Rumel Dahiya | Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis (original) (raw)

Papers by Rumel Dahiya

Political Islam and the Arab Uprising: Islamist Politics in Changing Times, 2017

Two years after the outbreak of the Arab revolutions, the trajectory and the outcome of the proce... more Two years after the outbreak of the Arab revolutions, the trajectory and the outcome of the process are still uncertain. Whereas the autocrats in Tunisia and Egypt were overthrown, the alternate mechanism has not really worked. As per the Failed State Index, published in the US, Egypt has moved up from 49th to 31st position and Tunisia from 118th to 94th position. It is almost as expected. In the shadow of despotic regimes, no political alternative could develop and take roots, as a result of which, the incoming regimes made some of the very same mistakes that the outgoing regimes had made. Fragmentation of state authority has taken place to some extent in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen. However, the good news is that there is a real agenda for democratization in the region and for the first time, elites are being put to test. Serious discussions on civil-military relations, the place of civil society organizations, transparency and the role of underground groups have all gained importance in the political arena. A complex process of adjustment will follow before the state authority is stabilized.The revolution in the Arab world has not stopped. The civil war in Syria has slowed the momentum of the Arab Spring because in many countries the people may be apprehensive of a similar fate visiting them if they agitated. However, the latest turn of events in Egypt suggest that the convulsions are likely to continue for many years until democracy takes roots. For that to happen, inclusive political process and tolerance amongst contending political players will be essential.Keeping in mind their importance and the unexpected nature of developments in the two important countries in the region, this article primarily focuses on the turmoil in Egypt and the impact of the Arab Spring on Turkey. Besides, the paper reflects on the future of political Islam in the region.Fresh Turmoil in EgyptThe emerging consensus is that Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood have lost Egypt. The revolution against the Hosni Mubarak regime in early 2011 was literally leaderless but had the support of diverse sections of the Egyptian society; particularly the youth. The Muslim Brotherhood was not in the forefront of the revolution but was definitely its main beneficiary by virtue of being the best-organized social and political group. The military assumed power soon after Mubarak was over-thrown but gradually ceded power to the elected president in 2012. The president also made many changes amongst the senior positions in the armed forces including replacement of General Tantawi by General Sissy as the defence minister. However, there was a constant struggle between the judiciary and the old bureaucracy on the one hand, and Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood on the other. Having won the presidency in the run-off with merely 51.7 per cent of the votes against a candidate identified with the old disgraced regime should have been a reminder to the president that neither he nor his party enjoyed an across- the-board support amongst the voters and that many non-Brotherhood revolutionaries would have voted for him believing his promise of national unity and inclusiveness.A series of missteps by Morsi like imposing media curbs, interference in the judicial processes including appointment of an ideologically aligned prosecutor-general, efforts to rush through a constitution without building national consensus around it, establishment of party control over state media, appointment of loyalists in key state positions, were only some of the measures taken by Morsi to hijack the revolutionary agenda. The biggest error of Morsi was the constitutional declaration of November 2012. He gave himself the powers to amend the constitution unilaterally and immunity to his decisions from judicial review, which brought all political elements other than the Muslim Brotherhood together in opposition to Morsi and his party. The new constitution was supposed to herald a new democratic future for Egypt. …

