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Papers by Matthew Winters

Reliance on revenues from resource exports is common in post-conflict countries when other sector... more Reliance on revenues from resource exports is common in post-conflict countries when other sectors of the economy have collapsed. But over time, many resourcerich countries underperform in the areas of economic growth and development compared to countries with fewer resources—a phenomenon referred to as the “resource curse” or “paradox of plenty.” Moreover, in Liberia, Cambodia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), high-value resources have also fueled conflict by providing a source of financing for armed groups, and by magnifying income inequality among groups or regions.

Global Governance: A Review of Multilateralism and International Organizations, 2011

Journal of Politcs in Latin America, 2015

In long-standing democracies, the partisan attachments of most citizens are stable and not respon... more In long-standing democracies, the partisan attachments of most citizens are stable and not responsive to short-term political events. Recent studies from younger democracies, however, suggest that partisanship may be more malleable in these contexts. In this paper, we develop hypotheses about how political corruption might affect voter attachment to the party of corrupt officials or to the party system as a whole. Using data from an original survey experiment in Brazil, we show that, for highly educated respondents, prompts about political corruption shift patterns of partisan attachment. For the highly educated, corruption associated with one political party reduces nonpartisanship and significantly increases identification with other political parties. For less-educated respondents, information on corruption has no consistent measureable effect on partisanship. We conclude by discussing the implications of malleable partisanship for democratic accountability.

The Review of International Organizations

Foreign aid flows result from agreements reached between states that need resources and other sta... more Foreign aid flows result from agreements reached between states that need resources and other states or international organizations that can provide those resources. Recent literature has argued that different international development organizations bargain with aid-receiving states in particular ways. Specifically , some authors argue that non-egalitarian international development organizations seek to secure more gains when bargaining with economically weak states. Global Environment Facility projects are negotiated by the international agency that will implement the project, allowing us to examine this claim in the context of a set of similar development projects. Correcting and reanalyzing an existing dataset describing the composition of financing in GEF projects, we find no evidence that the financing terms provided by different GEF implementing agencies varies by the type of organization. Both egalitarian and non-egalitarian agencies provide more external funding to poorer countries. We replicate this result using data from development projects financed by the World Bank, the archetypal non-egalitarian international organization. We discuss how our results are consistent with organizational behavior that originates in the interests of an international bureaucracy oriented toward poverty alleviation.

Abstract: Resource-based explanations of protest participation examine the way in which individua... more Abstract: Resource-based explanations of protest participation examine the way in which individual characteristics predict whether or not a particular person will engage in protest activity. This paper examines variation in these predictors over space and time, using data from the first four waves of the World Values Survey. After identifying the magnitude and statistical significance of sociodemographic predictors for each country-year in the data, I make a first cut at explaining what causes the importance of these predictors to vary ...

Abstract: In this article, I review the World Bank&#x27;s response to the global financia... more Abstract: In this article, I review the World Bank&#x27;s response to the global financial crisis that began in the fall of 2008. I show that the World Bank significantly increased lending after the crisis began. The majority of this new lending went to middle-income countries rather than to the poorest countries of the world. At first glance, this might seem like the Bank was in dereliction of its duty to help the poorest countries, but in reality, addressing the credit constraint problems of middle-income countries was perhaps the most appropriate pattern ...

Abstract: In observational data, access to information is associated with lower levels of corrupt... more Abstract: In observational data, access to information is associated with lower levels of corruption. This chapter reviews a small but growing body of work that uses field experiments to explore the mechanisms behind this relationship. We present a typology for understanding this research based on the type of corruption being addressed (political vs. bureaucratic), the mechanism for accountability (retrospective vs. prospective), and the nature of the information provided (factual vs. prescriptive). We describe some of the ...

UMI, ProQuest ® Dissertations & Theses. The world's most comprehensive collectio... more UMI, ProQuest ® Dissertations & Theses. The world's most comprehensive collection of dissertations and theses. Learn more... ProQuest, The impact of domestic political constraints on World Bank project lending. by Winters, Matthew ...

International Studies Review, 2014

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Abstract: Previous research has demonstrated that the link between social capital and government ... more Abstract: Previous research has demonstrated that the link between social capital and government performance is about the policy responsiveness of government. I argue that social capital helps communities overcome collective action problems related to lobbying such that they can better express their desires for certain public goods and services to the government. Using data from a development project in Indonesia, I show that, in general, communities with more social capital are more likely to be selected as project participants ...

