Andrzej Mazur - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Andrzej Mazur

Zanieczyszczenia atmosferyczne jako istotny czynnik degradacji środowiska stały się problemem mię... more Zanieczyszczenia atmosferyczne jako istotny czynnik degradacji środowiska stały się problemem międzynarodowym, dotyczącym nie tylko krajów, na obszarze których zlokalizowane są źródła emisji, ale również krajów sąsiednich (jako efekt transportu trans-granicznego), a czasem również – w rezultacie globalnej dyspersji – kraje i regiony, położone w znacznej odległości od źródeł (Alcamo i Bartnicki, 1986; Zwoździak, 1995; EMEP, 2006, 2013). Z uwagi na fakt, że czasami niektóre kraje stają się „importerami netto” zanieczyszczeń (tzn. napływa do nich, w wyniku transportu trans-granicznego, więcej zanieczyszczeń, niż same emitują) istotną wielkością jest bilans zanieczyszczeń, czyli wielkość określająca relację pomiędzy ilościami zanieczyszczeń napływających do danego kraju („import”) i emitowanych zeń („eksport”). Wielkość ta pozwala określić stan środowiska naturalnego w odniesieniu do bieżących wartości emisji poszczególnych zanieczyszczeń oraz określić (postulować) niezbędne proekologic...

Acta Geophysica, 2020

A new computing cluster has been operating since 2016 at the Institute of Meteorology and Water M... more A new computing cluster has been operating since 2016 at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute. Increasing computing power enabled the implementation of ensemble prediction system forecasts in the operational mode and the use of a new computer for research purposes. As part of the priority project on “Study of Disturbances in the Representation of Modeling Uncertainty in Ensemble Development” and the earlier project entitled “COSMO Towards Ensemble in Km in Our Countries), implemented in the Working Group 7 (Predictability and Ensemble Methods) as part of the COSMO modeling consortium, specific studies were carried out to test ensemble forecasts. This research concerned the impact of variability of physical fields characterizing the soil surface (a selected parameter determining evaporation from the soil surface and soil surface temperature) using various methods of perturbation. Numerical experiments were completed for the warm period (from...

Ecological Chemistry and Engineering S, 2019

Poland is under threat of potential accidents in nuclear power plants located in its close vicini... more Poland is under threat of potential accidents in nuclear power plants located in its close vicinity, in almost all neighboring countries. Moreover, there are plans to establish a new nuclear power plant in Polish coast. In this paper the analysis of atmospheric transport of radioactive material released during a potential accident in the future nuclear power plant is presented. In the first part of study transport of radioactivity as seen from the long time perspective is analyzed. This involves trajectory analysis as a tool for describing the statistics of air pollution transport pattern and screening the meteorological situations for episode studies. Large sets of meteorological data for selected episodes were stored as a result of this process. Estimation of risk includes both analysis of the consequences and probability analysis of an occurrence of such situation. Episodes then were comprehensively studied in the second phase of the study, using the Eulerian dispersion model for...

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management, 2015

The current state of knowledge and the latest trends and examples of decision support systems (dS... more The current state of knowledge and the latest trends and examples of decision support systems (dSSs) are presented in this paper. Special emphasis was placed on a DSS proposal based on post-processed numerical weather forecasts operating in a real time. there is an essential need for decision support systems that can react to any incidents-including those that pose a risk to the natural environment or human activity in general. For this purpose an exemplary system has been prepared, which was-from its conception to implementation-the original idea of the author. the system enables communication with the user via a graphical user interface that controls the operation of the program, the course of the algorithm and the data flow. The system is modular, allowing the connection of other applications to carry out the work of a DSS. A basic view of the operating window and working panels have been designed for proper demonstration of various types of information and visualizations-the substantial products and results of the system. Further research in the field of dSS of this kind should be the implementation within the rIOT system of mechanisms of notification and response to crisis events related to extreme weather phenomena (whirlwinds, intensive rains, strong frosts or heats).