Indian Foreign Affairs Journal, Jul 1, 2012

India-Pakistan relations. But, in a scenario in which Pakistan might collapse as its economy cont... more India-Pakistan relations. But, in a scenario in which Pakistan might collapse as its economy continues to go downhill and religious fundamentalist forces take control of the government, a totally new situation might emerge. The probability of Pakistan's collapse may be small but it is not so insignificant that it can be ignored altogether. How will India deal with a collapsing or failing Pakistan? What will India's foreign policy be if such a scenario materialises. What will be the trigger point for such a scenario to materialise: a revolt in Balochistan or a war BANGLADESH Bangladesh is critical for India's security, the development of the Northeast and the success of its 'Look East Policy'. The two countries have had a troubled relationship since the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman in 1975. However, there are hopeful signs of a turnaround in bilateral relations initiated by Sheikh Hasina's visit to India in 2010 and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's return visit to Dhaka in 2011. The challenge before the two countries is to ensure that the positive beginnings in bilateral relations are sustained. One of the most important issues taken up for study in this volume is that of migration from Bangladesh into India. Bangladeshis are in denial mode and do not accept that there is any migration from their side. Yet, many well-informed Bangladeshis not only accept the facts on the ground but also warn that migration would intensify as Bangladesh faces the consequences of sea level rise, coastal erosion and shortened cycles of floods and droughts. India and Bangladesh have many issues to resolve including that of transit and connectivity, illegal smuggling, water sharing, trade, etc., but, migration will remain the major issue on the agenda. As The intentions behind Chinese action vis-à-vis India in the last two years are not fully understood. Are they aggressive or benign? In the context of uncertainty within China, it would be fair to expect the xxvi India's Neighbourhood The next 20 years will see greater interaction between India and Myanmar. The political changes in Myanmar are slow but promising. In a marked departure from the past trends, the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton visited Myanmar in November 2011 and in April 2012, Aung San Suu Kyi participated in the fledgling democratic process in Myanmar and won the by-elections to become a member of the national legislature. Myanmar is rich in natural resources and has a superb geo-strategic location. China has invested considerably and rapidly in Myanmar and there is a perception that it may seek to push India out of Myanmar. The challenge before India in the next 20 years will be to ensure that it invests in Myanmar, contributes to its growth and draws it into the various regional cooperation projects. The development and connectivity of infrastructure projects between Northeast India and Myanmar is of critical importance. The game changing event that might occur in the not too distant future is the completion of the oil pipeline from the Bay of Bengal through Myanmar to China. India will have to deal with this situation. Myanmar will be more integrated with the world and its isolation will end. This will open up fresh avenues for Indo-Myanmar relations. NEPAL Will the present comprehensive political, economic and social transformation underway in Nepal have a positive impact on India-Nepal relations? Despite the current political crisis emanating from the inconclusive process of Constitution making, in the next 20 years, a new Nepal will emerge. It is likely to be republican and more democratic. This could pave the way for a deeper and friendlier relationship between India and Nepal. But uncertainties remain. The new political system has not yet crystallised as the Constitution has yet to be finalised. The Maoists have been mainstreamed to a considerable extent and have contributed two Prime Ministers in the last three years. However, the big questions relating to federalism, the form of the Constitution, language, economic system, etc., are still unresolved. The next 20 years will most likely be taken up by the long and complicated process of nation-building. Anti-Indianism in Nepal, hydroelectricity and open borders are the three major issues studied in this volume. Because India is a major factor in the life of an ordinary Nepali, anti-Indianism is a fact of political life in Nepal. While millions of Nepalis benefit from close relations with India, the media and political parties routinely accuse India of interference in their country. It is unlikely that this tendency will disappear altogether. Despite these positive developments, fundamental uncertainties which could block Sri Lanka's growth remain. The ethnic conflict has not been resolved. Sinhala nationalism is on the rise in the wake of LTTE's defeat. The Tamil minorities continue to feel discriminated. Sri Lanka's human rights record has also come under international scrutiny. This has seriously dented the country's international image. In light of these uncertainties, Sri Lanka's unhindered growth cannot be taken for granted. Sri Lanka has strategic importance for India. What is the likely outlook Bangladesh Chapter 2

Strategic Analysis, 2010

This article may be used for research, teaching and private study purposes. Any substantial or sy... more This article may be used for research, teaching and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution , reselling , loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. The publisher does not give any warranty express or implied or make any representation that the contents will be complete or accurate or up to date. The accuracy of any instructions, formulae and drug doses should be independently verified with primary sources. The publisher shall not be liable for any loss, actions, claims, proceedings, demand or costs or damages whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with or arising out of the use of this material.

Indian Foreign Affairs Journal, 2015

Kate Sullivan, Competing Visions of India in World Politics: India's Rise Beyond the West (Lo... more Kate Sullivan, Competing Visions of India in World Politics: India's Rise Beyond the West (London, Palgrave Macmillan, 2015), Pages: 224, Price: £58.00India's international status has been rising over the last two decades at the back of its growing economic and military power. India has, simultaneously, tried to engage with the big powers and its long-standing friends amongst the developing world. Therefore, it's role in world politics is being increasingly debated. Perceptions about India are formed based on mostly Western viewpoints, and perceptions of other important stakeholders rarely receive attention. Different countries have different perspectives on India based on issues that affect them directly. However, the less articulated and divergent views are sometimes overlooked by Indian elites. It is in this context that the book "Competing Visions of India and World Politics: India's Rise Beyond the West", edited by Kate Sullivan, consisting of chapters...

