Andrew Powell - Profile on Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Andrew Powell
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007
On the determinants of international currency choice : will the euro dominate the world? / by Mat... more On the determinants of international currency choice : will the euro dominate the world? / by Matteo Bobba, Giuseppe Della Corte, Andrew Powell. p. cm. (Research Department Working paper series ; 611) Includes bibliographical references. 1. Monetary policy. 2. International finance.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012
The Inter-American Development Bank Technical Notes encompass a wide range of best practices, pro... more The Inter-American Development Bank Technical Notes encompass a wide range of best practices, project evaluations, lessons learned, case studies, methodological notes, and other documents of a technical nature. The information and opinions presented in these publications are entirely those of the author(s), and no endorsement by the Inter-American Development Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the countries they represent is expressed or implied.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2009
This paper may be freely reproduced provided credit is given to the Research Department, Inter-Am... more This paper may be freely reproduced provided credit is given to the Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank. The Research Department (RES) produces a quarterly newsletter, IDEA (Ideas for Development in the Americas), as well as working papers and books on diverse economic issues.
The World Bank Economic Review, 2002
respectively. The authors would like to thank George McAndless and Guillermo Escudé for comments,... more respectively. The authors would like to thank George McAndless and Guillermo Escudé for comments, Christian Castro and Matías Gutierrez Girault for assistance, and two anonymous referees for invaluable comments. All remaining errors remain their own. The opinions expressed in this article are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Central Bank of Argentina or any other institution with which they are affiliated.
The Economic Journal, 2010
This paper uses simple regression techniques to make an initial assessment of the monetary damage... more This paper uses simple regression techniques to make an initial assessment of the monetary damages caused by the January 12, 2010 earthquake that struck Haiti. Damages are estimated for a disaster with both 200,000 and 250,000 total dead and missing (i.e., the range of mortality that the earthquake is estimated to have caused) using Haiti's economic and demographic data. The base estimate is US$8.1bn for a death toll of 250,000, but for several reasons this may be a lowerbound estimate. An estimate of US$13.9bn for the same death toll is within statistical error. While the results are subject to many caveats, the implications of such an estimate are significant. Raising such a figure will require many donorsbilateral, multilateral and private. Hence excellent coordination of funding and execution will be the key to ensuring the efficient use of funds.
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003
Fi in na an nz za as s
International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2012
If rating agencies add no new information to markets, their actions are not a public policy conce... more If rating agencies add no new information to markets, their actions are not a public policy concern. But as rating changes may be anticipated, testing whether ratings add value is not straightforward. This paper argues that ratings and spreads are both noisy signals of fundamentals and suggest ratings add value if, controlling for spreads, they help explain other variables. The paper additionally analyzes the different actions (ratings and outlooks) of the three leading agencies for sovereign debt, also considering the differing effects of more or less anticipated events. The results are consistent across a wide range of tests. Ratings do matter and hence how the market for ratings functions may be a public policy concern.
Banco Central de la República …, 1997
The literature on bank runs is divided into those who suggest that depositors can discriminate we... more The literature on bank runs is divided into those who suggest that depositors can discriminate well between good and bad banks and those who stress that, due to asymmetric information problems, depositors may run a perfectly good bank when a bad bank in the same system ...
SSRN Electronic Journal, 1996
The views and interpretations in this document are those of the authors and should not be attribu... more The views and interpretations in this document are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Inter-American Development Bank, or to any individual acting on its behalf. This paper may be freely reproduced provided credit is given to the Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank. The Research Department (RES) produces a quarterly newsletter, IDEA (Ideas for Development in the Americas), as well as working papers and books on diverse economic issues.
Theory suggests both resilience and fragility in banking networks. This paper finds both, exploit... more Theory suggests both resilience and fragility in banking networks. This paper finds both, exploiting a new database of cross-border syndicated lending to developing countries from 1993 to 2017. Shocks propagate via co-lenders driven by central players, but shocks impacting fringe banks have little impact. The global financial crisis and the appearance of South-South lenders prompted a decline in network centrality, suggesting greater resilience to normal shocks. Multilateral Development Banks may play a catalytic role, but their small size limits their ability to mitigate shock propagation. The ongoing Covid-19 crisis is not a normal shock, is hitting central players and will likely provoke significant contagion.
