Agnès Bénassy-quéré - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Agnès Bénassy-quéré

Economie internationale, Sep 1, 2007

Surging growth and rising interdependence of East-Asian economies during the last two decades hav... more Surging growth and rising interdependence of East-Asian economies during the last two decades have heightened interest in monetary and financial integration. From 1985 to 2005, the share of intra-regional trade in total trade for the South-East and East Asian region (including Japan) grew from 28% to 34%. Around the middle of this period, in 1997, the rapid propagation of the Thai currency crisis over South-East Asia lent urgency to accompanying economic integration with steps toward monetary and financial integration and for jointly improving the quality of financial supervision in the region.

This paper presents a two-country model of the Dutch disease in a monetary union calibrated on Ni... more This paper presents a two-country model of the Dutch disease in a monetary union calibrated on Nigeria and WAEMU. Three monetary regimes are successively studied at the union level: a flexible exchange rate with constant money supply, a flexible exchange rate with endogenous money supply, and a fixed exchange rate regime. We find that the Dutch disease is more difficult to cure within a monetary union. Furthermore, WAEMU can be affected by oil shocks if the monetary union has a flexible exchange rate vis-à-vis the rest of the world. Finally, monetary union with Nigeria makes it more difficult for WAEMU to grasp the benefits from and increase in non-oil commodity prices. On the whole, the two zones are likely to disagree on the common monetary regime if oil-price shocks are dominant, although much less the case if non-oil commodity price shocks are also important.

Millennium Development Goals at Midpoint: Where do we stand and where do we need to go? Support f... more Millennium Development Goals at Midpoint: Where do we stand and where do we need to go? Support from the CIREM is gratefully acknowledged 1 Paper written in the framework of the joint initiative "Mobilising European Research for Development Policies" for the European Commission (DG Development and Relations with

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013

We study the implication of a multipolarization of the international monetary system on crosscurr... more We study the implication of a multipolarization of the international monetary system on crosscurrency volatility. More specifically, we analyze whether the internationalization of the yuan could modify the impact of asset supply and trade shocks on the euro-dollar exchange rate, within a threecountry, three-currency portfolio model. Our static model shows that the internationalization of the yuan (defined as a rise in the yuan in international portfolios) would be either neutral or stabilizing for the euro-dollar rate, whatever the exchange-rate regime of China. Moving to a dynamic, stockflow framework, we show that the internationalization of the yuan would make exchange-rate variations more efficient to stabilize net foreign asset positions after a trade shock.

I. INTRODUCTION II. DE FACTO EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES IN ASIA 2.1. Nominal pegs 2.2. Real pegs III. ... more I. INTRODUCTION II. DE FACTO EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES IN ASIA 2.1. Nominal pegs 2.2. Real pegs III. RATIONALE FOR EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES IN ASIA 3.1 Choosing an exchange rate regime in Asia 3.2 Choosing a foreign anchor a. Trade flows b. Capital flows 3.3. A simple model simple model for the choice of a foreign anchor a. The small country case b. The two-country case ANNEXES REFERENCES LIST OF WORKING PAPERS RELEASED BY CEPII Echange Rate Regimes and Policies in Asia _________________________________________________________________________ 3 RÉSUMÉ Les régimes de change dans les pays d'Asie ne sont pas clairement définis. Officiellement, seul Hong Kong rattache sa monnaie au dollar américain, tandis que la plupart des autres pays ont adopté des régimes de « flottement administré », c'est-à-dire de taux de change flexible avec de fréquentes interventions officielles. Les régimes officiels sont donc souvent imprécis, et ils peuvent recouvrir plusieurs types de politiques de facto. Cet article s'attache à distinguer les régimes de change effectifs des régimes de change officiels déclarés au FMI. Il fait apparaître une discordance entre blocs commerciaux, blocs financiers et blocs monétaires en Asie. Les flux commerciaux sont de plus en plus intensifs entre les pays d'Asie autres que le Japon. Les flux de capitaux sont particulièrement dynamiques entre le Japon (et plus récemment les NPI) et les pays de l'ASEAN. Enfin, bien que le yen soit de plus en plus utilisé dans le libellé des dettes, et dans une moindre mesure, dans le libellé des transactions commerciales, il n'existe pas en Asie de bloc monétaire au sens d'une stabilité des taux de change vis-à-vis du yen.

