A. Pearman - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by A. Pearman
The Economics of Urban Freight Transport, 1981
In Chapter 2 we discussed how the volume and pattern of freight operations is likely to be influe... more In Chapter 2 we discussed how the volume and pattern of freight operations is likely to be influenced strongly by the interplay of economic factors. One of the chief of these economic factors is cost. In this chapter, we shall be concerned with the costs of urban freight movement. The costs which will be discussed, however, are not just those which directly influence freight movements (for example, fuel costs), but also those which freight movement itself imposes on urban society and which may not, for a number of reasons, feed back fully as payments to be made by the supplier or the user of the services concerned.
This paper offers both a review and critique of the methods used to evaluate travel time savings ... more This paper offers both a review and critique of the methods used to evaluate travel time savings in less-developed countries and the subsequent use made of such evaluations in transport investment appraisal. The particular problems of evaluation in the context of a developing economy are explored, together with an examination of previous attempts at empirical work designed to place a money value on potential time savings. Further, the difficulties of employing such values within the various frameworks of transport project evaluation are considered (both in terms of rural and urban transport schemes). Specific attention is given to distributional and equity implications of alternative approaches towards the incorporation of time savings. The paper offers no new empirical work but rather attempts a review of the "state-of-the-art" from an outsider's position, and provides a number of suggestions and comments which should improve the consistency of future work in this area. (Author/TRRL)
Transportation Research Part A: General, 1980
ABSTRACT The first part of this paper argues that the variable ‘cars per household’, as well as t... more ABSTRACT The first part of this paper argues that the variable ‘cars per household’, as well as the proportion of households owning more than a given number of cars, should be modelled by sigmoid functions with finite saturation levels. Next, a summary and critique of the work of the Regional Highway Traffic Model, group is presented. Problems relating to choice of functional form, interaction of effects, and the usefulness of the explanatory variable ‘Car Purchasing Income’ are discussed.This leads to an analysis of the concept of a saturation level, with a caution against using external data to determine it when the true functional form of the car ownership growth path is unknown. Following this, Transport and Road Research Laboratory work is discussed and its limitations highlighted. Data for the period 1953–1974 is reworked yielding the conclusion that there is no evidence that growth in this period has been non-logistic. This implies that previous overpredictions by TRRL were due to incorrect parameter estimates, rather than the choice of the wrong model form.
Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1977
The Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1980
Journal of Management Studies, 1976
The aim of the project on which this report is based is to develop approaches to the measurement ... more The aim of the project on which this report is based is to develop approaches to the measurement of individuals' evaluations of the constructional and operational consequences of a road scheme which meet these requirements. Two particular research themes form the background to the project. The first is to provide a fuller conceptual analysis of the ways in which people evaluate the good and bad aspects of major new road schemes. In particular, the project sought to examine the role of beliefs and micro-social processes in the formation of the attitudes which people hold and how these relate to their actual experiences of the road scheme. From this perspective an individual's "evaluation" of a road scheme can be theorized at many levels, from the merely physical, such as the annoying effect of noise, to the role of friends and neighbours in influencing the status of different forms of information or the formation of views held. Considering both the physical and soci...
PLANNING AND TRANSPORT RESEARCH AND COMPUTATION, 1991
This report deals with road construction, lorry traffic, project appraisal, attitudinal data, rep... more This report deals with road construction, lorry traffic, project appraisal, attitudinal data, repertory grid multi-attribute utility theory, uncertainty, beliefs. This paper is concerned with the use of survey techniques to elicit information about residents' beliefs and perceived fears concerning the construction of a private haulage road. The first section discusses some theoretical issues in the measurement of attitudinal responses as an input to the planning, design and management of new road schemes. Two major issues are identified. Firstly, in order to use such data in the selection of project options it is important to establish the relationship between individuals' prior and posterior valuations of different environmental attributes, about which they are inevitably uncertain. Little is known about how such valuations change over time. The second issue relevant to the design and management of a new road scheme relates to the dimension of attitude that is measured in s...
