Pekka Lauri | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (original) (raw)

Papers by Pekka Lauri

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), Jul 21, 2023

Nature Communications

Plant-based animal product alternatives are increasingly promoted to achieve more sustainable die... more Plant-based animal product alternatives are increasingly promoted to achieve more sustainable diets. Here, we use a global economic land use model to assess the food system-wide impacts of a global dietary shift towards these alternatives. We find a substantial reduction in the global environmental impacts by 2050 if globally 50% of the main animal products (pork, chicken, beef and milk) are substituted—net reduction of forest and natural land is almost fully halted and agriculture and land use GHG emissions decline by 31% in 2050 compared to 2020. If spared agricultural land within forest ecosystems is restored to forest, climate benefits could double, reaching 92% of the previously estimated land sector mitigation potential. Furthermore, the restored area could contribute to 13-25% of the estimated global land restoration needs under target 2 from the Kunming Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by 2030, and future declines in ecosystem integrity by 2050 would be more than halve...

Environmental Science & Technology, Jan 27, 2023

Global Environmental Change

The 2nd International Electronic Conference on Forests—Sustainable Forests: Ecology, Management, Products and Trade

This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative... more This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY

Woody biomass will be an important source of energy in the future when the reserves of fossil fue... more Woody biomass will be an important source of energy in the future when the reserves of fossil fuels shrink and the costs of using fossil fuels increase due to climate change mitigation. In 2000 approximately 2.5 Gm3/yr (21 EJ/yr) woody biomass was used for energy, which consisted of 1.7 Gm3/yr (15 EJ/yr) household fuelwood and 0.8 Gm3/yr (6 EJ/yr) energy wood. This was about 5% of primary energy and 40% of renewable primary energy consumption in the world.

This paper considers the effects of CO2 emission trading system on the substitution between coal ... more This paper considers the effects of CO2 emission trading system on the substitution between coal and energy wood in the large scale heat and power production in Europe. We use a technology-based approach where the substitution between coal and wood takes place through switch from one technology to another over time. The analysis is conducted with the EUFASOM (European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). Our results suggest that the CO2 emission trading system gives incentives for heat and power plants to increase energy wood demand in the limits of energy wood potential.

Forest Policy and Economics, 2017

Glossary Anaerobic digestion Anaerobic digestion is a biological process making it possible to de... more Glossary Anaerobic digestion Anaerobic digestion is a biological process making it possible to degrade organic matter, in absence of oxygen, by producing biogas and sludge. The organic matter is degraded partially by the combined action of several types of microorganisms. Bioenergy Energy produced from biomass sources excluding biofuels. Biofuels Transportation fuels made from biomass; such as biodiesel, bioethanol and biogas. First-generation biofuels refer to fuels derived from food crops, such as grains, sugar beet and oil seeds. They are relatively easy to manufacture, and thus the main type of biofuels produced today. Second-generation, or advanced, biofuels are produced from non-food biomass such as ligno-cellulosic materials or biogenic waste. They are considered superior to first-generation biofuels especially in terms of their social and environmental impact; however, their production is much more complicated and commercial production methods are still under development. Biogenic waste According to Article 3(4) of the Waste Framework Directive (2008/98/CE), biogenic waste is 'biodegradable garden and park waste, food and kitchen waste from households, restaurants, caterers and retail premises and comparable waste from food processing plants.' Biomass "Biodegradable fraction of products, waste and residues from biological origin from agriculture (including vegetal and animal substances), forestry and related industries including fisheries and aquaculture, as well as the biodegradable fraction of industrial and municipal waste". (Renewable Energy Directive (article 2). Bio-oil Also known as pyrolysis oil is a liquid produced from pyrolysis. It has a calorific value of 17.5 MJ/kg and an energy density of 20-30 GJ/m3. Bio-oil can be combusted for power in boiler, stationary engines and turbines, or upgraded for transport fuel. Black liquor Black liquor is the spent cooking liquor produced from the kraft process when digesting pulpwood into paper pulp. Lignin, hemicelluloses and other substances are removed from the wood to free the cellulose fibres. The pulp industry derives a significant share its bioenergy in the form of black liquor. Chemical pulp Sulphate (kraft) and soda and sulphite wood pulp except dissolving grades, bleached, semi-bleached and unbleached. (FAOSTAT) CHP Combined Heat and Power production Co-firing Co-firing is a primary application of combusting industrial wood pellets aside with pulverized coal in older coal power plants. Typically co-firing enables 5-15% mixture of wood pellets combusted with coal in order to minimize investment costs, process Study on Impacts on Resource Efficiency of Future Demand for Bioenergy-Task 3 January 2016 5 modification and, most of all, overall process efficiency. However, with equipment modernization 40% share of wood pellets is possible. Composting Composting is a process by which organic matter is degraded by a microbial population consisting of bacteria and fungi consuming oxygen and producing CO2, water, compost or humus and heat (exothermic). CSR Corporate Social Responsibility EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Food waste According to the proposal for a Directive amending the Waste Framework Directive, food waste is 'food including inedible parts from the food supply chain, not including food diverted to material uses such as bio-based products, animal feed or sent for redistribution.' Forest The FAO FRA definition is used when classifying land as forest, not including land that has trees on it but is predominantly under agricultural or urban land use (FAO 2012 1). Protected forests (as defined by WDPA Consortium 2004 2) are excluded from the analysis and no conversion or use of protected forest is allowed. Forest that is not protected is considered as forests available for wood supply. Forests include natural and semi-natural forests, as well as forest plantations. Forest-based industries Industries using wood, paper or recovered paper and wood as their main raw material. These include manufacturers of sawnwood, wood-based panels and other wooden products, pulp and paper, as well as the packaging and printing industries. Forest chips Forest chips are fresh wood chips made directly of wood that is harvested from the forest, used for energy production, and has not had any previous use (as opposed to wood chips from industrial by-products). There are several raw material types of forest chips:  Tops and branches removed from trees during final felling  Sawlogs that are rejected being unsuitable for material purposes due to decay etc.  Delimbed small size stems or un-delimbed small-size trees from thinnings  Pulpwood size logs allocated to energy production from thinning or final felling  Tree stumps.

