Michael Kruk | University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (original) (raw)
Papers by Michael Kruk
1. OVERVIEW Extreme events: the floods that displace us from our homes, the high waves that wash ... more 1. OVERVIEW Extreme events: the floods that displace us from our homes, the high waves that wash out coastal roads, or the toppling of trees and power poles from a passing storm. For locations around the Pacific Rim, where remote island chains sit perilously close to sea-level and where rainfall is the primary source of water, questions arise concerning the return frequency and duration of such events, and whether or not they are getting more extreme. Understanding the long-term variability and change in coastal climate extremes has grown in public awareness given the potentially severe impacts related to sea-level rise coupled with coastal storms. To reduce vulnerability to the economic, social, and environmental risks associated with these phenomena, decision-makers in coastal communities need timely access to accurate and contextually relevant information that affords them an opportunity to plan and respond accordingly. To address this need, the Pacific Storms Climatology Product...
Monthly Weather Review, 2015
Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 2009
The 2004 and 2005 North Atlantic hurricane seasons were among the most active and economically de... more The 2004 and 2005 North Atlantic hurricane seasons were among the most active and economically devastating for the United States, during which 18 tropical cyclones (TCs) made landfall. These TCs were analyzed using the International Best Tracks Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and Local Storm Reports (LSR) datasets to determine whether they produced tornadoes within a preferred quadrant and distance from the center of circulation of the TC. The land-falling TCs were tracked and analyzed through their weakening stages with tornado reports being classified based on the strength of the TC at the time of occurrence. Tornado reports were not included after the TC was classified as extratropical in the IBTrACS dataset. Over half of all tornado reports occurred when the TCs were rated at or below tropical storm strength. As expected, the northeast quadrant was the most dominate area where tornadic activity occurred. In addition, there were three distinct peaks in tornadic activity...
Monthly Weather Review, 2010
Meteorological Applications, 2011
ABSTRACT: According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there is a need to c... more ABSTRACT: According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there is a need to carry out in-depth research into the potential for renewable energy as part of international efforts to combat climate change and reduce dependency on fossil fuels. The purpose of ...
Meteorological Applications, 2014
For the purpose of assessing solar energy resources in different parts of Iran, this article prov... more For the purpose of assessing solar energy resources in different parts of Iran, this article provides a synopsis of the spatial and temporal variability of sunshine hours at 37 first-order synoptic stations during the period 1981-2007. Annual and seasonal variations of sunshine duration were determined for four distinct regions within the country. By averaging the time series of sunshine hours in each subregion and standardizing them, four regional representative time series were developed. The results indicate, over all regions, the annual pattern of sunshine duration exhibited large sinusoidal increases and decreases, with minima occurring in 1990 and 2003. The trends of sunshine duration indicated that the sign of the seasonal and annual trends for the vast majority stations has been positive. The maximum positive trend was found across the western parts of the country for all seasons. The spring was found to have a negative trend in sunshine hours at only 2 of the 37 stations. On the annual scale, the change rates in sunshine hours from western to eastern part of Iran have gradually declined over time. The highest positive annual trend was found at Sanandaj station on the west side of Zagross Mountain, with of rate 253 h per decade. Given the increasing trends observed at many stations in Iran over the last 25 years, and recognizing the natural high sunshine duration experienced across the region, a strong case can be made for the introduction of solar energy across the country.
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2005
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2010
Best track data generally consist of the positions and intensities during the life cycle of a tro... more Best track data generally consist of the positions and intensities during the life cycle of a tropical cyclone. Despite the widespread interest in the distribution, frequency, and intensity of tropical cyclones worldwide, no publicly available central repository of global best track data from ...
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2010
Tropical cyclones pose a significant threat to life and property along coastal regions of the Uni... more Tropical cyclones pose a significant threat to life and property along coastal regions of the United States. As these systems move inland and dissipate, they can also pose a threat to life and property, through heavy rains, high winds, and other severe weather such as tornadoes. While many studies have focused on the impacts from tropical cyclones on coastal counties of the United States, this study goes beyond the coast and examines the impacts caused by tropical cyclones on inland locations. Using geographical information system software, historical track data are used in conjunction with the radial maximum extent of the maximum sustained winds at 34-, 50-, and 64-kt (1 kt ' 0.5 m s 21 ) thresholds for all intensities of tropical cyclones and overlaid on a 30-km equal-area grid that covers the eastern half of the United States. The result is a series of maps with frequency distributions and an estimation of return intervals for inland tropical storm-and hurricane-force winds. Knowing where the climatologically favored areas are for tropical cyclones, combined with a climatological expectation of the inland penetration frequency of these storms, can be of tremendous value to forecasters, emergency managers, and the public.
