Abbas El-Zein - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Abbas El-Zein
Mollymook, Collingwood and Callala beaches and the communities living near them were identified a... more Mollymook, Collingwood and Callala beaches and the communities living near them were identified as especially vulnerable to sea level rise by the Shoalhaven City Council. A number of possible engineering and management solutions have been identified for mitigating or eliminating the effects of expected flooding and erosion (e.g., sea wall, groyne, beach nourishment), based on guidelines developed by Engineers Australia. However, the question remains as to how to assess and compare the benefits (and not just the costs) of each option. While the cost of designing and implementing these options are reasonably easy to estimate, other environmental and aesthetic costs are more difficult to valuate. Even more challenging is quantifying in monetary terms the benefits of each option. Methods are available in the economic literature for estimating some of these parameters, however, their application requires data and resources that are not always available to local government. In this study, we propose a pragmatic approach (relatively simple yet detailed) which combines a monetary-based probabilistic flood-damage estimation technique with an estimate of non-monetary consequences of an adaptation option using local knowledge and stakeholder consultation. These two types of information (monetary and non-monetary) are combined using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods in order to generate a ranking of engineering adaptation options and assist in decision-making. We illustrate the method by applying to Callala beach in Shoalhaven. First, we calculate respective cost-benefit ratios of each option by simulating the likely effects of a flood event (with multiple probabilities of occurrence or return period) with and without proposed adaptation options, for different scenarios of sea level rise. Specifically, a flood model of Callala is developed using high resolution LiDAR Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data and tested for impacts under different sea level rise scenarios (using IPCC AR5 projections) and their corresponding exceedance probabilities (using Canute sea level rise calculator). Second, we estimate the potential damage to properties and infrastructures (cumulative over time) through flood damage function curves (quantifying the relationship between flood depth and potential damage cost of private properties and public infrastructure). Third, we estimate the non-monetary benefits of each option using a simplified approach, based on stakeholder consultation. Finally, we use two different multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approaches (simple additive weight and outranking methods) for comparison of a number of engineering adaptation options (both hard and soft measures). Results show that, in general, a combination of beach nourishment & groynes is the most preferred option for Callala beach, across all decision analysis methods. Our analyses also show that hard measures such as sea walls tend to perform better in cost-benefit analyses where non-monetary factors such as community preferences, aesthetics and environmental factors are omitted. On the other hand, including these factors through MCDA methods seems to push sea walls down the rank.
In order to develop an adaptation plan for Sea Level Rise (SLR), coastal councils often conduct h... more In order to develop an adaptation plan for Sea Level Rise (SLR), coastal councils often conduct hazard line studies to investigate present and expected future risks on coastal stretches (e.g., beaches) that harbour various types of infrastructures (e.g., roads, sewerage system, water supply system, electricity, telecom etc). Interdependencies of infrastructure components and systems are frequent with disruption of services in one, likely to cascade through the infrastructure network and produce a compound effect on users. To help decision-makers at a local council in prioritising management actions, we developed an analytical vulnerability assessment tool called EVA-INFRA (Environmental Vulnerability Assessment for infrastructures) which starts from the IPCC framework of vulnerability and considers the biophysical impacts of the hazard as well as a measure of its social and institutional dimensions. In this paper, we describe the incorporation of a system dynamics model inside EVA-INFRA that can quantify the cascading effects of disruption of any infrastructure component, leading to a more precise assessment of vulnerability.
We conducted a time-series analysis of 1997-1999 data records of air temperature and all-cause mo... more We conducted a time-series analysis of 1997-1999 data records of air temperature and all-cause mortality in Greater Beirut, using bi-linear Poisson auto-regressive models, and published our findings in the Science of the Total Environment [El-Zein, A.,
Climate change is a driving force behind some recent environmental legislation around the world. ... more Climate change is a driving force behind some recent environmental legislation around the world. Greenhouse gas emission reduction targets have been set in many industrialised countries. A change in current practices of almost all greenhouse-emitting industrial sectors is unavoidable, if the set targets is to be achieved. Although, waste disposal contributes around 3% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in Australia (mainly due to fugitive methane emissions from landfills), the carbon credit and trading scheme set to start in 2010 presents significant challenges and opportunities to municipal solid waste practitioners. Technological advances in waste management, if adopted properly, allow the municipal solid waste sector to act as carbon sink, hence earning tradable carbon credits. However, due to the complexity of the system and its inherent uncertainties, optimizing it for carbon credits may worsen its performance under other criteria. We use an integrated, stochastic multi-criteria decision-making tool that we developed earlier to analyse the carbon credit potential of Sydney municipal solid waste under eleven possible future strategies. We find that the changing legislative environment is likely to make current practices highly non-optimal and increase pressures for a change of waste management strategy.
