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Papers by Alexander Moiseyev

Research paper thumbnail of Economic impacts of increased forest biodiversity conservation in Europe

Research paper thumbnail of The EFI-GTM model: past - present - future

Research paper thumbnail of Impacts of forest bioenergy and policies on the forest sector markets in Europe - what do we know?

Research paper thumbnail of Modeling carbon leakage impacts of the EU climate policies with a global forest sector model

Several scenarios were defined to analyze changes in the carbon emission flows related to the woo... more Several scenarios were defined to analyze changes in the carbon emission flows related to the wood harvest and wood based forest products manufacturing in the different global regions. For the analysis we use a revised version of the partial equilibrium model for the global forest sector, the EFI-GTM model. The results of the scenario analysis provide insights into changes in the carbon emissions from the harvest, trade and production of the wood based products as a result of (i) EU forest conservation and (ii) EU Renewable Energy policies and (iii) maximizing use of wood as environmental friendly material. The main changes in the global carbon emissions are coming from reallocation of the sub regional harvests and changes in the trade of wood and wood based products. Reallocation of forest products manufacturing also play a role in the changes of the carbon emissions. Wednesday

Research paper thumbnail of Competitiveness of the European Forest Sector - a contribution to EFSOS II

As a contribution to the second European Forest Sector Outlook Study (EFSOS II) this study analys... more As a contribution to the second European Forest Sector Outlook Study (EFSOS II) this study analysis the historic and future competitiveness of the European forest sector using the constant market share (CMS) methodology. The analysis is based on bilateral trade data in monetary terms. The historic ex-post analysis covers the years from 1993 to 2008, with a specific focus on the period 2003 to 2008. The scenario analysis is undertaken for the period 2010 to 2030. The basis is given by a reference scenario. It describes a business as usual development. Additionally, as a policy scenario, the effects of the promotion of wood energy on trade and competitiveness are examined. The ex-post analysis shows that most countries of the EFSOS region have had a positive export growth in period 2003-2008. The growth of the world market can be identified as the main driver of the positive development. But also the presence with forest products in growing regional markets has had positive effects. T...

Research paper thumbnail of Impacts of climate policies and energy technology paths on the global wood demand and supply

Research paper thumbnail of A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways

Regional Environmental Change, 2017

Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for ... more Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall sustainable development. The assessment of multiple emerging land use trade-offs is complicated by the fact that land use changes occur and have consequences at local, regional, and even global scale. Outcomes also depend on the underlying socioeconomic trends. We apply a coupled, multi-scale modelling system to assess an increase in nature protection areas as a key policy option in the European Union (EU). The main goal of Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article

Research paper thumbnail of Identifying pathways to visions of future land use in Europe

Regional Environmental Change, 2016

Plausible scenarios of future land use derived from model projections may differ substantially fr... more Plausible scenarios of future land use derived from model projections may differ substantially from what is actually desired by society, and identifying such mismatches is important for identifying policies to resolve them. This paper presents an approach to link explorative projections of future land use for the European Union to normative visions of desired land-use futures. We used the results of 24 scenario projections obtained from seven linked simulation models to explore uncertainty in future land-use developments. Land-use projections were linked to statements made by stakeholders for three normative visions of desired, future land use. The visions differed in the scale of multifunctionality of land use: at European (Best Land in Europe), regional (Regional Connected) or local (Local Multifunctional) level. To identify pathways to these visions, we analysed in which cases projected landuse changes matched with the land-use changes desired in the visions. We identified five pathways to the vision Regional Connected, two pathways to the vision Best Land in Europe, but no pathway to the vision Local Multifunctional. Our results suggest that policies have the ability to Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (

Research paper thumbnail of Some forestry implications of agricultural short-rotation woody crops in the United States

Describes the analysis, results, and some forestry implications on the two economic models, NAPAP... more Describes the analysis, results, and some forestry implications on the two economic models, NAPAP model and USDS POLYSYS.

Research paper thumbnail of Impacts of Reduction of Illegal Logging in European Russia on the EU and European Russia Forest Sector and Trade

Research paper thumbnail of The global forest sector model EFI-GTM - the model structure

Research paper thumbnail of Impacts of forest bioenergy and policies on the forest sector markets in Europe – what do we know?

The main political objectives of EU's renewable strategy are decreased use of fossil energy s... more The main political objectives of EU's renewable strategy are decreased use of fossil energy sources, reduced CO2 emissions and increased energy self sufficiency. Wood based bioenergy plays an important role in this strategy. The potential increase in wood demand for bioenergy production is of high interest for the EU forestry and forest industries due to its impacts on wood prices, profitability of forestry and forest industries, rural employment, recreation and forest ecology. In recent years, several studies have addressed the development of the wood demand for bioenergy, policies affecting it, and the above-mentioned impacts. To facilitate the use of the results by policy makers and other forest and energy sector stakeholders, a synthesis of the studies is in place. What are the policy relevant messages that come out of the studies, and what are the primary issues we lack science based information on? This report seeks addressing these questions, reviewing five recent studies...

