Allan Auclair - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Allan Auclair

Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 1990

A comparison of declining forests in Alaska, British columbia, and the Pacific Northwest United S... more A comparison of declining forests in Alaska, British columbia, and the Pacific Northwest United States to forest declines in eastern North America indicated that strong similarities existed and justified the use of the western forest region as an 'acid rain' control. The current level of wet acidic deposition over the western region was one-quarter that of eastern Canada and the United States. The onset of crown dieback on Chamaecyparis nootkatensis (1900) and Pinus monticola (1936) did not relate to the incidence of regional air pollution but to extreme climatic variation. The injury mechanism differentiating persistent decline on Pinus monticola from sporadic but transient dieback, which was observed on a larger number of conifer and deciduous tree species, was believed to be cavitation. This dysfunction of the xylem was induced by anomalous winter thaw-freeze conditions in 1936 followed by high summer temperatures and evapotranspiration stress in that and subsequent years. Similar extreme climatic conditions were present at the onset of forest declines in eastern North America and central Europe which suggests that the climate-cavitation-forest decline mechanism may be universal.

Prediction of Cattle Fever Tick Outbreaks in United States Quarantine Zone

Novel Hurricane Hypothesis Predicts US Cattle Fever Tick Outbreaks

Data Sources: Time series data on cattle fever tick incidence, 1959-2017, and climate variables J... more Data Sources: Time series data on cattle fever tick incidence, 1959-2017, and climate variables January 1950 through December 2017, form the core information in this analysis. All variables are monthly averages or sums over the fiscal year (FY), October 01 (of the prior calendar year, y-1) through September 30 of the current calendar year (y). Annual records on detections of Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus and R. (B). annulatus (cattle fever tick, CFT) on premises within the Permanent Quarantine Zone (PQZ) were obtained from CFTEP (USDA-APHIS and the USDA- ARS). Details of tick survey procedures, CFTEP program goals and history, and the geographic extent of the Permanent Quarantine Zone are in SI (Introduction, details). Solar radio flux data as well as Pacific Ocean El Niño Oscillation index data, 1950-2017, are accessed at from NOAA ESRL (2018b). Predicted values for on-going Solar Cycle 24 are from NOAA SWPC (2018). Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index (ACE) data are from the NOA...

Ch. 7: Food Safety, Nutrition

Intraspecific Diameter Differentiation as a Measure of Species Replacement Potential

Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 1974

A method is developed to measure species replacement potentials in forest vegetation from tree di... more A method is developed to measure species replacement potentials in forest vegetation from tree diameter records taken at a single point in time. Replacement potentials are based on mean diameter differentiation within a species when occurring with other species. The technique incorporates a correction for differences in growth rate and maximum size between species.Successional trends established for Menominee County, Wisconsin and site-successional relations examined by cluster and principal components analyses agreed closely with results of earlier studies in the Lake States. The applicability and limitations of the method are discussed.

Ecological Modelling, 1986

A mathematical model was formulated to predict monthly and spatial changes in total phosphorus co... more A mathematical model was formulated to predict monthly and spatial changes in total phosphorus concentrations in the epilimnion of Lake Memphremagog, a long and narrow lake transversing the Canada-United States border. Computer experiments were designed to elucidate phosphorus loading mechanisms and to assess the effects of tertiary treatment and increased cultural eutrophication. The initial model, based purely on two equations of advective transport, showed a rapid exponential decrease in total phosphorus from the source to the outlet. The pattern was similar to observed trends but predicted values were too low. Possible discrepancies due to (1) convectional mixing, (2) release of phosphorus from the lake sediments, and (3) particle size effects were examined. Characteristics of the model were evaluated using correlation, a 'predictability' index, and simple differences between predicted and observed values. Simulations assuming 25% and 100% mixing of the water column predicted total phosphorus levels twice and 1.5 times greater than observed values, respectively. Correlations and predictability were low. Simulations assuming phosphorus release from the sediments (based on temperature and dissolved phosphorus functions reported in the literature) greatly improved the correspondence between measured and predicted values. Correlation and predictability were twice as high for the convectional model and three to ten times as high as for the initial run. Overall correlation and predictability also increased from the initial model if large particle size and rapid settling were assumed. Tertiary treatment resulted in a 49% reduction near the source and a 24% reduction at the far end of the lake. Little reduction occurred in the summer. A 20% increase in cultural eutrophication indicated an annual average increase of 15% could be expected. Summer phosphorus levels increased 25% indicating the effect was concentrated in the growing season.