Rumel Dahiya and Udai Bhanu Singh (eds), Delhi Dialogue VII : ASEAN-India Shaping the Post-2015 A... more Rumel Dahiya and Udai Bhanu Singh (eds), Delhi Dialogue VII : ASEAN-India Shaping the Post-2015 Agenda (New Delhi, Pentagon Press, 2015), Pages: xlvi + 204, Price: Rs. 995This useful volume from IDSA brings together the speeches, presentations and papers delivered at the Seventh Delhi Dialogue, devoted to the theme of "ASEAN-India: Shaping the Post-2015 Agenda", held in New Delhi on 11 and 12 March 2015. Apart from the obvious importance of the theme itself, Delhi Dialogue VII assumes added political significance on account of the increased salience and impetus, which the India-ASEAN ties have acquired under the NDA Government.Delhi Dialogue VII was preceded by the 12th India-ASEAN Summit and 9th East Asia Summit held at Nay Pyi Taw in Myanmar in November 2014, at which Prime Minister Narendra Modi had pledged to upgrade India's hitherto "Look East Policy" towards ASEAN to an "Act East Policy". In the past, such declarations have generally tended to remain at the level of rhetoric, with little or no follow-up action, virtually forgotten until the next scheduled meeting.This time, however, India's expressed interest in strengthening relations with the ASEAN region was followed by a flurry of heightened diplomatic activities. During the last six months, President Pranab Mukherjee has visited Vietnam and External Affairs Minister Shushma Swaraj has visited Myanmar, Singapore and Vietnam. In turn, there have been high-level visits to India from Vietnam and Singapore. India and ASEAN signed a long awaited Agreement on Trade in Services and Investments in September 2014. In January 2025, India established an independent Mission to ASEAN in Jakarta.At the same time, ASEAN itself is moving towards closer integration and cooperation on the basis of an ASEAN Community, to be established at the end of this year, as the principal instrument for realising the objectives of its ASEAN Community Vision 2025. How does India fit in this scenario and what are the perspectives and prospects for the future development of IndiaASEAN relations?The ASEAN was established in 1967 at the height of the Cold War. Beginning essentially as a bulwark and ideological counter-balance to the spread of communism in South East Asia, ASEAN has adjusted well to the changing realities of the international situation. It has co-opted former adversaries such as Vietnam, as well as economic back-waters such as Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, into the organisation. It has moved away from its earlier posture of suspicion and antagonism towards China and created institutionalised structures of co-operation with China as well as with Japan and South Korea, the other economic power-houses in Asia. The creation of ASEAN Plus Three in 1997 was a watershed for the organisation, marking the shift to an era of closer economic co-operation and better integration of the economies of ASEAN as well as the "Plus Three".The India-ASEAN relations got off to a slow start, largely because of the benign neglect, which characterised the approach of both sides in the years prior to the liberalisation of the Indian economy. India prioritised its linkages with the oil-exporting economies of West Asia and paid little attention to its Eastern neighbours beyond making the expected token references to the cultural and people-to-people links bequeathed by history. With the licensepermit Raj constraining the Indian economy to a 'Hindu rate of growth', the ASEAN exhibited little interest in strengthening trade and economic linkages with India.Relations moved on to a qualitative new track after the Indian reform process got under way in the early 1990s when Prime Minister Narasimha Rao initiated "Look East" as the policy paradigm to frame India's approach to ASEAN. India-ASEAN relations were progressively upgraded as India became a Sectoral Partner of ASEAN in 1992, a Dialogue Partner in 1996 and a Summit Level Partner at the Eighth ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh in 2002. …

Indian Foreign Affairs Journal, 2015

The security situation in West Asia has been continuously deteriorating ever since the onset of t... more The security situation in West Asia has been continuously deteriorating ever since the onset of the Arab Spring in December 2010. The internal security situation in Syria, Iraq and Yemen has gone from bad to worse. The regional powers continue to fight proxy wars on sectarian lines, pumping huge amount of money and weapons to bolster their favoured groups. The involvement of extra-regional players such as the USA and Russia in the internal conflicts in West Asia has further aggravated the situation.The prospect of the growth of democracy in the region in the immediate future has receded. Most regimes have been able to keep at bay, at least for the time being, the calls for change. The expectations from the Arab Spring have turned out to have been overambitious for a region where popular democracy was an oxymoron. The old order is reasserting itself and is trying to make things difficult for the fragile new order. The Arab Spring is now commonly referred to as Arab Winter, reflecting...

Strategic Year Book 2021, 2021

The founders of the republic decided to make Turkey a secular state, adopting French constitution... more The founders of the republic decided to make Turkey a secular state, adopting French constitutional principle of secularism. However, beginning from around 2007, the Turkish government no longer not hide its Islamist proclivities, domestically or internationally. It has openly embraced jihadis in Syria and has employed them in Libya and Azerbaijan; it supports terror-sponsoring states like Pakistan; and has deliberately soured relations with Israel. This article studies and comments upon contemporary Turkey where its desire to regain Ottoman glory has given rise to three challenges: Islamism, Militarism and Erdogan. These are giving it a destabilising image in the world.

Operation Golden Bird, conducted along the Indo-Myanmar border in the North-Eastern state of Mizo... more Operation Golden Bird, conducted along the Indo-Myanmar border in the North-Eastern state of Mizoram under the aegis of 57 Mountain Division (57 Mtn Div) in April–May 1995, has often been portrayed as a joint operation between the armed forces of India and Myanmar. In reality, however, this operation was planned and executed by the Indian Army alone.

DEBATE External Interventions and Internal Instability In West Asia: Implications For India

India should approach emerging situation in West Asia as one that provides an opportunity to play... more India should approach emerging situation in West Asia as one that provides an opportunity to play a more effective role in the shaping of the new architecture

The ASEAN-India partnership that has progressed over the last 23 years is destined to play a cruc... more The ASEAN-India partnership that has progressed over
the last 23 years is destined to play a crucial role in shaping ASEAN’s post-2015 agenda. ASEAN-India relations received momentum in the early 1990s with the introduction of India’s Look East policy, coinciding with India’s economic reforms. ASEAN, with a combined GDP of US$ 2.3 trillion (in 2013), a large
market of 630 million people, good connectivity, and free trade agreements
with major partners covers a dynamic region which exercises substantial
collective economic influence regionally and globally. In combination with India this constitutes a community of more than 1.8 billion people—nearly a quarter of the world’s population, and a combined GDP of about US$ 4 trillion.