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management, 2015

The current state of the art and dedicated applications in Early Warning Systems (EWS) of hydrolo... more The current state of the art and dedicated applications in Early Warning Systems (EWS) of hydrological and meteorological threats are presented herein. Special emphasis is placed on systems based on the post-processing of deterministic numerical weather forecasts in the real-time mode. The importance of climate and weather forecasting models in providing warnings against slow and rapid onset rates e.g. drought and dispersion of atmospheric pollutants respectively, is discussed. It is strongly suggested that there is a need for systems, corresponding to crisis situations in the field of environmental hazards and/or human activities in general, that would be able to provide support and information about further possible scenarios with a projected state of both the environment and the possibility of the negative impact of various factors on the population (human communities). Since there are highly developed plans for the construction of a nuclear power plant in Poland, there is an urgent need to prepare adequate tools that will help avoid crisis situations, or at least to minimize their negative effects. The Early Warning System should be considered one such tool, to be used not only for its economic benefits, but also for pro-social areas of services responsible for the appropriate reaction to crisis events.

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management, 2017

The usage of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)-based weather forecasts is nowadays becoming very p... more The usage of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)-based weather forecasts is nowadays becoming very popular and widespread, because ensemble means better represent weather-related risks than a single (deterministic) forecast. Perturbations of the lower boundary state (i.e., layers of soil and the boundary between soil and the lower atmosphere) applied to the governing system are also believed to play an important role at any resolution. As a part of the research project of the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute (IMWM-NRI), a simple and efficient method was proposed to produce a reasonable number of valid ensemble members, taking into consideration predefined soil-related model parameters. Tests, case studies and long-term evaluations confirmed that small perturbations of a selected parameter(s) were sufficient to induce significant changes in the forecast of the state of the atmosphere and to provide qualitative selection of a valid member of the ensemble members. Another important factor that added a significant increment to ensemble spread was the time-lagged approach. All these aspects resulted in the preparation of a well-defined ensemble based on the perturbation of soil-related parameters, and introduced in the COSMO model operational setup at the IMWM-NRI. This system is intended for the use in forecasters' routine work.

Miscellanea Geographica, 2016

Physical processes in soil-plant-water system are very complicated. Complex physical processes in... more Physical processes in soil-plant-water system are very complicated. Complex physical processes in soil, in particular interaction between soil-plant-water system have significant influence on processes in Planetary Boundary Layer. Changes of soil state can significantly modify processes in the PBL and meteorological fields. Since numerical models are to determine the forecast of high quality, the physical processes occurring in soil should be properly described and then appropriately introduced into a model. Every process in soil occurs on a smaller scale than original model’s domain, so it should be described via adequate parameterization. Overall, soil parameterizations implemented in current numerical weather prediction (NWP) model(s) were prepared almost 40 years ago, when NWP models worked with very poor resolution mesh. Since nowadays NWP works over domains of high resolution, these “old” schemes parameterization must be adequately revised. In this paper preliminary results of...

Ecological Chemistry and Engineering S, 2016

Soil and atmosphere boundary layer (ABL) interact with each other and influence physical processe... more Soil and atmosphere boundary layer (ABL) interact with each other and influence physical processes in soil and atmosphere. Quality of numerical weather forecast depends on good mapping of complex soil process (microphysics processes in soil, fluid dynamics in porous media, soil dynamics, water cycle in soil and soil-plant-water relation, thermal processes in the soil etc.) in parameterization soil schemes. Current parameterizations of soil physical processes in TERRA_ML (multilayer soil module of the COSMO meteorological model) were prepared 30 years ago for numerical model with poor resolution. Nowadays operationally numerical models work with much better resolution. So, previous parameterization must have been improved or prepared from the beginning if it is expected improvement quality of numerical weather forecast. The influence of changing parameterization of water flux through the soil for “bare soil” case on vertical meteorological profiles is presented in this paper. This in...