Population Displacement and Migration in Developing Countries: An Exploratory Study in the Development of an Early Warning Decision Support System

Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 1993

An overview of forest diebacks in regions of the Pacific Rim strongly implicated extreme climatic... more An overview of forest diebacks in regions of the Pacific Rim strongly implicated extreme climatic fluctuations as a cause of dieback in the absence of significant acidic deposition and 03 pollution. There was strong circumstantial evidence that extreme moisture fluctuations had incited cavitation injury on Eucalyptus, Metrosideros and Nothofagus species with recent dieback. The onset and intensification of crown dieback on Metrosideros in Hawaii related directly to the incidence of extreme rainfall followed by prolonged (2 to 4 weeks) clear, hot, dry weather. Research needs to substantiate the role of an irreversible cavitation dysfunction of the xylem as a mechanism of persistent crown dieback were discussed.

Climate change, including rising temperatures and changes in weather extremes, is expected to inc... more Climate change, including rising temperatures and changes in weather extremes, is expected to increase the exposure of food to certain pathogens and toxins [Likely, High Confidence]. This will increase the risk of negative health impacts [Likely, Medium Confidence], but actual incidence of foodborne illness will depend on the efficacy of practices that safeguard food in the United States [High Confidence]. Chemical Contaminants in the Food Chain Key Finding 2: Climate change will increase human exposure to chemical contaminants in food through several pathways [Likely, Medium Confidence]. Elevated sea surface temperatures will lead to greater accumulation of mercury in seafood [Likely, Medium Confidence], while increases in extreme weather events will introduce contaminants into the food chain [Likely, Medium Confidence]. Rising carbon dioxide concentrations and climate change will alter incidence and distribution of pests, parasites, and microbes [Very Likely, High Confidence], leading to increases in the use of pesticides and veterinary drugs [Likely, Medium Confidence]. Rising Carbon Dioxide Lowers Nutritional Value of Food Key Finding 3: The nutritional value of agriculturally important food crops, such as wheat and rice, will decrease as rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide continue to reduce the concentrations of protein and essential minerals in most plant species [Very Likely, High Confidence]. Extreme Weather Limits Access to Safe Foods Key Finding 4: Increases in the frequency or intensity of some extreme weather events associated with climate change will increase disruptions of food distribution by damaging existing infrastructure or slowing food shipments [Likely, High Confidence]. These impediments lead to increased risk for food damage, spoilage, or contamination, which will limit availability of and access to safe and nutritious food depending on the extent of disruption and the resilience of food distribution infrastructure [Medium Confidence]. This chapter focuses on some of the less reported aspects of food security, specifically, the impacts of climate change on food safety, nutrition, and distribution in the context of human health in the United States. While ingestion of contaminated seafood is discussed in this chapter, details on the exposure pathways of water related pathogens (for example, through recreational or drinking water) are discussed in Chapter 6: Water-Related Illness. Systems and processes related to food safety, nutrition, and production are inextricably linked to their physical and biological environment. 5, 8 Although production is important, for most developed countries such as the United States, food shortages are uncommon; rather, nutritional quality and food safety are the primary health concerns. 5, 9 Certain populations, such as the poor, children, and Indigenous populations, may be more vulnerable to climate impacts on food safety, nutrition, and distribution (see also Ch. 9: Populations of Concern).

This volume is a product of the Social and Economic Development Group of the Middle East and Nort... more This volume is a product of the Social and Economic Development Group of the Middle East and North Africa Region of the World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author (s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission promptly.

Internationale Revue der gesamten Hydrobiologie und Hydrographie, 1977

Cluster analytic techniques were employed to define significant ecological groups of benthic spec... more Cluster analytic techniques were employed to define significant ecological groups of benthic species sampled in 2237 0.5 m × 1 m quadrats on a submerged barrier reef located off the Barbados west coast. For measures of species cover, number of colonies, presence‐absence, and cover of dead skeletal material, Lance and Williams' flexible sorting procedure defined eight species groups. Only four of these groups could be interpreted with confidence.Resolution of species groups increased with increasing environmental severity and decreased with decreasing species abundance. Highly resolved groups under strong environmental limitation included an Agaricia lamarcki‐sponge‐antipatharian association on deep outer slopes and a distinctive Acropora cervicornis‐Madracis mirabilis‐rubble association of ridge‐top positions. The next two groups, in order of resolution, differentiated under strong competitive interaction. Associations dominated by Siderastrea siderea‐Montastrea cavernosa and Mo...

