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Papers by Natasha Agarwal
This paper investigates the impact of US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) on US exports particularly in ... more This paper investigates the impact of US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) on US exports particularly in the wake of international competition from foreign national export credit agencies
(ECAs). We employ a gravity framework on a country-industry-year-level panel dataset that
matches EXIM authorizations with US bilateral exports. Our results depict the general ineffectiveness of the Bank in promoting exports within and across industries. Some heterogeneities
behind the general finding are also uncovered: industries other than aerospace parts and products
are more likely to benefit from EXIM authorizations, and that EXIM authorizations to larger
businesses seem to be more effective in encouraging exports. Furthermore, we find no evidence
that explains the role of EXIM in encouraging US exports by offsetting foreign ECA competition. These results are neither affected by competing countries’ membership to the OECD
Arrangement nor by the size of American firms that received EXIM support. Our results cast
doubt on the ubiquitously positive claims made by the Bank and its supporters, yet also provide policy lessons for countries that are either in the inception stages of establishing their own
ECAs or are now placing greater importance on ECA financing in encouraging domestic exports.
This paper uses the average of the percentile ranking of three measures of systemic risk { Grange... more This paper uses the average of the percentile ranking of three measures of systemic risk { Granger
Causality, Marginal Expected Shortfall,and Conditional Value at Risk { to calculate a single systemic
risk index (SRI) for a firm. The SRI is used to identify systemically important firms (SIFs) among the 50
largest firms in a quarter. This has the advantage of identifying SIFs on a regular basis using readily
available data. The paper uses this approach to identify SIFs by SRI each quarter from 2000 to 2012,
and finds that the cumulative risk of the SIFs tracks the changes in systemic risk in India during the
2008 crisis. The paper also finds merit in monitoring non-financial firms by their SRI, particularly when
bank loan portfolios have concentrated exposures in these firms.
I evaluate India's Open Government Data through the lens of its governing policy, National Data S... more I evaluate India's Open Government Data through the lens of its governing policy, National Data Sharing Accessibility Policy (NDSAP). I argue that smooth and consistent implementation of NDSAP can help in facilitating the objectives behind India's Open Data Government commitments, thus oiling its growth logjam.
Using a panel of 20,460 Chinese manufacturing firms over the period 2001-2005, we apply both para... more Using a panel of 20,460 Chinese manufacturing firms over the period 2001-2005, we apply
both parametric and non-parametric estimation techniques to examine the underlying
relationship between the economic development of the host province and FDI spillovers. We
find that provincial economic development does not systematically influence FDI spillovers.
Moreover, there exists considerable heterogeneity in the FDI spillovers not only across the 29
provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions but also across the 10 manufacturing sectors
within each of the 29 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. This suggests that FDI
spillovers in China may be affected by a combination of both the characteristics of the sector
within a province and the characteristics of the province itself.
This study gives an overview of bank taxation as an alternative to prudential regulations or non-... more This study gives an overview of bank taxation as an alternative to prudential regulations or non-revenue taxation.
We review existing bank taxation with a view to eliminating distortions in the tax system, which have incentivized banks to engage in risky activities in the past. We furthermore analyze taxation of financial instruments trading and taxation of banking products and services and their ability to finance resolution mechanisms for banks
and to ensure their stability. In this respect, we put forward the following arguments: (1) that a financial transaction tax is economically inefficient and potentially costly for the economy and may not protect taxpayers;
(2) that a bank levy used to finance deposit guarantee and bank resolution mechanisms is potentially useful
for financial stability, but that it poses the threat of double taxation, together with the proposed Basel-III Liquidity
Coverage Ratio; and (3) that we support the elimination of exemption from value added tax (VAT) for financial
services in order to provide banks with a level playing field, while retaining exemption for basic payments services. This is expected to improve efficiency by reducing the wasteful use of financial services.
'Given the critical role played by banks and their behaviour during the global financial and sove... more 'Given the critical role played by banks and their behaviour during the global financial and sovereign debt crises, this excellent book on Balancing the Regulation and Taxation of Banking by Sajid M. Chaudhry, Andrew W. Mullineux and Natasha Agarwal could not be more timely. It provides an excellent in-depth analysis of how banks are taxed and regulated in various countries – including financial transaction taxes, VAT and other fiscal treatments. It also provides thought provoking recommendations on how tax and fairness of treatment of banks should be balanced.' – Philip Molyneux, Bangor University, UK This concise book gives a unique overview of bank taxation as an alternative or a compliment to prudential regulation or non-revenue taxation. Existing bank taxation is reviewed with a view to eliminating distortions in the tax system, which have incentivized banks to engage in risky activities in the past. The authors analyse the taxation of financial instruments trading, as well as the taxation of banking products and services to gauge whether this could finance resolution mechanisms and also help to ensure the stability of banks. In this respect, the authors put forward several arguments. Firstly, they contend that a financial transaction tax is economically inefficient, potentially costly for the economy, but if set at an appropriately low rate may be used to assure banks make a 'true and fair contribution' to their implicit insurance by taxpayers. Secondly, they show that a bank levy used to finance deposit guarantee and bank resolution mechanisms is potentially useful for financial stability, but that it poses the threat of double taxation, together with the proposed Basel III liquidity ratios. Thirdly, the authors argue in favour of the elimination of exemption from value added tax (VAT) for financial services in order to provide banks with a level playing field, whilst retaining exemption for basic payment services that are infrastructural. This is expected to improve efficiency by reducing the wasteful use of financial services.
