Albert Eneas Gakusi - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Albert Eneas Gakusi
Alors que la plupart des etudes demo-economiques sont menees dans le cadre national, cette etude ... more Alors que la plupart des etudes demo-economiques sont menees dans le cadre national, cette etude introduit la dimension internationale dans le debat. En-dehors des discussions partisanes pour le libre-echangisme ou le nationalisme economique, elle tente de mesurer les determinants et les effets structurels de l'ouverture economique des pays de l'Afrique subsaharienne.
Making Finance Work for Africa, 2022
This note aims to briefly present some key aspects of access to finance in Africa, which includes... more This note aims to briefly present some key aspects of access to finance in Africa, which includes: the derisking phenomenon and its implications on trade finance, the low level of access to finance, the long-term financing, the renewal of interest in development banks, the regulatory and supervision capacity, and the coronavirus and its implications for the financial sector.
afdb.org
Page 1. Challenges and Opportunities of Evaluation in Fostering Development in Sub-Saharan Africa... more Page 1. Challenges and Opportunities of Evaluation in Fostering Development in Sub-Saharan Africa Albert-Enéas Gakusi Principal Evaluation Officer, Operations Evaluation Department (OPEV), African Development Bank. Email: a.gakusi@afdb.org ...
La plupart du temps, les relations entre l'economie et la demographie sont abordees dans le c... more La plupart du temps, les relations entre l'economie et la demographie sont abordees dans le cadre national a l'instar des deux plus grands modeles macro-demographiques, ceux de Malthus et de Boserup, opposes dans leur conception sur la nature et sur les consequences des rapports entre la population et l'economie. Or, on doit s'etonner qu'a l'heure du village planetaire, les recherches sur les facteurs demographiques soient encore enfermees dans ce cadre comme si le monde exterieur n'existait pas. Par consequent, cette etude part de l'idee que l'evolution economique ou demographique d'un pays ou d'une region repond non seulement a une dynamique interne mais aussi qu'elle depend de son environnement international.
World Development, 2006
Trends in under-five mortality were favorable in Zambia in the twelve years following independenc... more Trends in under-five mortality were favorable in Zambia in the twelve years following independence (1964-1975), as a result of favorable political and economic context and generous health, education and social policies, largely financed by the exports of copper minerals, the main economic resource of the country. In 1975, the international prices of copper decreased suddenly, and exports of copper continued to diminish in volume. This created a tremendous economic shock to the country, and seriously affected both the state budget and private income. During the long-lasting economic crisis, income per capita was strongly reduced, and most economic indicators collapsed or were strongly reduced as well: imports, agricultural production, private and public consumption, savings, and industrial investments. The health sector was also affected: health expenditures declined, imports of medical drugs and supplies declined, and as a result of declining salaries some physicians left the country. School attendance was reduced somewhat later, in the 1980's, and had long term effect on the mean level of education of adult women. Under-five mortality increased in the years following the copper crisis, up to a maximum in year 1992, after which under-five mortality went down again, despite a significant impact of HIV/AIDS. A regression model indicates that most of the increase in mortality after discounting for the effect of HIV/AIDS is attributable to the direct and indirect effects of the copper crisis and the declining income. Both trend analysis and regression analysis indicate that mortality in 1992 was more than double what it should have been in the context of a regular health transition and positive economic development. The mortality decline after 1992 seems to be due to the resumption of the health transition, the implementation of new health policies, and continuous investments in health personnel and health infrastructure. These changes occurred in the context of structural adjustment policies. Issues about vulnerability and resilience are discussed in light of economic and political choices made in the earlier periods and recent changes in policies.
The European Journal of Development Research, 2007
afdb.org
Page 1. Third Annual African Economic Conference on Globalization, Institutions and Economic Dev... more Page 1. Third Annual African Economic Conference on Globalization, Institutions and Economic Development of Africa Tunis 12-14 November 2008 African Education Challenges and Policy Responses: Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the African Development Bank* ...
African Development Review, 2010
... who provided invaluable inputs to the Review: David Berk, Joseph Bredie; Victoria Elliot, MP ... more ... who provided invaluable inputs to the Review: David Berk, Joseph Bredie; Victoria Elliot, MP Madhusoodhanan; Paschal Mihyo; and Ronald Ridker. Joseph Mouanda, Evaluation officer, also contributed to the analysis of the education portfolio review. Professor John Anyanwu ...
