ASLI ALICI - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by ASLI ALICI

Social Science Research Network, Dec 31, 2022

The type of prudential regulations commonly used in developing economies aims directly to control... more The type of prudential regulations commonly used in developing economies aims directly to control of financial aggregates, such as liquidity expansion and credit growth, namely capital requirements with risk categories used in industrial countries. The results achieved in the last two decades have clearly indicated, contrary to policy intentions, the very limited usefulness of those policies in helping those countries to contain the risks involved with more liberalized financial systems; especially in episodes of sudden reversal of capital flows. In the case of Turkey, the new liberal economic policy began to be implemented in January 1980, which aimed at integration with world markets by establishing a free market economy. As a reflection of this policy, the 1980s witnessed continuous legal, structural and institutional changes and developments in the Turkish banking sector. During these years, Turkey experienced two very severe financial crisis one in early 1994 and the other one in early 2001. In mid-1994, Turkey adopted an IMF based stand-by agreement, and managed to calm the severe economic crises. However, macroeconomic instability continued until the late 1990s. In December 1999, Turkey signed a threeyear standby agreement with IMF. This program had failed due mainly to a major banking sector crisis and Turkey has started another stabilization program backed by IMF which is still being implemented in Turkey. With this new program, an extensive streamlining plan, Banking Sector Restructuring Program was started and announced to the public in May 2001. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of financial regulations adopted in Turkey in achieving financial stability throughout the liberalization process. In this framework, in the light of developments in the Turkish economy the recommendations of the Basel Committee in terms of liquidity and capital requirements are assessed, especially in controlling the adverse impact of volatile short run capital flows on the financial systems of developing countries.

After the transition to flexible exchange rate regime in Turkey the question of how to implement ... more After the transition to flexible exchange rate regime in Turkey the question of how to implement the monetary policy still maintains its importance The transition to inflation targeting as a new monetary policy implementation that is the use of determined inflation target as nominal anchor requires inflation forecasting models with high level credibility in application This study is concerned with putting forth the leading indicator variables of inflation in Turkey After reviewing the prerequisites for transition to inflation targeting a set of indicator variables of inflation are determined by using VAR analysis Whatever the criticisms against the VAR methodology in choosing the VAR analysis various aspects of it played a crucial role such as having no constraints over the structure of the relation presenting dynamic relations and having no difficulty in deciding which variable is internal and which external Due to the prospective feature of the inflation target forward looking var...

Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 2017

This study examines whether the stock prices of Turkish tourism companies respond to growth in 8 ... more This study examines whether the stock prices of Turkish tourism companies respond to growth in 8 macroeconomic variables namely, consumer price index, imports, exchange rate, consumer confidence index, oil price, money supply, foreign tourist arrivals, and monthly stock market return. By applying the Granger causality procedure, we find that growth in consumer confidence index and imports could Granger cause tourism companies' stock returns among eight macro factors in Turkey from 2005 to 2013 period. After considering the structural break that occurred in 2007, the pre-break results indicate that consumer confidence index, exchange rate, and foreign tourist arrivals could Granger cause tourism stock returns. However, the results in the post-structural break period reveal that only growth in oil prices and imports are significant.

Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Nov 27, 2010

Bu çalışmada, para talebinin yapısına ilişkin ampirik tahminlerin para politikası tasarımındaki y... more Bu çalışmada, para talebinin yapısına ilişkin ampirik tahminlerin para politikası tasarımındaki yeri dikkate alınarak Türkiye için para talebi fonksiyonunun uzun dönemde istikrarlılığı 1987-2005 dönemi için kalıntıların incelenmesine dayalı eş-bütünleme analizi tekniği kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Türkiye'de esnek döviz kuru uygulamasına geçilmesinin ardından, para politikasının ne şekilde uygulanacağı sorusu önemini korumuştur. Bu çerçevede, özellikle finansal serbestleşme süreci ile birlikte para talebi ve para çarpanındaki istikrarsızlık nedeniyle para politikası açısından parasal tabanının çapa olma niteliğini kaybettiği konusunda çeşitli değerlendirmeler bulunmaktadır. Çalışmada, eş-bütünleme analizinin ortaya koyduğu para talebinin istikrarsızlığına ilişkin sonuçlar verilerek Merkez Bankası tarafından uygulamasına başlanılan enflasyon hedeflemesinin Türkiye'de başarılı olabilmesi için gerekli koşullar tartışılmakta, uygulamanın olası fayda ve riskleri irdelenmektedir.