International Journal of Climatology, 2014
ABSTRACT The relevant literature on extreme rainfall events in the Pacific remains relatively spa... more ABSTRACT The relevant literature on extreme rainfall events in the Pacific remains relatively sparse compared to other regions (e.g. the coterminous United States, Europe, etc.). Moreover, several recent reports on climate in the Pacific mention the paucity of extremes information and often list ‘trends in historical climate’ as a necessary next step. This scientific assessment meets this need by examining historical trends in and drivers of extreme rainfall events across the entire Pacific Basin, inclusive from Alaska southward to Australia, and longitudinally from the Philippines eastward to North America, with an emphasis on island and coastal locations (within 200 km of the coastline). There is evidence of a general decrease in the frequency of annual extreme rainfall events, yet the amount of extreme precipitation contributing to annual and seasonal totals appears to be on the rise. Region-wide, the number of consecutive dry days is increasing for those locations that are already dry, while the number of consecutive wet days is increasing for the already wet locales. The data for extreme rainfall statistics are considered to be relatively high quality for trend detection, while the level of understanding of the physical causes behind extreme rainfall is positively high. Since the ability to analyze the changes in historical rainfall extremes with some confidence is relatively recent, understanding is expected to improve in the future with the advancement of new datasets and ‘climate reanalysis’ projects.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2010
What: Representatives, data managers, and tropical cyclone researchers from agencies and organiza... more What: Representatives, data managers, and tropical cyclone researchers from agencies and organizations around the globe that provide tropical cyclone best-track data met to discuss and improve the historical record of tropical cyclones.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2010
ams.confex.com
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center's (... more The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center's (NCDC) Climate Database Modernization Program (CDMP) Forts Database Build 1820s-1890s Project (Forts) has resulted in the scanning and indexing of hundreds of thousands of ...
1. OVERVIEW Extreme events: the floods that displace us from our homes, the high waves that wash ... more 1. OVERVIEW Extreme events: the floods that displace us from our homes, the high waves that wash out coastal roads, or the toppling of trees and power poles from a passing storm. For locations around the Pacific Rim, where remote island chains sit perilously close to sea-level and where rainfall is the primary source of water, questions arise concerning the return frequency and duration of such events, and whether or not they are getting more extreme. Understanding the long-term variability and change in coastal climate extremes has grown in public awareness given the potentially severe impacts related to sea-level rise coupled with coastal storms. To reduce vulnerability to the economic, social, and environmental risks associated with these phenomena, decision-makers in coastal communities need timely access to accurate and contextually relevant information that affords them an opportunity to plan and respond accordingly. To address this need, the Pacific Storms Climatology Product...
Monthly Weather Review, 2015
Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 2009
The 2004 and 2005 North Atlantic hurricane seasons were among the most active and economically de... more The 2004 and 2005 North Atlantic hurricane seasons were among the most active and economically devastating for the United States, during which 18 tropical cyclones (TCs) made landfall. These TCs were analyzed using the International Best Tracks Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and Local Storm Reports (LSR) datasets to determine whether they produced tornadoes within a preferred quadrant and distance from the center of circulation of the TC. The land-falling TCs were tracked and analyzed through their weakening stages with tornado reports being classified based on the strength of the TC at the time of occurrence. Tornado reports were not included after the TC was classified as extratropical in the IBTrACS dataset. Over half of all tornado reports occurred when the TCs were rated at or below tropical storm strength. As expected, the northeast quadrant was the most dominate area where tornadic activity occurred. In addition, there were three distinct peaks in tornadic activity...
Monthly Weather Review, 2010
Meteorological Applications, 2011
ABSTRACT: According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there is a need to c... more ABSTRACT: According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there is a need to carry out in-depth research into the potential for renewable energy as part of international efforts to combat climate change and reduce dependency on fossil fuels. The purpose of ...