International Economics, 2014

We study the impact of a broadening of the SDR basket to the Chinese currency on the composition ... more We study the impact of a broadening of the SDR basket to the Chinese currency on the composition and volatility of the basket. Although, in the past, RMB inclusion would have had almost negligible impact due to its limited weight, a much more significant impact can be expected in the next decades, and more so if the Chinese currency is pegged to the US dollar. If the objective is to reinforce the attractiveness of the SDR as a unit of account and a store of value through more stability, then a broadening of the SDR to the RMB could be appropriate, provided some flexibility is introduced in the Chinese exchange-rate regime. This issue of flexibility is de facto more important than that of "free usability" to make the SDR more stable, at least in the short and medium run.

Regional Currency Areas in Financial Globalization

Revue d'économie financière, 2010

[eng] Meeting Eyes on the International Financial System.. During the 27th Journees d’economie fi... more [eng] Meeting Eyes on the International Financial System.. During the 27th Journees d’economie financiere et monetaire (Bordeaux, June 2010 ; CNRS GdRE 335), the authors have been discussing different points of view relative to the International Financial System. Marc Flandreau analyzes how the acceptances market has been used by the Americain central bank, supported by a political will, to ease the emergence of the dollar as the international currency at the beginning of the 20th century. As for Andre Cartapanis, the dollar and the euro are into a stable hierarchical configuration : the dollar being an undisputed international currency and the euro a brilliant second. A purely economic analysis does not explain this supremacy, as the international currency also responds to specific political factors and the euro does not offer, on this level, the same attributes that the U. S. dollar. Patrick Artus gives an investor’s outlook : global imbalances will remain but will move due to the ongoing shrinking of the Chinese commercial surpluses and acute attention is now payed to the quality of the assets of central banks balance sheets. Agnes Benassy-Quere stresses the unbalances between the relative weights of the real and the financial sectors in both emerging and developed [fre] A l’occasion d’une table ronde organisee dans le cadre des 27eme Journees d’economie financiere et monetaire (Bordeaux, juin 2010 ; CNRS GdRE 335), les auteurs ont confronte differents points de vue sur le systeme monetaire international. Marc Flandreau analyse le role joue par le marche americain des « acceptances » dans la montee en puissance du dollar comme monnaie internationale au debut du XXeme siecle et souligne le soutien actif apporte par la banque centrale et les responsables politiques americains. Pour Andre Cartapanis, le dollar et l’euro semblent s’etre installes dans une configuration stable mais hierarchisee -le dollar monnaie internationale incontestee et l’euro brillant second -qu’une analyse strictement economique ne permet pas d’expliquer. Le statut de monnaie internationale repond en effet aussi a des facteurs specifiquement politiques et l’euro ne dispose pas, sur ce plan, des memes attributs que le dollar. Patrick Artus traite de la maniere dont les marches percoivent les evolutions en cours : des desequilibres vont se maintenir mais se deplacer avec la reduction en cours des excedents commerciaux chinois et une attention de plus en plus forte est portee par les investisseurs a la qualite des actifs au bilan des banques centrales. Agnes Benassy-Quere insiste sur les divergences entre les poids relatifs, dans les pays developpes et emergents, des economies reelles et financieres, causes de fortes variations des taux de change et d’asymetries d’ajustement. Elle explore les differentes voies de reforme du systeme monetaire international. . Classification JEL : F31, F32.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2006

The way fiscal policy impacts on domestic and foreign economies depends on several factors. In pa... more The way fiscal policy impacts on domestic and foreign economies depends on several factors. In particular, the presence of excess capacity, accommodating monetary policy, distortionary taxation and liquidity constrained consumers, plays a prominent role in affecting how fiscal policies feed into the economic activity in the home country. The impact on foreign output depends crucially on the importance of trade links, on real exchange rates and, in a monetary union, on the sensitiveness of private investment and consumption to the common interest rate. The last thirty years have witnessed frequent changes in the economic environment. For instance, in most OECD countries, the monetary policy stance became less accommodating in the 1980s compared to the 1970s, and more accommodating again in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Moreover, financial markets have been heavily deregulated. Hence, fiscal policy might have lost (or gained) power as a stimulating tool in the hands of policymakers. This study attempts to shed more light on the time evolution of domestic and cross-border tax and spending multipliers. We analyze the domestic impact of fiscal shocks in Germany, the UK and the US and cross-border fiscal spillovers from Germany to the seven largest European economies. By estimating small-scale vector autoregression models, "augmented" by factors representing developments in the world economy, it is found that over the period 1971 to 2004 tax shocks have generally been more effective in spurring domestic output than government spending shocks. This might be due to the fact that tax policies may rise potential growth in the long run, especially when distortionary taxes are removed thus increasing economic efficiency and competitiveness. Government spending shocks, on the contrary, are more likely to crowd out the private sector. When the estimation is performed recursively over samples of seventeen years of data, it emerges that GDP multipliers have dropped drastically from early 1990s on, especially in Germany (tax shocks) and in the US (both tax and government spending shocks). Moreover, the conduct of fiscal policy seems to have become less erratic, as documented by a lower variance of fiscal shocks over time, and this might contribute to explain why business cycles have shown less volatility in the countries under examination. Expansionary fiscal policies in Germany do not generally have beggar-thy-neighbor effects on other European countries. In particular, when shorter subsamples are analyzed, our results suggest that tax multipliers have been positive but vanishing for neighboring countries (France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Austria), weak and mostly not significant for more remote ones (the UK and Spain). Cross-border government spending multipliers are found to be monotonically weak for all the subsamples considered. However, foreign output seems to react positively in the short run and when the 1970s have been dropped, but just for the Netherlands, Belgium and Austria. Overall these findings suggest that fiscal "surprises", in the form of unexpected reductions in taxation and expansions in government consumption and investment, have become progressively less successful in stimulating the economic activity at the domestic level, indicating that, in the framework of the European Monetary Union, policymakers can only marginally rely on this discretionary instrument as a substitute for national monetary policy. Further-4 Changing Patterns of Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Europe and the US more, the positive sign of cross-corder multipliers suggests that the interest rate channel of transmission of fiscal policy is offset by the trade one.