Journal of Banking & Finance, 2014
Several European countries face challenges reminiscent of those faced by the emerging economies o... more Several European countries face challenges reminiscent of those faced by the emerging economies of Latin America. The economic booms in some peripheral Euro-zone countries financed by large capital inflows; the credit and asset price booms and then the busts including Sudden Stops in capital flows; the strong interaction between sovereign debt and domestic banking systems; the role of foreign banks and contagion; and all in the context of a fixed exchange rate, are familiar plotlines for Latin American audiences. For those Euro-zone countries that built up large Euro-denominated external liabilities, Latin America's experience is particularly relevant and worrisome. Still, Europe may be in a better position to navigate a path out of the crisis given cooperative mechanisms that were absent in Latin America, particularly the availability of massive liquidity support. Nonetheless, while such support buys time, it does not guarantee success. This paper argues that reflecting on Latin America's experience provides useful lessons for Europe to improve the chances for a successful resolution.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2006
Multilateral intermediation of foreign aid : what is the trade-off for donor countries? / by Andr... more Multilateral intermediation of foreign aid : what is the trade-off for donor countries? / by Andrew Powell, Matteo Bobba. p. cm. (Research Department Working paper series ; 594) Includes bibliographical references. 1. Economic assistance-Developing countries. 2. International cooperation. I. Bobba,
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007
The views and interpretations in this document are those of the authors and should not be attribu... more The views and interpretations in this document are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Inter-American Development Bank, or to any individual acting on its behalf. This paper may be freely reproduced provided credit is given to the Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank. The Research Department (RES) produces a quarterly newsletter, IDEA (Ideas for Development in the Americas), as well as working papers and books on diverse economic issues.
Brookings Trade Forum, 2002
This paper contends that the recent financial crisis in Argentina was avoidable. Until the end of... more This paper contends that the recent financial crisis in Argentina was avoidable. Until the end of 2000, and arguably even until the second quarter of 2001, a fiscal adjustment would have substantially improved Argentina's situation, but the country achieved virtually none. The root of the crisis was the interaction between bad luck; moderate but certainly required fiscal adjustment; slow deflationary and recessionary current-account adjustment process; and, very importantly, extremely messy politics. These interactions can also be thought of as vicious, self-enforcing cycles, suggesting potential multiple equilibria, both within the economic variables and between the economy and politics. A vector autoregression (VAR) analysis indicates significant interrelations between key economic and variables and politics. For its part, the IMF was caught between a growing concern regarding moral hazard and the possibility of a run. This more structural explanation to Argentine-IMF relations suggests that the international financial architecture is still incomplete, and further creative thought is required to contain the incentives for countries in such unfortunate positions to pursue more risky policies as default becomes more likely.
Journal of Development Economics, 1998
This paper explains public saving and investment in economies where many groups compete for scarc... more This paper explains public saving and investment in economies where many groups compete for scarce public funds. We show that there is a collective action problem. If there is no strong center, then this problem manifests itself in a very low savings and investment rates. In the extreme, current spending may be determined simply by the current tax income and access to borrowing. This explains why in the face of a temporary boom, governments may not save but may even borrow more to finance even higher levels of expenditure. We Ž deal also with several mitigating factors repetition, insiders-outsiders interaction, elections ns .
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007
On the determinants of international currency choice : will the euro dominate the world? / by Mat... more On the determinants of international currency choice : will the euro dominate the world? / by Matteo Bobba, Giuseppe Della Corte, Andrew Powell. p. cm. (Research Department Working paper series ; 611) Includes bibliographical references. 1. Monetary policy. 2. International finance.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012
The Inter-American Development Bank Technical Notes encompass a wide range of best practices, pro... more The Inter-American Development Bank Technical Notes encompass a wide range of best practices, project evaluations, lessons learned, case studies, methodological notes, and other documents of a technical nature. The information and opinions presented in these publications are entirely those of the author(s), and no endorsement by the Inter-American Development Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the countries they represent is expressed or implied.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2009
This paper may be freely reproduced provided credit is given to the Research Department, Inter-Am... more This paper may be freely reproduced provided credit is given to the Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank. The Research Department (RES) produces a quarterly newsletter, IDEA (Ideas for Development in the Americas), as well as working papers and books on diverse economic issues.
The World Bank Economic Review, 2002
respectively. The authors would like to thank George McAndless and Guillermo Escudé for comments,... more respectively. The authors would like to thank George McAndless and Guillermo Escudé for comments, Christian Castro and Matías Gutierrez Girault for assistance, and two anonymous referees for invaluable comments. All remaining errors remain their own. The opinions expressed in this article are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Central Bank of Argentina or any other institution with which they are affiliated.
The Economic Journal, 2010
This paper uses simple regression techniques to make an initial assessment of the monetary damage... more This paper uses simple regression techniques to make an initial assessment of the monetary damages caused by the January 12, 2010 earthquake that struck Haiti. Damages are estimated for a disaster with both 200,000 and 250,000 total dead and missing (i.e., the range of mortality that the earthquake is estimated to have caused) using Haiti's economic and demographic data. The base estimate is US$8.1bn for a death toll of 250,000, but for several reasons this may be a lowerbound estimate. An estimate of US$13.9bn for the same death toll is within statistical error. While the results are subject to many caveats, the implications of such an estimate are significant. Raising such a figure will require many donorsbilateral, multilateral and private. Hence excellent coordination of funding and execution will be the key to ensuring the efficient use of funds.
