Sarmiza Pencea | IEM - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Sarmiza Pencea
Euroinfo, 2017
During the recent almost four decades, China has been one of the most important foreign direct in... more During the recent almost four decades, China has been one of the most important foreign direct investment (FDI) receivers in the world, managing to make the most of this input as a lever of its rapid economic advancement and integration into the world economy. Already one of the largest economic powers of the world, China has become, since 2015, both a net investment capital provider in the international market, and the second largest investor globally, after the USA. As Europe has recently become one of the preferred targets of Chinese investors, we intend, in this article, to highlight the dimensions of this phenomenon, its features, nascent trends, strategies that are being implemented and the reactions that they trigger in terms of new policies, on both sides.
Journal of Global Economics, Apr 1, 2012
In its first part, this paper looks at China's rapid economic transformation of the last more tha... more In its first part, this paper looks at China's rapid economic transformation of the last more than three decades, at its accelerated, never-met-in-history growth, and at the factors underneath: masive investments, both foreign and local, technology and managerial know-how transfers, related productivity rises, huge exports and, hopefully, increasingly larger future domestic comsumption. In its second part, the article highlights China's complex impact on world demand, supply and prices, resulting from its extensive development and from its new positioning in the world economy. Finally, the paper also looks at the negative externalities of China's unsustainable development, in terms of land, water and air pollution, speedier depletion of the natural resources of the planet and climate change, stressing upon the ideea that while the whole mankind is affected, the first to suffer are the Chinese themselves.
Revista OEconomica, 2012
Having generated not only growth performance, but also serious imbalances that make it unsustaina... more Having generated not only growth performance, but also serious imbalances that make it unsustainable in the future, “the Chinese model” has entered into a complex and profound adjustment process, designed to restore its vitality and sustainability, so that the Chinese economy doesn’t remain captive, like other developing economies, in the “average income trap”, but a developed economy.
Journal of Global Economics, 2016
Economia chineză a crescut consistent și accelerat timp de trei decenii fără să intre în vreo sit... more Economia chineză a crescut consistent și accelerat timp de trei decenii fără să intre în vreo situație de criză sau destabilizare gravă și fără să suporte vreo corecție, dar acest fapt nu înseamnă că ea a crescut sănătos și nici că a evitat definitiv corecția, ci dimpotrivă, poate însemna că această corecție este oricând probabilă, riscând să fie cu atât mai dură cu cât este mai tardivă. Performanțele multiple ale Chinei sunt incontestabile, dar chiar mecanismele care au susținut obținerea lorîn primul rând sistemul distorsionat al prețurilor (prețuri controlat mici ale forței de muncă, capitalului, energiei, pamântului, resurselor naturale, monedei naționale, prețuri zero pentru poluare etc.)-au devenit în prezent principala frână în calea dinamismului creșterii și modernizării economice. Excesiv forțată să crească accelerat, economia chineză a generat dezechilibre structurale și bule economice în aproape fiecare sistem al său. Lucrarea de față sintetizează și analizează câteva dintre cele mai periculoase bule economice și relația dintre ele, precum și dificultățile și riscurile associate trecerii economiei chineze de la dezvoltarea axată pe producție și export, la cea întemeiată pe consumul intern.
Journal of Global Economics, 2016
Global Economic Observer, 2021
IO: Productivity, 2015
Along just a few decades, China has undergone huge economic changes, managing an impressive catch... more Along just a few decades, China has undergone huge economic changes, managing an impressive catching-up drive. But although its past accomplishments are undeniably outstanding in terms of extensive development, the country has also accumulated multiple distortions and structural imbalances and it has now inevitably reached a crossroads, when a major qualitative switch is needed. Among other complex, simultaneous transitions, to further develop and reach “the Chinese dream†, Chinese economy must also transit from cheaply processing /assembling foreign-designed goods, using foreign-designed technologies and supplying foreign markets, to producing high quality, services-and-knowledge-intensive goods engineered in China, using locally-devised technologies and meeting, primarily, domestic demand. The paper looks at the efforts made and progress attained in recent years in terms of research and innovation development, sketching the Chinese academic and industrial R&D&I landscape and g...
