 3, subjects had to predict the alternative's outcome after seeing their own. We find that even though the two outcomes were in fact uncorrelated, people tended to see a good (bad) alternative outcome as a bad (good) sign regarding their own outcome. Importantly, this illusory negative correlation affected subsequent behavior and led to irrational choices. Furthermore, the order of presentation was critical: when the outcome of the chosen option was presented first, the effect disappeared, suggesting that this illusory negative correlation is influenced by self-relevance. We discuss the possible sources of this illusory correlation as well as its implications for research on counterfactual thinking.

Communications biology, Aug 23, 2023

Neuropsychologia, May 1, 2018

After choosing between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of the chose... more After choosing between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of the chosen option and the outcome of the unchosen option (the alternative). Behavioral research has shown that in such cases people engage in outcome comparison, and that the alternative outcome influences the way one evaluates his own received outcome. Moreover, this influence differs whether one was responsible or not for the choice made. In two studies, we looked for the electrophysiological correlates of outcome comparison. Subjects chose one of two boxes shown on the screen, each box contained a gain or a loss. The alternative outcome was always revealed first, followed by the received outcome. In half of the trials the software picked one box instead of subjects. We tested whether the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and the P3 elicited by the received reflect outcome comparison. As expected, we found that the FRN and P3 were more positive when the received outcome was a gain (vs. a loss). The FRN and P3 were also sensitive to the value of the alternative outcome, but contrary to our predictions, they were more positive when the alternative outcome was a gain (vs. a loss). As the FRN and P3 are sensitive to expectations, we hypothesized that our findings might result from subjects' biased expectations: subjects might have wrongly believed that a good (bad) alternative outcome signaled a bad (good) received outcome. This hypothesis, coined as the Alternative Omen Effect, was confirmed in parallel in a series of behavioral experiments: people see an illusory negative correlation between the uncorrelated outcomes of choice options (reported in Marciano-Romm et al., 2016). A challenge for future research will be to disentangle the effects of expectation from those of outcome comparison.

Judgment and Decision Making, Sep 1, 2019

When people learn of the outcome of an option they did not choose (the alternative outcome) befor... more When people learn of the outcome of an option they did not choose (the alternative outcome) before they know their own outcome, they see an illusory negative correlation between the two outcomes, the Alternative Omen Effect (ALOE). Why does this happen? Here, we tested several alternative explanations and conclude that the ALOE may derive from a pervasive belief that good luck is a limited resource. In Experiment 1, we show that the ALOE is due to people seeing a good alternative outcome as a bad sign regarding their outcome, relative to seeing a neutral alternative, but find no evidence for seeing a bad alternative outcome as a good sign. Experiment 2 confirms that the ALOE replicates across tasks, and that the ALOE cannot be explained by preconceptions regarding outcome distribution, including: 1) the Limited Good Hypothesis (zero-sum bias), according to which people see the world as a zero-sum game, and assume that resources there means fewer resources here, and/or 2) a more specific assumption that laboratory tasks are programmed as zero-sum games. To neutralize these potential beliefs, participants had to draw actual colored beads from two real, distinct bags. The results of Experiment 3 were consistent with a prediction of the Limited Luck Hypothesis: by eliminating the value of the outcomes we eliminated the ALOE. Taken together, our results show that either the limited good belief is so robust that it defies strong situational evidence, or that individuals perceive good luck itself as a limited resource. Such a limited-luck belief might have important consequences in decision making and negotiations.

PLOS Biology

Music is core to human experience, yet the precise neural dynamics underlying music perception re... more Music is core to human experience, yet the precise neural dynamics underlying music perception remain unknown. We analyzed a unique intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) dataset of 29 patients who listened to a Pink Floyd song and applied a stimulus reconstruction approach previously used in the speech domain. We successfully reconstructed a recognizable song from direct neural recordings and quantified the impact of different factors on decoding accuracy. Combining encoding and decoding analyses, we found a right-hemisphere dominance for music perception with a primary role of the superior temporal gyrus (STG), evidenced a new STG subregion tuned to musical rhythm, and defined an anterior–posterior STG organization exhibiting sustained and onset responses to musical elements. Our findings show the feasibility of applying predictive modeling on short datasets acquired in single patients, paving the way for adding musical elements to brain–computer interface (BCI) applications.

