Alessandro Turrini - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Alessandro Turrini

Intereconomics

This paper studies the relationship between real convergence in the euro area and macroeconomic i... more This paper studies the relationship between real convergence in the euro area and macroeconomic imbalances. It compares the main features of convergence within the euro area with other EU and non-EU country groups, looking at both ‘sigma’ and ‘beta’ convergence in output and total factor productivity. Expected convergence paths for euro area countries are estimated using growth regressions run on a large panel of advanced and emerging market economies and compared to actual growth. The findings support the view that EU and euro area countries display similar convergence patterns to those of other country groups, while the group of countries that adopted the euro first exhibit relatively weak convergence since before the financial crisis. Such differences could be partly linked to relatively low dispersion in per capita incomes across this country group, although lack of convergence is also largely due to persisting differences in total factor productivity performance. The findings a...

Cepr Discussion Papers, Jul 1, 2006

The Centre for Economic Policy Research was established in 1983 as a private educational charity,... more The Centre for Economic Policy Research was established in 1983 as a private educational charity, to promote independent analysis and public discussion of open economies and the relations among them. It is pluralist and non-partisan, bringing economic research to bear on the analysis of medium-and long-run policy questions. Institutional (core) finance for the Centre has been provided through major grants from the Economic and Social Research Council, under which an ESRC Resource Centre operates within CEPR; the Esmée Fairbairn Charitable Trust; and the Bank of England. These organizations do not give prior review to the Centre's publications, nor do they necessarily endorse the views expressed therein. These Discussion Papers often represent preliminary or incomplete work, circulated to encourage discussion and comment. Citation and use of such a paper should take account of its provisional character.

Cepr Discussion Papers, Mar 1, 2009

The EU-US total factor productivity (TFP) growth gap since the mid-1990's is concentrated in a ha... more The EU-US total factor productivity (TFP) growth gap since the mid-1990's is concentrated in a handful of market service industries (most notably retail trade) and in ICT-producing manufacturing, whilst the EU exhibits a stronger performance in a number of the network utilities. This paper explores the industry-specific determinants of the EU-US TFP growth gap using the EU KLEMS database. As found in previous analyses (e.g., Nicoletti and Scarpetta (2003); Griffith, Redding, and Van Reenen (2004); Inklaar, Timmer and Van Ark (2008)), TFP growth appears to be driven by catching-up phenomena associated with the gradual adoption of new-vintage technologies. Compared with previous analyses, TFP growth is also significantly driven by developments taking place at the "technological frontier", increasingly so since the mid-1990's. Industries with higher R&D expenditures and higher adoption rates for ICT-intensive technologies appear to exhibit higher TFP growth rates, whilst human capital has mostly a significant effect across countries. Regarding industry specific determinants, ICT producing industries appear to benefit from R&D in terms of stronger spillovers from TFP gains at the frontier; network utilities are strongly affected by improvements associated with reduced product market regulations; whilst the retail trade industry is significantly influenced by consumption dynamics which permit a better exploitation of scale economies.

In this paper we develop a model of a vertically differentiated industry where the production of ... more In this paper we develop a model of a vertically differentiated industry where the production of higher quality goods needs a higher fraction of specialized labour. In the first stage, firms choose the quality of their products, in the second, both good prices and skilled workers' wages are determined. We show that in duopoly, though supplying different variants of the product, firms tend to cluster either at the bottom or at the top of the quality ladder, depending on skilled labour availability. This switch in equilibrium qualities creates a discontinuous behaviour for the wage rate of skilled workers. When the supply of skilled labour is made endogenous, two equilibria are simultaneously possible: one with low-skill, low-quality, the other with high-skill, high-quality.

European Economy Economic Papers, May 1, 2004

It is often claimed that the introduction of the EU rules-based fiscal framework of the Maastrich... more It is often claimed that the introduction of the EU rules-based fiscal framework of the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact was responsible for a decline in public investment shares in EU countries. Proposals have also been made in recent times in favour of a revision of the EU fiscal framework in such a way to grant special treatment to public capital expenditures (e.g., by amending it with a 'golden rule'). This paper analyses empirically the relation between the introduction of the EU fiscal framework and public investment. Results from panel data analysis suggest that the impact of the EU rules for fiscal discipline is not a clear-cut one. On the one hand, after phase II of EMU, public investment is found to be more negatively affected by debt levels. This is consistent with the view that in the run-up to Maastricht the budgetary adjustment implied a significant decline in public investment, especially in high-debt countries. On the other hand, results indicate that after phase II of EMU the negative relation between previous-period budget balances and public investment started being insignificant, meaning that the improvement in the budget balances consequent to the introduction of the EU fiscal rules may have helped to create room for public investment in several EU countries. An illustration of the main trade-offs involved by amending the EU fiscal framework with a golden rule is also provided and the policy issues raised by the rising recourse to Public-Private-Partnerships (PPP) contracts to carry out public purpose investment projects are discussed.

Economic Papers, 2003

This paper analyses non-Keynesian effects in fiscal consolidations in the EU. The analysis is car... more This paper analyses non-Keynesian effects in fiscal consolidations in the EU. The analysis is carried out both ex-post, i.e. by looking at the emergence of expansionary consolidations in the past and at their characteristics, and ex-ante, i.e. by simulating with the European Commission QUEST model under which conditions public finance consolidation would exhibit non-Keynesian effects in the current EMU context. Crosscountry analysis shows that roughly half of the episodes of fiscal consolidations that have been undertaken in the EU in the last thirty years have been followed by an acceleration in growth. The consolidations that turned out to be expansionary were in general based on expenditure cuts rather than on revenue increases. These results are robust with respect to the criteria used to identify the consolidation episodes and to classify such episodes as expansionary. Simulations with the QUEST model show that expansionary effects from fiscal consolidations can emerge in the short/medium run provided that consolidations are expenditure-based. Irrespective of the type of expenditure cut simulated, non-Keynesian effects in QUEST are associated with a reaction of aggregate consumption to expected future incomes; in the case of cuts to the government wage bill the investment channel is also relevant. In the short-run there could be a trade-off between the role of the consumption and the investment channel in conveying non-Keynesian effects.