Ecological Chemistry and Engineering S, 2015

Soil and atmosphere boundary layer (ABL) interact with each other and influence on physical proce... more Soil and atmosphere boundary layer (ABL) interact with each other and influence on physical processes in soil and atmosphere. Current parameterization of soil physical processes in TERRA_ML (multilayer soil module of COSMO meteorological model) was prepared more than 40 years ago and did not give satisfactory forecast results. New parameterizations should involve physical processes in the soil (microphysics processes in soil, fluid dynamics in porous media, soil dynamics, etc.), water cycle in soil and soil-plant-water relation. The aim of this project was to improve current soil parameterization in the COSMO model, called “TERRA_ML”. The results of the work, related to the parameterization of physical processes of bare soil evaporation, vertical and horizontal water transport in soil and a runoff from soil layers, are presented in this paper. In order to eliminate underestimation of evaporation from soil in the afternoon and overestimation evaporation from soil in the morning a cor...

Ecological Chemistry and Engineering S, 2014

An assessment of the current state of natural environment affected by air pollution, as well as, ... more An assessment of the current state of natural environment affected by air pollution, as well as, forecasts of pro-ecologic, economic and social activities are very often performed using models for atmospheric transport and deposition of air pollutants. In the present paper, we present an operational dispersion model developed at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw. The basic assumptions and principles of the model are described together with the operational domain and examples of model applications. Two examples of model application are described and discussed here. The first, application is a simulation of the atmospheric transport and deposition of the radioactive isotopes released into the atmosphere during the Chernobyl Accident in 1998. The second example is related to simulation of atmospheric transport of the tracer released into the air during the ETEX experiment. These two examples and previous applications of the model showed that presented dispersi...

Streszczenie W referacie przeprowadzono analizę aktualnego stanu wiedzy i tendencji rozwojowych m... more Streszczenie W referacie przeprowadzono analizę aktualnego stanu wiedzy i tendencji rozwojowych meteorologicznych systemów wczesnego ostrzegania. Szczególny nacisk położono na systemy oparte na przetwarzaniu prognoz z meteorologicznych modeli numerycznych w czasie rzeczywistym. Omówiono również rolę modeli numerycznych pogody i klimatu, odpowiednio dla zagrożeń o krótkim czasie narastania w systemach ostrzegania przed skażeniem atmosfery (np. atmosferyczny transport zanieczyszczeń) i w systemach ostrzegania przed zjawiskami wolno narastającymi (np. susza). Zasygnalizowano także rozwój dziedziny prognozowania pogody kosmicznej i związanych z nią zagrożeń. Co to jest system wczesnego ostrzegania? System Wczesnego Ostrzegania (Early Warning System, EWS) jest to układ dostarczający informacje związane (opisujące) z możliwością wystąpienia zagrożenia w celu zmniejszenia lub całkowitej redukcji czynników ryzyka związanych z tymi zagrożeniami. Natomiast samo "Wczesne Ostrzeganie"...

With the increased resolution of the computational mesh (horizontal grid size down to 2,8 km) use... more With the increased resolution of the computational mesh (horizontal grid size down to 2,8 km) used in the current version of COSMO model, the existing soil parameterization schemes have to be significantly improved. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMWM-NRI) have collaborated with the Institute of Agrophysics Polish Academy of Science (IA-PAS) since August 2012 and started a new project entitled “New approach to parameterization of physical processes in soil in numerical model”. Basing on recent theoretical and experimental analysis of the overhaul physical phenomena in soil the new set of parameterizations is being developed, taking into consideration various physical and microphysical processes in soil (including fluid dynamics in porous media, soil dynamics, water cycle in soil and soil–plant–water interaction). At the moment we are working on parameterization of bare soil evaporation, on vertical and horizontal soil water transport and...

Przeglad Geofizyczny

In COSMO model (Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling) physical processes occuring between lower a... more In COSMO model (Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling) physical processes occuring between lower atmosphere and upper soil layers were parameterized via soil model TERRA and TERRA_ML (Doms et al., 2011). Since 2009 at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) two new parameterizations, MOSAIC and TILE, (Ament 2006, 2008 and Ament and Simmer 2010, Duniec and Mazur 2011) have been tested. These parameterizations have taken into account non-homogeneities of the soil in a single grid. In 2009 and 2010 MOSAIC parameterization has been intensively tested (Duniec, Mazur, 2011) and tests were continued in 2011 with TILE parameterization. Tests were carried out using selected data from days with specific conditions. Different versions of the model code with both TILE and MOSAIC parameterizations implemented were used for tests, using various numerical and convection schemes.