Cognition, 2016

In situations of choice between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of ... more In situations of choice between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of the chosen option and the outcome of the unchosen option ("the alternative"). Extensive research has shown that when both outcomes are eventually revealed, the alternative's outcome influences the way people evaluate their own outcome. In a series of experiments, we examined whether the outcome of the alternative plays an additional role in the decision-making process by creating expectations regarding the outcome of the chosen option. Specifically, we hypothesized that people see a good (bad) alternative's outcome as a bad (good) sign regarding their own outcome when the two outcomes are in fact uncorrelated, a phenomenon we call the "Alternative Omen Effect" (ALOE). Subjects had to repeatedly choose between two boxes, the outcomes of which were then sequentially revealed. In Experiments 1 and 2 the alternative's outcome was presented first, and we assessed the individual's prediction of their own outcome. In Experiment 3, subjects had to predict the alternative's outcome after seeing their own. We find that even though the two outcomes were in fact uncorrelated, people tended to see a good (bad) alternative outcome as a bad (good) sign regarding their own outcome. Importantly, this illusory negative correlation affected subsequent behavior and led to irrational choices. Furthermore, the order of presentation was critical: when the outcome of the chosen option was presented first, the effect disappeared, suggesting that this illusory negative correlation is influenced by self-relevance. We discuss the possible sources of this illusory correlation as well as its implications for research on counterfactual thinking.

Expectations are often dynamic: any sports fan knows that expectations are rapidly updated as gam... more Expectations are often dynamic: any sports fan knows that expectations are rapidly updated as games unfold. Yet expectations have traditionally been studied as static. Here, using slot machines as a case study, we provide parallel behavioral and electrophysiological evidence of sub-second moment-to-moment changes in expectations. In Study 1, we show that the dynamics of the EEG signal before the slot machine stopped differed depending on the nature of the outcome, including not only whether the participant won or lost, but also how close they came to winning. In line with our predictions, Near Win Before outcomes (the slot machine stops one item before a match) were similar to Wins, but different than Near Win After (the machine stops one item after a match) and Full Miss (the machine stops two or three items from a match). In Study 2, we designed a novel behavioral paradigm to measure moment-to-moment changes in expectations via dynamic betting. We found that different outcomes als...

Social decision-making requires the integration of reward valuation and social cognition systems,... more Social decision-making requires the integration of reward valuation and social cognition systems, both dependent on the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC). How these two OFC functions interact is largely unknown. We recorded intracranial activity from the OFC of ten patients making choices in the context of different types of inequity (disadvantageous vs. advantageous). We found that high-frequency activity (70-150 HZ) encoded the amount of self-reward, consistent with previous reports. We also observed novel evidence for encoding in human OFC of the social counterpart's reward as well as the type of inequity being experienced. Additionally, we find social context modulates reward encoding: depending on inequity type, reward encoding was switched on and off rapidly within electrodes, across trials. These results provide direct evidence for explicit encoding of self- and other- rewards in the human OFC, and for rapid and reversible changes in encoding schemes driven by socially relevant ...

• This brief presents the results from a field experiment that tested strategies for improving pa... more • This brief presents the results from a field experiment that tested strategies for improving parental participation in an oral health promotion workshop.

Computers in Human Behavior, 2021

Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms hold promise to reduce inequalities across race and socio... more Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms hold promise to reduce inequalities across race and socioeconomic status. One of the most important domains of racial and economic inequalities is medical outcomes; Black and low-income people are more likely to die from many diseases. Algorithms can help reduce these inequalities because they are less likely than human doctors to make biased decisions. Unfortunately, people are generally averse to algorithms making important moral decisions-including in medicine-undermining the adoption of AI in healthcare. Here we use the COVID-19 pandemic to examine whether the threat of racial and economic inequality increases the preference for algorithm decision-making. Four studies (N=2,819) conducted in the United States and Singapore show that emphasizing inequality in medical outcomes increases the preference for algorithm decision-making for triage decisions. These studies suggest that one way to increase the acceptance of AI in healthcare is to emphasize the threat of inequality and its negative outcomes associated with human decision-making.

When humans learn of the outcome of an option they did not choose (the alternative outcome), befo... more When humans learn of the outcome of an option they did not choose (the alternative outcome), before their own outcome is known, they form biased expectations about their future reward. Specifically, people see an illusory negative correlation between the two outcomes, which we coined the Alternative Omen Effect (ALOE). Why does this happen? Here, we tested several alternative explanations and conclude that the ALOE may derive from a pervasive belief that good luck is a limited resource. In Experiment 1, we show that the ALOE is due to people seeing a good alternative outcome as a bad sign regarding their outcome, but not vice versa. Experiment 2 confirms that the ALOE is a highly ingrained bias that replicates across tasks, and that the ALOE cannot be explained by preconceptions regarding outcome distribution, including 1) the Limited Good Hypothesis (zero-sum bias), according to which people see the world as a zero-sum game, and assume that resources there means fewer resources her...