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals), Dec 1, 2015
In Romania, a country of rich touristic heritage, the total contribution of tourism to the 2014 G... more In Romania, a country of rich touristic heritage, the total contribution of tourism to the 2014 GDP was 4.8% and, according to the country report published by the World Tourism and Travel Council (WTTC), this contribution is expected to rise to only 5.1% over the next decade. Obviously, for an emerging economy with a high touristic endowment this current condition cannot be satisfying. In this paper we intend to accomplish a specific analysis of the tourism market evolution after its EU accession. Our undertaking starts from two complementary questions: How did the Romanian tourism market develop, following the country's EU accession? Are there any tourism development gaps between the country's counties? Our research includes assessments of both the touristic demand and supply by counties and the municipality of Bucharest, as well as of the county groupings resulted from a cluster analysis using 6 indices (2 for demand, 2 for supply and 2 aggregate ones). The assumptions we start from are that a positive impact has been induced on Romania's tourism after its accession into the EU, but in terms of its regional development, major development gaps between counties still persist and even deepen.
Global Economic Observer, 2018
The general purpose of this paper is to appraise the post-accession evolution of the Romanian tou... more The general purpose of this paper is to appraise the post-accession evolution of the Romanian tourism market by looking at a range of relevant indicators that measure the touristic demand and supply, over the 2006- 2016 decade. The authors put forth an empirical analysis of the statistical data provided by the National Institute for Statistics and by the World Travel and Tourism Council, at both the national and regional levels, taking into account the eight development regions of the country. They devised a two-stage methodology, with a first stage dedicated to the empirical analysis of the indicators that measure tourism market from different angles and a second stage consisting in a cluster analysis meant to identify the potential narrowing or, on the contrary, deepening of the regional tourism market development gaps. They conclude that while the Romanian tourism industry underwent significant transformations after joining the EU, it did not manage to capitalize on the opportuni...
Global Economic Observer, 2020
Romanian Economic and Business Review, 2017
Since 2007, when for the first time in history the world urban population exceeded the number of ... more Since 2007, when for the first time in history the world urban population exceeded the number of rural inhabitants, humankind has become predominantly urban. Today, over 54% of Terra’s inhabitants are city dwellers and the world’s urbanization trend advances resolutely, with China among its main and most powerful drivers. As China’s urbanization is considered one of the two great, long-term processes that will crucially influence the development of mankind in the 21st century, along with the technological revolution led by the US, this paper aims at scrutinizing the peculiarities of this all-important process, focusing on its current weaknesses, imperfections and trends. It also looks at the planned urban development reform projects, identifying the challenges that are to be faced and the most probable prospects for China’s urbanization process
Social Science Research Network, Jul 17, 2016
<b>Romanian Abstract: </b>China se află într-un moment critic al dezvoltării sale eco... more <b>Romanian Abstract: </b>China se află într-un moment critic al dezvoltării sale economice, sociale, politice și a relațiilor internaționale, având, într-un timp foarte scurt, de schimbat modelul de dezvoltare, de restructurat profund economia și de atins numeroase obiective sociale. Într-o economie mondială aflată ea însăși în transformare, cu cerere globală și creștere economică letargice, aceste tranziții interne, complex întrețesute, se derulează sub presiunea timpului, a obligației de a menține stabilitatea economico-socială internă și de a nu provoca perturbări externe majore. Lucrarea de față analizează parametrii macroeconomici majori ai parcursului acestei țări în anul 2015 și prognozele pentru pentru 2016-2020 <b>English Abstract: </b>China undergoes a critical moment in terms of its economic, social, political and international relations development, having to change its development model, to deeply restructure its economy and to meet many social goals in a short time lapse. In a world economy which is also changing itself, with feeble global demand and economic growth, these internal, intricately woven transitions unreel under time pressure, under the imperatives of preserving socio-economic stability domestically and of not generating major external turmoil. This paper looks at the major macroeconomic metrics of this country’s path during 2015 and at its 2016-2017 outlook.
