Nadeem Ilahi | International Monetary Fund (original) (raw)

Papers by Nadeem Ilahi

Research paper thumbnail of Climate Change Mitigation and Policy Spillovers in the EU’s Immediate Neighborhood

IMF working paper, Nov 30, 2023

EU’s neighborhood countries (EUN) have lagged the EU on emissions mitigation; coal-heavy power ge... more EU’s neighborhood countries (EUN) have lagged the EU on emissions mitigation; coal-heavy power generation and industrial sectors are a key factor. They have also trailed EU countries in emissions mitigation policies since 2000, with little use of market-based instruments, and they still have substantial fossil fuel subsidies. Increasingly stringent EU mitigation policies are asociated with lower emissions in EUN. Overall output effects of the CBAM, in its current form, would be limited, though exports and emissions-intensive industries could be heavily impacted. A unilaterally adopted economywide carbon tax of $75 per ton would significantly lower emissions by 2030, with minimal consequences for output or household welfare, though a safety net for the affected workers may be necessary. To become competitive today by attracting green FDI and technology, overcoming infrastructure constraints and integrating into EU’s supply chains, EUN countries would be well served to front load decarbonization, rather than postpone it for later.

Research paper thumbnail of Nadeem Ilahi, 2007, “Looking Beyond the Fiscal: Do Oil Funds Bring

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views express... more This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the authors and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. Oil funds have become increasingly popular in oil exporting countries during the recent surge in oil prices. However, the literature on the contribution is small, tends to focus narrowly on their fiscal benefits, and concludes that they are redundant of such funds—in other words, that well designed fiscal management and policy are adequate substitutes for oil funds. This paper argues that a broader focus is needed in judging the effectiveness of such funds. We test whether oil funds help reduce macroeconomic volatility. The econometric estimation results from a 30-year panel data set of 15 countries with and without oil funds suggest that oil funds are asso...

Research paper thumbnail of Looking Beyond the Fiscal

Oil funds have become increasingly popular in oil exporting countries during the recent surge in ... more Oil funds have become increasingly popular in oil exporting countries during the recent surge in oil prices. However, the literature on the contribution is small, tends to focus narrowly on their fiscal benefits, and concludes that they are redundant of such funds-in other words, that well designed fiscal management and policy are adequate substitutes for oil funds. This paper argues that a broader focus is needed in judging the effectiveness of such funds. We test whether oil funds help reduce macroeconomic volatility. The econometric estimation results from a 30-year panel data set of 15 countries with and without oil funds suggest that oil funds are associated with reduced volatility of broad money and prices and lower inflation. However, there is a statistically weak negative association between the presence of an oil fund and volatility of the real exchange rate.Oil;Oil revenues;Risk management;Fiscal management;Exchange rate instability;exchange rate, oil exporting countries, oil exporting, real exchange rate, exporting countries, oil exports, reer, exchange rate volatility, total exports, exchange rate policy, exporters, oil exporters, real exchange rate volatility, exporter, export earnings, exchange rates, exchange rate regimes, real effective exchange rate, nominal exchange rate, history of exchange rate, exchange rate appreciation, real effective exchange rates, effective exchange rate, exchange rate information, bilateral exchange rate, oil exporting country, oil exporter, nominal exchange rates, stable exchange rate, effective exchange rates, exporting country, real exchange rate appreciation, de facto exchange rate regimes, fixed nominal exchange rate, gas exporters

Research paper thumbnail of Lifting Growth in the Western Balkans

Departmental Papers / Policy Papers, 2019

In the past 25 years, exports have contributed strongly to growth and economic convergence in man... more In the past 25 years, exports have contributed strongly to growth and economic convergence in many small open economies. However, the Western Balkan (WB) region, consisting of small emerging market economies, has not fully availed itself of this driver of growth and convergence. A lack of openness, reliance on low value products, and weak competitiveness largely explain the insignificant role of trade and exports in the region’s economic performance. This paper focuses on how the countries in the WB could lift exports through stronger integration with global value chains (GVCs) and broadening of services exports. The experience of countries that joined the European Union in or after 2004 shows that participation in GVCs can help small economies accelerate export and income growth. WB countries are not well integrated into Europe’s vibrant GVCs. Trade within the region is also limited—it tends to be bilateral and not cluster-like. Our analysis shows that by improving infrastructure a...