Research paper thumbnail of Forests in the global balance-changing paradigms

Research paper thumbnail of Forest Industries in the Russian Federation

World Forests, 1999

The forest sector in Russia is of significance for the economy of the country, accounting as it d... more The forest sector in Russia is of significance for the economy of the country, accounting as it does for 4% of the GDP. Similarly the sector accounts for over 7% of the total industrial labor force of the country (Burdin 1997).

Research paper thumbnail of Wood biomass use for energy in Europe under different assumptions of coal, gas and CO2 emission prices and market conditions

Journal of Forest Economics, 2013

Research paper thumbnail of Impact of the future global scenarios on the EU forest sector development

Research paper thumbnail of The impact of subsidies and carbon pricing on the wood biomass use for energy in the EU

Energy, 2014

EFI-GTM model •Global Forest Sector Model •Partial equilibrium model •Several regional agents max... more EFI-GTM model •Global Forest Sector Model •Partial equilibrium model •Several regional agents maximize their profit/welfare under perfect competition •Recursive model •Dimensions • 36 products (6 wood, 4 rec.paper, 26 forest industry products) and additionally electricity and heat are included • 60 regions (31 in Europe) • 1-3 existing production technologies + new technologies from investments

Research paper thumbnail of PROJECTING FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FOREST SECTOR USING FOREST SECTOR MODEL

The Russian forest sector is currently under pressure of an economic crisis. Average annual produ... more The Russian forest sector is currently under pressure of an economic crisis. Average annual production of the roundwood has decreased about 3 times since 1989. Limited domestic demand for forest products restricts production growth and the development of the technology in forest industries. At the same time forest resources are not fully utilized. However, this situation may change in the future. The key factor affecting the future of the forest sector is annual GDP growth. The PELPS III model is utilized for projecting the future of the Russian forest sector. Preliminary results show that it will take a long time to restore past production levels in the forest industries. The paper also outlines the future development of a forest sector model using a partial equilibrium framework for forest industries and forestry sector. ____________________________________________________________________________________________

Research paper thumbnail of 17 Short-rotation Woody Crops in the USA Forestry Implications of Agricultural

Research paper thumbnail of Future Market Scenarios for Pulpwood Supply from Agricultural Short-Rotation Woody Crops

NAPAP model and USDS POLYSYS models were linked to project future market scenarios of pulpwood su... more NAPAP model and USDS POLYSYS models were linked to project future market scenarios of pulpwood supply from agricultural short-rotation woody crops in the US. Results suggest that pulpwood supply from fast-growing hybrid poplars and cottonwoods will become marginally economical but fairly limited in the next several decades.

Research paper thumbnail of Economic impacts of increased forest biodiversity conservation in Europe

Research paper thumbnail of The EFI-GTM model: past - present - future

Research paper thumbnail of Impacts of forest bioenergy and policies on the forest sector markets in Europe - what do we know?

Research paper thumbnail of Modeling carbon leakage impacts of the EU climate policies with a global forest sector model

Several scenarios were defined to analyze changes in the carbon emission flows related to the woo... more Several scenarios were defined to analyze changes in the carbon emission flows related to the wood harvest and wood based forest products manufacturing in the different global regions. For the analysis we use a revised version of the partial equilibrium model for the global forest sector, the EFI-GTM model. The results of the scenario analysis provide insights into changes in the carbon emissions from the harvest, trade and production of the wood based products as a result of (i) EU forest conservation and (ii) EU Renewable Energy policies and (iii) maximizing use of wood as environmental friendly material. The main changes in the global carbon emissions are coming from reallocation of the sub regional harvests and changes in the trade of wood and wood based products. Reallocation of forest products manufacturing also play a role in the changes of the carbon emissions. Wednesday

Research paper thumbnail of Competitiveness of the European Forest Sector - a contribution to EFSOS II

As a contribution to the second European Forest Sector Outlook Study (EFSOS II) this study analys... more As a contribution to the second European Forest Sector Outlook Study (EFSOS II) this study analysis the historic and future competitiveness of the European forest sector using the constant market share (CMS) methodology. The analysis is based on bilateral trade data in monetary terms. The historic ex-post analysis covers the years from 1993 to 2008, with a specific focus on the period 2003 to 2008. The scenario analysis is undertaken for the period 2010 to 2030. The basis is given by a reference scenario. It describes a business as usual development. Additionally, as a policy scenario, the effects of the promotion of wood energy on trade and competitiveness are examined. The ex-post analysis shows that most countries of the EFSOS region have had a positive export growth in period 2003-2008. The growth of the world market can be identified as the main driver of the positive development. But also the presence with forest products in growing regional markets has had positive effects. T...