Popular wisdom often portrays developing countries as relatively helpless when dealing with power... more Popular wisdom often portrays developing countries as relatively helpless when dealing with powerful international financial institutions, and the academic literature on aid allocation has employed a similar donor-driven model to explain flows of foreign assistance. In reality, however, foreign aid projects are outcomes negotiated by borrowing states and international donors. One key outcome of these negotiations is the distribution of costs between the donor and the state for a given development intervention. We provide a theoretical perspective on the bargaining between international aid agencies and aid-receiving states to explain variation in these counterpart commitments. We argue that staff incentives within international donor agencies will lead to loan agreements with smaller counterpart commitments for poorer and better governed countries and with larger counterpart commitments for countries with more external debt, more outstanding loans to the donor and fewer outside borrowing options. An original dataset of counterpart commitments across a sample of 1,565 World Bank investment projects from the 2000s reveals a continuum of financing arrangements that vary with key factors identified by our bargaining model. In addition, we observe a significant number of World Bank projects that are recipient-driven projects in which the Bank plays only a minor financing role and also a shift in the relevant predictors of counterpart commitments following a 2004 policy change at the World Bank.

Abstract will be provided by author.

The Review of International Organizations, 2014

Page 1. 1 Splitting the Check: Counterpart Commitments in World Bank Projects Matthew S. Winters ... more Page 1. 1 Splitting the Check: Counterpart Commitments in World Bank Projects Matthew S. Winters University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign mwinters@illinois.edu Jaclyn D. Streitfeld University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign jstreit2@illinois.edu September 2011 ...

Global Governance: A Review of Multilateralism and International Organizations, 2011

Journal of Politcs in Latin America, 2015

The Review of International Organizations

International Studies Review, 2014

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Abstract will be provided by author.

The Review of International Organizations, 2014

p.m. In Person iTV / Poli Sci U: Survey Experiments Course Description Given decreased costs of c... more p.m. In Person iTV / Poli Sci U: Survey Experiments Course Description Given decreased costs of collecting survey data and the desire to make causal inferences in political science research, survey experiments have become widespread in political science. Focusing primarily on vignette-based survey experiments, this course (1) reviews the methodological logic behind survey experiments; (2) exposes students to prominent examples in the literature; (3) explores questions of internal and external validity; and (4) examines recent advances in survey experiment design and analysis. Course Goals Through engagement with the readings, course lectures, and in-class discussion and through completion of the assignments in this course, students will improve their capacities for (1) critically reading research that uses (survey) experimental methodologies; (2) discussing (survey) experimental research in professional settings; and (3) developing experimental (and non-experimental) research. At the end of the course, students will have developed, in consultation with their peers and the instructor, their own research design using survey experimental methods for a substantive question of interest to them. Course Requirements Students are expected to come to class prepared having done the required readings for the week and to engage in class conversation.

The primary goal of the course is to guide students to completion of a substantial research propo... more The primary goal of the course is to guide students to completion of a substantial research proposal that will then structure work on and become part of the final senior honors thesis, which is completed during the spring semester under the guidance of a faculty adviser. In order to facilitate production of the research proposal, the course provides an advanced overview of issues in political science research design, especially the identification of research questions and the selection of research strategies appropriate for a senior thesis.

Political Science 522 begins with the premise that good question, good theory, good research desi... more Political Science 522 begins with the premise that good question, good theory, good research design, and good writing go hand-in-hand. No design will overcome a muddled question, nor will a poorly planned or executed design suffice to answer a clearly stated question. In the absence of carefully-articulated theory, the researcher stands a good chance of looking for answers in the wrong places. In the presence of poor writing, not much else matters. Political Science 522 thus focuses on the question-theory-designwriting connections, probably more than many research design courses do.

This seminar examines theoretical and empirical work about the interactions between politics and ... more This seminar examines theoretical and empirical work about the interactions between politics and markets. The course studies both how economic performance affects politics and how variation in political institutions and patterns of political behavior shapes economic outcomes. We will interact with related literatures on democratization, elections, interest groups, and globalization.

This seminar provides an intensive study of the literature on foreign aid, drawing mostly from po... more This seminar provides an intensive study of the literature on foreign aid, drawing mostly from political science and economics and to a lesser extent from the broader domain of development studies. The course has been structured with the goal of improving our understanding of the quantitative analytical methods used in analyzing foreign aid allocation and effectiveness. It therefore includes a number of methodological readings to help us diagnose the challenges and pitfalls of the empirical literature that we will read. This focus on empirical methodology is expected to help students in international relations and comparative politics make better research design decisions when dealing with time-series crosssectional data. By the conclusion of the course, students should have a better understanding of claims that are made in the literature about (1) the reasons for foreign aid; (2) the development effectiveness of foreign aid; (3) the way in which foreign aid donors allocate aid and make project design decisions; (4) the differences between bilateral and multilateral aid; (5) bureaucratic pathologies that affect the development industry; and (6) the unintended consequences of foreign aid, among other topics. Students also should have a greater familiarity with the available foreign aid data and its strengths and weaknesses.