Meteorological Applications, 2014
For the purpose of assessing solar energy resources in different parts of Iran, this article prov... more For the purpose of assessing solar energy resources in different parts of Iran, this article provides a synopsis of the spatial and temporal variability of sunshine hours at 37 first-order synoptic stations during the period 1981-2007. Annual and seasonal variations of sunshine duration were determined for four distinct regions within the country. By averaging the time series of sunshine hours in each subregion and standardizing them, four regional representative time series were developed. The results indicate, over all regions, the annual pattern of sunshine duration exhibited large sinusoidal increases and decreases, with minima occurring in 1990 and 2003. The trends of sunshine duration indicated that the sign of the seasonal and annual trends for the vast majority stations has been positive. The maximum positive trend was found across the western parts of the country for all seasons. The spring was found to have a negative trend in sunshine hours at only 2 of the 37 stations. On the annual scale, the change rates in sunshine hours from western to eastern part of Iran have gradually declined over time. The highest positive annual trend was found at Sanandaj station on the west side of Zagross Mountain, with of rate 253 h per decade. Given the increasing trends observed at many stations in Iran over the last 25 years, and recognizing the natural high sunshine duration experienced across the region, a strong case can be made for the introduction of solar energy across the country.
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2005
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 2010
Best track data generally consist of the positions and intensities during the life cycle of a tro... more Best track data generally consist of the positions and intensities during the life cycle of a tropical cyclone. Despite the widespread interest in the distribution, frequency, and intensity of tropical cyclones worldwide, no publicly available central repository of global best track data from ...
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2010
Tropical cyclones pose a significant threat to life and property along coastal regions of the Uni... more Tropical cyclones pose a significant threat to life and property along coastal regions of the United States. As these systems move inland and dissipate, they can also pose a threat to life and property, through heavy rains, high winds, and other severe weather such as tornadoes. While many studies have focused on the impacts from tropical cyclones on coastal counties of the United States, this study goes beyond the coast and examines the impacts caused by tropical cyclones on inland locations. Using geographical information system software, historical track data are used in conjunction with the radial maximum extent of the maximum sustained winds at 34-, 50-, and 64-kt (1 kt ' 0.5 m s 21 ) thresholds for all intensities of tropical cyclones and overlaid on a 30-km equal-area grid that covers the eastern half of the United States. The result is a series of maps with frequency distributions and an estimation of return intervals for inland tropical storm-and hurricane-force winds. Knowing where the climatologically favored areas are for tropical cyclones, combined with a climatological expectation of the inland penetration frequency of these storms, can be of tremendous value to forecasters, emergency managers, and the public.
International Journal of Climatology, 2014
ABSTRACT The relevant literature on extreme rainfall events in the Pacific remains relatively spa... more ABSTRACT The relevant literature on extreme rainfall events in the Pacific remains relatively sparse compared to other regions (e.g. the coterminous United States, Europe, etc.). Moreover, several recent reports on climate in the Pacific mention the paucity of extremes information and often list ‘trends in historical climate’ as a necessary next step. This scientific assessment meets this need by examining historical trends in and drivers of extreme rainfall events across the entire Pacific Basin, inclusive from Alaska southward to Australia, and longitudinally from the Philippines eastward to North America, with an emphasis on island and coastal locations (within 200 km of the coastline). There is evidence of a general decrease in the frequency of annual extreme rainfall events, yet the amount of extreme precipitation contributing to annual and seasonal totals appears to be on the rise. Region-wide, the number of consecutive dry days is increasing for those locations that are already dry, while the number of consecutive wet days is increasing for the already wet locales. The data for extreme rainfall statistics are considered to be relatively high quality for trend detection, while the level of understanding of the physical causes behind extreme rainfall is positively high. Since the ability to analyze the changes in historical rainfall extremes with some confidence is relatively recent, understanding is expected to improve in the future with the advancement of new datasets and ‘climate reanalysis’ projects.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2010
What: Representatives, data managers, and tropical cyclone researchers from agencies and organiza... more What: Representatives, data managers, and tropical cyclone researchers from agencies and organizations around the globe that provide tropical cyclone best-track data met to discuss and improve the historical record of tropical cyclones.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2010
ams.confex.com
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center's (... more The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center's (NCDC) Climate Database Modernization Program (CDMP) Forts Database Build 1820s-1890s Project (Forts) has resulted in the scanning and indexing of hundreds of thousands of ...