Peter Marcotullio | Hunter College (original) (raw)

Papers by Peter Marcotullio

Disaster and Risk Research: GADRI Book Series

Cities in South Asia commonly experience high heat events. These so-called heat waves, however, a... more Cities in South Asia commonly experience high heat events. These so-called heat waves, however, are increasing in intensity and are projected to increase in frequency, as the climate continues to change. Given the large and growing urban population in the region, urban planners need information on the state and trends of urban heat, the risk of this heat to human wellbeing, and ways to modify heat within the city. This chapter attempts to broadly address these issues by providing an overview of the state and trends of urban heat, urban heat-island formation, urbanization, climate change-related future heat, human risk to heat waves, and the potential for ecosystem mitigation in South Asia. The chapter complements other chapters in this volume by providing the background to the importance of future heat shock events and the potential for blue-green infrastructure to address these hazards.

Towards Sustainable Cities

For the last decade, urbanists have searched for ways to move cities towards sustainability. The ... more For the last decade, urbanists have searched for ways to move cities towards sustainability. The goals seem elusive, and the task of accommodating economic, social, and environmental issues complex. Nonetheless, in daily practice, planners in cities around the world are working to make cities more sustainable. The key word here is' more,'for we might debate whether cities can ever be entirely sustainable. We can agree that sustainability implies a dynamic of progressive change that improves long-term human and ecosystem ...

The United Nations provide detailed projections for the size of the urban and rural populations f... more The United Nations provide detailed projections for the size of the urban and rural populations for every country in the world up to the end of the century. This paper presents results from the development of a geosimulation that predicts the future geographic distribution of the global population on a grid at 1km resolution. Starting from the status quo, the simulations project the development of population numbers for every grid cell, as well as its future land cover class between the classes urban, suburban, and rural. Our initial results indicate that we will see massive population growth in areas close to the equator, which will cause challenges for the provision of drinking water, food, and energy in the face of climate change. The simulations also show that the size of the urban extents will likely more than triple to accommodate both the additional population and the continuing trend of moving from rural to urban areas.

Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy

Towards sustainable cities Definition of a city and data issues The majority of countries use a s... more Towards sustainable cities Definition of a city and data issues The majority of countries use a single characteristic or a combination of administrative, population size or density, economic and urban characteristics (e.g., paved streets, water-supply systems, sewerage systems and electric lighting) to define a city. The lower limit above which a settlement can be considered urban varies greatly, between 200 and 50,000 inhabitants, which can give rise to error when comparing urban populations (and urban areas) in different countries. For example, if India's national authorities would classify populations of 5,000 or more as urban, the country would be considered predominantly urban and not rural. In Angola, Argentina and Ethiopia, all settlements with 2,000 people or more are classified as urban. In Benin, only areas with 10,000 people or more are considered urban. In Botswana, an agglomeration of 5,000 people or more where 75 per cent of the economic activity is non-agricultural can be considered urban (Cohen, 2006). Certain countries define the urban population as comprising people who live within certain administrative centres or municipios (El Salvador) or under the jurisdiction of municipality councils (Iraq). Others define cities as places with a municipality, municipal corporation, town committee or cantonment board (Bangladesh and Pakistan). The population of any urban centre is influenced by how its boundaries are set-for instance, are they determined by the built-up area or are peri-urban areas which have little or no urban development included within them? The size of a city can be made significantly larger if fringe populations are included in official statistics; many cities have boundaries set to include the city and large areas around the city which may include small towns and large rural populations. Most large cities have more than one boundary-boundaries for the central city, for instance, for an entire metropolitan area, or for a wider planning region which often includes many rural settlements. In general, countries' urban populations are defined as the residents whose main source of income is not from agriculture or forestry (Satterthwaite, 2010). Inadequate attention paid to data limitations has led to misconceptions regarding urban trends which can ultimately distort urban policies. Urban population projections often do not include high-and low-variant estimations, which are typical of world population projections published by the United Nations (Satterthwaite, 2007; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2012). Moreover, the traditional urban/rural dichotomy has become increasingly inadequate for distinguishing between urban and rural settlements. Increased trade, labour mobility and innovation in communications have spread urban functions and influence over wide geographical areas, including rural ones. In parts of Asia and the Pacific, for example, intense economic activity in the intersection between urban and rural areas has blurred differences (Cohen, 2006). Yet, in the case of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, censuses and surveys that consider the urban/rural dichotomy are still valid since they persistently indicate social inequalities subsisting between rural and urban areas (United Nations, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2012). Still, some of the most profound social inequalities are seen within cities or within nations' urban populations. To improve the consistency and comparability of data on urban populations across countries and over time, the United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012) uses two auxiliary concepts: (a) urban agglomeration, which refers to "population contained within the contours of contiguous territory" inhabited by, e.g., 750,000 inhabitants or more and (b) metropolitan region, which includes both the contiguous territory and "surrounding areas of lower settlement density" which are under the direct influence of the city through frequent transport, roads, commuting and so forth (p. 7). In addition, there is a potential for research on urban databases and data-collection mechanisms to support local policy, planning and investment decisions. In general, caution is recommended regarding the interpretation and comparison of urban population statistics between nations, owing to different official criteria for defining urban areas, and setting city boundaries, and, in some cases, to the lack of census data.