This seminar explores the diverse literature on corruption found in political science and economi... more This seminar explores the diverse literature on corruption found in political science and economics. The core questions found in this literature include (1) What is corruption? (2) How do we measure corruption? (3) What are the economic consequences of corruption? (4) In what types of countries is corruption more or less likely? (5) What types of institutions enable or hinder corruption? (6) How do voters react to information about corruption? and What types of anti-corruption policies are most effective?

This seminar is the second in a two-course sequence aiming to introduce students to some of the c... more This seminar is the second in a two-course sequence aiming to introduce students to some of the central concepts, arguments, and debates in the field of comparative politics. By providing foundational training in the subfield, the two-course sequence prepares students to take the comparative politics preliminary examination. The material covered in the course also should be of use to students preparing for other qualifying examinations in political science.

Improve ability to understand the structure and varieties of empirical research Understand the wa... more Improve ability to understand the structure and varieties of empirical research Understand the way that large-N datasets are structured Gain exposure to and understanding of linear regression and the meaning of statistical significance Improve ability to interpret graphically-presented data Develop critical abilities with regard to the linkage between theory and empirical evidence Develop critical abilities with regard to the structure of empirical research

Course Description This class uses Southeast Asia as a laboratory in which to examine political s... more Course Description This class uses Southeast Asia as a laboratory in which to examine political science theories about state formation, democratic transition and consolidation, economic development, nationalism, and civil conflict. The diversities across and within the countries of Southeast Asia allow for revelations through the comparative method about the way in which politics operates and produces particular social and economic outcomes. By learning about the political systems, history and social and economic patterns of Southeast Asia, students will learn more generally about the way that governments, political actors and societies operate around the world.

Since the conclusion of World War II, the world has been concerned with the idea of "development,... more Since the conclusion of World War II, the world has been concerned with the idea of "development," and in the past 30 years, discussions of development have increasingly entered into the public sphere. Celebrities have taken up the mantle of development, calling for debt relief and increased foreign aid and personally involving themselves in particular development projects. Public intellectuals like William Easterly and Jeffrey Sachs have debated in the popular media the usefulness of foreign aid and specific modalities of assistance. external sources, you are required to cite them. When in doubt about whether a citation is necessary or not, provide a citation. As described in the University of Illinois Student Code, consequences for plagiarism or other forms of academic dishonesty can include zero points on an assignment, failure for the course, or dismissal from the university.

This course provides an overview of the politics and societies of the developing world and aims t... more This course provides an overview of the politics and societies of the developing world and aims to facilitate students' understanding of the reasons for variation across countries in political and economic outcomes and the consequences of that variation. This course surveys key themes, issues and forces shaping the processes of socio-economic and political development in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. We draw on examples from across a variety of developing and middle-income countries. The course uses the comparative method: we consider hypotheses about why particular countries and governments look and act the way they do and then try to use empirical evidence to evaluate the hypotheses. assignment is explicitly designed to be collaborative, you are expected to work independently of other students. When you make use of external sources, you are required to cite them. When in doubt about whether a citation is necessary or not, provide a citation. As described in the University of Illinois Student Code, consequences for plagiarism or other forms of academic dishonesty can include zero points on an assignment, failure for the course or dismissal from the university.

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At the conclusion of the Cold War, new ideological space opened up for foreign aid to be more cle... more At the conclusion of the Cold War, new ideological space opened up for foreign aid to be more clearly dedicated to economic development and poverty alleviation. At the same moment, intellectual tides were turning against structural adjustment programming, which had stimulated little economic growth over the previous decade and, in fact, was accused of having led to increased, rather than decreased, immiseration. By the late 1990s, there had been a discursive shift away from the neoliberal economic policies of the Washington Consensus, and the international development industry was discussing good governance and the need to combat corruption; the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund replaced their structural adjustment lending with so-called poverty reduction lending. The turn of the millennium brought the poverty-focused Millennium Development Goals, and the first decade of the 21st century brought a series of conferences on aid effectiveness and the rising prominence of evidence-based foreign aid. How great are the changes that the development industry has seen over the past 30 years? How different is the post-Washington Consensus era from that which preceded it? And what are the implications of these changes for economic development and poverty alleviation?

Japan needs to look at ways to better connect its programs to its national brand.

Blog post for The Monkey Cage blog on the Washington Post website

Blog post on Panoramas (University of Pittsburgh) in which we review the findings from our studie... more Blog post on Panoramas (University of Pittsburgh) in which we review the findings from our studies about voter attitudes toward corruption.

A blog post for the International Studies Quarterly online symposium in which I replicate and ext... more A blog post for the International Studies Quarterly online symposium in which I replicate and extend the analysis from the article “Is US Humanitarian Aid Based Primarily on Need or Self-Interest?” by Rob Kevlihan, Karl DeRouen Jr and Glen Biglaiser.

Blog post at Democracy Audit UK blog (London School of Economics) reviewing our research on how v... more Blog post at Democracy Audit UK blog (London School of Economics) reviewing our research on how voters react to corruption in Brazil.