Research paper thumbnail of Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe

Staff Discussion Notes, 2016

DISCLAIMER: Staff Discussion Notes (SDNs) showcase policy-related analysis and research being dev... more DISCLAIMER: Staff Discussion Notes (SDNs) showcase policy-related analysis and research being developed by IMF staff members and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in SDNs are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Research paper thumbnail of Child Labor, Schooling, and Poverty in Latin America

Child Labor and Education in Latin America, 2009

Research paper thumbnail of Gender and the Allocation of Adult Time

Research paper thumbnail of How Russia Affects the Neighborhood: Trade, Financial, and Remittance Channels

IMF Working Papers, 2009

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views express... more This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. We test the extent to which growth in the 11 CIS countries (excluding Russia) was associated with developments in Russia, overall, as well as through the trade, financial and remittance channels over the last decade or so. The results point to the continued existence of economic links between the CIS countries and Russia, though these links may have altered since the 1998 crisis. Russia appears to influence regional growth mainly through the remittance channel and somewhat less so through the financial channel. There is a shrinking role of the trade (exports to Russia) channel. Russian growth shocks are associated with sizable effects on Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and, to some extent, Georgia.

Research paper thumbnail of Do the Gulf Oil-Producing Countries Influence Regional Growth? T+L3886he Impact of Financial and Remittance Flows

IMF Working Papers, 2008

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views express... more This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. This paper tests the association between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries' financial and remittance outflows and regional growth in the Middle East. The findings, based on 35-year panel data, indicate that growth rates of real GDP, private consumption and private investment in regional countries are strongly associated with remittance outflows from and the accumulation of financial surpluses in the GCC. Unlike in other developing and emerging market countries, growth in regional countries is not influenced by growth in the North, and is not export led. Linkages with the GCC could help sustain output growth in the regional countries in the face of the global economic slowdown and oil price shocks and could provide diversification gains to international capital seeking markets uncorrelated with Northern and emerging market countries.

Research paper thumbnail of Children’s Work and Schooling: Does Gender Matter? Evidence from the Peru LSMS

Policy Research Working Papers, 2001

Using panel data from Peru, Ilahi investigates the welfare than does boys'. Similarly, girls are ... more Using panel data from Peru, Ilahi investigates the welfare than does boys'. Similarly, girls are more likely determinants of the allocation of boys' and girls' time to than boys to adjust their home time in response to schooling, housework, and income-generating activities. changes in adult female employment and to sickness of Specifically, she explores whether sickness, female household members. Lack of access to energy headship, access to infrastructure, and employment of infrastructure lowers the educational attainment of both women in the household have different impacts on the boys and girls but has little affect on their labor. time use of boys and girls. The traditional approach to the determinants of child Girls mostly engage in housework, and boys mostly labor and education excludes housework and may work outside the home. As a work activity, housework understate children's time use, particularly that of girls. responds to economic incentives and constraints. It may therefore also overlook an important gender The author's econometric findings suggest that changes dimension of education policy. Safety nets that protect in household welfare affect girls' work and schooling household incomes from employment shocks and more than boys'. Even though boys' and girls' sickness, and childcare programs that allow women to educational attainment rates are the same, girls' work, would reduce the likelihood of girls being pulled education responds more to changes in household out of school. This paper-a product of the Gender Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-was originally written for the recentWorld Bank publication EngenderingDevelopment. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank,

Research paper thumbnail of Public Infrastructure and Private Costs: Water Supply and Time Allocation of Women in Rural Pakistan

Economic Development and Cultural Change, 2000

I. Introduction The critical role that women play in alleviating poverty and promoting developmen... more I. Introduction The critical role that women play in alleviating poverty and promoting development has been receiving increasing recognition. In developing countries, for example, women's role is critical in improving the nutri-tional and educational levels of their children. In addition, ...