'Sovereignty' and 'history' have a universal context in international politics. But in Beijing's ... more 'Sovereignty' and 'history' have a universal context in international politics. But in Beijing's strategic
foreign policy setting, the logic of 'sovereignty' and 'history' are employed or applied selectively.
This is clear in the context of its reservation on India's oil exploration in the South China Sea (SCS)
and its own plans to implement the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) through Pakistan-
Occupied Kashmir (POK) despite India's reservations. The strategic implications of these matters
are huge for India. India needs to understand the complexity behind both matters and discuss
them prudently with China. A clearly articulated perspective must be enunciated by India about
the questionable 'legality' of CPEC. India not only needs to ask China to desist from CPEC projects
in POK but also to clearly state that any Chinese activities in that region affects India's 'sovereignty'.
Besides, New Delhi must review its current approach towards POK and start asserting its claim
more intently than earlier.

The internal security situation in the North-eastern states of India is complex. It requires peop... more The internal security situation in the North-eastern states of India is complex. It requires people with in depth knowledge of the terrain, society, politics and culture and history of insurgency in the region to be placed in positions entrusted with the handling of affairs. Frequent change of interlocutors, for example between Naga groups and Government of India, would not be desirable since delicate negotiations require a great degree of trust between negotiators and that can only come about with longevity of engagement. The Government must focus on concluding final peace agreements with the groups that are part of the peace process as soon as possible so that all the energies could then be applied in tackling the groups that remain intransigent. India's Act East Policy could only be successful if we develop connectivity in the North-eastern states and permit greater people-to-people contact with the people of the ASEAN, and particularly with the people of Myanmar. Investments in the region are required for the economic advancement of the people. These would require the creation of a peaceful environment in the North-eastern states. Finally, instead of letting turf wars decide the outcome, Assam Rifles must continue to be responsible for guarding the India-Myanmar border.

This is a co-edited book of proceedings of Delhi Dialogue VI held in New Delhi

Each country’s desire to dominate the region and their embedded sense of insecurity has created c... more Each country’s desire to dominate the region and their embedded sense of insecurity has created conditions
which have raised the spectre of a major regional conflict. It would be useful to go some decades back to
analyse the trajectory of relations between Iran and Israel.

India simultaneously is entering a period of strategic opportunity but is also facing tremendous ... more India simultaneously is entering a period of strategic opportunity but is also
facing tremendous challenges that include terrorism and internal unrest, that
threaten its vital self interests such as a peaceful neighbourhood. It has to cope
with the prevailing uncertainty, the global shift in balance of power and
persistent external threats. More importantly, despite overall impressive
economic growth, the domestic threats and challenges have the potential of
hampering the rise of India. As it grows economically and gains greater
geopolitical heft it will be required to play a more proactive role on the world
stage. It is incumbent upon the leadership therefore to clearly articulate India’s
national vision, interests and objectives to the world and ensure a synergy in
all the instruments of our national power to achieve the desired ends.

Two years after the outbreak of the Arab revolutions, the trajectory and the outcome of the proce... more Two years after the outbreak of the Arab revolutions, the trajectory and the outcome of the process are still uncertain. Whereas the autocrats in Tunisia and Egypt were overthrown, the alternate mechanism has not really worked. As per the Failed State Index, published in the US, Egypt has moved up from 49th to 31st position and Tunisia from 118th to 94th position. It is almost as expected. In the shadow of despotic regimes, no political alternative could develop and take roots, as a result of which, the incoming regimes made some of the very same mistakes that the outgoing regimes had made. Fragmentation of state authority has taken place to some extent in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen. However, the good news is that there is a real agenda for democratization in the region and for the first time, elites are being put to test. Serious discussions on civil-military relations, the place of civil society organizations, transparency and the role of underground groups have all gained importance in the political arena. A complex process of adjustment will follow before the state authority is stabilized.

To many people Pakistan is a state beyond repair. Its institutions are weak and its Army literall... more To many people Pakistan is a state beyond repair. Its institutions are weak and its Army literally owns the state. But recent events give indications of a possible turnaround and a more stable future. India has very little leverages in shaping a peaceful, stable and friendly Pakistan but its own progress can make Pakistani society, fearful of being left behind, force a change in the state’s policy orientation

Whereas employing Armed Forces may appear to be an attractive idea in the face of inability of st... more Whereas employing Armed Forces may appear to be an attractive idea in the face of inability of state and central police forces and PMF to control the menace the adverse affects of long term commitment of Armed Forces particularly that on the Army, needs to be understood. Their involvement in anti-naxal operations will seriously effect their combat readiness to face external security challenges which we can ill afford. We need to develop other potent alternatives for which adequate scope exists.

Even the most optimist scenario for Pakistan in the short to medium term is bleak. In the long te... more Even the most optimist scenario for Pakistan in the short to medium term is bleak. In the long term, in any case Jihadis like Hafiz Saeed would like to see the government so weakened and the Army so exhausted that they can glide into the seat of power without much difficulty. Therefore, even the long term scenario for Pakistan is no better. Growing misery of the people and chaos created by the Jihadis has the potential to make the mainstream political parties irrelevant in the longer term unless they change their ways

Corruption involving Armed Forces personnel obviously and rightly attracts greater attention beca... more Corruption involving Armed Forces personnel obviously and rightly attracts greater attention because they are not expected to be indulging in it. It goes against a soldier’s ‘dharma’. One wanting to get rich has no reason to join the Armed Forces.