Urbanization, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services: Challenges and Opportunities, 2013

The objective of this chapter is to examine selected connections between ongoing global urbanizat... more The objective of this chapter is to examine selected connections between ongoing global urbanization, climate change, and urban biodiversity. The direct and indirect interactions between ongoing urbanization processes and climate change have profound impacts on urban biodiversity and its capacity to provide ecosystem services for urban populations. The chapter reviews key aspects of how urbanization affects local and global climate conditions and how these conditions in turn impact urban areas. Special attention is focused on the vulnerability of urban biodiversity to these changes. Urban contexts in developing and developed countries are examined. 25.1 Introduction Urbanization is a key driver of global environmental change and linked to urban climate and climate change (While and Whitehead 2013 ; Rosenzweig et al. 2011a ; Huang et al. 2008 ; IEA 2008). Urbanization impacts the atmosphere's regulatory ecosystem services that augment climate variability at the local, regional and global scales. The accompanying climate consequences can lead to increased risk exposure for urban citizens (McGranahan et al. 2007) and vulnerabilities for urban Chapter 25

Desenvolvimento e Meio Ambiente, 2012

This article examines the historical trends of Tokyo’s marine seafood consumption and tensions ov... more This article examines the historical trends of Tokyo’s marine seafood consumption and tensions over how to promote urban sustainable consumption. Despite overwhelming evidence that global fish stocks are depleting, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government has not advanced an agenda to directly support sustainable seafood consumption. In this vacuum national government policies, increasing wealth, changes in preferences and private initiatives have promoted the consumption of ever larger amounts of seafood. Notwithstanding these forces, however, consumption patterns since the 1970s have changed in unpredictable ways. The per capita proportion consumed of prized, high trophic level and high status seafood, such as carnivorous fish, is declining while the consumption of other types of seafood from lower trophic levels is increasing. Moreover, seafood prices seem to play little role in these trends. Despite their great wealth and the forces that are promoting increased consumption, those livin...

Global Environmental Change, 2012

By bringing together and comparing strategies and experiences from three distinct global regions:... more By bringing together and comparing strategies and experiences from three distinct global regions: North America, Europe and East Asia, this book offers unique insights and new perspectives on how to develop urban sustainability. While questioning what strategies can promote sustainable cities in a global context, the book also illustrates that formulae generated out of American and European experience cannot be universally applied, but that some of the analytical approaches and experience of the other developed countries can ...

AMBIO, 2013

This paper provides an account of urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 40 countries in Europ... more This paper provides an account of urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 40 countries in Europe and examines covariates of emissions levels. We use a ''top-down'' analysis of emissions as spatially reported in the Emission Dataset for Global Atmospheric Research supplemented by Carbon Monitoring for Action from 1153 European cities larger than 50 000 population in 2000 (comprising [81 % of the total European urban population). Urban areas are defined spatially and demographically by the Global Rural Urban Mapping Project. We compare these results with ''bottom-up'' carbon accounting method results for cities in the region. Our results suggest that direct (Scopes 1 and 2) GHG emissions from urban areas range between 44 and 54 % of total anthropogenic emissions for the region. While individual urban GHG footprints vary from bottom-up studies, both the mean differences and the regional energy-related GHG emission share support previous findings. Correlation analysis indicates that the urban GHG emissions in Europe are mainly influenced by population size, density, and income and not by biophysical conditions. We argue that these data and methods of analysis are best used at the regional or higher scales.