Environmental Research Letters

Journal of Forest Economics

In this study, we investigate the effects of climate change mitigation and socioeconomic developm... more In this study, we investigate the effects of climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development on global forest resources use. The analysis is based on the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), which is a recursive dynamic land-use model. Climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development are included in the model as exogenous parameters taken from the SSP-RCP scenarios, which separate between the shared socioeconomic pathways("SSPs") and the representative concentration pathways ("RCPs"). The effect of SSP-RCP scenarios is restricted to factors that are quantitatively documented in the SSP database (economic growth, population growth, bioenergy demand, and carbon prices). Our results indicate that both climate change mitigation and socioeconomic development may increase harvest volumes and harvested area considerably in the future. This happens because there are no opportunity costs of using forest area for harvesting in the model. We show that such opportunity costs can be added in the model by considering carbon storage changes between forest types and carbon payments on them. These payments increases woody biomass prices and make woody biomass harvesting for modern bioenergy less profitable mitigation option relative to carbon sequestration in the standing forests. However, the payments do not have much impact on the profitability of

Climatic Change

In the twenty-first century, modern bioenergy could become one of the largest sources of energy, ... more In the twenty-first century, modern bioenergy could become one of the largest sources of energy, partially replacing fossil fuels and contributing to climate change mitigation. Agricultural and forestry biomass residues form an inexpensive bioenergy feedstock with low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, if harvested sustainably. We analysed quantities of biomass residues supplied for energy and their sensitivities in harmonised bioenergy demand scenarios across eight integrated assessment models (IAMs) and compared them with literature-estimated residue availability. IAM results vary substantially, at both global and regional scales, but suggest that residues could meet 7–50% of bioenergy demand towards 2050, and 2–30% towards 2100, in a scenario with 300 EJ/year of exogenous bioenergy demand towards 2100. When considering mean literature-estimated availability, residues could provide around 55 EJ/year by 2050. Inter-model differences primarily arise from model structure, assumptions, a...

Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 2015

У дослідженні представлено розроблення моделі оптимізації лісокористування на основі лінійного пр... more У дослідженні представлено розроблення моделі оптимізації лісокористування на основі лінійного програмування, яка може бути легко інтегрована у складні динамічні рекурсивні моделі і яка містить інструменти, що забезпечують врахування майбутнього стану лісу під час поточної заготівлі деревини за наявності рекурсивних обмежень. Представлено загальну структуру і алгоритм моделювання. Проведено порівняння результатів двох лісових моделей та визначено основні шляхи подальшого вдосконалення розробленої моделі лісокористування Ключові слова: лісокористування, лінійне програмування, рубки, вікова структура, вартість лісу, модель лісокористування, динамічна рекурсивна модель В исследовании представлена разработка модели оптимизации лесопользования на основе линейного программирования, которая может быть легко интегрирована в сложные динамические рекурсивные модели и которая содержит инструменты, обеспечивающие учет будущего состояния леса во время текущей заготовки древесины при наличии рекурсивных ограничений. Представлена общая структура и алгоритм моделирования. Проведено сравнение результатов двух моделей леса и определены основные пути дальнейшего совершенствования разработанной модели лесопользования Ключевые слова: лесопользование, линейное программирование, рубки, возрастная структура, стоимость леса, модель лесопользования, динамическая рекурсивная модель UDC 004.94+630

Energy Policy, 2014

ABSTRACT From a biophysical perspective, woody biomass resources are large enough to cover a subs... more ABSTRACT From a biophysical perspective, woody biomass resources are large enough to cover a substantial share of the world&#39;s primary energy consumption in 2050. However, these resources have alternative uses and their accessibility is limited, which tends to decrease their competitiveness with respect to other forms of energy. Hence, the key question of woody biomass use for energy is not the amount of resources, but rather their price. In this study we consider the question from the perspective of energy wood supply curves, which display the available amount of woody biomass for large-scale energy production at various hypothetical energy wood prices. These curves are estimated by the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), which is a global partial equilibrium model of forest and agricultural sectors. The global energy wood supply is estimated to be 0–23 Gm3/year (0–165 EJ/year) when energy wood prices vary in a range of 0–30$/GJ (0–216$/m3). If we add household fuelwood to energy wood, then woody biomass could satisfy 2–18% of world primary energy consumption in 2050. If primary forests are excluded from wood supply then the potential decreases up to 25%.