Political Islam and the Arab Uprising: Islamist Politics in Changing Times, 2017

Two years after the outbreak of the Arab revolutions, the trajectory and the outcome of the proce... more Two years after the outbreak of the Arab revolutions, the trajectory and the outcome of the process are still uncertain. Whereas the autocrats in Tunisia and Egypt were overthrown, the alternate mechanism has not really worked. As per the Failed State Index, published in the US, Egypt has moved up from 49th to 31st position and Tunisia from 118th to 94th position. It is almost as expected. In the shadow of despotic regimes, no political alternative could develop and take roots, as a result of which, the incoming regimes made some of the very same mistakes that the outgoing regimes had made. Fragmentation of state authority has taken place to some extent in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen. However, the good news is that there is a real agenda for democratization in the region and for the first time, elites are being put to test. Serious discussions on civil-military relations, the place of civil society organizations, transparency and the role of underground groups have all gained importance in the political arena. A complex process of adjustment will follow before the state authority is stabilized.The revolution in the Arab world has not stopped. The civil war in Syria has slowed the momentum of the Arab Spring because in many countries the people may be apprehensive of a similar fate visiting them if they agitated. However, the latest turn of events in Egypt suggest that the convulsions are likely to continue for many years until democracy takes roots. For that to happen, inclusive political process and tolerance amongst contending political players will be essential.Keeping in mind their importance and the unexpected nature of developments in the two important countries in the region, this article primarily focuses on the turmoil in Egypt and the impact of the Arab Spring on Turkey. Besides, the paper reflects on the future of political Islam in the region.Fresh Turmoil in EgyptThe emerging consensus is that Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood have lost Egypt. The revolution against the Hosni Mubarak regime in early 2011 was literally leaderless but had the support of diverse sections of the Egyptian society; particularly the youth. The Muslim Brotherhood was not in the forefront of the revolution but was definitely its main beneficiary by virtue of being the best-organized social and political group. The military assumed power soon after Mubarak was over-thrown but gradually ceded power to the elected president in 2012. The president also made many changes amongst the senior positions in the armed forces including replacement of General Tantawi by General Sissy as the defence minister. However, there was a constant struggle between the judiciary and the old bureaucracy on the one hand, and Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood on the other. Having won the presidency in the run-off with merely 51.7 per cent of the votes against a candidate identified with the old disgraced regime should have been a reminder to the president that neither he nor his party enjoyed an across- the-board support amongst the voters and that many non-Brotherhood revolutionaries would have voted for him believing his promise of national unity and inclusiveness.A series of missteps by Morsi like imposing media curbs, interference in the judicial processes including appointment of an ideologically aligned prosecutor-general, efforts to rush through a constitution without building national consensus around it, establishment of party control over state media, appointment of loyalists in key state positions, were only some of the measures taken by Morsi to hijack the revolutionary agenda. The biggest error of Morsi was the constitutional declaration of November 2012. He gave himself the powers to amend the constitution unilaterally and immunity to his decisions from judicial review, which brought all political elements other than the Muslim Brotherhood together in opposition to Morsi and his party. The new constitution was supposed to herald a new democratic future for Egypt. …