African Development Review, 2005
Page 1. Chocs Externes, Gestion de l'Etat et Mortalite´ des Enfants en Zambie de 1964 a` 199... more Page 1. Chocs Externes, Gestion de l'Etat et Mortalite´ des Enfants en Zambie de 1964 a` 1998 Albert-Ene´as Gakusi, Michel Garenne et Guillaume Gaullier* Re´sume´: La mortalite´ des enfants e´tait en baisse en Zambie, de ...
La plupart du temps, les relations entre l'economie et la demographie sont abordees dans le c... more La plupart du temps, les relations entre l'economie et la demographie sont abordees dans le cadre national a l'instar des deux plus grands modeles macro-demographiques, ceux de Malthus et de Boserup, opposes dans leur conception sur la nature et sur les consequences des rapports entre la population et l'economie. Or, on doit s'etonner qu'a l'heure du village planetaire, les recherches sur les facteurs demographiques soient encore enfermees dans ce cadre comme si le monde exterieur n'existait pas. Par consequent, cette etude part de l'idee que l'evolution economique ou demographique d'un pays ou d'une region repond non seulement a une dynamique interne mais aussi qu'elle depend de son environnement international.
La réalisation de cette étude a bénéficié du soutien du directeur du CEPED, Monsieur Alain Lery, ... more La réalisation de cette étude a bénéficié du soutien du directeur du CEPED, Monsieur Alain Lery, pour les entretiens avec des personnes ayant une connaissance profonde des faits qui ont marqué l'histoire politique, économique et sociale du Rwanda. Tout en étant seuls responsables de l'interprétation des informations, nous tenons à remercier les personnes suivantes pour leurs renseignements et commentaires : Marcel Colson : inspecteur de l'enseignement secondaire au Rwanda de 1967 à 1981. André Guichaoua : professeur de sociologie à Lille et auteur de nombreux articles et livres sur le Rwanda et le Burundi. I1 anime le réseau documentaire international sur la région des Grands Lacs.
Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2006
Objective To reconstruct and analyse mortality trends in children younger than 5 years in sub-Sah... more Objective To reconstruct and analyse mortality trends in children younger than 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa between 1950 and 2000. Methods We selected 66 Demographic and Health Surveys and World Fertility Surveys from 32 African countries for analysis. Death rates were calculated by yearly periods for each survey. When several surveys were available for the same country, overlapping years were combined. Country-specific time series were analysed to identify periods of monotonic trends, whether declining, steady or increasing. We tested changes in trends using a linear logistic model. Findings A quarter of the countries studied had monotonic declining mortality trends: i.e. a smooth health transition. Another quarter had long-term declines with some minor rises over short periods of time. Eight countries had periods of major increases in mortality due to political or economic crises, and in seven countries mortality stopped declining for several years. In eight other countries mortality has risen in recent years as a result of paediatric AIDS. Reconstructed levels and trends were compared with other estimates made by international organizations, usually based on indirect methods. Conclusion Overall, major progress in child survival was achieved in sub-Saharan Africa during the second half of the twentieth century. However, transition has occurred more slowly than expected, with an average decline of 1.8% per year. Additionally, transition was chaotic in many countries. The main causes of mortality increase were political instability, serious economic downturns, and emerging diseases.
World Development, 2006
Trends in under-five mortality were favorable in Zambia in the twelve years following independenc... more Trends in under-five mortality were favorable in Zambia in the twelve years following independence (1964-1975), as a result of favorable political and economic context and generous health, education and social policies, largely financed by the exports of copper minerals, the main economic resource of the country. In 1975, the international prices of copper decreased suddenly, and exports of copper continued to diminish in volume. This created a tremendous economic shock to the country, and seriously affected both the state budget and private income. During the long-lasting economic crisis, income per capita was strongly reduced, and most economic indicators collapsed or were strongly reduced as well: imports, agricultural production, private and public consumption, savings, and industrial investments. The health sector was also affected: health expenditures declined, imports of medical drugs and supplies declined, and as a result of declining salaries some physicians left the country. School attendance was reduced somewhat later, in the 1980's, and had long term effect on the mean level of education of adult women. Under-five mortality increased in the years following the copper crisis, up to a maximum in year 1992, after which under-five mortality went down again, despite a significant impact of HIV/AIDS. A regression model indicates that most of the increase in mortality after discounting for the effect of HIV/AIDS is attributable to the direct and indirect effects of the copper crisis and the declining income. Both trend analysis and regression analysis indicate that mortality in 1992 was more than double what it should have been in the context of a regular health transition and positive economic development. The mortality decline after 1992 seems to be due to the resumption of the health transition, the implementation of new health policies, and continuous investments in health personnel and health infrastructure. These changes occurred in the context of structural adjustment policies. Issues about vulnerability and resilience are discussed in light of economic and political choices made in the earlier periods and recent changes in policies.