Results of preliminary and detailed sensitivity tests of model output sensitivity to changes in s... more Results of preliminary and detailed sensitivity tests of model output sensitivity to changes in soil-related parameters are presented in the paper. Conclusions and propositions regarding construction of "soil-parameters-based" ensemble(s) as a part of more general, lower-boundary-conditions-based EPS are an outcome of this case study.

With the high mesh resolution (horizontal grid size down to 2,8 km) used in the current version o... more With the high mesh resolution (horizontal grid size down to 2,8 km) used in the current version of COSMO model, the existing soil parameterization schemes have to be significantly improved. Hence in August 2012, IMWM-NRI in collaboration with the Institute of Agrophysics Polish Academy of Science (IA-PAS) started a new project, entitled " New approach to parameterization of physical processes in soil in the numerical model ". Basing on recent theoretical and experimental analysis of the overhaul physical phenomena in soil the new set of parameterizations is being developed, taking into consideration various physical and microphysical processes in soil (including fluid dynamics in porous media, soil dynamics, water cycle in soil and soil–plant–water interaction). At the moment we are working on parameterization of the bare soil evaporation, vertical and horizontal soil water transport and runoff from soil layers. The results from two numerical experiments over the area of P...

Wind energy is one of the fastest growing sectors of renewable energy resources in Poland. Every ... more Wind energy is one of the fastest growing sectors of renewable energy resources in Poland. Every year new wind farms are installed, and on March 2011 the installed capacity of wind power in Poland was 1360 MW (from overall 453 wind power stations, according to Energy Regulatory Office). Wind power is highly dependent on meteorological parameters. In our work we present results from wind speed post-processing and verification of results of numerical forecasting model. The mesoscale COSMO model runs operationally in Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw in the domain of 2700 x 2200 km, on regular grids with a resolution of 14 km, 7 km, and 2.8 km. Forecast range is 78 hours (14 and 7 km) and 30 hours (2.8 km). The model is calculated twice per day (for all resolutions). Example results of model for every resolution in a form of vertical wind profiles and of horizontal wind fields are shown. The fields obtained from model had been verified against Polish SYNOP and TEM...

Soil and atmosphere boundary layer (ABL) interact with each other and influence on physical proce... more Soil and atmosphere boundary layer (ABL) interact with each other and influence on physical processes happen in soil and atmosphere. Current parameterization of soil physics processes in TERRA_ML (multilayer soil module of COSMO model) was prepared 40 years ago and does not give satisfactorily forecast results. Problem of adequate parameterization is somehow neglected by scientists working in this field. To improve mathematical description of physical processes in soil authors prepared the project " New approach to parameterization of Physical Processes in soil in numerical model " started in August 2012 at IMWM-NRI. New parameterizations wereas prepared taking into consideration physical processes in soil (microphysics processes in soil, fluid dynamics in porous media, soil dynamics etc.), water cycle in soil and soil–plant–water relation. The aim of the project was an improvement of present parameterizations of the TERRA_ML in COSMO model. First part of work was connecte...

In the beginning of numerical weather forecasts Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) was designated t... more In the beginning of numerical weather forecasts Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) was designated to accompany deterministic predictions and to present a wide spectrum of possible scenarios. As model(s) resolution increase many of weather phenomena are becoming increasingly stochastic in nature. Thus, the significance of ensemble forecasts is now greater than ever. Perturbations of the lower boundary state (namely conditions of soil and the boundary between soil and lower atmosphere) applied to EPS are also assumed to play an important role at any resolution. So far, however, uncertainties of surface condition are rarely considered in EPSs, although its importance has been shown in various surveys. In order to implement techniques for the perturbation of the soil state, the sensitivity of a model to different soil moisture and temperature initializations should be verified. At Institute of Meteorology and Water Management an analysis of the influence of various COSMO (Consortium for S...