Research paper thumbnail of Economic Insecurity, Individual Behavior and Social Policy

for helpful discussions. Naturally, we alone are responsible for the views expressed here.

Research paper thumbnail of Climate Change Mitigation and Policy Spillovers in the EU’s Immediate Neighborhood

IMF Working Paper Series, 2023

EU’s neighborhood countries (EUN) have lagged the EU on emissions mitigation; coal-heavy power ge... more EU’s neighborhood countries (EUN) have lagged the EU on emissions mitigation; coal-heavy power generation and industrial sectors are a key factor. They have also trailed EU countries in emissions mitigation policies since 2000, with little use of market-based instruments, and they still have substantial fossil fuel subsidies. Increasingly stringent EU mitigation policies are asociated with lower emissions in EUN. Overall output effects of the CBAM, in its current form, would be limited, though exports and emissions-intensive industries could be heavily impacted. A unilaterally adopted economywide carbon tax of $75 per ton would significantly lower emissions by 2030, with minimal consequences for output or household welfare, though a safety net for the affected workers may be necessary. To become competitive today by attracting green FDI and technology, overcoming infrastructure constraints and integrating into EU’s supply chains, EUN countries would be well served to front load decarbonization, rather than postpone it for later.

Research paper thumbnail of Securing our future in a global economy

World Bank Latin American and Caribbean studies ; viewpoints;, 2000

In the 1990s Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) began to resurface from the lost decade of the... more In the 1990s Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) began to resurface from the lost decade of the 1980s after a sustained reform effort by the countries to enhance the role of market forces and increase the region's real and financial integration into the global economy. In spite of this, perceptions of economic insecurity run high in the region. This report assesses the extent, causes, and effects of economic insecurity in LAC and identifies policies and institutions that can help reduce the degree of insecurity faced by workers and households in the region, while allowing them to take advantage of the enhanced economic opportunities brought about by the recent reforms. After stating the facts concerning economic insecurity in Chapter 2, the report then sets out a general analytical framework to help organize the various options available to individuals and governments for dealing with economic insecurity (Chapter 3). With this framework, the remaining chapters focus on measures to deal with risks. First, they suggest the causes of macroeconomic or aggregate volatility and some remedies (Chapter 4). Then this report examines how these risks affect individuals and households, and their responses to economic shocks (Chapter 5). Next the report discusses the risk of becoming unemployed, and the public responses to help workers deal with this risk (Chapter 6). Appropriate social insurance and social protection is considered in the final chapter.

Research paper thumbnail of Asegurando el futuro en una economía globalizada

Reservados todos los derechos Capítulo 5: La respuesta de los hogares de América Latina y el Cari... more Reservados todos los derechos Capítulo 5: La respuesta de los hogares de América Latina y el Caribe ante las crisis económicas ..

Research paper thumbnail of How Russia Affects the Neighborhood -Trade, Financial, and Remittance Channels

IMF Working Paper Series, 2009

We test the extent to which growth in the 11 CIS countries (excluding Russia) was associated with... more We test the extent to which growth in the 11 CIS countries (excluding Russia) was associated with developments in Russia, overall, as well as through the trade, financial and remittance channels over the last decade or so. The results point to the continued existence of economic links between the CIS countries and Russia, though these links may have altered since the 1998 crisis. Russia appears to influence regional growth mainly through the remittance channel and somewhat less so through the financial channel. There is a shrinking role of the trade (exports to Russia) channel. Russian growth shocks are associated with sizable effects on Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and, to some extent, Georgia.Spillovers;Emerging markets;Capital flows;Banking crisis;Economic growth;Economic models;Regional shocks;Trade integration;Workers remittances;gdp growth, remittance, remittances, growth rates, growth rate, remittance flows, business cycle, remittance outflows, remittance...

