Kathrin Keil | Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (original) (raw)

Papers by Kathrin Keil

Energy Policy, 2019

Despite the expectation of potentially vast petroleum resources in the offshore Arctic over the l... more Despite the expectation of potentially vast petroleum resources in the offshore Arctic over the last decade, actual
exploration and production rates are rather low. As of today, there are only two producing oil fields and one
natural gas field in production. While technical challenges and a low oil price are among the explaining factors,
the legal regimes for awarding licenses in Arctic waters may have a significant impact on industry interest as
well. Offshore licensing regimes in Arctic countries range from State-centric in Russia to market-based in the
United States. Further, some States developed additional requirements for companies wishing to operate in the
Arctic waters. This paper examines the interconnections between the legal regimes for offshore licenses and the
rates of industry activity in petroleum development in Arctic waters. It does so by devising an analytical
comparative framework for the licensing regimes across five Arctic States. The results are then analysed in the
context of actual exploration and production rates in Arctic waters. The analysis sheds light on the role of
licensing regimes on the level of industry interest and corresponding exploration and production rates.

FU Berlin Dokumentenserver 2012, Jan 16, 2012

Working Paper 2013-3, Center for Energy Governance & Security, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea, Jan 4, 2013

Global Energy Monitor is a monthly online publication by the Center for Energy Governance and Sec... more Global Energy Monitor is a monthly online publication by the Center for Energy Governance and Security, covering recent global energy trends and issues. The Monitor is edited

IASS Working Paper, Potsdam, March 2014, Apr 2014

The authors would like to thank Christian Stöhr, Achim Maas, Axel Lauer, Carolina Cavazos Guerra ... more The authors would like to thank Christian Stöhr, Achim Maas, Axel Lauer, Carolina Cavazos Guerra and Vilena Valeyeva for their valuable comments to this working paper.

Tvergastein Interdisciplinary Journal of the Environment, 2nd issue, November 2012, pp. 36-43, Nov 2012

Jokela, Juha (ed.): Arctic security matters, Report No 24 – June 2015, EU Institute for Security Studies, Paris, p. 21-31, Jun 2015

The increasing accessibility of the Arctic Ocean due to rapidly shrinking sea ice (as outlined in... more The increasing accessibility of the Arctic Ocean due to rapidly shrinking sea ice (as outlined in the previous chapter) has sparked growing interest in exploiting the region’s natural resources. These concern predominantly:
•the conventional offshore oil and gas resources located on the continental shelves of the five Arctic coastal states; and
•the development of new fishing grounds in established northern fishing areas in Arctic countries’ exclusive economic zones (EEZ), and potentially also in hitherto untapped areas in the international waters of the high Arctic Ocean.
The projected economic development of the region also has major implications for the possibility of using new shipping routes along northeastern and northwestern Arctic routes (for trade and tourism purposes).
Although this looks like a straightforward cause-and-effect equation – the decreasing Arctic sea ice leads to an expansion of economic activity in the region – the reality is much more complex and requires a thorough investigation of the economic potential of Arctic energy, shipping and fisheries options, including the role and influence of global actors and interests. This chapter outlines the recent developments, trends, prospects and challenges concerning the economic viability of these three domains. It argues that the shrinking Arctic sea ice cover is only one among many critical drivers of transformations currently underway in the Arctic that needs to be considered as external actors seek to unlock the region’s economic potential.

European Foreign Affairs Review, Vol. 19, Issue 1, pp. 101-120, 2014

The European Union (EU) is increasingly depicted as an actor with a growing interest towards the ... more The European Union (EU) is increasingly depicted as an actor with a growing interest towards the Arctic region. In order to shed light on the various possibilities for the EU’s involvement in Arctic affairs, this article aims to have a close look at potential EU ‘gateways’ to the Arctic, subdivided into geographical-institutional and policy links, and their logical interaction. The former aspect looks at the historical, institutional, and legal links between the EU and the three Arctic actors Norway, Iceland, and Greenland.The latter examines concrete steps of cooperation between the EU and these countries in selected, Arctic-relevant policy areas. These include the challenges of environmental protection in general and climate change and sustainable development in particular, and the possibilities of benefiting from newly available Arctic resources such as oil and gas, shipping routes and fishing grounds.

