Dr.Suresh K .G. | IBS, Hyderabad, India (original) (raw)

Uploads

Papers by Dr.Suresh K .G.

Abstract Purpose – This study aims to examine the stationarity characteristics of per capita GDP... more Abstract
Purpose – This study aims to examine the stationarity characteristics of per capita GDP of 17 Asian
countries and subpanels for South Asia, East Asia, and high income Asian countries in nonlinear
framework.
Design/methodology/approach – The authors employed a recently developed nonlinear panel unit
root test suggested by Ucar and Omaga in PESTAR framework for full panel and the subpanels.
Findings – The results indicate that per capita GDP for the full panel of Asian countries and panel of
South Asian countries are linear nonstationary, whereas for the panel of East Asia and high income
developed countries have a nonlinear data generating process and are stationary.
Originality/value – The use of newly developed nonlinear panel unit root test for Asian countries
is the main contribution of the study. In that aspect, this is the first study to employ such a test in
this area

Economic Modelling

Weexamine the relationship between two inflation indices, consumer price index (CPI) and producer... more Weexamine the relationship between two inflation indices, consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index
(PPI) forMexico, a case study countrywhich has successfully implemented inflation targeting after the economic
crisis and high inflationary situation in 1995. Since the causality running fromPPI to CPI exemplifies the cost push
nature of inflation and the opposite is the indicator of demand pull inflation, this analysis could provide significant
policy implications. We contribute to the literature by decomposing the time–frequency relationship
between CPI and PPI through continuous wavelet approach. Our results indicate a bidirectional relationship
between CPI and PPI. In short periods (1 to 7 months scale) CPI is leading PPI, while for longer periods (8 to
32months scale) PPI is the leading variable.

Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies

The stimulus packages announced to deal with the economic slowdown has increased the fiscal defic... more The stimulus packages announced to deal with the economic slowdown has increased the fiscal deficit of many countries and it spurred the debate on the possible effect of these fiscal shocks on other economic variable especially the current account. In this study, we analysed the effect of fiscal deficit on current account of India using the VAR as well as the Structural VAR (SVAR) analysis. Against the twin deficit hypothesis; which predicts a positive effect of fiscal deficit on current account deficit, we found that the fiscal shocks are negatively affecting the current account deficit; high fiscal deficit improves the current account; and high current account deficit improves the fiscal situation of the India. Therefore, the historical data indicates the presence of “twin divergence” instead of the “twin deficit” hypothesis in Indian context.

Springer

Since economic theory provides reasons for nonlinearity in economic variables due to frictions/di... more Since economic theory provides reasons for nonlinearity in economic variables due to frictions/distortions in the economy, the use of linear unit root test to examine the nonstationary properties of per capita GDP may provide misleading results. With this background we have analyzed the mean reversion properties of per capita real GDP of ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) countries (for the period 1950 to 2010) using the recently developed Ucar and Omay (2009) nonlinear panel unit root test. The results indicate that the per capita GDP of ASEAN countries are nonlinear process and are stationary.

This study examines stationarity characteristics of per capita GDP of a panel of 17 Asian countr... more This study examines stationarity characteristics of per capita GDP of a panel
of 17 Asian countries and sub-panels. We employed a series of panel unit root tests that
assume cross sectional independence and cross sectional dependence. The results of the
second-generation tests reveal stationarity of per capita GDPfor the entireAsian panel, as
well as the East Asian and High Income Asian sub-panels. However, we find weak
evidence for stationarity for the South Asian panel. The stationarity properties of the East
Asian countries were strongly consistent with the idea that business cycles have stationary
fluctuations around a deterministic trend, and vice versa hold for the South Asian panel.

The study re-examined the time series properties and regional disparities in Chinese inflation b... more The study re-examined the time series properties and regional disparities in Chinese
inflation by extending the work of Chong, Zhang, and Feng (2011). For this purpose we
employed the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root test with one structural break and two
structural breaks suggested by Lee and Strazicich (2003, 2004) and a recently developed
ADF type unit root test with two structural breaks of Narayan and Popp (2010).
We found that national, urban and rural series of the overall inflation series, clothing,
and food, national series of education and residence and the rural series of residence
and education are stationary. We also found regional disparity in Chinese inflation, but
the disparities existed only in education inflation series.

Economics Bulletine

The study examines the weak form efficiency in stock returns for the economies of Brazil, Russia,... more The study examines the weak form efficiency in stock returns for the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC), during January 2000 to December 2010. The study uses LM unit root test with one and two structural breaks as given by Lee and Strazicich (2003, 2004), along with the recently developed ADF type unit root test having two structural breaks as proposed by Narayan and Popp (2010). Subsequently, the BDS and K2k tests were used for checking the i.i.d properties of stock returns. We find the existence of unit root among the stock returns of the BRIC economies. However, these stock returns are not weak form market efficient as they do not follow the i.i.d property indicated by the K2k test that is also required for fulfillment of weak form efficiency (Rahman and Saadi, 2008).

We have analyzed the short term and long term linkages between the sectoral indexes of Bombay St... more We have analyzed the short term and long term linkages between the sectoral indexes of
Bombay Stock Exchange in India by using the daily data on nine sectoral indexes for the period
23rd August 2004 to 31st June 2010. After confirming the same order of integration of the study
variables from the unit root test incorporating endogenously determined structural breaks,
structural cointegration test has been carried out followed by VECM , Impulse response functions
and variance decomposition analysis. The cointegration analysis results indicate that most of the
sectoral indexes in India are cointegrated with at least one of the other indexes indicating that the
sectoral indexes posses’ useful information about the movements of other indexes. This is
confirmed by the Impulse response function analysis also. The comovements between the
sectoral indices indicate that the Bombay stock exchange is not weak form efficient and the
possibility of sectoral portfolio diversification is limited

This study uses exchange rate and OECD GDP to explain the exports of India for the period 1994 to... more This study uses exchange rate and OECD GDP to explain the exports of India for the period 1994 to 2008. Since the ADF and Phillips-Perron tests show the first order cointegration in Indian exports, OECD GDP and exchange rate, the first difference of the log of exports of India has been regressed on first differences of the log of OECD GDP and the log of one of the four exchange rate variables at a time namely the Trade weighted Real effective exchange rate(REERT), Exports weighted Real Effective exchange rate(REERX), Trade weighted Nominal Effective exchange rate(NEERT) and Export weighted nominal effective exchange rate(NEERX). The empirical results indicate that only OECD GDP is significant in explaining the Indian exports.

After crossing the Hindu growth rate in 1990s the Indian economy has been experiencing a consiste... more After crossing the Hindu growth rate in 1990s the Indian economy has been experiencing a consistent and increasing
growth of national gross domestic product both at current and constant prices. This growth in the national level gross
domestic product is resulting in a high growth rate of the state domestic product of various states. However, it will be
interesting to examine whether there is any convergence in the economic growth of the Indian states or not. The findings
of present study indicates the convergence of per capita income in the pre reform period, while in the post reform period it
confirms the divergence in per capita income among the Indian states

The relationship between economic growth and international trade have been discussed intensively ... more The relationship between economic growth and international trade have been discussed intensively in the literature in Indian as well as at the international perspective over years, however the relationship between tourism and economic growth or international trade have not attracted much attention in the literature. This study has made an attempt to test the short-run and long-run relationships among tourism, trade and real income growth in India for the period 1996 to 2009 using quarterly data. The cointegration analysis results indicate the existence of a long-run relationship among the study variables. But we could not find any short-run relationship among the study variables in the VECM analysis, despite the significant error correction term.

Economic Modelling

Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies

Springer

Economics Bulletine