Urban Energy Transition, 2008

Adhering to our goal of promoting of new and innovative research on issues of Urbanization and Gl... more Adhering to our goal of promoting of new and innovative research on issues of Urbanization and Global Environmental Change, the UGEC project is pleased to announce the UGEC International Working Paper Series. The UGEC International Working Paper Series aims to circulate and promote original and innovative work on Urbanization and Global Environmental Change issues. This Series targets work done by the academic and practitioner communities of the UGEC project and welcomes contributions that address issues related to the Themes of the UGEC Science Plan (http://www.ugec.org). Working papers on the need and practical use of scientific knowledge on global environmental change in managing, planning, and development of urban growth are also welcome. The Series provides the opportunity to scholars and practitioners to present the results of their research available in a timely fashion and receive feedback from a broader community of scientists and practitioners.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution

This research describes the change in temperatures across approximately 270 tropical cities from ... more This research describes the change in temperatures across approximately 270 tropical cities from 1960 to 2020 with a focus on urban warming. It associates urban growth indicators with temperature variations in tropical climate zones (tropical rainforest, tropical monsoon, and tropical wet-dry savanna). Our findings demonstrate that over time while temperatures have increased across the tropics, urban residents have experienced higher temperatures (minimum and maximum) than those living outside of cities. Moreover, in certain tropical zones, over the study period, temperatures have risen faster in urban areas than the background (non-urban) temperatures. The results also suggest that with continuing climate change and urban growth, temperatures will continue to rise at higher than background levels in tropical cities unless mitigation measures are implemented. Several fundamental characteristics of urban growth including population size, population density, infrastructure and urban l...

Journal of Extreme Events

In May 2020, the New York City (NYC) Mayor’s Office of Climate Resiliency (MOCR) began convening ... more In May 2020, the New York City (NYC) Mayor’s Office of Climate Resiliency (MOCR) began convening bi-weekly discussions, called the Rapid Research and Assessment (RRA) Series, between City staff and external experts in science, policy, design, engineering, communications, and planning. The goal was to rapidly develop authoritative, actionable information to help integrate resiliency into the City’s COVID response efforts. The situation in NYC is not uncommon. Extreme events often require government officials, practitioners, and citizens to call upon multiple forms of scientific and technical assistance from rapid data collection to expert elicitation, each spanning more or less involved engagement. We compare the RRA to similar rapid assessment efforts and reflect on the nature of the RRA and similar efforts to exchange and co-produce knowledge. The RRA took up topics on social cohesion, risk communication, resilient and healthy buildings, and engagement, in many cases strengthening ...

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

Towards sustainable cities: …, 2004

For the last decade, urbanists have searched for ways to move cities towards sustainability. The ... more For the last decade, urbanists have searched for ways to move cities towards sustainability. The goals seem elusive, and the task of accommodating economic, social, and environmental issues complex. Nonetheless, in daily practice, planners in cities around the world are working to make cities more sustainable. The key word here is' more,'for we might debate whether cities can ever be entirely sustainable. We can agree that sustainability implies a dynamic of progressive change that improves long-term human and ecosystem ...

This article explores historic carbon dioxide (CO 2) emission trends from road and air transporta... more This article explores historic carbon dioxide (CO 2) emission trends from road and air transportation of the United States and 26 developing and industrializing nations. It is argued that environmental trends in the newest industrializing countries do not follow the more sequential and long-term shifts experienced by the United States. The empirical analysis demonstrates that all rapidly developing countries analyzed exhibit comparable transportation CO 2 emissions per capita levels at lower levels of income per capita, or sooner, than the United States. For some developing countries (the most rapidly growing), these emissions also grow faster over time. Last, there is clear evidence that emissions from road and air sources are occurring more simultaneously compared to the United States. This pattern of changes is in contrast with the common interpretation of environmental Kuznets curves, which suggest that countries follow similar patterns of environmental impacts over time as they develop economically.