Participatory environmental management can empower communities and enhance the sustainability of ... more Participatory environmental management can empower communities and enhance the sustainability of environmental interventions. However, existing power structures and inequalities along class, gender, or ethnic lines could prevent part of the community from accessing the full benefits of the intervention. An analysis of determinants of the willingness-to-participate in an environmental intervention in a Beirut neighborhood is conducted. Socioeconomic, health-risk distribution, and perception of community effi-
BMJ (Clinical research ed.), Jan 21, 2006
Discussions leading to the Rio+20 UN conference have emphasised the importance of sustainable dev... more Discussions leading to the Rio+20 UN conference have emphasised the importance of sustainable development and the protection of the environment for future generations. The Arab world faces large-scale threats to its sustainable development and, most of all, to the viability and existence of the ecological systems for its human settlements. The dynamics of population change, ecological degradation, and resource scarcity, and development policies and practices, all occurring in complex and highly unstable geopolitical and economic environments, are fostering the poor prospects. In this report, we discuss the most pertinent population-environment-development dynamics in the Arab world, and the two-way interactions between these dynamics and health, on the basis of current data. We draw attention to trends that are relevant to health professionals and researchers, but emphasise that the dynamics generating these trends have implications that go well beyond health. We argue that the current discourse on health, population, and development in the Arab world has largely failed to convey a sense of urgency, when the survival of whole communities is at stake. The dismal ecological and development records of Arab countries over the past two decades call for new directions. We suggest that regional ecological integration around exchange of water, energy, food, and labour, though politically diffi cult to achieve, off ers the best hope to improve the adaptive capacity of individual Arab nations. The transformative political changes taking place in the Arab world off er promise, indeed an imperative, for such renewal. We call on policy makers, researchers, practitioners, and international agencies to emphasise the urgency and take action.
ABSTRACT Engineering practice, education and research are bound to be important elements in socie... more ABSTRACT Engineering practice, education and research are bound to be important elements in society's response to climate change. While a number of other disciplines such as economics, agriculture, urban planning and geoscience, are critical to the development of mitigation policies, the designs and processes engineers create in the transport, mining, energy, building and waste management sectors will be key in determining atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses over the coming decades. Similarly, the way landscapes, buildings, neighborhoods and cities are built or rebuilt, will undoubtedly be a major part of adaptation to higher temperatures, rising sea levels and more extreme weather events. The paper discusses some of the barriers that prevent engineering education and practice from fully and productively engaging with the challenges raised by climate change. The paper recommends an expansion of the solution set to which engineering students and graduates are exposed, a better understanding by engineering students of the politics of technology and possible biases of engineers, and more engagement on the part of engineers with the social and ecological embeddedness of technology.
Mollymook, Collingwood and Callala beaches and the communities living near them were identified a... more Mollymook, Collingwood and Callala beaches and the communities living near them were identified as especially vulnerable to sea level rise by the Shoalhaven City Council. A number of possible engineering and management solutions have been identified for mitigating or eliminating the effects of expected flooding and erosion (e.g., sea wall, groyne, beach nourishment), based on guidelines developed by Engineers Australia. However, the question remains as to how to assess and compare the benefits (and not just the costs) of each option. While the cost of designing and implementing these options are reasonably easy to estimate, other environmental and aesthetic costs are more difficult to valuate. Even more challenging is quantifying in monetary terms the benefits of each option. Methods are available in the economic literature for estimating some of these parameters, however, their application requires data and resources that are not always available to local government. In this study, we propose a pragmatic approach (relatively simple yet detailed) which combines a monetary-based probabilistic flood-damage estimation technique with an estimate of non-monetary consequences of an adaptation option using local knowledge and stakeholder consultation. These two types of information (monetary and non-monetary) are combined using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods in order to generate a ranking of engineering adaptation options and assist in decision-making. We illustrate the method by applying to Callala beach in Shoalhaven. First, we calculate respective cost-benefit ratios of each option by simulating the likely effects of a flood event (with multiple probabilities of occurrence or return period) with and without proposed adaptation options, for different scenarios of sea level rise. Specifically, a flood model of Callala is developed using high resolution LiDAR Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data and tested for impacts under different sea level rise scenarios (using IPCC AR5 projections) and their corresponding exceedance probabilities (using Canute sea level rise calculator). Second, we estimate the potential damage to properties and infrastructures (cumulative over time) through flood damage function curves (quantifying the relationship between flood depth and potential damage cost of private properties and public infrastructure). Third, we estimate the non-monetary benefits of each option using a simplified approach, based on stakeholder consultation. Finally, we use two different multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approaches (simple additive weight and outranking methods) for comparison of a number of engineering adaptation options (both hard and soft measures). Results show that, in general, a combination of beach nourishment & groynes is the most preferred option for Callala beach, across all decision analysis methods. Our analyses also show that hard measures such as sea walls tend to perform better in cost-benefit analyses where non-monetary factors such as community preferences, aesthetics and environmental factors are omitted. On the other hand, including these factors through MCDA methods seems to push sea walls down the rank.