Research paper thumbnail of Natural resource degradation and female time allocation in developing countries Evidence from Pakistan

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:3597.973(EU-DE-DP--464) / BLDSC - ... more SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:3597.973(EU-DE-DP--464) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Research paper thumbnail of Guestworker return migration and occupational chice : evidence from Pakistan

Research paper thumbnail of Asset Purchase Programs in European Emerging Markets

IMF Departmental Paper Series, 2021

Several emerging market central banks in Europe deployed asset purchase programs (APPs) amid the ... more Several emerging market central banks in Europe deployed asset purchase programs (APPs) amid the 2020 pandemic. The common main goals were to address market dysfunction and impaired monetary transmission, distinct from the quantitative easing conducted by major advanced economy central banks. Likely reflecting the global nature of the crisis, these APPs defied the traditional emerging market concern of destabilizing the exchange rate or inflation expectations and instead alleviated markets successfully. We uncover some evidence that APPs in European emerging markets stabilized government bond markets and boosted equity prices, with no indication of exchange rate pressure. Examining global and domestic factors that could limit the usability of APPs, in the event of renewed market dysfunction we see a potential scope for scaling up APPs in most European emerging markets that used APPs during the pandemic, provided that they remain consistent with the primary objective of monetary poli...

Research paper thumbnail of How Does Working as a Child Affect Wages, Income, and Poverty as an Adult?

Child Labor and Education in Latin America, 2009

The World Bank Social Protection Discussion Papers are not formal publications of the World Bank.... more The World Bank Social Protection Discussion Papers are not formal publications of the World Bank. They present preliminary and unpolished results of analysis that are circulated to encourage discussion and comment; citation and the use of such a paper should take account of its provisional character. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent.

Research paper thumbnail of Climate Change Mitigation and Policy Spillovers in the EU’s Immediate Neighborhood

IMF working paper, Nov 30, 2023

EU’s neighborhood countries (EUN) have lagged the EU on emissions mitigation; coal-heavy power ge... more EU’s neighborhood countries (EUN) have lagged the EU on emissions mitigation; coal-heavy power generation and industrial sectors are a key factor. They have also trailed EU countries in emissions mitigation policies since 2000, with little use of market-based instruments, and they still have substantial fossil fuel subsidies. Increasingly stringent EU mitigation policies are asociated with lower emissions in EUN. Overall output effects of the CBAM, in its current form, would be limited, though exports and emissions-intensive industries could be heavily impacted. A unilaterally adopted economywide carbon tax of $75 per ton would significantly lower emissions by 2030, with minimal consequences for output or household welfare, though a safety net for the affected workers may be necessary. To become competitive today by attracting green FDI and technology, overcoming infrastructure constraints and integrating into EU’s supply chains, EUN countries would be well served to front load decarbonization, rather than postpone it for later.

Research paper thumbnail of Nadeem Ilahi, 2007, “Looking Beyond the Fiscal: Do Oil Funds Bring

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views express... more This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the authors and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. Oil funds have become increasingly popular in oil exporting countries during the recent surge in oil prices. However, the literature on the contribution is small, tends to focus narrowly on their fiscal benefits, and concludes that they are redundant of such funds—in other words, that well designed fiscal management and policy are adequate substitutes for oil funds. This paper argues that a broader focus is needed in judging the effectiveness of such funds. We test whether oil funds help reduce macroeconomic volatility. The econometric estimation results from a 30-year panel data set of 15 countries with and without oil funds suggest that oil funds are asso...

