Наталия Кловач - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Наталия Кловач

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Papers by Наталия Кловач

Based on the analysis of climatic data and data on Far East salmon catches for 1911–2016, two typ... more Based on the analysis of climatic data and data on Far East salmon catches for 1911–2016, two types of the
large-scale climatic variability creating favorable conditions for growth of salmon stocks have been revealed.
«The salmon epoch» in the first half of the XX century was associated with warming of surface water in the
Northeast Pacific and its propagation into the northwestern ocean. On the contrary, the favorable conditions
for growth of Asian salmon stocks since the end of the 1980s were resulted from a sharp warming of surface
water in the western half of the ocean. The cooling of Northwest Pacific surface water in 2012–2014 led to
decrease in salmon catches in 2012–2015. However, a sharp warming off the western North American coast
began in autumn, 2013 and continued also in 2014–2016. Advection of this warm water into the Northwest
Pacific resulted in formation of favorable conditions for survival of the 2014–2016 salmon generations,
first of all in the area ofWest and East Kamchatka. In general, the character of sea surface temperature anomalies
distribution in the northern part of the North Pacific in 2015–2016 is very similar to their distribution
during the «salmon epoch» of the first half of the XX century. Thus, it may be supposed that the present
period of high Far East salmon abundance has not come to its end yet. Time of its ending remains uncertain
and depends on how long the anomalously warm state of surface water in the Northeast Pacific will
continue. It is expected that the next «salmon epoch» will begin in the 2030s.

Based on the analysis of climatic data and data on Far East salmon catches for 1911–2016, two typ... more Based on the analysis of climatic data and data on Far East salmon catches for 1911–2016, two types of the
large-scale climatic variability creating favorable conditions for growth of salmon stocks have been revealed.
«The salmon epoch» in the first half of the XX century was associated with warming of surface water in the
Northeast Pacific and its propagation into the northwestern ocean. On the contrary, the favorable conditions
for growth of Asian salmon stocks since the end of the 1980s were resulted from a sharp warming of surface
water in the western half of the ocean. The cooling of Northwest Pacific surface water in 2012–2014 led to
decrease in salmon catches in 2012–2015. However, a sharp warming off the western North American coast
began in autumn, 2013 and continued also in 2014–2016. Advection of this warm water into the Northwest
Pacific resulted in formation of favorable conditions for survival of the 2014–2016 salmon generations,
first of all in the area ofWest and East Kamchatka. In general, the character of sea surface temperature anomalies
distribution in the northern part of the North Pacific in 2015–2016 is very similar to their distribution
during the «salmon epoch» of the first half of the XX century. Thus, it may be supposed that the present
period of high Far East salmon abundance has not come to its end yet. Time of its ending remains uncertain
and depends on how long the anomalously warm state of surface water in the Northeast Pacific will
continue. It is expected that the next «salmon epoch» will begin in the 2030s.

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