Current problems of Warsaw climate Summary Elaboration is dedicated to climatic conditions in War... more Current problems of Warsaw climate Summary Elaboration is dedicated to climatic conditions in Warsaw. Results are of both cognitive and utility character. One can find here qualitative and quantitative characteristics of Warsaw urban heat island, ventilation systems of the city, perceptible climate conditions and meteorological situations threatening health and life of city inhabitants. Complex precipitation regime in the city is presented as the indicator for plans of modernization of deceptive and worn out storm sewage system in Warsaw. Results of experimental research are used in this elaboration, carried out at the city area by Climatology Dept of the Warsaw University as well as earlier and present author's research results. Obtained effects of the study indicate that urban area of Great Warsaw constitutes of complex topoclimatic conditions from cognitive and practical points of view. Conclusions are formulated in substantial — cognitive and practicable way. The last one sh...

In COSMO model (Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling) physical processes occurring be-tween lower... more In COSMO model (Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling) physical processes occurring be-tween lower atmosphere and upper soil layers were parameterized via soil model TERRA and TERRA/LM (Doms et al., 2007). Since 2009 at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) two new parameterizations, MOSAIC and TILE, (Ament 2006, 2008 and Ament and Simmer, 2010, Duniec and Mazur 2011) have been tested. These parameterizations have taken into account non-homogeneities of the soil in a single grid. In 2009 and 2010 MOSAIC parameterization has been intensively tested (Duniec, Mazur, 2011), and tests were continued in 2011 with TILE parameterization. Tests were carried out using selected data from days with specific synoptic conditions. Different versions of the model code with both TILE and MOSAIC parameterizations implemented were used for tests, using various numerical and convection schemes.

Zanieczyszczenia atmosferyczne jako istotny czynnik degradacji środowiska stały się problemem mię... more Zanieczyszczenia atmosferyczne jako istotny czynnik degradacji środowiska stały się problemem międzynarodowym, dotyczącym nie tylko krajów, na obszarze których zlokalizowane są źródła emisji, ale również krajów sąsiednich (jako efekt transportu trans-granicznego), a czasem również – w rezultacie globalnej dyspersji – kraje i regiony, położone w znacznej odległości od źródeł (Alcamo i Bartnicki, 1986; Zwoździak, 1995; EMEP, 2006, 2013). Z uwagi na fakt, że czasami niektóre kraje stają się „importerami netto” zanieczyszczeń (tzn. napływa do nich, w wyniku transportu trans-granicznego, więcej zanieczyszczeń, niż same emitują) istotną wielkością jest bilans zanieczyszczeń, czyli wielkość określająca relację pomiędzy ilościami zanieczyszczeń napływających do danego kraju („import”) i emitowanych zeń („eksport”). Wielkość ta pozwala określić stan środowiska naturalnego w odniesieniu do bieżących wartości emisji poszczególnych zanieczyszczeń oraz określić (postulować) niezbędne proekologic...

Acta Geophysica, 2020

A new computing cluster has been operating since 2016 at the Institute of Meteorology and Water M... more A new computing cluster has been operating since 2016 at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute. Increasing computing power enabled the implementation of ensemble prediction system forecasts in the operational mode and the use of a new computer for research purposes. As part of the priority project on “Study of Disturbances in the Representation of Modeling Uncertainty in Ensemble Development” and the earlier project entitled “COSMO Towards Ensemble in Km in Our Countries), implemented in the Working Group 7 (Predictability and Ensemble Methods) as part of the COSMO modeling consortium, specific studies were carried out to test ensemble forecasts. This research concerned the impact of variability of physical fields characterizing the soil surface (a selected parameter determining evaporation from the soil surface and soil surface temperature) using various methods of perturbation. Numerical experiments were completed for the warm period (from...