Research paper thumbnail of Impacts of climate policies and energy technology paths on the global wood demand and supply

Research paper thumbnail of A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways

Regional Environmental Change, 2017

Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for ... more Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall sustainable development. The assessment of multiple emerging land use trade-offs is complicated by the fact that land use changes occur and have consequences at local, regional, and even global scale. Outcomes also depend on the underlying socioeconomic trends. We apply a coupled, multi-scale modelling system to assess an increase in nature protection areas as a key policy option in the European Union (EU). The main goal of Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article

Research paper thumbnail of Identifying pathways to visions of future land use in Europe

Regional Environmental Change, 2016

Plausible scenarios of future land use derived from model projections may differ substantially fr... more Plausible scenarios of future land use derived from model projections may differ substantially from what is actually desired by society, and identifying such mismatches is important for identifying policies to resolve them. This paper presents an approach to link explorative projections of future land use for the European Union to normative visions of desired land-use futures. We used the results of 24 scenario projections obtained from seven linked simulation models to explore uncertainty in future land-use developments. Land-use projections were linked to statements made by stakeholders for three normative visions of desired, future land use. The visions differed in the scale of multifunctionality of land use: at European (Best Land in Europe), regional (Regional Connected) or local (Local Multifunctional) level. To identify pathways to these visions, we analysed in which cases projected landuse changes matched with the land-use changes desired in the visions. We identified five pathways to the vision Regional Connected, two pathways to the vision Best Land in Europe, but no pathway to the vision Local Multifunctional. Our results suggest that policies have the ability to Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (

Research paper thumbnail of Some forestry implications of agricultural short-rotation woody crops in the United States

Describes the analysis, results, and some forestry implications on the two economic models, NAPAP... more Describes the analysis, results, and some forestry implications on the two economic models, NAPAP model and USDS POLYSYS.

Research paper thumbnail of Impacts of Reduction of Illegal Logging in European Russia on the EU and European Russia Forest Sector and Trade

Research paper thumbnail of The global forest sector model EFI-GTM - the model structure

Research paper thumbnail of Impacts of forest bioenergy and policies on the forest sector markets in Europe – what do we know?

The main political objectives of EU's renewable strategy are decreased use of fossil energy s... more The main political objectives of EU's renewable strategy are decreased use of fossil energy sources, reduced CO2 emissions and increased energy self sufficiency. Wood based bioenergy plays an important role in this strategy. The potential increase in wood demand for bioenergy production is of high interest for the EU forestry and forest industries due to its impacts on wood prices, profitability of forestry and forest industries, rural employment, recreation and forest ecology. In recent years, several studies have addressed the development of the wood demand for bioenergy, policies affecting it, and the above-mentioned impacts. To facilitate the use of the results by policy makers and other forest and energy sector stakeholders, a synthesis of the studies is in place. What are the policy relevant messages that come out of the studies, and what are the primary issues we lack science based information on? This report seeks addressing these questions, reviewing five recent studies...

Research paper thumbnail of Forests in the global balance-changing paradigms

Research paper thumbnail of Forest Industries in the Russian Federation

World Forests, 1999

The forest sector in Russia is of significance for the economy of the country, accounting as it d... more The forest sector in Russia is of significance for the economy of the country, accounting as it does for 4% of the GDP. Similarly the sector accounts for over 7% of the total industrial labor force of the country (Burdin 1997).

Research paper thumbnail of Wood biomass use for energy in Europe under different assumptions of coal, gas and CO2 emission prices and market conditions

Journal of Forest Economics, 2013

Research paper thumbnail of Impact of the future global scenarios on the EU forest sector development

Research paper thumbnail of The impact of subsidies and carbon pricing on the wood biomass use for energy in the EU

Energy, 2014

EFI-GTM model •Global Forest Sector Model •Partial equilibrium model •Several regional agents max... more EFI-GTM model •Global Forest Sector Model •Partial equilibrium model •Several regional agents maximize their profit/welfare under perfect competition •Recursive model •Dimensions • 36 products (6 wood, 4 rec.paper, 26 forest industry products) and additionally electricity and heat are included • 60 regions (31 in Europe) • 1-3 existing production technologies + new technologies from investments

Research paper thumbnail of PROJECTING FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FOREST SECTOR USING FOREST SECTOR MODEL

The Russian forest sector is currently under pressure of an economic crisis. Average annual produ... more The Russian forest sector is currently under pressure of an economic crisis. Average annual production of the roundwood has decreased about 3 times since 1989. Limited domestic demand for forest products restricts production growth and the development of the technology in forest industries. At the same time forest resources are not fully utilized. However, this situation may change in the future. The key factor affecting the future of the forest sector is annual GDP growth. The PELPS III model is utilized for projecting the future of the Russian forest sector. Preliminary results show that it will take a long time to restore past production levels in the forest industries. The paper also outlines the future development of a forest sector model using a partial equilibrium framework for forest industries and forestry sector. ____________________________________________________________________________________________

Research paper thumbnail of 17 Short-rotation Woody Crops in the USA Forestry Implications of Agricultural

Research paper thumbnail of Future Market Scenarios for Pulpwood Supply from Agricultural Short-Rotation Woody Crops

NAPAP model and USDS POLYSYS models were linked to project future market scenarios of pulpwood su... more NAPAP model and USDS POLYSYS models were linked to project future market scenarios of pulpwood supply from agricultural short-rotation woody crops in the US. Results suggest that pulpwood supply from fast-growing hybrid poplars and cottonwoods will become marginally economical but fairly limited in the next several decades.