Drafts by Albert Eneas Gakusi
In developing countries, evaluation is a recent but growing practice. It has emerged as a key too... more In developing countries, evaluation is a recent but growing practice. It has emerged as a key tool for assessing and measuring outcomes and impacts in order to inform policy makers and donors about the effectiveness of projects, programs and policies. Evaluation is particularly crucial in Sub-Saharan Africa, because of the disappointing economic performances over the past decades of most countries and the mixed effects of aid. The paper critically assess the strengths and weaknesses of evaluation with respect to its main objectives, i.e. improving the effectiveness of development projects, programs and policies, producing and improving knowledge, and enhancing accountability of policy-makers and donor agencies. The paper contends that evaluations may exhibit limited effectiveness in many situations, because of different factors, such as the weak relevance of evaluation findings, weaknesses in implementing lessons learnt and recommendations when they are relevant, problematic methods used to gather evidence, and issues regarding the access to relevant information. It argues that the objectives of evaluation are constrained by political economy processes, some of them being embedded in aid practices. These processes generate paradoxes regarding the credibility and effectiveness of evaluation: evaluations that are driven by donors and policy-makers may be well-informed and relevant to them, but may be less credible, as they may reflect their interests, which may not be congruent with those of the beneficiaries. Symmetrically, evaluations that are conducted by independent agencies may be more credible in terms of accuracy and conceptual depth: however, they may exhibit information failures, be irrelevant to donors' and policy-makers' interests and be powerless and ineffective in implementing changes in policies. These constraints on evaluation are examined via an analytical framework relying on the economic theories that have long analyzed the concepts of credibility and independence. Despite these limitations, evaluation is still a useful tool, especially when it appropriately and rigorously documents facts. Evaluation results may be useful, but not necessarily for their intended objectives: in particular, they may contribute to the development of democratic institutions. Evaluation effectiveness can be improved, in particular in relying and enhancing local capacities.
Alors que la plupart des etudes demo-economiques sont menees dans le cadre national, cette etude ... more Alors que la plupart des etudes demo-economiques sont menees dans le cadre national, cette etude introduit la dimension internationale dans le debat. En-dehors des discussions partisanes pour le libre-echangisme ou le nationalisme economique, elle tente de mesurer les determinants et les effets structurels de l'ouverture economique des pays de l'Afrique subsaharienne.
Making Finance Work for Africa, 2022
This note aims to briefly present some key aspects of access to finance in Africa, which includes... more This note aims to briefly present some key aspects of access to finance in Africa, which includes: the derisking phenomenon and its implications on trade finance, the low level of access to finance, the long-term financing, the renewal of interest in development banks, the regulatory and supervision capacity, and the coronavirus and its implications for the financial sector.
afdb.org
Page 1. Challenges and Opportunities of Evaluation in Fostering Development in Sub-Saharan Africa... more Page 1. Challenges and Opportunities of Evaluation in Fostering Development in Sub-Saharan Africa Albert-Enéas Gakusi Principal Evaluation Officer, Operations Evaluation Department (OPEV), African Development Bank. Email: a.gakusi@afdb.org ...
La plupart du temps, les relations entre l'economie et la demographie sont abordees dans le c... more La plupart du temps, les relations entre l'economie et la demographie sont abordees dans le cadre national a l'instar des deux plus grands modeles macro-demographiques, ceux de Malthus et de Boserup, opposes dans leur conception sur la nature et sur les consequences des rapports entre la population et l'economie. Or, on doit s'etonner qu'a l'heure du village planetaire, les recherches sur les facteurs demographiques soient encore enfermees dans ce cadre comme si le monde exterieur n'existait pas. Par consequent, cette etude part de l'idee que l'evolution economique ou demographique d'un pays ou d'une region repond non seulement a une dynamique interne mais aussi qu'elle depend de son environnement international.