Ecological Chemistry and Engineering S, 2019

Poland is under threat of potential accidents in nuclear power plants located in its close vicini... more Poland is under threat of potential accidents in nuclear power plants located in its close vicinity, in almost all neighboring countries. Moreover, there are plans to establish a new nuclear power plant in Polish coast. In this paper the analysis of atmospheric transport of radioactive material released during a potential accident in the future nuclear power plant is presented. In the first part of study transport of radioactivity as seen from the long time perspective is analyzed. This involves trajectory analysis as a tool for describing the statistics of air pollution transport pattern and screening the meteorological situations for episode studies. Large sets of meteorological data for selected episodes were stored as a result of this process. Estimation of risk includes both analysis of the consequences and probability analysis of an occurrence of such situation. Episodes then were comprehensively studied in the second phase of the study, using the Eulerian dispersion model for...

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management, 2015

The current state of knowledge and the latest trends and examples of decision support systems (dS... more The current state of knowledge and the latest trends and examples of decision support systems (dSSs) are presented in this paper. Special emphasis was placed on a DSS proposal based on post-processed numerical weather forecasts operating in a real time. there is an essential need for decision support systems that can react to any incidents-including those that pose a risk to the natural environment or human activity in general. For this purpose an exemplary system has been prepared, which was-from its conception to implementation-the original idea of the author. the system enables communication with the user via a graphical user interface that controls the operation of the program, the course of the algorithm and the data flow. The system is modular, allowing the connection of other applications to carry out the work of a DSS. A basic view of the operating window and working panels have been designed for proper demonstration of various types of information and visualizations-the substantial products and results of the system. Further research in the field of dSS of this kind should be the implementation within the rIOT system of mechanisms of notification and response to crisis events related to extreme weather phenomena (whirlwinds, intensive rains, strong frosts or heats).

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management, 2015

The current state of the art and dedicated applications in Early Warning Systems (EWS) of hydrolo... more The current state of the art and dedicated applications in Early Warning Systems (EWS) of hydrological and meteorological threats are presented herein. Special emphasis is placed on systems based on the post-processing of deterministic numerical weather forecasts in the real-time mode. The importance of climate and weather forecasting models in providing warnings against slow and rapid onset rates e.g. drought and dispersion of atmospheric pollutants respectively, is discussed. It is strongly suggested that there is a need for systems, corresponding to crisis situations in the field of environmental hazards and/or human activities in general, that would be able to provide support and information about further possible scenarios with a projected state of both the environment and the possibility of the negative impact of various factors on the population (human communities). Since there are highly developed plans for the construction of a nuclear power plant in Poland, there is an urgent need to prepare adequate tools that will help avoid crisis situations, or at least to minimize their negative effects. The Early Warning System should be considered one such tool, to be used not only for its economic benefits, but also for pro-social areas of services responsible for the appropriate reaction to crisis events.

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management, 2017

The usage of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)-based weather forecasts is nowadays becoming very p... more The usage of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)-based weather forecasts is nowadays becoming very popular and widespread, because ensemble means better represent weather-related risks than a single (deterministic) forecast. Perturbations of the lower boundary state (i.e., layers of soil and the boundary between soil and the lower atmosphere) applied to the governing system are also believed to play an important role at any resolution. As a part of the research project of the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute (IMWM-NRI), a simple and efficient method was proposed to produce a reasonable number of valid ensemble members, taking into consideration predefined soil-related model parameters. Tests, case studies and long-term evaluations confirmed that small perturbations of a selected parameter(s) were sufficient to induce significant changes in the forecast of the state of the atmosphere and to provide qualitative selection of a valid member of the ensemble members. Another important factor that added a significant increment to ensemble spread was the time-lagged approach. All these aspects resulted in the preparation of a well-defined ensemble based on the perturbation of soil-related parameters, and introduced in the COSMO model operational setup at the IMWM-NRI. This system is intended for the use in forecasters' routine work.