Asia Pac Viewp, 2007

Will future transportation carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita in Asia Pacific economies fo... more Will future transportation carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita in Asia Pacific economies follow historical trends of the now developed world? Evidence to date is inconclusive. A comparison at similar income levels (purchasing power parity) between recent emissions in Asia Pacific countries and historical emissions in developed countries suggests diverging patterns. (A) High-income Asia economies (Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore-'low emitters') exhibit lower emissions than a selected sample of seven developed countries (

Disaster and Risk Research: GADRI Book Series

Cities in South Asia commonly experience high heat events. These so-called heat waves, however, a... more Cities in South Asia commonly experience high heat events. These so-called heat waves, however, are increasing in intensity and are projected to increase in frequency, as the climate continues to change. Given the large and growing urban population in the region, urban planners need information on the state and trends of urban heat, the risk of this heat to human wellbeing, and ways to modify heat within the city. This chapter attempts to broadly address these issues by providing an overview of the state and trends of urban heat, urban heat-island formation, urbanization, climate change-related future heat, human risk to heat waves, and the potential for ecosystem mitigation in South Asia. The chapter complements other chapters in this volume by providing the background to the importance of future heat shock events and the potential for blue-green infrastructure to address these hazards.

Towards Sustainable Cities

For the last decade, urbanists have searched for ways to move cities towards sustainability. The ... more For the last decade, urbanists have searched for ways to move cities towards sustainability. The goals seem elusive, and the task of accommodating economic, social, and environmental issues complex. Nonetheless, in daily practice, planners in cities around the world are working to make cities more sustainable. The key word here is' more,'for we might debate whether cities can ever be entirely sustainable. We can agree that sustainability implies a dynamic of progressive change that improves long-term human and ecosystem ...

The United Nations provide detailed projections for the size of the urban and rural populations f... more The United Nations provide detailed projections for the size of the urban and rural populations for every country in the world up to the end of the century. This paper presents results from the development of a geosimulation that predicts the future geographic distribution of the global population on a grid at 1km resolution. Starting from the status quo, the simulations project the development of population numbers for every grid cell, as well as its future land cover class between the classes urban, suburban, and rural. Our initial results indicate that we will see massive population growth in areas close to the equator, which will cause challenges for the provision of drinking water, food, and energy in the face of climate change. The simulations also show that the size of the urban extents will likely more than triple to accommodate both the additional population and the continuing trend of moving from rural to urban areas.

Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy

Towards sustainable cities Definition of a city and data issues The majority of countries use a s... more Towards sustainable cities Definition of a city and data issues The majority of countries use a single characteristic or a combination of administrative, population size or density, economic and urban characteristics (e.g., paved streets, water-supply systems, sewerage systems and electric lighting) to define a city. The lower limit above which a settlement can be considered urban varies greatly, between 200 and 50,000 inhabitants, which can give rise to error when comparing urban populations (and urban areas) in different countries. For example, if India's national authorities would classify populations of 5,000 or more as urban, the country would be considered predominantly urban and not rural. In Angola, Argentina and Ethiopia, all settlements with 2,000 people or more are classified as urban. In Benin, only areas with 10,000 people or more are considered urban. In Botswana, an agglomeration of 5,000 people or more where 75 per cent of the economic activity is non-agricultural can be considered urban (Cohen, 2006). Certain countries define the urban population as comprising people who live within certain administrative centres or municipios (El Salvador) or under the jurisdiction of municipality councils (Iraq). Others define cities as places with a municipality, municipal corporation, town committee or cantonment board (Bangladesh and Pakistan). The population of any urban centre is influenced by how its boundaries are set-for instance, are they determined by the built-up area or are peri-urban areas which have little or no urban development included within them? The size of a city can be made significantly larger if fringe populations are included in official statistics; many cities have boundaries set to include the city and large areas around the city which may include small towns and large rural populations. Most large cities have more than one boundary-boundaries for the central city, for instance, for an entire metropolitan area, or for a wider planning region which often includes many rural settlements. In general, countries' urban populations are defined as the residents whose main source of income is not from agriculture or forestry (Satterthwaite, 2010). Inadequate attention paid to data limitations has led to misconceptions regarding urban trends which can ultimately distort urban policies. Urban population projections often do not include high-and low-variant estimations, which are typical of world population projections published by the United Nations (Satterthwaite, 2007; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2012). Moreover, the traditional urban/rural dichotomy has become increasingly inadequate for distinguishing between urban and rural settlements. Increased trade, labour mobility and innovation in communications have spread urban functions and influence over wide geographical areas, including rural ones. In parts of Asia and the Pacific, for example, intense economic activity in the intersection between urban and rural areas has blurred differences (Cohen, 2006). Yet, in the case of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, censuses and surveys that consider the urban/rural dichotomy are still valid since they persistently indicate social inequalities subsisting between rural and urban areas (United Nations, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2012). Still, some of the most profound social inequalities are seen within cities or within nations' urban populations. To improve the consistency and comparability of data on urban populations across countries and over time, the United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012) uses two auxiliary concepts: (a) urban agglomeration, which refers to "population contained within the contours of contiguous territory" inhabited by, e.g., 750,000 inhabitants or more and (b) metropolitan region, which includes both the contiguous territory and "surrounding areas of lower settlement density" which are under the direct influence of the city through frequent transport, roads, commuting and so forth (p. 7). In addition, there is a potential for research on urban databases and data-collection mechanisms to support local policy, planning and investment decisions. In general, caution is recommended regarding the interpretation and comparison of urban population statistics between nations, owing to different official criteria for defining urban areas, and setting city boundaries, and, in some cases, to the lack of census data.