Research paper thumbnail of Looking Beyond the Fiscal

Oil funds have become increasingly popular in oil exporting countries during the recent surge in ... more Oil funds have become increasingly popular in oil exporting countries during the recent surge in oil prices. However, the literature on the contribution is small, tends to focus narrowly on their fiscal benefits, and concludes that they are redundant of such funds-in other words, that well designed fiscal management and policy are adequate substitutes for oil funds. This paper argues that a broader focus is needed in judging the effectiveness of such funds. We test whether oil funds help reduce macroeconomic volatility. The econometric estimation results from a 30-year panel data set of 15 countries with and without oil funds suggest that oil funds are associated with reduced volatility of broad money and prices and lower inflation. However, there is a statistically weak negative association between the presence of an oil fund and volatility of the real exchange rate.Oil;Oil revenues;Risk management;Fiscal management;Exchange rate instability;exchange rate, oil exporting countries, oil exporting, real exchange rate, exporting countries, oil exports, reer, exchange rate volatility, total exports, exchange rate policy, exporters, oil exporters, real exchange rate volatility, exporter, export earnings, exchange rates, exchange rate regimes, real effective exchange rate, nominal exchange rate, history of exchange rate, exchange rate appreciation, real effective exchange rates, effective exchange rate, exchange rate information, bilateral exchange rate, oil exporting country, oil exporter, nominal exchange rates, stable exchange rate, effective exchange rates, exporting country, real exchange rate appreciation, de facto exchange rate regimes, fixed nominal exchange rate, gas exporters

Research paper thumbnail of Lifting Growth in the Western Balkans

Departmental Papers / Policy Papers, 2019

In the past 25 years, exports have contributed strongly to growth and economic convergence in man... more In the past 25 years, exports have contributed strongly to growth and economic convergence in many small open economies. However, the Western Balkan (WB) region, consisting of small emerging market economies, has not fully availed itself of this driver of growth and convergence. A lack of openness, reliance on low value products, and weak competitiveness largely explain the insignificant role of trade and exports in the region’s economic performance. This paper focuses on how the countries in the WB could lift exports through stronger integration with global value chains (GVCs) and broadening of services exports. The experience of countries that joined the European Union in or after 2004 shows that participation in GVCs can help small economies accelerate export and income growth. WB countries are not well integrated into Europe’s vibrant GVCs. Trade within the region is also limited—it tends to be bilateral and not cluster-like. Our analysis shows that by improving infrastructure a...

Research paper thumbnail of Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe

Staff Discussion Notes, 2016

DISCLAIMER: Staff Discussion Notes (SDNs) showcase policy-related analysis and research being dev... more DISCLAIMER: Staff Discussion Notes (SDNs) showcase policy-related analysis and research being developed by IMF staff members and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in SDNs are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Research paper thumbnail of Child Labor, Schooling, and Poverty in Latin America

Child Labor and Education in Latin America, 2009

Research paper thumbnail of Gender and the Allocation of Adult Time

Research paper thumbnail of How Russia Affects the Neighborhood: Trade, Financial, and Remittance Channels

IMF Working Papers, 2009

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views express... more This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. We test the extent to which growth in the 11 CIS countries (excluding Russia) was associated with developments in Russia, overall, as well as through the trade, financial and remittance channels over the last decade or so. The results point to the continued existence of economic links between the CIS countries and Russia, though these links may have altered since the 1998 crisis. Russia appears to influence regional growth mainly through the remittance channel and somewhat less so through the financial channel. There is a shrinking role of the trade (exports to Russia) channel. Russian growth shocks are associated with sizable effects on Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and, to some extent, Georgia.