Journal of Global Economics, 2021
Journal of Global Economics, 2015
Bull markets, bear markets, boom and bust, speculative bubbles are frequent phenomena with stock ... more Bull markets, bear markets, boom and bust, speculative bubbles are frequent phenomena with stock markets. All the more so with imature stock exchanges such as China’s, where unwary investors, lured by the prospect of quick and easy gains, trade instinctively, in accordance with the prevailing market sentiment, so that the ups and downs in securities values may be ample, unexpected and dangerous. Besides, the repeated interventions of a government which aims at tightly controlling the functioning of such markets may generate abrupt responses, which risk to get out of hand. Such an episode took place in June-July 2015, when, following 12 months of exuberant growth, Chinese stock markets, which were already in a bubble, started a sudden descent, generating panic among investors, thrills and worry amid foreign analysts. This paper radiographs this episode, looking at its causes and at the risks entailed for both the domestic and foreign markets, trying to explain the seemingly unjusti...
Knowledge Horizons - Economics, 2013
The main objective of the present paper is to identify the most relevant features and development... more The main objective of the present paper is to identify the most relevant features and developments of the trade in goods between Romania and China between 2000 and 2012, drawing upon the statistical data provided by the Romanian Ministry of Economy and the National Institute of Statistics. The result of our analysis shows that, although the Romanian and Chinese economies reveal complementarities able to generate considerable opportunities for trade, the bilateral trade relations could not be developed yet to their full potential. The Chinese-Romanian trade in goods kept rising during the last decade, reaching a record high in 2011 in spite of the economic crisis, but its overall level remains low. Exports and imports are still unbalanced and goods are often channeled through intermediary countries because direct connections between Romanian and Chinese companies are still poor. Also, the trade structure had an unfavorable evolution from Romania’s standpoint. Nevertheless, the outloo...
Romanian Economic and Business Review, 2017
India and China in Asia, 2019
Global Economic Observer, 2018
Connectivity is definitely a prerequisite of economic development and China has known and experie... more Connectivity is definitely a prerequisite of economic development and China has known and experienced that for millennia. To get rich, this country focussed on developing domestic infrastructure and it now goes further on, committing itself to building infrastructure networks at intercontinental level, under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Naturally, China’s proposition to the other countries has embeded its national interests - which is perfectly acceptable up to a certain level – but, in practice, the Chinese companies’ actions have pushed their own interests much further, up to the point where their partners have come to the conclusion that the win-win promise of Chinese officials means nothing more than „China wins twice”, while for them, China-financed and implemented projects might rather equate with losses and risks. This paper looks at these issues, focussing on what’s wrong and trying to envision the way forward (what’s next).
Euroinfo, 2017
During the recent almost four decades, China has been one of the most important foreign direct in... more During the recent almost four decades, China has been one of the most important foreign direct investment (FDI) receivers in the world, managing to make the most of this input as a lever of its rapid economic advancement and integration into the world economy. Already one of the largest economic powers of the world, China has become, since 2015, both a net investment capital provider in the international market, and the second largest investor globally, after the USA. As Europe has recently become one of the preferred targets of Chinese investors, we intend, in this article, to highlight the dimensions of this phenomenon, its features, nascent trends, strategies that are being implemented and the reactions that they trigger in terms of new policies, on both sides.
Journal of Global Economics, Apr 1, 2012
In its first part, this paper looks at China's rapid economic transformation of the last more tha... more In its first part, this paper looks at China's rapid economic transformation of the last more than three decades, at its accelerated, never-met-in-history growth, and at the factors underneath: masive investments, both foreign and local, technology and managerial know-how transfers, related productivity rises, huge exports and, hopefully, increasingly larger future domestic comsumption. In its second part, the article highlights China's complex impact on world demand, supply and prices, resulting from its extensive development and from its new positioning in the world economy. Finally, the paper also looks at the negative externalities of China's unsustainable development, in terms of land, water and air pollution, speedier depletion of the natural resources of the planet and climate change, stressing upon the ideea that while the whole mankind is affected, the first to suffer are the Chinese themselves.
Revista OEconomica, 2012
Having generated not only growth performance, but also serious imbalances that make it unsustaina... more Having generated not only growth performance, but also serious imbalances that make it unsustainable in the future, “the Chinese model” has entered into a complex and profound adjustment process, designed to restore its vitality and sustainability, so that the Chinese economy doesn’t remain captive, like other developing economies, in the “average income trap”, but a developed economy.