Urbanization, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services: Challenges and Opportunities, 2013

The objective of this chapter is to examine selected connections between ongoing global urbanizat... more The objective of this chapter is to examine selected connections between ongoing global urbanization, climate change, and urban biodiversity. The direct and indirect interactions between ongoing urbanization processes and climate change have profound impacts on urban biodiversity and its capacity to provide ecosystem services for urban populations. The chapter reviews key aspects of how urbanization affects local and global climate conditions and how these conditions in turn impact urban areas. Special attention is focused on the vulnerability of urban biodiversity to these changes. Urban contexts in developing and developed countries are examined. 25.1 Introduction Urbanization is a key driver of global environmental change and linked to urban climate and climate change (While and Whitehead 2013 ; Rosenzweig et al. 2011a ; Huang et al. 2008 ; IEA 2008). Urbanization impacts the atmosphere's regulatory ecosystem services that augment climate variability at the local, regional and global scales. The accompanying climate consequences can lead to increased risk exposure for urban citizens (McGranahan et al. 2007) and vulnerabilities for urban Chapter 25

Desenvolvimento e Meio Ambiente, 2012

This article examines the historical trends of Tokyo’s marine seafood consumption and tensions ov... more This article examines the historical trends of Tokyo’s marine seafood consumption and tensions over how to promote urban sustainable consumption. Despite overwhelming evidence that global fish stocks are depleting, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government has not advanced an agenda to directly support sustainable seafood consumption. In this vacuum national government policies, increasing wealth, changes in preferences and private initiatives have promoted the consumption of ever larger amounts of seafood. Notwithstanding these forces, however, consumption patterns since the 1970s have changed in unpredictable ways. The per capita proportion consumed of prized, high trophic level and high status seafood, such as carnivorous fish, is declining while the consumption of other types of seafood from lower trophic levels is increasing. Moreover, seafood prices seem to play little role in these trends. Despite their great wealth and the forces that are promoting increased consumption, those livin...

Global Environmental Change, 2012

By bringing together and comparing strategies and experiences from three distinct global regions:... more By bringing together and comparing strategies and experiences from three distinct global regions: North America, Europe and East Asia, this book offers unique insights and new perspectives on how to develop urban sustainability. While questioning what strategies can promote sustainable cities in a global context, the book also illustrates that formulae generated out of American and European experience cannot be universally applied, but that some of the analytical approaches and experience of the other developed countries can ...

AMBIO, 2013

This paper provides an account of urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 40 countries in Europ... more This paper provides an account of urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 40 countries in Europe and examines covariates of emissions levels. We use a ''top-down'' analysis of emissions as spatially reported in the Emission Dataset for Global Atmospheric Research supplemented by Carbon Monitoring for Action from 1153 European cities larger than 50 000 population in 2000 (comprising [81 % of the total European urban population). Urban areas are defined spatially and demographically by the Global Rural Urban Mapping Project. We compare these results with ''bottom-up'' carbon accounting method results for cities in the region. Our results suggest that direct (Scopes 1 and 2) GHG emissions from urban areas range between 44 and 54 % of total anthropogenic emissions for the region. While individual urban GHG footprints vary from bottom-up studies, both the mean differences and the regional energy-related GHG emission share support previous findings. Correlation analysis indicates that the urban GHG emissions in Europe are mainly influenced by population size, density, and income and not by biophysical conditions. We argue that these data and methods of analysis are best used at the regional or higher scales.