World Development, 2006
Trends in under-five mortality were favorable in Zambia in the twelve years following independenc... more Trends in under-five mortality were favorable in Zambia in the twelve years following independence (1964-1975), as a result of favorable political and economic context and generous health, education and social policies, largely financed by the exports of copper minerals, the main economic resource of the country. In 1975, the international prices of copper decreased suddenly, and exports of copper continued to diminish in volume. This created a tremendous economic shock to the country, and seriously affected both the state budget and private income. During the long-lasting economic crisis, income per capita was strongly reduced, and most economic indicators collapsed or were strongly reduced as well: imports, agricultural production, private and public consumption, savings, and industrial investments. The health sector was also affected: health expenditures declined, imports of medical drugs and supplies declined, and as a result of declining salaries some physicians left the country. School attendance was reduced somewhat later, in the 1980's, and had long term effect on the mean level of education of adult women. Under-five mortality increased in the years following the copper crisis, up to a maximum in year 1992, after which under-five mortality went down again, despite a significant impact of HIV/AIDS. A regression model indicates that most of the increase in mortality after discounting for the effect of HIV/AIDS is attributable to the direct and indirect effects of the copper crisis and the declining income. Both trend analysis and regression analysis indicate that mortality in 1992 was more than double what it should have been in the context of a regular health transition and positive economic development. The mortality decline after 1992 seems to be due to the resumption of the health transition, the implementation of new health policies, and continuous investments in health personnel and health infrastructure. These changes occurred in the context of structural adjustment policies. Issues about vulnerability and resilience are discussed in light of economic and political choices made in the earlier periods and recent changes in policies.
The European Journal of Development Research, 2007
afdb.org
Page 1. Third Annual African Economic Conference on Globalization, Institutions and Economic Dev... more Page 1. Third Annual African Economic Conference on Globalization, Institutions and Economic Development of Africa Tunis 12-14 November 2008 African Education Challenges and Policy Responses: Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the African Development Bank* ...
African Development Review, 2010
... who provided invaluable inputs to the Review: David Berk, Joseph Bredie; Victoria Elliot, MP ... more ... who provided invaluable inputs to the Review: David Berk, Joseph Bredie; Victoria Elliot, MP Madhusoodhanan; Paschal Mihyo; and Ronald Ridker. Joseph Mouanda, Evaluation officer, also contributed to the analysis of the education portfolio review. Professor John Anyanwu ...
African Development Review, 2005
Page 1. Chocs Externes, Gestion de l'Etat et Mortalite´ des Enfants en Zambie de 1964 a` 199... more Page 1. Chocs Externes, Gestion de l'Etat et Mortalite´ des Enfants en Zambie de 1964 a` 1998 Albert-Ene´as Gakusi, Michel Garenne et Guillaume Gaullier* Re´sume´: La mortalite´ des enfants e´tait en baisse en Zambie, de ...
La plupart du temps, les relations entre l'economie et la demographie sont abordees dans le c... more La plupart du temps, les relations entre l'economie et la demographie sont abordees dans le cadre national a l'instar des deux plus grands modeles macro-demographiques, ceux de Malthus et de Boserup, opposes dans leur conception sur la nature et sur les consequences des rapports entre la population et l'economie. Or, on doit s'etonner qu'a l'heure du village planetaire, les recherches sur les facteurs demographiques soient encore enfermees dans ce cadre comme si le monde exterieur n'existait pas. Par consequent, cette etude part de l'idee que l'evolution economique ou demographique d'un pays ou d'une region repond non seulement a une dynamique interne mais aussi qu'elle depend de son environnement international.
La réalisation de cette étude a bénéficié du soutien du directeur du CEPED, Monsieur Alain Lery, ... more La réalisation de cette étude a bénéficié du soutien du directeur du CEPED, Monsieur Alain Lery, pour les entretiens avec des personnes ayant une connaissance profonde des faits qui ont marqué l'histoire politique, économique et sociale du Rwanda. Tout en étant seuls responsables de l'interprétation des informations, nous tenons à remercier les personnes suivantes pour leurs renseignements et commentaires : Marcel Colson : inspecteur de l'enseignement secondaire au Rwanda de 1967 à 1981. André Guichaoua : professeur de sociologie à Lille et auteur de nombreux articles et livres sur le Rwanda et le Burundi. I1 anime le réseau documentaire international sur la région des Grands Lacs.
Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 2006
Objective To reconstruct and analyse mortality trends in children younger than 5 years in sub-Sah... more Objective To reconstruct and analyse mortality trends in children younger than 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa between 1950 and 2000. Methods We selected 66 Demographic and Health Surveys and World Fertility Surveys from 32 African countries for analysis. Death rates were calculated by yearly periods for each survey. When several surveys were available for the same country, overlapping years were combined. Country-specific time series were analysed to identify periods of monotonic trends, whether declining, steady or increasing. We tested changes in trends using a linear logistic model. Findings A quarter of the countries studied had monotonic declining mortality trends: i.e. a smooth health transition. Another quarter had long-term declines with some minor rises over short periods of time. Eight countries had periods of major increases in mortality due to political or economic crises, and in seven countries mortality stopped declining for several years. In eight other countries mortality has risen in recent years as a result of paediatric AIDS. Reconstructed levels and trends were compared with other estimates made by international organizations, usually based on indirect methods. Conclusion Overall, major progress in child survival was achieved in sub-Saharan Africa during the second half of the twentieth century. However, transition has occurred more slowly than expected, with an average decline of 1.8% per year. Additionally, transition was chaotic in many countries. The main causes of mortality increase were political instability, serious economic downturns, and emerging diseases.
World Development, 2006
Trends in under-five mortality were favorable in Zambia in the twelve years following independenc... more Trends in under-five mortality were favorable in Zambia in the twelve years following independence (1964-1975), as a result of favorable political and economic context and generous health, education and social policies, largely financed by the exports of copper minerals, the main economic resource of the country. In 1975, the international prices of copper decreased suddenly, and exports of copper continued to diminish in volume. This created a tremendous economic shock to the country, and seriously affected both the state budget and private income. During the long-lasting economic crisis, income per capita was strongly reduced, and most economic indicators collapsed or were strongly reduced as well: imports, agricultural production, private and public consumption, savings, and industrial investments. The health sector was also affected: health expenditures declined, imports of medical drugs and supplies declined, and as a result of declining salaries some physicians left the country. School attendance was reduced somewhat later, in the 1980's, and had long term effect on the mean level of education of adult women. Under-five mortality increased in the years following the copper crisis, up to a maximum in year 1992, after which under-five mortality went down again, despite a significant impact of HIV/AIDS. A regression model indicates that most of the increase in mortality after discounting for the effect of HIV/AIDS is attributable to the direct and indirect effects of the copper crisis and the declining income. Both trend analysis and regression analysis indicate that mortality in 1992 was more than double what it should have been in the context of a regular health transition and positive economic development. The mortality decline after 1992 seems to be due to the resumption of the health transition, the implementation of new health policies, and continuous investments in health personnel and health infrastructure. These changes occurred in the context of structural adjustment policies. Issues about vulnerability and resilience are discussed in light of economic and political choices made in the earlier periods and recent changes in policies.
In developing countries, evaluation is a recent but growing practice. It has emerged as a key too... more In developing countries, evaluation is a recent but growing practice. It has emerged as a key tool for assessing and measuring outcomes and impacts in order to inform policy makers and donors about the effectiveness of projects, programs and policies. Evaluation is particularly crucial in Sub-Saharan Africa, because of the disappointing economic performances over the past decades of most countries and the mixed effects of aid. The paper critically assess the strengths and weaknesses of evaluation with respect to its main objectives, i.e. improving the effectiveness of development projects, programs and policies, producing and improving knowledge, and enhancing accountability of policy-makers and donor agencies. The paper contends that evaluations may exhibit limited effectiveness in many situations, because of different factors, such as the weak relevance of evaluation findings, weaknesses in implementing lessons learnt and recommendations when they are relevant, problematic methods used to gather evidence, and issues regarding the access to relevant information. It argues that the objectives of evaluation are constrained by political economy processes, some of them being embedded in aid practices. These processes generate paradoxes regarding the credibility and effectiveness of evaluation: evaluations that are driven by donors and policy-makers may be well-informed and relevant to them, but may be less credible, as they may reflect their interests, which may not be congruent with those of the beneficiaries. Symmetrically, evaluations that are conducted by independent agencies may be more credible in terms of accuracy and conceptual depth: however, they may exhibit information failures, be irrelevant to donors' and policy-makers' interests and be powerless and ineffective in implementing changes in policies. These constraints on evaluation are examined via an analytical framework relying on the economic theories that have long analyzed the concepts of credibility and independence. Despite these limitations, evaluation is still a useful tool, especially when it appropriately and rigorously documents facts. Evaluation results may be useful, but not necessarily for their intended objectives: in particular, they may contribute to the development of democratic institutions. Evaluation effectiveness can be improved, in particular in relying and enhancing local capacities.