Indian Foreign Affairs Journal, Jul 1, 2012

India-Pakistan relations. But, in a scenario in which Pakistan might collapse as its economy cont... more India-Pakistan relations. But, in a scenario in which Pakistan might collapse as its economy continues to go downhill and religious fundamentalist forces take control of the government, a totally new situation might emerge. The probability of Pakistan's collapse may be small but it is not so insignificant that it can be ignored altogether. How will India deal with a collapsing or failing Pakistan? What will India's foreign policy be if such a scenario materialises. What will be the trigger point for such a scenario to materialise: a revolt in Balochistan or a war BANGLADESH Bangladesh is critical for India's security, the development of the Northeast and the success of its 'Look East Policy'. The two countries have had a troubled relationship since the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman in 1975. However, there are hopeful signs of a turnaround in bilateral relations initiated by Sheikh Hasina's visit to India in 2010 and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's return visit to Dhaka in 2011. The challenge before the two countries is to ensure that the positive beginnings in bilateral relations are sustained. One of the most important issues taken up for study in this volume is that of migration from Bangladesh into India. Bangladeshis are in denial mode and do not accept that there is any migration from their side. Yet, many well-informed Bangladeshis not only accept the facts on the ground but also warn that migration would intensify as Bangladesh faces the consequences of sea level rise, coastal erosion and shortened cycles of floods and droughts. India and Bangladesh have many issues to resolve including that of transit and connectivity, illegal smuggling, water sharing, trade, etc., but, migration will remain the major issue on the agenda. As The intentions behind Chinese action vis-à-vis India in the last two years are not fully understood. Are they aggressive or benign? In the context of uncertainty within China, it would be fair to expect the xxvi India's Neighbourhood The next 20 years will see greater interaction between India and Myanmar. The political changes in Myanmar are slow but promising. In a marked departure from the past trends, the US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton visited Myanmar in November 2011 and in April 2012, Aung San Suu Kyi participated in the fledgling democratic process in Myanmar and won the by-elections to become a member of the national legislature. Myanmar is rich in natural resources and has a superb geo-strategic location. China has invested considerably and rapidly in Myanmar and there is a perception that it may seek to push India out of Myanmar. The challenge before India in the next 20 years will be to ensure that it invests in Myanmar, contributes to its growth and draws it into the various regional cooperation projects. The development and connectivity of infrastructure projects between Northeast India and Myanmar is of critical importance. The game changing event that might occur in the not too distant future is the completion of the oil pipeline from the Bay of Bengal through Myanmar to China. India will have to deal with this situation. Myanmar will be more integrated with the world and its isolation will end. This will open up fresh avenues for Indo-Myanmar relations. NEPAL Will the present comprehensive political, economic and social transformation underway in Nepal have a positive impact on India-Nepal relations? Despite the current political crisis emanating from the inconclusive process of Constitution making, in the next 20 years, a new Nepal will emerge. It is likely to be republican and more democratic. This could pave the way for a deeper and friendlier relationship between India and Nepal. But uncertainties remain. The new political system has not yet crystallised as the Constitution has yet to be finalised. The Maoists have been mainstreamed to a considerable extent and have contributed two Prime Ministers in the last three years. However, the big questions relating to federalism, the form of the Constitution, language, economic system, etc., are still unresolved. The next 20 years will most likely be taken up by the long and complicated process of nation-building. Anti-Indianism in Nepal, hydroelectricity and open borders are the three major issues studied in this volume. Because India is a major factor in the life of an ordinary Nepali, anti-Indianism is a fact of political life in Nepal. While millions of Nepalis benefit from close relations with India, the media and political parties routinely accuse India of interference in their country. It is unlikely that this tendency will disappear altogether. Despite these positive developments, fundamental uncertainties which could block Sri Lanka's growth remain. The ethnic conflict has not been resolved. Sinhala nationalism is on the rise in the wake of LTTE's defeat. The Tamil minorities continue to feel discriminated. Sri Lanka's human rights record has also come under international scrutiny. This has seriously dented the country's international image. In light of these uncertainties, Sri Lanka's unhindered growth cannot be taken for granted. Sri Lanka has strategic importance for India. What is the likely outlook Bangladesh Chapter 2

Strategic Analysis, 2010

This article may be used for research, teaching and private study purposes. Any substantial or sy... more This article may be used for research, teaching and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution , reselling , loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. The publisher does not give any warranty express or implied or make any representation that the contents will be complete or accurate or up to date. The accuracy of any instructions, formulae and drug doses should be independently verified with primary sources. The publisher shall not be liable for any loss, actions, claims, proceedings, demand or costs or damages whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with or arising out of the use of this material.

Indian Foreign Affairs Journal, 2015

Kate Sullivan, Competing Visions of India in World Politics: India's Rise Beyond the West (Lo... more Kate Sullivan, Competing Visions of India in World Politics: India's Rise Beyond the West (London, Palgrave Macmillan, 2015), Pages: 224, Price: £58.00India's international status has been rising over the last two decades at the back of its growing economic and military power. India has, simultaneously, tried to engage with the big powers and its long-standing friends amongst the developing world. Therefore, it's role in world politics is being increasingly debated. Perceptions about India are formed based on mostly Western viewpoints, and perceptions of other important stakeholders rarely receive attention. Different countries have different perspectives on India based on issues that affect them directly. However, the less articulated and divergent views are sometimes overlooked by Indian elites. It is in this context that the book "Competing Visions of India and World Politics: India's Rise Beyond the West", edited by Kate Sullivan, consisting of chapters...