Music is core to human experience across cultures. Multiple brain regions are engaged in music pe... more Music is core to human experience across cultures. Multiple brain regions are engaged in music perception, but the neural dynamics of music processing are not well defined. We applied predictive modeling tools to intracranial EEG data recorded from 29 patients who passively listened to a song (Another Brick in the Wall, Part 1, Pink Floyd), focusing on high-frequency activity (HFA; 70-150Hz) as a marker of local neural population activity. Encoding models characterized the spectrotemporal receptive fields (STRFs) of each electrode and decoding models investigated the population-level song representation. With the STRFs, we confirmed a central role of bilateral superior temporal gyri (STG) in music perception with additional involvement of bilateral sensory-motor cortices (SMC) and inferior frontal gyri (IFG). We also observed a right hemispheric preference for music perception. Using both an independent component analysis (ICA) and temporal modulations, we observed cortical regions ...

Neuron, 2021

Despite increased awareness of the lack of gender equity in academia and a growing number of init... more Despite increased awareness of the lack of gender equity in academia and a growing number of initiatives to address issues of diversity, change is slow, and inequalities remain. A major source of inequity is gender bias, which has a substantial negative impact on the careers, work-life balance, and mental health of underrepresented groups in science. Here, we argue that gender bias is not a single problem but manifests as a collection of distinct issues that impact researchers' lives. We disentangle these facets and propose concrete solutions that can be adopted by individuals, academic institutions, and society.

American Economic Review, 2017

Honesty is the best policy in the face of a strategy-proof mechanism--irrespective of others'... more Honesty is the best policy in the face of a strategy-proof mechanism--irrespective of others' behavior, the best course of action is to report one's preferences truthfully. We review evidence from different markets in different countries and find that a substantial percentage of participants do not report their true preferences to the strategy-proof Deferred Acceptance mechanism. Two recurring correlates of preference misrepresentation are lower cognitive ability and the expectation of stronger competition. We evaluate possible explanations, which we hope will inform practicing market designers.

Neuropsychologia, 2018

After choosing between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of the chose... more After choosing between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of the chosen option and the outcome of the unchosen option (the alternative). Behavioral research has shown that in such cases people engage in outcome comparison, and that the alternative outcome influences the way one evaluates his own received outcome. Moreover, this influence differs whether one was responsible or not for the choice made. In two studies, we looked for the electrophysiological correlates of outcome comparison. Subjects chose one of two boxes shown on the screen, each box contained a gain or a loss. The alternative outcome was always revealed first, followed by the received outcome. In half of the trials the software picked one box instead of subjects. We tested whether the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and the P3 elicited by the received reflect outcome comparison. As expected, we found that the FRN and P3 were more positive when the received outcome was a gain (vs. a loss)....

Cognition, 2016

In situations of choice between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of ... more In situations of choice between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of the chosen option and the outcome of the unchosen option ("the alternative"). Extensive research has shown that when both outcomes are eventually revealed, the alternative's outcome influences the way people evaluate their own outcome. In a series of experiments, we examined whether the outcome of the alternative plays an additional role in the decision-making process by creating expectations regarding the outcome of the chosen option. Specifically, we hypothesized that people see a good (bad) alternative's outcome as a bad (good) sign regarding their own outcome when the two outcomes are in fact uncorrelated, a phenomenon we call the "Alternative Omen Effect" (ALOE). Subjects had to repeatedly choose between two boxes, the outcomes of which were then sequentially revealed. In Experiments 1 and 2 the alternative's outcome was presented first, and we assessed the individual's prediction of their own outcome. In Experiment 3, subjects had to predict the alternative's outcome after seeing their own. We find that even though the two outcomes were in fact uncorrelated, people tended to see a good (bad) alternative outcome as a bad (good) sign regarding their own outcome. Importantly, this illusory negative correlation affected subsequent behavior and led to irrational choices. Furthermore, the order of presentation was critical: when the outcome of the chosen option was presented first, the effect disappeared, suggesting that this illusory negative correlation is influenced by self-relevance. We discuss the possible sources of this illusory correlation as well as its implications for research on counterfactual thinking.