Role of climate in the dieback of northern hardwoods

Predicting dieback in U.S. forests: concepts and application of a forest health decision system

There are important reasons to predict accurately the onset and progression of forest dieback epi... more There are important reasons to predict accurately the onset and progression of forest dieback episodes in the U.S. and elsewhere. These include extensive ongoing dieback and expectations of increased mortality as climate becomes warmer, drier, and more variable. Earlier work showed that dieback episodes in U.S. northern hardwoods are incited by root mortality caused by soil frost; effects of root injury are then exacerbated by drought in the following growing season. A test model is described that uses routinely updated NDVI, snow depth, minimum air temperature, and percent soil moisture to estimate risk of dieback in Maine. A computer animation is made using 10day updates of these parameters available on the USDA FAS web site (http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/ cropexplorer) to predict the location and severity of potential episodes in the state. I demonstrate that the changing frequency of winter soil frost and summer drought long term (1920 to 2007) accurately predicts actual dieback levels as reconstructed from field records. Further verification is made using meteorological records from 1991 to 1995 at Portland, ME, to predict a dieback episode there in 1993; both snow cover / minimum air temperature / PDSI and SHAW simulation of soil frost and soil moisture correctly depict the event. I discuss applications of these findings to predict dieback being tracked annually by the U.S. Forest Health Monitoring Program. The goal is to help forest managers identify patterns of risk early to enable timely decisions on intervention and treatment.

Ecological Studies, 2000

Decline diseases are intimately linked to stress and environmental change. There is strong eviden... more Decline diseases are intimately linked to stress and environmental change. There is strong evidence that, as a category, decline diseases have increased significantly in response to the climate, air chemistry, and other changes documented in the northeastern United States over the past century, and particularly the last two decades. No other forest response to environmental change and stress is expected to be as dramatic. Decline diseases occur in response to multiple, often overlapping and interacting, stressors that typify the ongoing and future environmental changes expected in the Northeast. Forest declines have a special significance in the Northeast since, more than in any other region, they form the conceptual and experimental basis on which the theories and models of decline diseases have evolved. New significant scientific advances from recent research in the Northeast hold considerable promise for better understanding and effective treatment of these complicated diseases. Several studies are in progress on the development of an early warning of the risk to dieback and on innovative experiments on managing and adapting to future declines (Auclair, 1997).

Twitter as an Indicator of Bilateral Relations: National Boundaries and Online Behavior

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012

The patterns by which information is produced and consumed are strongly linked to social conditio... more The patterns by which information is produced and consumed are strongly linked to social conditions. This paper examines how national boundaries affect the behavior of Twitter’s user-base. It aims to quantify the effect of various social, economic and political conditions on user interests while expanding a general and applicable model of the use of social media, e.g. Twitter, to alternate policy areas not limited to international development and relations.

Pathogenic Landscape of Transboundary Zoonotic Diseases in the Mexicoâ€“US Border Along the Rio Grande

Frontiers in Public Health, 2014

Southwestern Entomologist, 2014

As part of a biological control program for the invasive weed, Arundo donax L., several genotypic... more As part of a biological control program for the invasive weed, Arundo donax L., several genotypically unique populations of the parthenogenetic stemgalling wasp, Tetramesa romana Walker (Hymenoptera: Eurytomidae), from Spain and France were released in an infested riparian zone along the Rio Grande from Brownsville to Del Rio, TX. An adventive population of the wasp of unknown origin with limited distribution in Texas was also discovered, evaluated, and released as part of the program. More than 1.2 million wasps representing the mixture of genotypes were aerially released from 2009 to 2011. Wasps dispersed from their original release locations and now have a continuous distribution along the Rio Grande from Brownsville to Del Rio, and have dispersed throughout most of Central Texas with satellite populations as far west as San Angelo (Tom Green County), north as far as Kaufman (Kaufman County), and east to Navasota (Grimes County). The most successful genotype (#4) represented 390 of the 409 wasps recovered and matched both an imported population from the Mediterranean coast of Spain and an adventive population established in Texas before the start of the biological control program. Several other European genotypes of the wasp released in the program apparently failed to establish. This result demonstrated the benefits of evaluating and releasing the maximum genetic diversity of the biological control agent in the introduced range. Abundance of T. romana on the Rio Grande from Laredo to Del Rio averaged 190% more in 2013-2014 compared to a similar study in 2008-2009 before release of the European wasps. A favorability index was developed that showed that conditions from 1969 to 1977 would have been adverse to the wasp; conditions after 2009 were more favorable. Climate matching predicts the wasp will disperse throughout the southern U.S. and Mexico.

Integrated Strategy for Sustainable Cattle Fever Tick Eradication in USA is Required to Mitigate the Impact of Global Change

Frontiers in Physiology, 2012

Diversity Relations of Upland Forests in the Western Great Lakes Area

The American Naturalist, 1971

... 1971 DIVERSITY RELATIONS OF UPLAND FORESTS IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA Allan N. Au clair*... more ... 1971 DIVERSITY RELATIONS OF UPLAND FORESTS IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA Allan N. Au clair* and F. Glenn Goff! ... employed are those assembled at the University of Wisconsin plant ecology laboratory from previously published studies: Curtis and Mcintosh ...