Rumel Dahiya and Udai Bhanu Singh (eds), Delhi Dialogue VII : ASEAN-India Shaping the Post-2015 A... more Rumel Dahiya and Udai Bhanu Singh (eds), Delhi Dialogue VII : ASEAN-India Shaping the Post-2015 Agenda (New Delhi, Pentagon Press, 2015), Pages: xlvi + 204, Price: Rs. 995This useful volume from IDSA brings together the speeches, presentations and papers delivered at the Seventh Delhi Dialogue, devoted to the theme of "ASEAN-India: Shaping the Post-2015 Agenda", held in New Delhi on 11 and 12 March 2015. Apart from the obvious importance of the theme itself, Delhi Dialogue VII assumes added political significance on account of the increased salience and impetus, which the India-ASEAN ties have acquired under the NDA Government.Delhi Dialogue VII was preceded by the 12th India-ASEAN Summit and 9th East Asia Summit held at Nay Pyi Taw in Myanmar in November 2014, at which Prime Minister Narendra Modi had pledged to upgrade India's hitherto "Look East Policy" towards ASEAN to an "Act East Policy". In the past, such declarations have generally tended to remain at the level of rhetoric, with little or no follow-up action, virtually forgotten until the next scheduled meeting.This time, however, India's expressed interest in strengthening relations with the ASEAN region was followed by a flurry of heightened diplomatic activities. During the last six months, President Pranab Mukherjee has visited Vietnam and External Affairs Minister Shushma Swaraj has visited Myanmar, Singapore and Vietnam. In turn, there have been high-level visits to India from Vietnam and Singapore. India and ASEAN signed a long awaited Agreement on Trade in Services and Investments in September 2014. In January 2025, India established an independent Mission to ASEAN in Jakarta.At the same time, ASEAN itself is moving towards closer integration and cooperation on the basis of an ASEAN Community, to be established at the end of this year, as the principal instrument for realising the objectives of its ASEAN Community Vision 2025. How does India fit in this scenario and what are the perspectives and prospects for the future development of IndiaASEAN relations?The ASEAN was established in 1967 at the height of the Cold War. Beginning essentially as a bulwark and ideological counter-balance to the spread of communism in South East Asia, ASEAN has adjusted well to the changing realities of the international situation. It has co-opted former adversaries such as Vietnam, as well as economic back-waters such as Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, into the organisation. It has moved away from its earlier posture of suspicion and antagonism towards China and created institutionalised structures of co-operation with China as well as with Japan and South Korea, the other economic power-houses in Asia. The creation of ASEAN Plus Three in 1997 was a watershed for the organisation, marking the shift to an era of closer economic co-operation and better integration of the economies of ASEAN as well as the "Plus Three".The India-ASEAN relations got off to a slow start, largely because of the benign neglect, which characterised the approach of both sides in the years prior to the liberalisation of the Indian economy. India prioritised its linkages with the oil-exporting economies of West Asia and paid little attention to its Eastern neighbours beyond making the expected token references to the cultural and people-to-people links bequeathed by history. With the licensepermit Raj constraining the Indian economy to a 'Hindu rate of growth', the ASEAN exhibited little interest in strengthening trade and economic linkages with India.Relations moved on to a qualitative new track after the Indian reform process got under way in the early 1990s when Prime Minister Narasimha Rao initiated "Look East" as the policy paradigm to frame India's approach to ASEAN. India-ASEAN relations were progressively upgraded as India became a Sectoral Partner of ASEAN in 1992, a Dialogue Partner in 1996 and a Summit Level Partner at the Eighth ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh in 2002. …

Indian Foreign Affairs Journal, 2015

The security situation in West Asia has been continuously deteriorating ever since the onset of t... more The security situation in West Asia has been continuously deteriorating ever since the onset of the Arab Spring in December 2010. The internal security situation in Syria, Iraq and Yemen has gone from bad to worse. The regional powers continue to fight proxy wars on sectarian lines, pumping huge amount of money and weapons to bolster their favoured groups. The involvement of extra-regional players such as the USA and Russia in the internal conflicts in West Asia has further aggravated the situation.The prospect of the growth of democracy in the region in the immediate future has receded. Most regimes have been able to keep at bay, at least for the time being, the calls for change. The expectations from the Arab Spring have turned out to have been overambitious for a region where popular democracy was an oxymoron. The old order is reasserting itself and is trying to make things difficult for the fragile new order. The Arab Spring is now commonly referred to as Arab Winter, reflecting...

Strategic Year Book 2021, 2021

The founders of the republic decided to make Turkey a secular state, adopting French constitution... more The founders of the republic decided to make Turkey a secular state, adopting French constitutional principle of secularism. However, beginning from around 2007, the Turkish government no longer not hide its Islamist proclivities, domestically or internationally. It has openly embraced jihadis in Syria and has employed them in Libya and Azerbaijan; it supports terror-sponsoring states like Pakistan; and has deliberately soured relations with Israel. This article studies and comments upon contemporary Turkey where its desire to regain Ottoman glory has given rise to three challenges: Islamism, Militarism and Erdogan. These are giving it a destabilising image in the world.

Operation Golden Bird, conducted along the Indo-Myanmar border in the North-Eastern state of Mizo... more Operation Golden Bird, conducted along the Indo-Myanmar border in the North-Eastern state of Mizoram under the aegis of 57 Mountain Division (57 Mtn Div) in April–May 1995, has often been portrayed as a joint operation between the armed forces of India and Myanmar. In reality, however, this operation was planned and executed by the Indian Army alone.

DEBATE External Interventions and Internal Instability In West Asia: Implications For India

India should approach emerging situation in West Asia as one that provides an opportunity to play... more India should approach emerging situation in West Asia as one that provides an opportunity to play a more effective role in the shaping of the new architecture

The ASEAN-India partnership that has progressed over the last 23 years is destined to play a cruc... more The ASEAN-India partnership that has progressed over
the last 23 years is destined to play a crucial role in shaping ASEAN’s post-2015 agenda. ASEAN-India relations received momentum in the early 1990s with the introduction of India’s Look East policy, coinciding with India’s economic reforms. ASEAN, with a combined GDP of US$ 2.3 trillion (in 2013), a large
market of 630 million people, good connectivity, and free trade agreements
with major partners covers a dynamic region which exercises substantial
collective economic influence regionally and globally. In combination with India this constitutes a community of more than 1.8 billion people—nearly a quarter of the world’s population, and a combined GDP of about US$ 4 trillion.