In recent years there have been frequent expressions of concern about the influence of uncertaint... more In recent years there have been frequent expressions of concern about the influence of uncertainty on transport project design and appraisal. As yet, however, the practical consequences have been limited to small scale sensitivity analysis, together with a small number of wider-ranging applications to major projects, mostly outside the UK. This paper reports progress in a joint serc/halcrow fox project designed to develop practical procedures for taking account of uncertainty in transport project appraisal. The research is being pursued within a consultancy in order to ensure that its academic elements are brought face-to-face with the realities of practical work. Previous experience suggests that the factors which most substantially undermine the correctness of policy recommendations often result from major unanticipated shifts in the external environment in which the transport system has to operate, e.g. Curtailed investment funding, changes in gdp growth, etc. In turn, this impli...
This paper sets out the principal conclusions of a recently completed research project, jointly f... more This paper sets out the principal conclusions of a recently completed research project, jointly financed by halcrow fox and associates and SERC. The concern of the project has been to establish workable guidelines whereby a consulting organisation or similar body charged with project appraisal can determine whether explicit analysis of uncertainty is likely to be worthwhile and, if so, what method of incorporating uncertainty in its analysis would be most appropriate to the circumstances of the appraisal under consideration. The paper describes briefly the project cycle through which individual appraisals are typically undertaken and highlights the inherent danger of becoming committed to a project through failure to take a broad enough view of future possibilities at an early stage in the planning cycle. At its worst, we argue, conventional planning can proceed from optimistic assumptions about the future, without a rigorous identification of existing problems, to a pre-conceived h...
The Economics of Urban Freight Transport, 1981
Most textbooks of economic theory start by attempting to define what economics is about. Although... more Most textbooks of economic theory start by attempting to define what economics is about. Although it is unlikely that any very brief statement will do full justice to the subject, it is, nevertheless, a useful way to begin a discussion of economics, and in our case, a discussion of how some of the basic ideas developed in economic theory can throw some light on the very complex characteristics of urban freight transport. Economics is essentially concerned with how individuals and groups of individuals make choices about how they allocate scarce resources to different forms of production, and also about how they distribute what is produced for consumption between different groups and between now and the future. Central to the act of production is the idea that certain groups are prepared to supply commodities for others. Central to the act of consumption is the concept of demand. A great deal of insight can be gained merely by formalising the interaction between supply and demand for a given commodity and analysing the behaviour of the resulting market. This is undertaken in Section 2.2. Then, in Section 2.3, we examine consumer behaviour in order to gain a deeper understanding of demand and in the following section we examine in more detail the concept of cost, since this is a major influence on supply. Section 2.5 investigates how firms will behave when they are operating in different types of market; and, finally, Section 2.6 looks at the theory of second-best, which is just one part of the question of how society may want to adjust the outcome of the basic working of the economy in order to improve the general level of social welfare. Further treatment of welfare economics is given in Section 6.1.
The Economics of Urban Freight Transport, 1981
In the previous chapters we have been concerned with setting out details of the nature of the urb... more In the previous chapters we have been concerned with setting out details of the nature of the urban freight transport market and with outlining an economic and operational framework within which its performance may be studied. This chapter is somewhat different. Whereas in the other sections we have been concerned with methods of analysis and with describing current trends and developments in urban goods vehicle movements, in the following pages we seek to consider the future direction in which freight transport is likely to move. We are not concerned so much with pure speculation but rather attempt to assess the likely long-term effects of measures which have already been taken and of trends already under way.
The Economics of Urban Freight Transport, 1981
There is little need to re-emphasise that the demand for freight services is derived in nature an... more There is little need to re-emphasise that the demand for freight services is derived in nature and that, in consequence, any consideration of demand cannot be treated in isolation from the demand for the final products carried. In this chapter, we concentrate on demand and consider in detail just how the demand for freight transport is generated and how planners and economists attempt to analyse this demand. Because freight transport is closely interrelated with land-use patterns, it is important when considering the demand for freight services to consider at the same time the influences affecting industrial location and distribution decisions. In doing this, we immediately return to one of the oldest and most fundamental problems of applied economics: the identification of the demand relationship and its separation from the supply schedule (see Working, 1927). Not only are there difficulties within the freight sector itself (e.g. does an increase in the amount of goods carried result from an increase in demand or an outward shift in supply?), but the derived nature of demand and the involved interaction between transport and land-use add further complexities impossible to disentangle completely in the real world.