Research paper thumbnail of Do the Gulf Oil-Producing Countries Influence Regional Growth? T+L3886he Impact of Financial and Remittance Flows

IMF Working Papers, 2008

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views express... more This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. This paper tests the association between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries' financial and remittance outflows and regional growth in the Middle East. The findings, based on 35-year panel data, indicate that growth rates of real GDP, private consumption and private investment in regional countries are strongly associated with remittance outflows from and the accumulation of financial surpluses in the GCC. Unlike in other developing and emerging market countries, growth in regional countries is not influenced by growth in the North, and is not export led. Linkages with the GCC could help sustain output growth in the regional countries in the face of the global economic slowdown and oil price shocks and could provide diversification gains to international capital seeking markets uncorrelated with Northern and emerging market countries.

Research paper thumbnail of Children’s Work and Schooling: Does Gender Matter? Evidence from the Peru LSMS

Policy Research Working Papers, 2001

Using panel data from Peru, Ilahi investigates the welfare than does boys'. Similarly, girls are ... more Using panel data from Peru, Ilahi investigates the welfare than does boys'. Similarly, girls are more likely determinants of the allocation of boys' and girls' time to than boys to adjust their home time in response to schooling, housework, and income-generating activities. changes in adult female employment and to sickness of Specifically, she explores whether sickness, female household members. Lack of access to energy headship, access to infrastructure, and employment of infrastructure lowers the educational attainment of both women in the household have different impacts on the boys and girls but has little affect on their labor. time use of boys and girls. The traditional approach to the determinants of child Girls mostly engage in housework, and boys mostly labor and education excludes housework and may work outside the home. As a work activity, housework understate children's time use, particularly that of girls. responds to economic incentives and constraints. It may therefore also overlook an important gender The author's econometric findings suggest that changes dimension of education policy. Safety nets that protect in household welfare affect girls' work and schooling household incomes from employment shocks and more than boys'. Even though boys' and girls' sickness, and childcare programs that allow women to educational attainment rates are the same, girls' work, would reduce the likelihood of girls being pulled education responds more to changes in household out of school. This paper-a product of the Gender Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region-was originally written for the recentWorld Bank publication EngenderingDevelopment. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank,

Research paper thumbnail of Public Infrastructure and Private Costs: Water Supply and Time Allocation of Women in Rural Pakistan

Economic Development and Cultural Change, 2000

I. Introduction The critical role that women play in alleviating poverty and promoting developmen... more I. Introduction The critical role that women play in alleviating poverty and promoting development has been receiving increasing recognition. In developing countries, for example, women's role is critical in improving the nutri-tional and educational levels of their children. In addition, ...

Research paper thumbnail of Economic Insecurity, Individual Behavior and Social Policy

for helpful discussions. Naturally, we alone are responsible for the views expressed here.

Research paper thumbnail of Climate Change Mitigation and Policy Spillovers in the EU’s Immediate Neighborhood

IMF Working Paper Series, 2023

EU’s neighborhood countries (EUN) have lagged the EU on emissions mitigation; coal-heavy power ge... more EU’s neighborhood countries (EUN) have lagged the EU on emissions mitigation; coal-heavy power generation and industrial sectors are a key factor. They have also trailed EU countries in emissions mitigation policies since 2000, with little use of market-based instruments, and they still have substantial fossil fuel subsidies. Increasingly stringent EU mitigation policies are asociated with lower emissions in EUN. Overall output effects of the CBAM, in its current form, would be limited, though exports and emissions-intensive industries could be heavily impacted. A unilaterally adopted economywide carbon tax of $75 per ton would significantly lower emissions by 2030, with minimal consequences for output or household welfare, though a safety net for the affected workers may be necessary. To become competitive today by attracting green FDI and technology, overcoming infrastructure constraints and integrating into EU’s supply chains, EUN countries would be well served to front load decarbonization, rather than postpone it for later.