'Sovereignty' and 'history' have a universal context in international politics. But in Beijing's ... more 'Sovereignty' and 'history' have a universal context in international politics. But in Beijing's strategic
foreign policy setting, the logic of 'sovereignty' and 'history' are employed or applied selectively.
This is clear in the context of its reservation on India's oil exploration in the South China Sea (SCS)
and its own plans to implement the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) through Pakistan-
Occupied Kashmir (POK) despite India's reservations. The strategic implications of these matters
are huge for India. India needs to understand the complexity behind both matters and discuss
them prudently with China. A clearly articulated perspective must be enunciated by India about
the questionable 'legality' of CPEC. India not only needs to ask China to desist from CPEC projects
in POK but also to clearly state that any Chinese activities in that region affects India's 'sovereignty'.
Besides, New Delhi must review its current approach towards POK and start asserting its claim
more intently than earlier.

The internal security situation in the North-eastern states of India is complex. It requires peop... more The internal security situation in the North-eastern states of India is complex. It requires people with in depth knowledge of the terrain, society, politics and culture and history of insurgency in the region to be placed in positions entrusted with the handling of affairs. Frequent change of interlocutors, for example between Naga groups and Government of India, would not be desirable since delicate negotiations require a great degree of trust between negotiators and that can only come about with longevity of engagement. The Government must focus on concluding final peace agreements with the groups that are part of the peace process as soon as possible so that all the energies could then be applied in tackling the groups that remain intransigent. India's Act East Policy could only be successful if we develop connectivity in the North-eastern states and permit greater people-to-people contact with the people of the ASEAN, and particularly with the people of Myanmar. Investments in the region are required for the economic advancement of the people. These would require the creation of a peaceful environment in the North-eastern states. Finally, instead of letting turf wars decide the outcome, Assam Rifles must continue to be responsible for guarding the India-Myanmar border.

This is a co-edited book of proceedings of Delhi Dialogue VI held in New Delhi

Each country’s desire to dominate the region and their embedded sense of insecurity has created c... more Each country’s desire to dominate the region and their embedded sense of insecurity has created conditions
which have raised the spectre of a major regional conflict. It would be useful to go some decades back to
analyse the trajectory of relations between Iran and Israel.

India simultaneously is entering a period of strategic opportunity but is also facing tremendous ... more India simultaneously is entering a period of strategic opportunity but is also
facing tremendous challenges that include terrorism and internal unrest, that
threaten its vital self interests such as a peaceful neighbourhood. It has to cope
with the prevailing uncertainty, the global shift in balance of power and
persistent external threats. More importantly, despite overall impressive
economic growth, the domestic threats and challenges have the potential of
hampering the rise of India. As it grows economically and gains greater
geopolitical heft it will be required to play a more proactive role on the world
stage. It is incumbent upon the leadership therefore to clearly articulate India’s
national vision, interests and objectives to the world and ensure a synergy in
all the instruments of our national power to achieve the desired ends.

Two years after the outbreak of the Arab revolutions, the trajectory and the outcome of the proce... more Two years after the outbreak of the Arab revolutions, the trajectory and the outcome of the process are still uncertain. Whereas the autocrats in Tunisia and Egypt were overthrown, the alternate mechanism has not really worked. As per the Failed State Index, published in the US, Egypt has moved up from 49th to 31st position and Tunisia from 118th to 94th position. It is almost as expected. In the shadow of despotic regimes, no political alternative could develop and take roots, as a result of which, the incoming regimes made some of the very same mistakes that the outgoing regimes had made. Fragmentation of state authority has taken place to some extent in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen. However, the good news is that there is a real agenda for democratization in the region and for the first time, elites are being put to test. Serious discussions on civil-military relations, the place of civil society organizations, transparency and the role of underground groups have all gained importance in the political arena. A complex process of adjustment will follow before the state authority is stabilized.

To many people Pakistan is a state beyond repair. Its institutions are weak and its Army literall... more To many people Pakistan is a state beyond repair. Its institutions are weak and its Army literally owns the state. But recent events give indications of a possible turnaround and a more stable future. India has very little leverages in shaping a peaceful, stable and friendly Pakistan but its own progress can make Pakistani society, fearful of being left behind, force a change in the state’s policy orientation

Whereas employing Armed Forces may appear to be an attractive idea in the face of inability of st... more Whereas employing Armed Forces may appear to be an attractive idea in the face of inability of state and central police forces and PMF to control the menace the adverse affects of long term commitment of Armed Forces particularly that on the Army, needs to be understood. Their involvement in anti-naxal operations will seriously effect their combat readiness to face external security challenges which we can ill afford. We need to develop other potent alternatives for which adequate scope exists.

Even the most optimist scenario for Pakistan in the short to medium term is bleak. In the long te... more Even the most optimist scenario for Pakistan in the short to medium term is bleak. In the long term, in any case Jihadis like Hafiz Saeed would like to see the government so weakened and the Army so exhausted that they can glide into the seat of power without much difficulty. Therefore, even the long term scenario for Pakistan is no better. Growing misery of the people and chaos created by the Jihadis has the potential to make the mainstream political parties irrelevant in the longer term unless they change their ways

Corruption involving Armed Forces personnel obviously and rightly attracts greater attention beca... more Corruption involving Armed Forces personnel obviously and rightly attracts greater attention because they are not expected to be indulging in it. It goes against a soldier’s ‘dharma’. One wanting to get rich has no reason to join the Armed Forces.