Journal of Global Economics, 2016
Economia chineză a crescut consistent și accelerat timp de trei decenii fără să intre în vreo sit... more Economia chineză a crescut consistent și accelerat timp de trei decenii fără să intre în vreo situație de criză sau destabilizare gravă și fără să suporte vreo corecție, dar acest fapt nu înseamnă că ea a crescut sănătos și nici că a evitat definitiv corecția, ci dimpotrivă, poate însemna că această corecție este oricând probabilă, riscând să fie cu atât mai dură cu cât este mai tardivă. Performanțele multiple ale Chinei sunt incontestabile, dar chiar mecanismele care au susținut obținerea lorîn primul rând sistemul distorsionat al prețurilor (prețuri controlat mici ale forței de muncă, capitalului, energiei, pamântului, resurselor naturale, monedei naționale, prețuri zero pentru poluare etc.)-au devenit în prezent principala frână în calea dinamismului creșterii și modernizării economice. Excesiv forțată să crească accelerat, economia chineză a generat dezechilibre structurale și bule economice în aproape fiecare sistem al său. Lucrarea de față sintetizează și analizează câteva dintre cele mai periculoase bule economice și relația dintre ele, precum și dificultățile și riscurile associate trecerii economiei chineze de la dezvoltarea axată pe producție și export, la cea întemeiată pe consumul intern.
Journal of Global Economics, 2016
Global Economic Observer, 2021
IO: Productivity, 2015
Along just a few decades, China has undergone huge economic changes, managing an impressive catch... more Along just a few decades, China has undergone huge economic changes, managing an impressive catching-up drive. But although its past accomplishments are undeniably outstanding in terms of extensive development, the country has also accumulated multiple distortions and structural imbalances and it has now inevitably reached a crossroads, when a major qualitative switch is needed. Among other complex, simultaneous transitions, to further develop and reach “the Chinese dream†, Chinese economy must also transit from cheaply processing /assembling foreign-designed goods, using foreign-designed technologies and supplying foreign markets, to producing high quality, services-and-knowledge-intensive goods engineered in China, using locally-devised technologies and meeting, primarily, domestic demand. The paper looks at the efforts made and progress attained in recent years in terms of research and innovation development, sketching the Chinese academic and industrial R&D&I landscape and g...
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals), Dec 1, 2015
In Romania, a country of rich touristic heritage, the total contribution of tourism to the 2014 G... more In Romania, a country of rich touristic heritage, the total contribution of tourism to the 2014 GDP was 4.8% and, according to the country report published by the World Tourism and Travel Council (WTTC), this contribution is expected to rise to only 5.1% over the next decade. Obviously, for an emerging economy with a high touristic endowment this current condition cannot be satisfying. In this paper we intend to accomplish a specific analysis of the tourism market evolution after its EU accession. Our undertaking starts from two complementary questions: How did the Romanian tourism market develop, following the country's EU accession? Are there any tourism development gaps between the country's counties? Our research includes assessments of both the touristic demand and supply by counties and the municipality of Bucharest, as well as of the county groupings resulted from a cluster analysis using 6 indices (2 for demand, 2 for supply and 2 aggregate ones). The assumptions we start from are that a positive impact has been induced on Romania's tourism after its accession into the EU, but in terms of its regional development, major development gaps between counties still persist and even deepen.
Global Economic Observer, 2018
The general purpose of this paper is to appraise the post-accession evolution of the Romanian tou... more The general purpose of this paper is to appraise the post-accession evolution of the Romanian tourism market by looking at a range of relevant indicators that measure the touristic demand and supply, over the 2006- 2016 decade. The authors put forth an empirical analysis of the statistical data provided by the National Institute for Statistics and by the World Travel and Tourism Council, at both the national and regional levels, taking into account the eight development regions of the country. They devised a two-stage methodology, with a first stage dedicated to the empirical analysis of the indicators that measure tourism market from different angles and a second stage consisting in a cluster analysis meant to identify the potential narrowing or, on the contrary, deepening of the regional tourism market development gaps. They conclude that while the Romanian tourism industry underwent significant transformations after joining the EU, it did not manage to capitalize on the opportuni...
Global Economic Observer, 2020
Romanian Economic and Business Review, 2017
Since 2007, when for the first time in history the world urban population exceeded the number of ... more Since 2007, when for the first time in history the world urban population exceeded the number of rural inhabitants, humankind has become predominantly urban. Today, over 54% of Terra’s inhabitants are city dwellers and the world’s urbanization trend advances resolutely, with China among its main and most powerful drivers. As China’s urbanization is considered one of the two great, long-term processes that will crucially influence the development of mankind in the 21st century, along with the technological revolution led by the US, this paper aims at scrutinizing the peculiarities of this all-important process, focusing on its current weaknesses, imperfections and trends. It also looks at the planned urban development reform projects, identifying the challenges that are to be faced and the most probable prospects for China’s urbanization process
Social Science Research Network, Jul 17, 2016
<b>Romanian Abstract: </b>China se află într-un moment critic al dezvoltării sale eco... more <b>Romanian Abstract: </b>China se află într-un moment critic al dezvoltării sale economice, sociale, politice și a relațiilor internaționale, având, într-un timp foarte scurt, de schimbat modelul de dezvoltare, de restructurat profund economia și de atins numeroase obiective sociale. Într-o economie mondială aflată ea însăși în transformare, cu cerere globală și creștere economică letargice, aceste tranziții interne, complex întrețesute, se derulează sub presiunea timpului, a obligației de a menține stabilitatea economico-socială internă și de a nu provoca perturbări externe majore. Lucrarea de față analizează parametrii macroeconomici majori ai parcursului acestei țări în anul 2015 și prognozele pentru pentru 2016-2020 <b>English Abstract: </b>China undergoes a critical moment in terms of its economic, social, political and international relations development, having to change its development model, to deeply restructure its economy and to meet many social goals in a short time lapse. In a world economy which is also changing itself, with feeble global demand and economic growth, these internal, intricately woven transitions unreel under time pressure, under the imperatives of preserving socio-economic stability domestically and of not generating major external turmoil. This paper looks at the major macroeconomic metrics of this country’s path during 2015 and at its 2016-2017 outlook.
Journal of Global Economics, 2021
Journal of Global Economics, 2015
Bull markets, bear markets, boom and bust, speculative bubbles are frequent phenomena with stock ... more Bull markets, bear markets, boom and bust, speculative bubbles are frequent phenomena with stock markets. All the more so with imature stock exchanges such as China’s, where unwary investors, lured by the prospect of quick and easy gains, trade instinctively, in accordance with the prevailing market sentiment, so that the ups and downs in securities values may be ample, unexpected and dangerous. Besides, the repeated interventions of a government which aims at tightly controlling the functioning of such markets may generate abrupt responses, which risk to get out of hand. Such an episode took place in June-July 2015, when, following 12 months of exuberant growth, Chinese stock markets, which were already in a bubble, started a sudden descent, generating panic among investors, thrills and worry amid foreign analysts. This paper radiographs this episode, looking at its causes and at the risks entailed for both the domestic and foreign markets, trying to explain the seemingly unjusti...
Knowledge Horizons - Economics, 2013
The main objective of the present paper is to identify the most relevant features and development... more The main objective of the present paper is to identify the most relevant features and developments of the trade in goods between Romania and China between 2000 and 2012, drawing upon the statistical data provided by the Romanian Ministry of Economy and the National Institute of Statistics. The result of our analysis shows that, although the Romanian and Chinese economies reveal complementarities able to generate considerable opportunities for trade, the bilateral trade relations could not be developed yet to their full potential. The Chinese-Romanian trade in goods kept rising during the last decade, reaching a record high in 2011 in spite of the economic crisis, but its overall level remains low. Exports and imports are still unbalanced and goods are often channeled through intermediary countries because direct connections between Romanian and Chinese companies are still poor. Also, the trade structure had an unfavorable evolution from Romania’s standpoint. Nevertheless, the outloo...
Romanian Economic and Business Review, 2017
India and China in Asia, 2019
Global Economic Observer, 2018
Connectivity is definitely a prerequisite of economic development and China has known and experie... more Connectivity is definitely a prerequisite of economic development and China has known and experienced that for millennia. To get rich, this country focussed on developing domestic infrastructure and it now goes further on, committing itself to building infrastructure networks at intercontinental level, under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Naturally, China’s proposition to the other countries has embeded its national interests - which is perfectly acceptable up to a certain level – but, in practice, the Chinese companies’ actions have pushed their own interests much further, up to the point where their partners have come to the conclusion that the win-win promise of Chinese officials means nothing more than „China wins twice”, while for them, China-financed and implemented projects might rather equate with losses and risks. This paper looks at these issues, focussing on what’s wrong and trying to envision the way forward (what’s next).