In order to develop an adaptation plan for Sea Level Rise (SLR), coastal councils often conduct h... more In order to develop an adaptation plan for Sea Level Rise (SLR), coastal councils often conduct hazard line studies to investigate present and expected future risks on coastal stretches (e.g., beaches) that harbour various types of infrastructures (e.g., roads, sewerage system, water supply system, electricity, telecom etc). Interdependencies of infrastructure components and systems are frequent with disruption of services in one, likely to cascade through the infrastructure network and produce a compound effect on users. To help decision-makers at a local council in prioritising management actions, we developed an analytical vulnerability assessment tool called EVA-INFRA (Environmental Vulnerability Assessment for infrastructures) which starts from the IPCC framework of vulnerability and considers the biophysical impacts of the hazard as well as a measure of its social and institutional dimensions. In this paper, we describe the incorporation of a system dynamics model inside EVA-INFRA that can quantify the cascading effects of disruption of any infrastructure component, leading to a more precise assessment of vulnerability.
We conducted a time-series analysis of 1997-1999 data records of air temperature and all-cause mo... more We conducted a time-series analysis of 1997-1999 data records of air temperature and all-cause mortality in Greater Beirut, using bi-linear Poisson auto-regressive models, and published our findings in the Science of the Total Environment [El-Zein, A.,
Climate change is a driving force behind some recent environmental legislation around the world. ... more Climate change is a driving force behind some recent environmental legislation around the world. Greenhouse gas emission reduction targets have been set in many industrialised countries. A change in current practices of almost all greenhouse-emitting industrial sectors is unavoidable, if the set targets is to be achieved. Although, waste disposal contributes around 3% of the total greenhouse gas emissions in Australia (mainly due to fugitive methane emissions from landfills), the carbon credit and trading scheme set to start in 2010 presents significant challenges and opportunities to municipal solid waste practitioners. Technological advances in waste management, if adopted properly, allow the municipal solid waste sector to act as carbon sink, hence earning tradable carbon credits. However, due to the complexity of the system and its inherent uncertainties, optimizing it for carbon credits may worsen its performance under other criteria. We use an integrated, stochastic multi-criteria decision-making tool that we developed earlier to analyse the carbon credit potential of Sydney municipal solid waste under eleven possible future strategies. We find that the changing legislative environment is likely to make current practices highly non-optimal and increase pressures for a change of waste management strategy.
Participatory environmental management can empower communities and enhance the sustainability of ... more Participatory environmental management can empower communities and enhance the sustainability of environmental interventions. However, existing power structures and inequalities along class, gender, or ethnic lines could prevent part of the community from accessing the full benefits of the intervention. An analysis of determinants of the willingness-to-participate in an environmental intervention in a Beirut neighborhood is conducted. Socioeconomic, health-risk distribution, and perception of community effi-
BMJ (Clinical research ed.), Jan 21, 2006
Discussions leading to the Rio+20 UN conference have emphasised the importance of sustainable dev... more Discussions leading to the Rio+20 UN conference have emphasised the importance of sustainable development and the protection of the environment for future generations. The Arab world faces large-scale threats to its sustainable development and, most of all, to the viability and existence of the ecological systems for its human settlements. The dynamics of population change, ecological degradation, and resource scarcity, and development policies and practices, all occurring in complex and highly unstable geopolitical and economic environments, are fostering the poor prospects. In this report, we discuss the most pertinent population-environment-development dynamics in the Arab world, and the two-way interactions between these dynamics and health, on the basis of current data. We draw attention to trends that are relevant to health professionals and researchers, but emphasise that the dynamics generating these trends have implications that go well beyond health. We argue that the current discourse on health, population, and development in the Arab world has largely failed to convey a sense of urgency, when the survival of whole communities is at stake. The dismal ecological and development records of Arab countries over the past two decades call for new directions. We suggest that regional ecological integration around exchange of water, energy, food, and labour, though politically diffi cult to achieve, off ers the best hope to improve the adaptive capacity of individual Arab nations. The transformative political changes taking place in the Arab world off er promise, indeed an imperative, for such renewal. We call on policy makers, researchers, practitioners, and international agencies to emphasise the urgency and take action.
ABSTRACT Engineering practice, education and research are bound to be important elements in socie... more ABSTRACT Engineering practice, education and research are bound to be important elements in society's response to climate change. While a number of other disciplines such as economics, agriculture, urban planning and geoscience, are critical to the development of mitigation policies, the designs and processes engineers create in the transport, mining, energy, building and waste management sectors will be key in determining atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses over the coming decades. Similarly, the way landscapes, buildings, neighborhoods and cities are built or rebuilt, will undoubtedly be a major part of adaptation to higher temperatures, rising sea levels and more extreme weather events. The paper discusses some of the barriers that prevent engineering education and practice from fully and productively engaging with the challenges raised by climate change. The paper recommends an expansion of the solution set to which engineering students and graduates are exposed, a better understanding by engineering students of the politics of technology and possible biases of engineers, and more engagement on the part of engineers with the social and ecological embeddedness of technology.