Research paper thumbnail of Securing our future in a global economy

World Bank Latin American and Caribbean studies ; viewpoints;, 2000

In the 1990s Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) began to resurface from the lost decade of the... more In the 1990s Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) began to resurface from the lost decade of the 1980s after a sustained reform effort by the countries to enhance the role of market forces and increase the region's real and financial integration into the global economy. In spite of this, perceptions of economic insecurity run high in the region. This report assesses the extent, causes, and effects of economic insecurity in LAC and identifies policies and institutions that can help reduce the degree of insecurity faced by workers and households in the region, while allowing them to take advantage of the enhanced economic opportunities brought about by the recent reforms. After stating the facts concerning economic insecurity in Chapter 2, the report then sets out a general analytical framework to help organize the various options available to individuals and governments for dealing with economic insecurity (Chapter 3). With this framework, the remaining chapters focus on measures to deal with risks. First, they suggest the causes of macroeconomic or aggregate volatility and some remedies (Chapter 4). Then this report examines how these risks affect individuals and households, and their responses to economic shocks (Chapter 5). Next the report discusses the risk of becoming unemployed, and the public responses to help workers deal with this risk (Chapter 6). Appropriate social insurance and social protection is considered in the final chapter.

Research paper thumbnail of Asegurando el futuro en una economía globalizada

Reservados todos los derechos Capítulo 5: La respuesta de los hogares de América Latina y el Cari... more Reservados todos los derechos Capítulo 5: La respuesta de los hogares de América Latina y el Caribe ante las crisis económicas ..

Research paper thumbnail of How Russia Affects the Neighborhood -Trade, Financial, and Remittance Channels

IMF Working Paper Series, 2009

We test the extent to which growth in the 11 CIS countries (excluding Russia) was associated with... more We test the extent to which growth in the 11 CIS countries (excluding Russia) was associated with developments in Russia, overall, as well as through the trade, financial and remittance channels over the last decade or so. The results point to the continued existence of economic links between the CIS countries and Russia, though these links may have altered since the 1998 crisis. Russia appears to influence regional growth mainly through the remittance channel and somewhat less so through the financial channel. There is a shrinking role of the trade (exports to Russia) channel. Russian growth shocks are associated with sizable effects on Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and, to some extent, Georgia.Spillovers;Emerging markets;Capital flows;Banking crisis;Economic growth;Economic models;Regional shocks;Trade integration;Workers remittances;gdp growth, remittance, remittances, growth rates, growth rate, remittance flows, business cycle, remittance outflows, remittance...

Research paper thumbnail of Natural resource degradation and female time allocation in developing countries Evidence from Pakistan

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:3597.973(EU-DE-DP--464) / BLDSC - ... more SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:3597.973(EU-DE-DP--464) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Research paper thumbnail of Guestworker return migration and occupational chice : evidence from Pakistan

Research paper thumbnail of Asset Purchase Programs in European Emerging Markets

IMF Departmental Paper Series, 2021

Several emerging market central banks in Europe deployed asset purchase programs (APPs) amid the ... more Several emerging market central banks in Europe deployed asset purchase programs (APPs) amid the 2020 pandemic. The common main goals were to address market dysfunction and impaired monetary transmission, distinct from the quantitative easing conducted by major advanced economy central banks. Likely reflecting the global nature of the crisis, these APPs defied the traditional emerging market concern of destabilizing the exchange rate or inflation expectations and instead alleviated markets successfully. We uncover some evidence that APPs in European emerging markets stabilized government bond markets and boosted equity prices, with no indication of exchange rate pressure. Examining global and domestic factors that could limit the usability of APPs, in the event of renewed market dysfunction we see a potential scope for scaling up APPs in most European emerging markets that used APPs during the pandemic, provided that they remain consistent with the primary objective of monetary poli...

Research paper thumbnail of How Does Working as a Child Affect Wages, Income, and Poverty as an Adult?

Child Labor and Education in Latin America, 2009

The World Bank Social Protection Discussion Papers are not formal publications of the World Bank.... more The World Bank Social Protection Discussion Papers are not formal publications of the World Bank. They present preliminary and unpolished results of analysis that are circulated to encourage discussion and comment; citation and the use of such a paper should take account of its provisional character. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent.