Alexey Voinov - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Alexey Voinov

Research paper thumbnail of Localization effects of land use change on hydrological models

Semi-distributed hydrological models generally have the advantages of short calculation times, co... more Semi-distributed hydrological models generally have the advantages of short calculation times, comparative low calibration needs and high model efficiency , but lack the ability to consider localization effects of land use change. A regionalisation of these models allows a sensitivity analysis of the localization effects. HBV-D, a conceptual hydrological model is used in this study. The regionalization for the German

Research paper thumbnail of Development and Application of the Everglades Landscape Model

Modeling Dynamic Systems, 2004

Water management infrastructure and operations have fragmented the greater Everglades into separa... more Water management infrastructure and operations have fragmented the greater Everglades into separate, impounded basins, altering flows and hydropatterns in these internationally recognized wetlands. A significant area of this managed system has experienced anthropogenic eutrophication. This combination of altered hydrology and water quality has interacted to degrade vegetative habitats and other ecological characteristics of the Everglades. As part of a massive plan to "restore" the Everglades, simulation models are being applied to better understand the system's hydrologic and ecological dynamics, evaluating options for restoration plans. One such tool is the Everglades Landscape Model (ELM), a process-based, spatially explicit simulation of ecosystem dynamics across a heterogeneous, 10,000 km 2 region. The model development has proceeded in tandem with advances in Everglades research, improving its algorithms and calibration to best capture dynamics of key landscape attributes. The first spatial application of the model was in an intensively studied subregion along an anthropogenic nutrient gradient. The model captured the spatio-temporal dynamics of hydrology, surface and ground water phosphorus, periphyton biomass and community type, macrophyte biomass and habitat type, and peat accumulation. Refinements to the model have improved its hydrologic and ecological performance, with good calibrations of long term hydrologic and surface water quality dynamics across most of the Everglades landscape. Using this updated version, we evaluated phosphorus loading throughout the Everglades system under two base scenarios. The 1995 base case assumed current management operations, with phosphorus inflow concentrations fixed at their long term, historical average. The 2050 base case assumed future modifications in water management, with all managed inflows to the Everglades having reduced phosphorus concentrations (due to filtering by constructed wetlands). In an example "indicator" subregion that currently is highly eutrophic, the 31-yr simulations predicted that desirable periphyton and macrophyte communities were maintained under the 2050 base case, whereas in the 1995 base case, periphyton biomass and production decreased to negligible levels and macrophytes became extremely dense. The negative periphyton response in the 1995 base case was due to high phosphorus loads and rapid macrophyte growth that shaded this algal community. Along an existing 11 km eutrophication gradient, the model indicated that the 2050 base case had ecologically significant reductions in phosphorus accumulation compared to the 1995 base case. Indicator regions (in Everglades National Park) distant from phosphorus inflow points also exhibited reductions in phosphorus accumulation under the 2050 base case, albeit to a lesser extent due to its distance from phosphorus inflows. The ELM fills a critical information need in Everglades management, and has become an accepted tool in evaluating scenarios of potential restoration of the natural system. Refinements to the model will enable us to evaluate the full suite of ecological responses to management scenarios throughout the greater Everglades.

Research paper thumbnail of Landscape Optimization: Applications of a Spatial Ecosystem Model

Modeling Dynamic Systems, 2004

Rapid population growth, development, and change in land use and land cover have become obvious f... more Rapid population growth, development, and change in land use and land cover have become obvious features of the southern Maryland landscape. This growth and how and where it occurs can affect the amount of increase in point and nonpoint source pollution. ...

Research paper thumbnail of Developing Understanding of Ecological-Economic Systems

Unifying Themes in Complex Systems, 2006

There is growing consensus that the scale of human enterprise has become so large that it is now ... more There is growing consensus that the scale of human enterprise has become so large that it is now threatening to seriously degrade the life support systems which sustain it (www. worldwatch. org). We are driving changes in a number of very complex systems (eg ecological and economic) which are interacting in complex and often unpredictable ways with potentially disastrous consequences. There is significant uncertainty about how things will go in the next few years, but many are convinced that the decisions we make as a ...

Research paper thumbnail of Interaction between Economics and the Environment from the Point of View of Sustainable Development

Sustainable Development of the Lake Baikal Region, 1996

Abstract Operationalizing sustainable development implies operationalizing a broader academic age... more Abstract Operationalizing sustainable development implies operationalizing a broader academic agenda and developing policies and instruments based on this systems approach. With reference to the Lake Baikal region, Russia, the paper describes:(1) definitions of sustainability;(2) the limits of the conventional approach in dealing with sustainability and the extension of the conventional view through the transdisciplinary field of ecological economics;(3) the research agenda to develop ecological economics and ...

Research paper thumbnail of Chapter Twelve Building a Community Modelling and Information Sharing Culture

Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment, 2008

Research paper thumbnail of Outstanding research issues in integration and participation for water resources planning and management

Research paper thumbnail of Calibration of Large Spatial Models: A Multistage, Multiobjective Optimization Technique

Modeling Dynamic Systems, 2004

Complex physically based simulation models are increasingly applied to understand ecological syst... more Complex physically based simulation models are increasingly applied to understand ecological system dynamics. Applications of ecological modeling techniques range from simple, small models with a limited set of hypotheses and assumptions, often independent of measured data, to complex, predictive simulation models describing the object of study in fine detail and relying heavily on the integration of existing data for initialization and testing. The latter approach is often cited as the only way to tackle predictive studies of complex ...

Research paper thumbnail of Spatial Simulation Using the SME

Modeling Dynamic Systems, 2004

This chapter describes an integrated environment for high-performance spatial modeling, called th... more This chapter describes an integrated environment for high-performance spatial modeling, called the Spatial Modeling Environment (SME)(Maxwell and Costanza, 1994, 1995, 1997b). This environment, which transparently links iconbased modeling environments with advanced computing resources, allows scientists to develop models in a user-friendly, graphical environment, requiring very little knowledge of computers or computer programming. Automatic code generators construct spatial simulations and enable ...

Research paper thumbnail of Introduction: Spatially Explicit Landscape Simulation Models

Modeling Dynamic Systems, 2004

Many, if not most, management decisions concerning the environment affect and are affected by the... more Many, if not most, management decisions concerning the environment affect and are affected by the landscape. City and county planning authorities make decisions about land use and infrastructure that directly affect the landscape. Farmers make decisions about what to grow and how to grow it that affect and are affected by the landscape. Individual homeowners and businesses make decisions about their own behavior that affects and is affected by the landscape. Therefore, understanding and modeling the spatial patterns of ...

Research paper thumbnail of Bridging the gaps: developing tools for environmental policy and management

Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment

Research paper thumbnail of Chapter Three Bridging the Gaps Between Design and Use: Developing Tools to Support Environmental Management and Policy

Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment, 2008

Research paper thumbnail of An Agent-Based Model for Exploring Land Market Mechanisms for Coastal Zone Management

Applied Physics B-lasers and Optics, 2008

This paper presents an agent-based model of a land market (ALMA-C) to simulate the emergence of l... more This paper presents an agent-based model of a land market (ALMA-C) to simulate the emergence of land prices and urban land patterns from bottom-up. Our model mimics individual decisions to buy and to sell land depending on economic, sociological and political factors as well as on the characteristics of the spatial environment. To this we add ecological and environmental considerations

Research paper thumbnail of A Community Approach to Earth Systems Modeling

Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 2010

Research paper thumbnail of Applications of Interactive Integrated Assessment and Modeling to Design Sustainable Development Strategies for Arctic Watersheds

A US-Russian research effort has been started in the Kola Peninsula to increase understanding of ... more A US-Russian research effort has been started in the Kola Peninsula to increase understanding of the role of human dynamics on ecosystem functions and explore development strategies to enhance ecosystem health, ecological sustainability and economic diversity. The project focuses on the Imandra Lake watershed. More specifically, four research questions are examined:

Research paper thumbnail of Spatially Explicit Modeling of Land Use Specific Phosphorus Transport Pathways to Improve TMDL Load Estimates and Implementation Planning

Water Resources Management, 2010

Diffuse pollution from urban stormwater and agricultural runoff are among the leading causes of w... more Diffuse pollution from urban stormwater and agricultural runoff are among the leading causes of water pollution in the USA. A process-oriented, stakeholder-driven research approach was implemented in the small heterogeneous watershed of St. Albans Bay, Vermont to model the relative load of phosphorus from all sources, including diffuse transport pathways, and compared to goals and assumptions outlined by a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) developed for phosphorus in Lake Champlain. Mass-balance and dynamic landscape simulation models were used to describe the distribution of the average annual phosphorus load to streams (10.57 t/year) in terms of space, time, and transport process. The majority of the phosphorus load comes from two subwatersheds dominated by clay soils, Stevens and Jewett Brooks. Dissolved phosphorus in surface runoff from the agricultural landscape, driven by high soil phosphorus concentrations, accounts for 41% of the total load to watershed streams. Direct discharge from farmsteads and stormwater loads, primarily from road sand wash-off, are also significant sources. Results reported in this study could help target watershed interventions both in terms of the types and locations of recommended best management practices (BMPs). The study offers an approach to attaining TMDL diffuse pollution targets in a cost-effective and participatory manner and could be replicated for other TMDL processes around the country.

Research paper thumbnail of Patuxent landscape model: 2. Model development — nutrients, plants, and detritus

Water Resources, 2007

Abstract We developed a spatially explicit, process-based model of the Patuxent river watershed i... more Abstract We developed a spatially explicit, process-based model of the Patuxent river watershed in Maryland, and its subwatersheds to integrate data and knowledge over several spatial, temporal and complexity scales, and to serve as an aid to regional management. The model was developed using the Library of Hydro-Ecological Modules (LHEM, http://giee. uvm. edu/LHEM). In this paper we continue the description of the LHEM modules focusing on nutrient cycling, vegetation growth, decomposition, and other processes, both ...

Research paper thumbnail of Patuxent Landscape Model: 4. Model application

Water Resources, 2007

Using the LHEM/SME the Patuxent Landscape Model (PLM) was built to simulate fundamental ecologica... more Using the LHEM/SME the Patuxent Landscape Model (PLM) was built to simulate fundamental ecological processes in the watershed scale driven by temporal (nutrient loadings, climatic conditions) and spatial (land use patterns) forcings. The model addresses the effects of both the magnitude and spatial patterns of land use change and agricultural practices on hydrology, plant productivity, and nutrient cycling in the landscape.

Research paper thumbnail of Toward understanding the human dimensions of the rapidly changing arctic system: insights and approaches from five HARC projects

Regional Environmental Change, 2007

Human dimensions research focuses on the interrelationships between humans and the environment. T... more Human dimensions research focuses on the interrelationships between humans and the environment. To date, human dimensions research in arctic regions has concentrated primarily on local events and contexts. As such, it complements analysis elsewhere of adaptation and sustainable development within broad institutional, social, and environmental contexts. This paper reviews five projects from the Human Dimensions of the Arctic System (HARC) initiative, established by the US National Science Foundation in 1997. Common themes and findings are highlighted: climatic variations or change affect societies through interactions with human activities; population dynamics provide key quantitative indicators of social impacts and well being; and specific impacts and responses are the result of complex, context-sensitive interactions. Congruent approaches to the challenges of interdisciplinary research are also identified: multivariate time plots aid the integration of data, retrospective and prospective studies are part of a continuum and reinforce one another, comparative studies are essential for understanding general principles of human dimensions, and arctic residents can play a vital role in research and action.

Research paper thumbnail of Synthesis of a New Element with Atomic Number Z=117

Physical Review Letters, 2010

The discovery of a new chemical element with atomic number Z ¼ 117 is reported. The isotopes 293 ... more The discovery of a new chemical element with atomic number Z ¼ 117 is reported. The isotopes 293 117 and 294 117 were produced in fusion reactions between 48 Ca and 249 Bk. Decay chains involving 11 new nuclei were identified by means of the Dubna gas-filled recoil separator. The measured decay properties show a strong rise of stability for heavier isotopes with Z ! 111, validating the concept of the long sought island of enhanced stability for superheavy nuclei.

Research paper thumbnail of Localization effects of land use change on hydrological models

Semi-distributed hydrological models generally have the advantages of short calculation times, co... more Semi-distributed hydrological models generally have the advantages of short calculation times, comparative low calibration needs and high model efficiency , but lack the ability to consider localization effects of land use change. A regionalisation of these models allows a sensitivity analysis of the localization effects. HBV-D, a conceptual hydrological model is used in this study. The regionalization for the German

Research paper thumbnail of Development and Application of the Everglades Landscape Model

Modeling Dynamic Systems, 2004

Water management infrastructure and operations have fragmented the greater Everglades into separa... more Water management infrastructure and operations have fragmented the greater Everglades into separate, impounded basins, altering flows and hydropatterns in these internationally recognized wetlands. A significant area of this managed system has experienced anthropogenic eutrophication. This combination of altered hydrology and water quality has interacted to degrade vegetative habitats and other ecological characteristics of the Everglades. As part of a massive plan to "restore" the Everglades, simulation models are being applied to better understand the system's hydrologic and ecological dynamics, evaluating options for restoration plans. One such tool is the Everglades Landscape Model (ELM), a process-based, spatially explicit simulation of ecosystem dynamics across a heterogeneous, 10,000 km 2 region. The model development has proceeded in tandem with advances in Everglades research, improving its algorithms and calibration to best capture dynamics of key landscape attributes. The first spatial application of the model was in an intensively studied subregion along an anthropogenic nutrient gradient. The model captured the spatio-temporal dynamics of hydrology, surface and ground water phosphorus, periphyton biomass and community type, macrophyte biomass and habitat type, and peat accumulation. Refinements to the model have improved its hydrologic and ecological performance, with good calibrations of long term hydrologic and surface water quality dynamics across most of the Everglades landscape. Using this updated version, we evaluated phosphorus loading throughout the Everglades system under two base scenarios. The 1995 base case assumed current management operations, with phosphorus inflow concentrations fixed at their long term, historical average. The 2050 base case assumed future modifications in water management, with all managed inflows to the Everglades having reduced phosphorus concentrations (due to filtering by constructed wetlands). In an example "indicator" subregion that currently is highly eutrophic, the 31-yr simulations predicted that desirable periphyton and macrophyte communities were maintained under the 2050 base case, whereas in the 1995 base case, periphyton biomass and production decreased to negligible levels and macrophytes became extremely dense. The negative periphyton response in the 1995 base case was due to high phosphorus loads and rapid macrophyte growth that shaded this algal community. Along an existing 11 km eutrophication gradient, the model indicated that the 2050 base case had ecologically significant reductions in phosphorus accumulation compared to the 1995 base case. Indicator regions (in Everglades National Park) distant from phosphorus inflow points also exhibited reductions in phosphorus accumulation under the 2050 base case, albeit to a lesser extent due to its distance from phosphorus inflows. The ELM fills a critical information need in Everglades management, and has become an accepted tool in evaluating scenarios of potential restoration of the natural system. Refinements to the model will enable us to evaluate the full suite of ecological responses to management scenarios throughout the greater Everglades.

Research paper thumbnail of Landscape Optimization: Applications of a Spatial Ecosystem Model

Modeling Dynamic Systems, 2004

Rapid population growth, development, and change in land use and land cover have become obvious f... more Rapid population growth, development, and change in land use and land cover have become obvious features of the southern Maryland landscape. This growth and how and where it occurs can affect the amount of increase in point and nonpoint source pollution. ...

Research paper thumbnail of Developing Understanding of Ecological-Economic Systems

Unifying Themes in Complex Systems, 2006

There is growing consensus that the scale of human enterprise has become so large that it is now ... more There is growing consensus that the scale of human enterprise has become so large that it is now threatening to seriously degrade the life support systems which sustain it (www. worldwatch. org). We are driving changes in a number of very complex systems (eg ecological and economic) which are interacting in complex and often unpredictable ways with potentially disastrous consequences. There is significant uncertainty about how things will go in the next few years, but many are convinced that the decisions we make as a ...

Research paper thumbnail of Interaction between Economics and the Environment from the Point of View of Sustainable Development

Sustainable Development of the Lake Baikal Region, 1996

Abstract Operationalizing sustainable development implies operationalizing a broader academic age... more Abstract Operationalizing sustainable development implies operationalizing a broader academic agenda and developing policies and instruments based on this systems approach. With reference to the Lake Baikal region, Russia, the paper describes:(1) definitions of sustainability;(2) the limits of the conventional approach in dealing with sustainability and the extension of the conventional view through the transdisciplinary field of ecological economics;(3) the research agenda to develop ecological economics and ...

Research paper thumbnail of Chapter Twelve Building a Community Modelling and Information Sharing Culture

Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment, 2008

Research paper thumbnail of Outstanding research issues in integration and participation for water resources planning and management

Research paper thumbnail of Calibration of Large Spatial Models: A Multistage, Multiobjective Optimization Technique

Modeling Dynamic Systems, 2004

Complex physically based simulation models are increasingly applied to understand ecological syst... more Complex physically based simulation models are increasingly applied to understand ecological system dynamics. Applications of ecological modeling techniques range from simple, small models with a limited set of hypotheses and assumptions, often independent of measured data, to complex, predictive simulation models describing the object of study in fine detail and relying heavily on the integration of existing data for initialization and testing. The latter approach is often cited as the only way to tackle predictive studies of complex ...

Research paper thumbnail of Spatial Simulation Using the SME

Modeling Dynamic Systems, 2004

This chapter describes an integrated environment for high-performance spatial modeling, called th... more This chapter describes an integrated environment for high-performance spatial modeling, called the Spatial Modeling Environment (SME)(Maxwell and Costanza, 1994, 1995, 1997b). This environment, which transparently links iconbased modeling environments with advanced computing resources, allows scientists to develop models in a user-friendly, graphical environment, requiring very little knowledge of computers or computer programming. Automatic code generators construct spatial simulations and enable ...

Research paper thumbnail of Introduction: Spatially Explicit Landscape Simulation Models

Modeling Dynamic Systems, 2004

Many, if not most, management decisions concerning the environment affect and are affected by the... more Many, if not most, management decisions concerning the environment affect and are affected by the landscape. City and county planning authorities make decisions about land use and infrastructure that directly affect the landscape. Farmers make decisions about what to grow and how to grow it that affect and are affected by the landscape. Individual homeowners and businesses make decisions about their own behavior that affects and is affected by the landscape. Therefore, understanding and modeling the spatial patterns of ...

Research paper thumbnail of Bridging the gaps: developing tools for environmental policy and management

Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment

Research paper thumbnail of Chapter Three Bridging the Gaps Between Design and Use: Developing Tools to Support Environmental Management and Policy

Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment, 2008

Research paper thumbnail of An Agent-Based Model for Exploring Land Market Mechanisms for Coastal Zone Management

Applied Physics B-lasers and Optics, 2008

This paper presents an agent-based model of a land market (ALMA-C) to simulate the emergence of l... more This paper presents an agent-based model of a land market (ALMA-C) to simulate the emergence of land prices and urban land patterns from bottom-up. Our model mimics individual decisions to buy and to sell land depending on economic, sociological and political factors as well as on the characteristics of the spatial environment. To this we add ecological and environmental considerations

Research paper thumbnail of A Community Approach to Earth Systems Modeling

Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 2010

Research paper thumbnail of Applications of Interactive Integrated Assessment and Modeling to Design Sustainable Development Strategies for Arctic Watersheds

A US-Russian research effort has been started in the Kola Peninsula to increase understanding of ... more A US-Russian research effort has been started in the Kola Peninsula to increase understanding of the role of human dynamics on ecosystem functions and explore development strategies to enhance ecosystem health, ecological sustainability and economic diversity. The project focuses on the Imandra Lake watershed. More specifically, four research questions are examined:

Research paper thumbnail of Spatially Explicit Modeling of Land Use Specific Phosphorus Transport Pathways to Improve TMDL Load Estimates and Implementation Planning