Miscellanea Geographica, 2016

Physical processes in soil-plant-water system are very complicated. Complex physical processes in... more Physical processes in soil-plant-water system are very complicated. Complex physical processes in soil, in particular interaction between soil-plant-water system have significant influence on processes in Planetary Boundary Layer. Changes of soil state can significantly modify processes in the PBL and meteorological fields. Since numerical models are to determine the forecast of high quality, the physical processes occurring in soil should be properly described and then appropriately introduced into a model. Every process in soil occurs on a smaller scale than original model’s domain, so it should be described via adequate parameterization. Overall, soil parameterizations implemented in current numerical weather prediction (NWP) model(s) were prepared almost 40 years ago, when NWP models worked with very poor resolution mesh. Since nowadays NWP works over domains of high resolution, these “old” schemes parameterization must be adequately revised. In this paper preliminary results of...

Ecological Chemistry and Engineering S, 2016

Soil and atmosphere boundary layer (ABL) interact with each other and influence physical processe... more Soil and atmosphere boundary layer (ABL) interact with each other and influence physical processes in soil and atmosphere. Quality of numerical weather forecast depends on good mapping of complex soil process (microphysics processes in soil, fluid dynamics in porous media, soil dynamics, water cycle in soil and soil-plant-water relation, thermal processes in the soil etc.) in parameterization soil schemes. Current parameterizations of soil physical processes in TERRA_ML (multilayer soil module of the COSMO meteorological model) were prepared 30 years ago for numerical model with poor resolution. Nowadays operationally numerical models work with much better resolution. So, previous parameterization must have been improved or prepared from the beginning if it is expected improvement quality of numerical weather forecast. The influence of changing parameterization of water flux through the soil for “bare soil” case on vertical meteorological profiles is presented in this paper. This in...

Ecological Chemistry and Engineering S, 2015

Soil and atmosphere boundary layer (ABL) interact with each other and influence on physical proce... more Soil and atmosphere boundary layer (ABL) interact with each other and influence on physical processes in soil and atmosphere. Current parameterization of soil physical processes in TERRA_ML (multilayer soil module of COSMO meteorological model) was prepared more than 40 years ago and did not give satisfactory forecast results. New parameterizations should involve physical processes in the soil (microphysics processes in soil, fluid dynamics in porous media, soil dynamics, etc.), water cycle in soil and soil-plant-water relation. The aim of this project was to improve current soil parameterization in the COSMO model, called “TERRA_ML”. The results of the work, related to the parameterization of physical processes of bare soil evaporation, vertical and horizontal water transport in soil and a runoff from soil layers, are presented in this paper. In order to eliminate underestimation of evaporation from soil in the afternoon and overestimation evaporation from soil in the morning a cor...

Ecological Chemistry and Engineering S, 2014

An assessment of the current state of natural environment affected by air pollution, as well as, ... more An assessment of the current state of natural environment affected by air pollution, as well as, forecasts of pro-ecologic, economic and social activities are very often performed using models for atmospheric transport and deposition of air pollutants. In the present paper, we present an operational dispersion model developed at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw. The basic assumptions and principles of the model are described together with the operational domain and examples of model applications. Two examples of model application are described and discussed here. The first, application is a simulation of the atmospheric transport and deposition of the radioactive isotopes released into the atmosphere during the Chernobyl Accident in 1998. The second example is related to simulation of atmospheric transport of the tracer released into the air during the ETEX experiment. These two examples and previous applications of the model showed that presented dispersi...

Streszczenie W referacie przeprowadzono analizę aktualnego stanu wiedzy i tendencji rozwojowych m... more Streszczenie W referacie przeprowadzono analizę aktualnego stanu wiedzy i tendencji rozwojowych meteorologicznych systemów wczesnego ostrzegania. Szczególny nacisk położono na systemy oparte na przetwarzaniu prognoz z meteorologicznych modeli numerycznych w czasie rzeczywistym. Omówiono również rolę modeli numerycznych pogody i klimatu, odpowiednio dla zagrożeń o krótkim czasie narastania w systemach ostrzegania przed skażeniem atmosfery (np. atmosferyczny transport zanieczyszczeń) i w systemach ostrzegania przed zjawiskami wolno narastającymi (np. susza). Zasygnalizowano także rozwój dziedziny prognozowania pogody kosmicznej i związanych z nią zagrożeń. Co to jest system wczesnego ostrzegania? System Wczesnego Ostrzegania (Early Warning System, EWS) jest to układ dostarczający informacje związane (opisujące) z możliwością wystąpienia zagrożenia w celu zmniejszenia lub całkowitej redukcji czynników ryzyka związanych z tymi zagrożeniami. Natomiast samo "Wczesne Ostrzeganie"...