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003
Fi in na an nz za as s
International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2012
If rating agencies add no new information to markets, their actions are not a public policy conce... more If rating agencies add no new information to markets, their actions are not a public policy concern. But as rating changes may be anticipated, testing whether ratings add value is not straightforward. This paper argues that ratings and spreads are both noisy signals of fundamentals and suggest ratings add value if, controlling for spreads, they help explain other variables. The paper additionally analyzes the different actions (ratings and outlooks) of the three leading agencies for sovereign debt, also considering the differing effects of more or less anticipated events. The results are consistent across a wide range of tests. Ratings do matter and hence how the market for ratings functions may be a public policy concern.
Banco Central de la República …, 1997
The literature on bank runs is divided into those who suggest that depositors can discriminate we... more The literature on bank runs is divided into those who suggest that depositors can discriminate well between good and bad banks and those who stress that, due to asymmetric information problems, depositors may run a perfectly good bank when a bad bank in the same system ...
SSRN Electronic Journal, 1996
The views and interpretations in this document are those of the authors and should not be attribu... more The views and interpretations in this document are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Inter-American Development Bank, or to any individual acting on its behalf. This paper may be freely reproduced provided credit is given to the Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank. The Research Department (RES) produces a quarterly newsletter, IDEA (Ideas for Development in the Americas), as well as working papers and books on diverse economic issues.
Theory suggests both resilience and fragility in banking networks. This paper finds both, exploit... more Theory suggests both resilience and fragility in banking networks. This paper finds both, exploiting a new database of cross-border syndicated lending to developing countries from 1993 to 2017. Shocks propagate via co-lenders driven by central players, but shocks impacting fringe banks have little impact. The global financial crisis and the appearance of South-South lenders prompted a decline in network centrality, suggesting greater resilience to normal shocks. Multilateral Development Banks may play a catalytic role, but their small size limits their ability to mitigate shock propagation. The ongoing Covid-19 crisis is not a normal shock, is hitting central players and will likely provoke significant contagion.
Journal of Banking & Finance, 2014
Several European countries face challenges reminiscent of those faced by the emerging economies o... more Several European countries face challenges reminiscent of those faced by the emerging economies of Latin America. The economic booms in some peripheral Euro-zone countries financed by large capital inflows; the credit and asset price booms and then the busts including Sudden Stops in capital flows; the strong interaction between sovereign debt and domestic banking systems; the role of foreign banks and contagion; and all in the context of a fixed exchange rate, are familiar plotlines for Latin American audiences. For those Euro-zone countries that built up large Euro-denominated external liabilities, Latin America's experience is particularly relevant and worrisome. Still, Europe may be in a better position to navigate a path out of the crisis given cooperative mechanisms that were absent in Latin America, particularly the availability of massive liquidity support. Nonetheless, while such support buys time, it does not guarantee success. This paper argues that reflecting on Latin America's experience provides useful lessons for Europe to improve the chances for a successful resolution.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2006
Multilateral intermediation of foreign aid : what is the trade-off for donor countries? / by Andr... more Multilateral intermediation of foreign aid : what is the trade-off for donor countries? / by Andrew Powell, Matteo Bobba. p. cm. (Research Department Working paper series ; 594) Includes bibliographical references. 1. Economic assistance-Developing countries. 2. International cooperation. I. Bobba,
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007
The views and interpretations in this document are those of the authors and should not be attribu... more The views and interpretations in this document are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Inter-American Development Bank, or to any individual acting on its behalf. This paper may be freely reproduced provided credit is given to the Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank. The Research Department (RES) produces a quarterly newsletter, IDEA (Ideas for Development in the Americas), as well as working papers and books on diverse economic issues.
Brookings Trade Forum, 2002
This paper contends that the recent financial crisis in Argentina was avoidable. Until the end of... more This paper contends that the recent financial crisis in Argentina was avoidable. Until the end of 2000, and arguably even until the second quarter of 2001, a fiscal adjustment would have substantially improved Argentina's situation, but the country achieved virtually none. The root of the crisis was the interaction between bad luck; moderate but certainly required fiscal adjustment; slow deflationary and recessionary current-account adjustment process; and, very importantly, extremely messy politics. These interactions can also be thought of as vicious, self-enforcing cycles, suggesting potential multiple equilibria, both within the economic variables and between the economy and politics. A vector autoregression (VAR) analysis indicates significant interrelations between key economic and variables and politics. For its part, the IMF was caught between a growing concern regarding moral hazard and the possibility of a run. This more structural explanation to Argentine-IMF relations suggests that the international financial architecture is still incomplete, and further creative thought is required to contain the incentives for countries in such unfortunate positions to pursue more risky policies as default becomes more likely.
Journal of Development Economics, 1998
This paper explains public saving and investment in economies where many groups compete for scarc... more This paper explains public saving and investment in economies where many groups compete for scarce public funds. We show that there is a collective action problem. If there is no strong center, then this problem manifests itself in a very low savings and investment rates. In the extreme, current spending may be determined simply by the current tax income and access to borrowing. This explains why in the face of a temporary boom, governments may not save but may even borrow more to finance even higher levels of expenditure. We Ž deal also with several mitigating factors repetition, insiders-outsiders interaction, elections ns .