Sicherheit und Frieden/Security and Peace, Special Issue on The Arctic – Regional Cooperation or Conflict, 3/2015, pp. 132-138, 2015

The ongoing transformations in the Arctic are deeply intertwined with regional and global process... more The ongoing transformations in the Arctic are deeply intertwined with regional and global processes, both in the sense of the Arctic affecting and being affected by these processes that reach beyond the Arctic’s southern borders. This article illustrates a number of such interdependencies, focusing especially on the international determining factors of Arctic energy developments, and thus shedding light on the Arctic in a global energy picture. Such determining factors include international market developments, competition with conventional and inconventional resources elsewhere, and the role and bargaining power of international energy companies.

The International Spectator: Italian Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 50, Issue 1, pp. 85-110, Mar 11, 2015

In order to assess whether the Arctic region is evolving into a region of cooperation or one of c... more In order to assess whether the Arctic region is evolving into a region of cooperation or one of confrontation, a thorough understanding of the existing (and evolving) bilateral, regional and international institutional frameworks with relevant regulations for the Arctic and their adequacy for solving possible controversies is paramount. Disputes can flare up over various issues, as the Arctic has aptly demonstrated in recent years. Whether these disputes erupt into conflict or are handled cooperatively
depends significantly on the rules and regulations that parties have put in place. While most of the literature deals with resource ownership, it is argued here that the more significant potential sources of controversy between Arctic states are issues of responsibility, liability, precaution and preparedness concerning possible transboundary environmental risks and dangers and, generally, protection of the fragile Arctic ecosystem.

Polar Geography, Vol. 37, Issue 4, Oct 16, 2014

The Russian and Norwegian Arctic are gaining notoriety as an alternative maritime route connectin... more The Russian and Norwegian Arctic are gaining notoriety as an alternative maritime route connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and as sources of natural resources. The renewed interest in the Northeast Passage or the Northern Sea Route is fueled by a recession of Arctic sea ice coupled with the discovery of new natural resources at a time when emerging and global markets are in growing demand for them. Driven by the expectation of potential future economic importance of the region, political interest and governance has been rapidly developing, mostly within the Arctic Council. However, this paper argues that optimism regarding the potential of Arctic routes as an alternative to the Suez Canal is overstated. The route involves many challenges: jurisdictional disputes create political uncertainties; shallow waters limit ship size; lack of modern deepwater ports and search and rescue (SAR) capabilities requires ships to have higher standards of autonomy and safety; harsh weather conditions and free-floating ice make navigation more difficult and schedules more variable; and more expensive ship construction and operation costs lessen the economic viability of the route. Technological advances and infrastructure investments may ameliorate navigational challenges, enabling increased shipping of natural resources from the Arctic to global markets.

Cooperation and Conflict, Vol. 49, Issue 2, pp. 160-188, Jun 2014

Neorealist and neoliberal institutionalist explanations for the state and future of the Arctic re... more Neorealist and neoliberal institutionalist explanations for the state and future of the Arctic region dominate the Arctic debate in international relations. While both schools focus on different aspects concerning the current and future state of Arctic affairs – neorealism evokes a confrontational rush for the Arctic’s resources, whereas neoliberal institutionalism propagates the necessary reform of the institutional system governing Arctic issues – both share the underlying assumption
of significant and rising stakes towards Arctic commodities. However, this article argues that this debate has hitherto failed to substantiate the actual stakes of the main actors involved. Consequently, many studies make grandiloquent statements about prospects of cooperation and conflict and the appropriate institutional framework for the Arctic region, based on only limited empirical support. This article aims to fill this gap by analysing the Arctic oil and gas interests of the five Arctic littoral states (Russia, USA, Canada, Norway and Denmark/Greenland). The analysis
shows greatly different levels of interests towards the High North among the Arctic states. The findings make it possible to make more credible statements about the likelihood of confrontation over Arctic resources and necessary institutional adjustments. The evidence shows that the often-evoked issue of geopolitical rush for Arctic resources is unlikely to eventuate. Nonetheless, there remain institutional challenges for the protection of the fragile Arctic ecosystem.

Talks by Kathrin Keil

Proceedings, Arctic Futures Symposium 2013, Brussels, Belgium, p. 62-64