In October 2012, India embarked upon its 'Open Government Data' journey, by opening up access to ... more In October 2012, India embarked upon its 'Open Government Data' journey, by opening up access to government-owned shareable data in machine-readable formats for the use of general public. In this article, Natasha Agarwal, an independent research economist, discusses issues in the design and implementation of the initiative particularly through the lens of its governing policy-the National Data Sharing and Accessibility Policy, and makes recommendations to enhance its effectiveness in achieving stated objectives.
JEL classification: F23 G31 O1 O33
Books by Natasha Agarwal
This paper investigates the impact of US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) on US exports particularly in ... more This paper investigates the impact of US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) on US exports particularly in the wake of international competition from foreign national export credit agencies (ECAs). We employ a gravity framework on a country-industry-year-level panel data set that matches EXIM authorisations with US bilateral exports. Our results depict the general ineffectiveness of the Bank in promoting exports within and across industries. Some heterogeneities behind the general finding are also uncovered: industries other than aerospace parts and products are more likely to benefit from EXIM authorisations, and EXIM authorisations to larger businesses seem to be more effective in encouraging exports. Furthermore, we find no evidence that EXIM encourages US exports by offsetting foreign ECA competition. These results are neither affected by competing countries’ membership to the OECD Arrangement nor by the size of American firms that received EXIM support. Our results cast doubt on the ubiquitously positive claims made by the Bank and its supporters, yet also provide policy lessons for countries that are either in the inception stages of establishing their own ECAs or are now placing greater importance on ECA financing in encouraging exports.
This paper investigates the impact of US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) on US exports particularly in ... more This paper investigates the impact of US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) on US exports particularly in the wake of international competition from foreign national export credit agencies
(ECAs). We employ a gravity framework on a country-industry-year-level panel dataset that
matches EXIM authorizations with US bilateral exports. Our results depict the general ineffectiveness of the Bank in promoting exports within and across industries. Some heterogeneities
behind the general finding are also uncovered: industries other than aerospace parts and products
are more likely to benefit from EXIM authorizations, and that EXIM authorizations to larger
businesses seem to be more effective in encouraging exports. Furthermore, we find no evidence
that explains the role of EXIM in encouraging US exports by offsetting foreign ECA competition. These results are neither affected by competing countries’ membership to the OECD
Arrangement nor by the size of American firms that received EXIM support. Our results cast
doubt on the ubiquitously positive claims made by the Bank and its supporters, yet also provide policy lessons for countries that are either in the inception stages of establishing their own
ECAs or are now placing greater importance on ECA financing in encouraging domestic exports.
This paper uses the average of the percentile ranking of three measures of systemic risk { Grange... more This paper uses the average of the percentile ranking of three measures of systemic risk { Granger
Causality, Marginal Expected Shortfall,and Conditional Value at Risk { to calculate a single systemic
risk index (SRI) for a firm. The SRI is used to identify systemically important firms (SIFs) among the 50
largest firms in a quarter. This has the advantage of identifying SIFs on a regular basis using readily
available data. The paper uses this approach to identify SIFs by SRI each quarter from 2000 to 2012,
and finds that the cumulative risk of the SIFs tracks the changes in systemic risk in India during the
2008 crisis. The paper also finds merit in monitoring non-financial firms by their SRI, particularly when
bank loan portfolios have concentrated exposures in these firms.
I evaluate India's Open Government Data through the lens of its governing policy, National Data S... more I evaluate India's Open Government Data through the lens of its governing policy, National Data Sharing Accessibility Policy (NDSAP). I argue that smooth and consistent implementation of NDSAP can help in facilitating the objectives behind India's Open Data Government commitments, thus oiling its growth logjam.