Economic Papers, 2008

Información del artículo Governement expenditure and economic growth in the EU: long-run tendenci... more Información del artículo Governement expenditure and economic growth in the EU: long-run tendencies and short term adjustment.

All fiscal consolidations are of the size-type (see note to table ?). A 'pure' expansionary fisca... more All fiscal consolidations are of the size-type (see note to table ?). A 'pure' expansionary fiscal consolidation is an expansionary fiscal consolidation in which the average change in real short run interest rates between t-1 and t+1 is non-negative. Definitions of expansionary fiscal consolidation Growth: average real GDP growth between t and t+2 greater than between t-1 and t-2. Trend growth: average trend growth between t and t+2 greater than between t-1 and t-2. Actual minus trend growth: average difference (actual real growth-trend growth) between t and t+2 greater than between t-1 and t-2. Actual minus EU growth: average difference (actual real GDP growth-EU average real growth) between t and t+2 greater than between t-1 and t-2. Source: Commission services

Paper prepared for the invited session on "Multinationals and Labour Markets", annual meeting of ... more Paper prepared for the invited session on "Multinationals and Labour Markets", annual meeting of the European Economic Association, Venice, August 22-24, 2002. The authors are extremely thankful to Alessandra Tucci for skilful and very patient research assistance. This paper is part of the outcome of the "Labour Market Effects of Foreign Direct Investments" project, funded by the European Commission under the SocioEconomic Research Programme.

The WTO, Developing Countries and the Doha Development Agenda, 2004

This Discussion Paper is issued under the auspices of the Centre's research programme in Internat... more This Discussion Paper is issued under the auspices of the Centre's research programme in International Trade. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Research disseminated by CEPR may include views on policy, but the Centre itself takes no institutional policy positions. The Centre for Economic Policy Research was established in 1983 as a private educational charity, to promote independent analysis and public discussion of open economies and the relations among them. It is pluralist and non-partisan, bringing economic research to bear on the analysis of medium-and long-run policy questions. Institutional (core) finance for the Centre has been provided through major grants from the Economic and Social Research Council, under which an ESRC Resource Centre operates within CEPR; the Esmée Fairbairn Charitable Trust; and the Bank of England. These organizations do not give prior review to the Centre's publications, nor do they necessarily endorse the views expressed therein. These Discussion Papers often represent preliminary or incomplete work, circulated to encourage discussion and comment. Citation and use of such a paper should take account of its provisional character.

Zei Working Papers, 1999

The effect of labour costs on industry profits, employment and labour income is at the heart of t... more The effect of labour costs on industry profits, employment and labour income is at the heart of the current European debate on industry competitiveness. High wages paid in European countries such as Germany are generally considered harmful for industry profitability. Though, high wages appear also to be associated with high labour skills and then with superior product quality. Similarly, a reduction in labour taxes is often invoked as a tool to improve industry profitability, but this argument hardly takes into account the demand effects of such a tax reform. In this paper we analyse the trade-off between labour costs and industry profits by means of a simple general equilibrium model where one industry is oligopolistic and vertically differentiated. The manufacturing of products of a higher quality requires the employment of a larger amount of skilled labour. Given an underlying skills distribution, the model determines profits, wages and aggregate income and welfare. Results show that high net wages due to a low skills endowment in the economy are typically associated with low profits. Labour taxation unambiguously raises gross wages, but has little effect on net wages. Depending on how the tax revenue is redistributed, higher taxation may either depress or boost industry profits.

Comparative Economic Studies, 2009

This paper investigates the accession-related economic boom in the countries which recently enter... more This paper investigates the accession-related economic boom in the countries which recently entered the European Union (EU). The analysis tests whether, on top of the standard growth determinants, the period of EU accession made a significant difference to the growth performance of the new member states (NMS). The paper finds that the period of EU accession is characterised by significantly larger growth rates of per-capita GDP, even after controlling for a wide range of economic and institutional factors. This effect is robust and particularly strong for countries with relatively low initial income levels, weak institutional quality and less advanced financial development, suggesting that EU accession has been speeding up the catching-up process and improved the institutions of the laggards among the NMS. The prospect of EU membership which has triggered large capital inflows seems to have fostered economic growth of those NMS with lower degrees of financial depth.

This Discussion Paper is issued under the auspices of the Centre's research programme in INTERNAT... more This Discussion Paper is issued under the auspices of the Centre's research programme in INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Research disseminated by CEPR may include views on policy, but the Centre itself takes no institutional policy positions. The Centre for Economic Policy Research was established in 1983 as a private educational charity, to promote independent analysis and public discussion of open economies and the relations among them. It is pluralist and non-partisan, bringing economic research to bear on the analysis of medium-and long-run policy questions. Institutional (core) finance for the Centre has been provided through major grants from the Economic and Social Research Council, under which an ESRC Resource Centre operates within CEPR; the Esmée Fairbairn Charitable Trust; and the Bank of England. These organizations do not give prior review to the Centre's publications, nor do they necessarily endorse the views expressed therein. These Discussion Papers often represent preliminary or incomplete work, circulated to encourage discussion and comment. Citation and use of such a paper should take account of its provisional character.