In this paper, we consider the range of environmental effects of roads and ways of valuing them i... more In this paper, we consider the range of environmental effects of roads and ways of valuing them in money terms. We conclude that environmental effects should be divided into strategic and local. The former, which are largely ignored by current appraisal practice, should be considered as part of an appraisal of the entire programme of road schemes in the course of the consideration of transport strategy. Local effects are dealt with in the Manual of Environmental Appraisal, but the list of effects there and advice on their treatment needs amplification. We consider that techniques for the monetary valuation of environmental effects have improved greatly in recent years, and there remains considerable unexploited potential for the use of stated preference techniques. Nevertheless, we do not think it sensible to suppose that all environmental effects could or should be incorporated in a single Net Present Value calculation; rather we see a potential for the further application of decis...
Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board
Objective of this book is to provide an examination of the ways in which economic theory may be a... more Objective of this book is to provide an examination of the ways in which economic theory may be applied to transport problems. Discusses a.o.: the development and state of transport economics; theory and practice of road pricing; the assessment of technical change; shipping conferences. Gives short concluding comments on the future.
Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board
Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Application of Economic Analysis to Transport... more Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Application of Economic Analysis to Transportation Problems.
Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 1996
Water shortage in Jordan is becoming acute, with limited available water and financial resources.... more Water shortage in Jordan is becoming acute, with limited available water and financial resources. With the objective of achieving sustainable development, the Jordan Government is faced with the need to make the best use of these resources. To balance current needs and demands, taking into account the possibility of limited investment in the future, the current Jordanian investment programme (1992–1998) contains various national objectives and constraints to be met. The requirement for this study arises from the need for reliable methodology to select and rank water development projects according to different objectives (criteria). Multicriteria analysis is a realistic approach to this complex problem. In particular, the PROMETHEE method is well adapted to. Its flexibility enables the Decision-Maker to express his preferences more precisely. In this paper the problem is formulated, criteria are presented and quantified, and a partial and complete ranking of projects is obtained by applying the PROMETHEE method to rank a sample of 13 water development projects. The results are discussed and the computational results are given as a step towards the final objective which is a complete ranking of all water sector projects in Jordan taking into account the full range of different constraints, (ie, financial (initial cost, operation and maintenance) and regional development).
The Economics of Urban Freight Transport, 1981
In Chapter 2 we discussed how the volume and pattern of freight operations is likely to be influe... more In Chapter 2 we discussed how the volume and pattern of freight operations is likely to be influenced strongly by the interplay of economic factors. One of the chief of these economic factors is cost. In this chapter, we shall be concerned with the costs of urban freight movement. The costs which will be discussed, however, are not just those which directly influence freight movements (for example, fuel costs), but also those which freight movement itself imposes on urban society and which may not, for a number of reasons, feed back fully as payments to be made by the supplier or the user of the services concerned.
This paper offers both a review and critique of the methods used to evaluate travel time savings ... more This paper offers both a review and critique of the methods used to evaluate travel time savings in less-developed countries and the subsequent use made of such evaluations in transport investment appraisal. The particular problems of evaluation in the context of a developing economy are explored, together with an examination of previous attempts at empirical work designed to place a money value on potential time savings. Further, the difficulties of employing such values within the various frameworks of transport project evaluation are considered (both in terms of rural and urban transport schemes). Specific attention is given to distributional and equity implications of alternative approaches towards the incorporation of time savings. The paper offers no new empirical work but rather attempts a review of the "state-of-the-art" from an outsider's position, and provides a number of suggestions and comments which should improve the consistency of future work in this area. (Author/TRRL)
Transportation Research Part A: General, 1980
ABSTRACT The first part of this paper argues that the variable ‘cars per household’, as well as t... more ABSTRACT The first part of this paper argues that the variable ‘cars per household’, as well as the proportion of households owning more than a given number of cars, should be modelled by sigmoid functions with finite saturation levels. Next, a summary and critique of the work of the Regional Highway Traffic Model, group is presented. Problems relating to choice of functional form, interaction of effects, and the usefulness of the explanatory variable ‘Car Purchasing Income’ are discussed.This leads to an analysis of the concept of a saturation level, with a caution against using external data to determine it when the true functional form of the car ownership growth path is unknown. Following this, Transport and Road Research Laboratory work is discussed and its limitations highlighted. Data for the period 1953–1974 is reworked yielding the conclusion that there is no evidence that growth in this period has been non-logistic. This implies that previous overpredictions by TRRL were due to incorrect parameter estimates, rather than the choice of the wrong model form.
Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1977
The Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1980
Journal of Management Studies, 1976
The aim of the project on which this report is based is to develop approaches to the measurement ... more The aim of the project on which this report is based is to develop approaches to the measurement of individuals' evaluations of the constructional and operational consequences of a road scheme which meet these requirements. Two particular research themes form the background to the project. The first is to provide a fuller conceptual analysis of the ways in which people evaluate the good and bad aspects of major new road schemes. In particular, the project sought to examine the role of beliefs and micro-social processes in the formation of the attitudes which people hold and how these relate to their actual experiences of the road scheme. From this perspective an individual's "evaluation" of a road scheme can be theorized at many levels, from the merely physical, such as the annoying effect of noise, to the role of friends and neighbours in influencing the status of different forms of information or the formation of views held. Considering both the physical and soci...
PLANNING AND TRANSPORT RESEARCH AND COMPUTATION, 1991
This report deals with road construction, lorry traffic, project appraisal, attitudinal data, rep... more This report deals with road construction, lorry traffic, project appraisal, attitudinal data, repertory grid multi-attribute utility theory, uncertainty, beliefs. This paper is concerned with the use of survey techniques to elicit information about residents' beliefs and perceived fears concerning the construction of a private haulage road. The first section discusses some theoretical issues in the measurement of attitudinal responses as an input to the planning, design and management of new road schemes. Two major issues are identified. Firstly, in order to use such data in the selection of project options it is important to establish the relationship between individuals' prior and posterior valuations of different environmental attributes, about which they are inevitably uncertain. Little is known about how such valuations change over time. The second issue relevant to the design and management of a new road scheme relates to the dimension of attitude that is measured in s...
In recent years there have been frequent expressions of concern about the influence of uncertaint... more In recent years there have been frequent expressions of concern about the influence of uncertainty on transport project design and appraisal. As yet, however, the practical consequences have been limited to small scale sensitivity analysis, together with a small number of wider-ranging applications to major projects, mostly outside the UK. This paper reports progress in a joint serc/halcrow fox project designed to develop practical procedures for taking account of uncertainty in transport project appraisal. The research is being pursued within a consultancy in order to ensure that its academic elements are brought face-to-face with the realities of practical work. Previous experience suggests that the factors which most substantially undermine the correctness of policy recommendations often result from major unanticipated shifts in the external environment in which the transport system has to operate, e.g. Curtailed investment funding, changes in gdp growth, etc. In turn, this impli...
This paper sets out the principal conclusions of a recently completed research project, jointly f... more This paper sets out the principal conclusions of a recently completed research project, jointly financed by halcrow fox and associates and SERC. The concern of the project has been to establish workable guidelines whereby a consulting organisation or similar body charged with project appraisal can determine whether explicit analysis of uncertainty is likely to be worthwhile and, if so, what method of incorporating uncertainty in its analysis would be most appropriate to the circumstances of the appraisal under consideration. The paper describes briefly the project cycle through which individual appraisals are typically undertaken and highlights the inherent danger of becoming committed to a project through failure to take a broad enough view of future possibilities at an early stage in the planning cycle. At its worst, we argue, conventional planning can proceed from optimistic assumptions about the future, without a rigorous identification of existing problems, to a pre-conceived h...
The Economics of Urban Freight Transport, 1981
Most textbooks of economic theory start by attempting to define what economics is about. Although... more Most textbooks of economic theory start by attempting to define what economics is about. Although it is unlikely that any very brief statement will do full justice to the subject, it is, nevertheless, a useful way to begin a discussion of economics, and in our case, a discussion of how some of the basic ideas developed in economic theory can throw some light on the very complex characteristics of urban freight transport. Economics is essentially concerned with how individuals and groups of individuals make choices about how they allocate scarce resources to different forms of production, and also about how they distribute what is produced for consumption between different groups and between now and the future. Central to the act of production is the idea that certain groups are prepared to supply commodities for others. Central to the act of consumption is the concept of demand. A great deal of insight can be gained merely by formalising the interaction between supply and demand for a given commodity and analysing the behaviour of the resulting market. This is undertaken in Section 2.2. Then, in Section 2.3, we examine consumer behaviour in order to gain a deeper understanding of demand and in the following section we examine in more detail the concept of cost, since this is a major influence on supply. Section 2.5 investigates how firms will behave when they are operating in different types of market; and, finally, Section 2.6 looks at the theory of second-best, which is just one part of the question of how society may want to adjust the outcome of the basic working of the economy in order to improve the general level of social welfare. Further treatment of welfare economics is given in Section 6.1.