Using a panel of 20,460 Chinese manufacturing firms over the period 2001-2005, we apply both para... more Using a panel of 20,460 Chinese manufacturing firms over the period 2001-2005, we apply
both parametric and non-parametric estimation techniques to examine the underlying
relationship between the economic development of the host province and FDI spillovers. We
find that provincial economic development does not systematically influence FDI spillovers.
Moreover, there exists considerable heterogeneity in the FDI spillovers not only across the 29
provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions but also across the 10 manufacturing sectors
within each of the 29 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. This suggests that FDI
spillovers in China may be affected by a combination of both the characteristics of the sector
within a province and the characteristics of the province itself.
This study gives an overview of bank taxation as an alternative to prudential regulations or non-... more This study gives an overview of bank taxation as an alternative to prudential regulations or non-revenue taxation.
We review existing bank taxation with a view to eliminating distortions in the tax system, which have incentivized banks to engage in risky activities in the past. We furthermore analyze taxation of financial instruments trading and taxation of banking products and services and their ability to finance resolution mechanisms for banks
and to ensure their stability. In this respect, we put forward the following arguments: (1) that a financial transaction tax is economically inefficient and potentially costly for the economy and may not protect taxpayers;
(2) that a bank levy used to finance deposit guarantee and bank resolution mechanisms is potentially useful
for financial stability, but that it poses the threat of double taxation, together with the proposed Basel-III Liquidity
Coverage Ratio; and (3) that we support the elimination of exemption from value added tax (VAT) for financial
services in order to provide banks with a level playing field, while retaining exemption for basic payments services. This is expected to improve efficiency by reducing the wasteful use of financial services.
'Given the critical role played by banks and their behaviour during the global financial and sove... more 'Given the critical role played by banks and their behaviour during the global financial and sovereign debt crises, this excellent book on Balancing the Regulation and Taxation of Banking by Sajid M. Chaudhry, Andrew W. Mullineux and Natasha Agarwal could not be more timely. It provides an excellent in-depth analysis of how banks are taxed and regulated in various countries – including financial transaction taxes, VAT and other fiscal treatments. It also provides thought provoking recommendations on how tax and fairness of treatment of banks should be balanced.' – Philip Molyneux, Bangor University, UK This concise book gives a unique overview of bank taxation as an alternative or a compliment to prudential regulation or non-revenue taxation. Existing bank taxation is reviewed with a view to eliminating distortions in the tax system, which have incentivized banks to engage in risky activities in the past. The authors analyse the taxation of financial instruments trading, as well as the taxation of banking products and services to gauge whether this could finance resolution mechanisms and also help to ensure the stability of banks. In this respect, the authors put forward several arguments. Firstly, they contend that a financial transaction tax is economically inefficient, potentially costly for the economy, but if set at an appropriately low rate may be used to assure banks make a 'true and fair contribution' to their implicit insurance by taxpayers. Secondly, they show that a bank levy used to finance deposit guarantee and bank resolution mechanisms is potentially useful for financial stability, but that it poses the threat of double taxation, together with the proposed Basel III liquidity ratios. Thirdly, the authors argue in favour of the elimination of exemption from value added tax (VAT) for financial services in order to provide banks with a level playing field, whilst retaining exemption for basic payment services that are infrastructural. This is expected to improve efficiency by reducing the wasteful use of financial services.
In October 2012, India embarked upon its 'Open Government Data' journey, by opening up access to ... more In October 2012, India embarked upon its 'Open Government Data' journey, by opening up access to government-owned shareable data in machine-readable formats for the use of general public. In this article, Natasha Agarwal, an independent research economist, discusses issues in the design and implementation of the initiative particularly through the lens of its governing policy-the National Data Sharing and Accessibility Policy, and makes recommendations to enhance its effectiveness in achieving stated objectives.
JEL classification: F23 G31 O1 O33
This paper investigates the impact of US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) on US exports particularly in ... more This paper investigates the impact of US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) on US exports particularly in the wake of international competition from foreign national export credit agencies (ECAs). We employ a gravity framework on a country-industry-year-level panel data set that matches EXIM authorisations with US bilateral exports. Our results depict the general ineffectiveness of the Bank in promoting exports within and across industries. Some heterogeneities behind the general finding are also uncovered: industries other than aerospace parts and products are more likely to benefit from EXIM authorisations, and EXIM authorisations to larger businesses seem to be more effective in encouraging exports. Furthermore, we find no evidence that EXIM encourages US exports by offsetting foreign ECA competition. These results are neither affected by competing countries’ membership to the OECD Arrangement nor by the size of American firms that received EXIM support. Our results cast doubt on the ubiquitously positive claims made by the Bank and its supporters, yet also provide policy lessons for countries that are either in the inception stages of establishing their own ECAs or are now placing greater importance on ECA financing in encouraging exports.