Urban Energy Transition, 2008

Adhering to our goal of promoting of new and innovative research on issues of Urbanization and Gl... more Adhering to our goal of promoting of new and innovative research on issues of Urbanization and Global Environmental Change, the UGEC project is pleased to announce the UGEC International Working Paper Series. The UGEC International Working Paper Series aims to circulate and promote original and innovative work on Urbanization and Global Environmental Change issues. This Series targets work done by the academic and practitioner communities of the UGEC project and welcomes contributions that address issues related to the Themes of the UGEC Science Plan (http://www.ugec.org). Working papers on the need and practical use of scientific knowledge on global environmental change in managing, planning, and development of urban growth are also welcome. The Series provides the opportunity to scholars and practitioners to present the results of their research available in a timely fashion and receive feedback from a broader community of scientists and practitioners.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution

This research describes the change in temperatures across approximately 270 tropical cities from ... more This research describes the change in temperatures across approximately 270 tropical cities from 1960 to 2020 with a focus on urban warming. It associates urban growth indicators with temperature variations in tropical climate zones (tropical rainforest, tropical monsoon, and tropical wet-dry savanna). Our findings demonstrate that over time while temperatures have increased across the tropics, urban residents have experienced higher temperatures (minimum and maximum) than those living outside of cities. Moreover, in certain tropical zones, over the study period, temperatures have risen faster in urban areas than the background (non-urban) temperatures. The results also suggest that with continuing climate change and urban growth, temperatures will continue to rise at higher than background levels in tropical cities unless mitigation measures are implemented. Several fundamental characteristics of urban growth including population size, population density, infrastructure and urban l...

Journal of Extreme Events

In May 2020, the New York City (NYC) Mayor’s Office of Climate Resiliency (MOCR) began convening ... more In May 2020, the New York City (NYC) Mayor’s Office of Climate Resiliency (MOCR) began convening bi-weekly discussions, called the Rapid Research and Assessment (RRA) Series, between City staff and external experts in science, policy, design, engineering, communications, and planning. The goal was to rapidly develop authoritative, actionable information to help integrate resiliency into the City’s COVID response efforts. The situation in NYC is not uncommon. Extreme events often require government officials, practitioners, and citizens to call upon multiple forms of scientific and technical assistance from rapid data collection to expert elicitation, each spanning more or less involved engagement. We compare the RRA to similar rapid assessment efforts and reflect on the nature of the RRA and similar efforts to exchange and co-produce knowledge. The RRA took up topics on social cohesion, risk communication, resilient and healthy buildings, and engagement, in many cases strengthening ...

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change

Towards sustainable cities: …, 2004

For the last decade, urbanists have searched for ways to move cities towards sustainability. The ... more For the last decade, urbanists have searched for ways to move cities towards sustainability. The goals seem elusive, and the task of accommodating economic, social, and environmental issues complex. Nonetheless, in daily practice, planners in cities around the world are working to make cities more sustainable. The key word here is' more,'for we might debate whether cities can ever be entirely sustainable. We can agree that sustainability implies a dynamic of progressive change that improves long-term human and ecosystem ...

This article explores historic carbon dioxide (CO 2) emission trends from road and air transporta... more This article explores historic carbon dioxide (CO 2) emission trends from road and air transportation of the United States and 26 developing and industrializing nations. It is argued that environmental trends in the newest industrializing countries do not follow the more sequential and long-term shifts experienced by the United States. The empirical analysis demonstrates that all rapidly developing countries analyzed exhibit comparable transportation CO 2 emissions per capita levels at lower levels of income per capita, or sooner, than the United States. For some developing countries (the most rapidly growing), these emissions also grow faster over time. Last, there is clear evidence that emissions from road and air sources are occurring more simultaneously compared to the United States. This pattern of changes is in contrast with the common interpretation of environmental Kuznets curves, which suggest that countries follow similar patterns of environmental impacts over time as they develop economically.

Asia Pac Viewp, 2007

Will future transportation carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita in Asia Pacific economies fo... more Will future transportation carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita in Asia Pacific economies follow historical trends of the now developed world? Evidence to date is inconclusive. A comparison at similar income levels (purchasing power parity) between recent emissions in Asia Pacific countries and historical emissions in developed countries suggests diverging patterns. (A) High-income Asia economies (Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore-'low emitters') exhibit lower emissions than a selected sample of seven developed countries (