The Economics of Urban Freight Transport, 1981
In the previous chapters we have been concerned with setting out details of the nature of the urb... more In the previous chapters we have been concerned with setting out details of the nature of the urban freight transport market and with outlining an economic and operational framework within which its performance may be studied. This chapter is somewhat different. Whereas in the other sections we have been concerned with methods of analysis and with describing current trends and developments in urban goods vehicle movements, in the following pages we seek to consider the future direction in which freight transport is likely to move. We are not concerned so much with pure speculation but rather attempt to assess the likely long-term effects of measures which have already been taken and of trends already under way.
The Economics of Urban Freight Transport, 1981
There is little need to re-emphasise that the demand for freight services is derived in nature an... more There is little need to re-emphasise that the demand for freight services is derived in nature and that, in consequence, any consideration of demand cannot be treated in isolation from the demand for the final products carried. In this chapter, we concentrate on demand and consider in detail just how the demand for freight transport is generated and how planners and economists attempt to analyse this demand. Because freight transport is closely interrelated with land-use patterns, it is important when considering the demand for freight services to consider at the same time the influences affecting industrial location and distribution decisions. In doing this, we immediately return to one of the oldest and most fundamental problems of applied economics: the identification of the demand relationship and its separation from the supply schedule (see Working, 1927). Not only are there difficulties within the freight sector itself (e.g. does an increase in the amount of goods carried result from an increase in demand or an outward shift in supply?), but the derived nature of demand and the involved interaction between transport and land-use add further complexities impossible to disentangle completely in the real world.
In this paper, we consider the range of environmental effects of roads and ways of valuing them i... more In this paper, we consider the range of environmental effects of roads and ways of valuing them in money terms. We conclude that environmental effects should be divided into strategic and local. The former, which are largely ignored by current appraisal practice, should be considered as part of an appraisal of the entire programme of road schemes in the course of the consideration of transport strategy. Local effects are dealt with in the Manual of Environmental Appraisal, but the list of effects there and advice on their treatment needs amplification. We consider that techniques for the monetary valuation of environmental effects have improved greatly in recent years, and there remains considerable unexploited potential for the use of stated preference techniques. Nevertheless, we do not think it sensible to suppose that all environmental effects could or should be incorporated in a single Net Present Value calculation; rather we see a potential for the further application of decis...
Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board
Objective of this book is to provide an examination of the ways in which economic theory may be a... more Objective of this book is to provide an examination of the ways in which economic theory may be applied to transport problems. Discusses a.o.: the development and state of transport economics; theory and practice of road pricing; the assessment of technical change; shipping conferences. Gives short concluding comments on the future.
Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board
Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Application of Economic Analysis to Transport... more Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Application of Economic Analysis to Transportation Problems.
Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 1996
Water shortage in Jordan is becoming acute, with limited available water and financial resources.... more Water shortage in Jordan is becoming acute, with limited available water and financial resources. With the objective of achieving sustainable development, the Jordan Government is faced with the need to make the best use of these resources. To balance current needs and demands, taking into account the possibility of limited investment in the future, the current Jordanian investment programme (1992–1998) contains various national objectives and constraints to be met. The requirement for this study arises from the need for reliable methodology to select and rank water development projects according to different objectives (criteria). Multicriteria analysis is a realistic approach to this complex problem. In particular, the PROMETHEE method is well adapted to. Its flexibility enables the Decision-Maker to express his preferences more precisely. In this paper the problem is formulated, criteria are presented and quantified, and a partial and complete ranking of projects is obtained by applying the PROMETHEE method to rank a sample of 13 water development projects. The results are discussed and the computational results are given as a step towards the final objective which is a complete ranking of all water sector projects in Jordan taking into account the full range of different constraints, (ie, financial (initial cost, operation and maintenance) and regional development).