Water Resources Management, 2010

Diffuse pollution from urban stormwater and agricultural runoff are among the leading causes of w... more Diffuse pollution from urban stormwater and agricultural runoff are among the leading causes of water pollution in the USA. A process-oriented, stakeholder-driven research approach was implemented in the small heterogeneous watershed of St. Albans Bay, Vermont to model the relative load of phosphorus from all sources, including diffuse transport pathways, and compared to goals and assumptions outlined by a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) developed for phosphorus in Lake Champlain. Mass-balance and dynamic landscape simulation models were used to describe the distribution of the average annual phosphorus load to streams (10.57 t/year) in terms of space, time, and transport process. The majority of the phosphorus load comes from two subwatersheds dominated by clay soils, Stevens and Jewett Brooks. Dissolved phosphorus in surface runoff from the agricultural landscape, driven by high soil phosphorus concentrations, accounts for 41% of the total load to watershed streams. Direct discharge from farmsteads and stormwater loads, primarily from road sand wash-off, are also significant sources. Results reported in this study could help target watershed interventions both in terms of the types and locations of recommended best management practices (BMPs). The study offers an approach to attaining TMDL diffuse pollution targets in a cost-effective and participatory manner and could be replicated for other TMDL processes around the country.

Research paper thumbnail of Patuxent landscape model: 2. Model development — nutrients, plants, and detritus

Water Resources, 2007

Abstract We developed a spatially explicit, process-based model of the Patuxent river watershed i... more Abstract We developed a spatially explicit, process-based model of the Patuxent river watershed in Maryland, and its subwatersheds to integrate data and knowledge over several spatial, temporal and complexity scales, and to serve as an aid to regional management. The model was developed using the Library of Hydro-Ecological Modules (LHEM, http://giee. uvm. edu/LHEM). In this paper we continue the description of the LHEM modules focusing on nutrient cycling, vegetation growth, decomposition, and other processes, both ...

Research paper thumbnail of Patuxent Landscape Model: 4. Model application

Water Resources, 2007

Using the LHEM/SME the Patuxent Landscape Model (PLM) was built to simulate fundamental ecologica... more Using the LHEM/SME the Patuxent Landscape Model (PLM) was built to simulate fundamental ecological processes in the watershed scale driven by temporal (nutrient loadings, climatic conditions) and spatial (land use patterns) forcings. The model addresses the effects of both the magnitude and spatial patterns of land use change and agricultural practices on hydrology, plant productivity, and nutrient cycling in the landscape.

Research paper thumbnail of Toward understanding the human dimensions of the rapidly changing arctic system: insights and approaches from five HARC projects

Regional Environmental Change, 2007

Human dimensions research focuses on the interrelationships between humans and the environment. T... more Human dimensions research focuses on the interrelationships between humans and the environment. To date, human dimensions research in arctic regions has concentrated primarily on local events and contexts. As such, it complements analysis elsewhere of adaptation and sustainable development within broad institutional, social, and environmental contexts. This paper reviews five projects from the Human Dimensions of the Arctic System (HARC) initiative, established by the US National Science Foundation in 1997. Common themes and findings are highlighted: climatic variations or change affect societies through interactions with human activities; population dynamics provide key quantitative indicators of social impacts and well being; and specific impacts and responses are the result of complex, context-sensitive interactions. Congruent approaches to the challenges of interdisciplinary research are also identified: multivariate time plots aid the integration of data, retrospective and prospective studies are part of a continuum and reinforce one another, comparative studies are essential for understanding general principles of human dimensions, and arctic residents can play a vital role in research and action.

Research paper thumbnail of Synthesis of a New Element with Atomic Number Z=117

Physical Review Letters, 2010

The discovery of a new chemical element with atomic number Z ¼ 117 is reported. The isotopes 293 ... more The discovery of a new chemical element with atomic number Z ¼ 117 is reported. The isotopes 293 117 and 294 117 were produced in fusion reactions between 48 Ca and 249 Bk. Decay chains involving 11 new nuclei were identified by means of the Dubna gas-filled recoil separator. The measured decay properties show a strong rise of stability for heavier isotopes with Z ! 111, validating the concept of the long sought island of enhanced stability for superheavy nuclei.