The relationship between “high” government budget and “high” current account deficits have been e... more The relationship between “high” government budget and “high” current account deficits have been explored in several studies by the so-called name “twin deficits”. Conventional Keynesian twin deficits proposition mainly states that an increase in government budget deficit leads to an increase in the current account deficit. But it is also possible if Ricardian equivalence hypothesis is valid the two deficits may not be related at all. In the last two decades despite all stabilization efforts, Turkish economy continued to run high budget deficits hand in hand with trade deficits. The persistent and coinciding fiscal and external trade deficits in Turkey have been in the economic spotlight largely because of its important policy implications for the long-term economic progress. The aim of this study is to examine whether higher budget deficits lead to greater current account deficits in Turkey between 1987 - 2006. This paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the ...

Turkey liberalized its capital accounts in 1989, taking an important step towards integrating its... more Turkey liberalized its capital accounts in 1989, taking an important step towards integrating its economy with the global economic system and has also undergone significant financial sector reforms since then. Turkish economy, as a result of over-dependence on short-term capital flows and speculative attacks experienced recurrent financial crises in the post-capital account liberalization era with costly consequences for the real economy; leading to slow growth and a more regressive income distributional profile. This paper analyses the dynamic causal relationship between financial liberalization and income inequality in Turkey during the period 1989.I to 2010.IV. The results indicate that the progress of financial liberalization tends to deteriorate the situation of income inequalities and that there exists a robust long-run relationship between financial liberalization and income inequality in Turkey. Keywords: Financial liberalization, income inequality

Abstract The type of prudential regulations commonly,used indeveloping economies aims directly to... more Abstract The type of prudential regulations commonly,used indeveloping economies aims directly to control of

International Advances in Economic Research, 2006

ABSTRACT Without Abstract

Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2010

... to Fiscal Sustainability Analy-sis: A Case Study of Turkey Since the Crisis of 2001. World B... more ... to Fiscal Sustainability Analy-sis: A Case Study of Turkey Since the Crisis of 2001. World Bank Economic Review 23, no. 1: 119140. Burnside, C. 2005. Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and practice: A Handbook. Washington, DC: World Bank. Cunado, J.; LA Gil-Alana; and F ...

European Trade Study Group (ETSG) fifth annual …, 2003

Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2016

Computational drawbacks regarding the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the widely used PIN ... more Computational drawbacks regarding the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the widely used PIN (probability of informed trading) measure (Easley et al., 1996) heavily distort the findings of a broad literature. Previously proposed methodologies are not free of computational biases mainly because involved problems are not treated accurately and in unity. Upon revealing the mistreatment in commonly used YZ algorithm (Yan and Zhang, 2012), we suggest a remedy for the problem of boundary solutions. Next, we differentiate and focus on another computational issue: "determination of powerful initial value sets". We develop a new algorithm that employs cluster analysis to assign multiple powerful sets of initial values for the MLE function. The analyses of the simulated quarterly datasets reflect that applying the algorithm outperforms the existing methods in accuracy. Most notably, none of the mean estimates on PIN and five intermediary parameters contains significant bias at 1% level. Empirical evidence from BIST-30 Index constituents provides consistent and supportive results. In addition to accuracy concerns, consuming one-seventeenth of the time spent in YZ algorithm, the algorithm is highly applicable by researchers and professionals.