China entry into the WTO, coupled with trade surplus and growing forex reserve, could end in a re... more China entry into the WTO, coupled with trade surplus and growing forex reserve, could end in a relaxation of the Chinese exchange-rate peg, which has remained stable against the dollar since 1994. This paper explores the consequence of such a move in the light of intra-Asian trade integration.

We argue that the main equilibrium exchange rate approaches (ppp, beer, and feer) correspond to d... more We argue that the main equilibrium exchange rate approaches (ppp, beer, and feer) correspond to different time horizons of a single theoretical framework. We propose an illustration for the euro/dollar exchange rate. Our results suggest that the various approaches should not be opposed but rather combined to provide useful benchmarks for exchange-rate policies. Classification JEL : F31, C23.

Revue d'économie financière, 2004

Dans cet article, les auteurs cherchent à déterminer la marge d’appréciation du yuan, et à analys... more Dans cet article, les auteurs cherchent à déterminer la marge d’appréciation du yuan, et à analyser les conséquences qu’aurait, pour la parité euro-dollar, un réajustement du taux de change du yuan et des monnaies asiatiques. Tout d’abord, cet article rappelle les origines du régime de change fixe en Chine, dont le choix est indissociable de la stratégie de développement chinoise, fondée sur une ouverture privilégiant les exportations. Puis, il propose deux mesures alternatives du taux de change d’équilibre du yuan, l’une fondée sur l’hypothèse que le yuan doit se comporter comme l’ensemble des monnaies des pays du G20, l’autre fondée sur l’hypothèse que les monnaies du G20 ont chacune une dynamique d’ajustement propre. Enfin, les auteurs étudient l’impact qu’aurait un réajustement du yuan et des autres monnaies asiatiques sur les déséquilibres mondiaux, mesurés par les distorsions de change subies par ces pays. Différents scénarios permettent de quantifier les conséquences d’une év...

We study the extent and policy implications of tax competition in the case of a double-competitio... more We study the extent and policy implications of tax competition in the case of a double-competition on both tax rates and provision of public factors. First, we derive the relevant theoretical results in a unified framework where a corporate tax is used to finance a public good which both raises household utility and firm productivity. Then, the relevance of such

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011

Macroeconomic consequences of global endogenous migration: a general equilibrium analysis * Vladi... more Macroeconomic consequences of global endogenous migration: a general equilibrium analysis * Vladimir Borgy (a,b), Xavier Chojnicki (b,c), Gilles Le Garrec (d) and Cyrille Schwellnus (b,e) (a) Banque de France, (b) CEPII (c) EQUIPPE, Universities of Lille, (d) OFCE (e) OECD December 2010 * This paper is based on research carried out in the EU 6th framework funded research project ENEPO, Project n • 028736-6e PCRD (FP6). We would like to thank Ahmed Tritah for his help on data processing. We are grateful to Juha Alho, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Martine Carré, Cécily Defoort, Frédéric Docquier, Luca Marchiori, Sandra Poncet, Christophe Trebesch, participants to the "migration and development" conference in Lille and two anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions. An earlier version has been published as a CEPII working paper. This paper reects the opinions of the authors and does not necessarily express the views of the institutions they are aliated with. The usual disclaimers apply.