With the increased resolution of the computational mesh (horizontal grid size down to 2,8 km) use... more With the increased resolution of the computational mesh (horizontal grid size down to 2,8 km) used in the current version of COSMO model, the existing soil parameterization schemes have to be significantly improved. Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMWM-NRI) have collaborated with the Institute of Agrophysics Polish Academy of Science (IA-PAS) since August 2012 and started a new project entitled “New approach to parameterization of physical processes in soil in numerical model”. Basing on recent theoretical and experimental analysis of the overhaul physical phenomena in soil the new set of parameterizations is being developed, taking into consideration various physical and microphysical processes in soil (including fluid dynamics in porous media, soil dynamics, water cycle in soil and soil–plant–water interaction). At the moment we are working on parameterization of bare soil evaporation, on vertical and horizontal soil water transport and...

Przeglad Geofizyczny

In COSMO model (Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling) physical processes occuring between lower a... more In COSMO model (Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling) physical processes occuring between lower atmosphere and upper soil layers were parameterized via soil model TERRA and TERRA_ML (Doms et al., 2011). Since 2009 at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) two new parameterizations, MOSAIC and TILE, (Ament 2006, 2008 and Ament and Simmer 2010, Duniec and Mazur 2011) have been tested. These parameterizations have taken into account non-homogeneities of the soil in a single grid. In 2009 and 2010 MOSAIC parameterization has been intensively tested (Duniec, Mazur, 2011) and tests were continued in 2011 with TILE parameterization. Tests were carried out using selected data from days with specific conditions. Different versions of the model code with both TILE and MOSAIC parameterizations implemented were used for tests, using various numerical and convection schemes.

Results of preliminary and detailed sensitivity tests of model output sensitivity to changes in s... more Results of preliminary and detailed sensitivity tests of model output sensitivity to changes in soil-related parameters are presented in the paper. Conclusions and propositions regarding construction of "soil-parameters-based" ensemble(s) as a part of more general, lower-boundary-conditions-based EPS are an outcome of this case study.

With the high mesh resolution (horizontal grid size down to 2,8 km) used in the current version o... more With the high mesh resolution (horizontal grid size down to 2,8 km) used in the current version of COSMO model, the existing soil parameterization schemes have to be significantly improved. Hence in August 2012, IMWM-NRI in collaboration with the Institute of Agrophysics Polish Academy of Science (IA-PAS) started a new project, entitled " New approach to parameterization of physical processes in soil in the numerical model ". Basing on recent theoretical and experimental analysis of the overhaul physical phenomena in soil the new set of parameterizations is being developed, taking into consideration various physical and microphysical processes in soil (including fluid dynamics in porous media, soil dynamics, water cycle in soil and soil–plant–water interaction). At the moment we are working on parameterization of the bare soil evaporation, vertical and horizontal soil water transport and runoff from soil layers. The results from two numerical experiments over the area of P...

Wind energy is one of the fastest growing sectors of renewable energy resources in Poland. Every ... more Wind energy is one of the fastest growing sectors of renewable energy resources in Poland. Every year new wind farms are installed, and on March 2011 the installed capacity of wind power in Poland was 1360 MW (from overall 453 wind power stations, according to Energy Regulatory Office). Wind power is highly dependent on meteorological parameters. In our work we present results from wind speed post-processing and verification of results of numerical forecasting model. The mesoscale COSMO model runs operationally in Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw in the domain of 2700 x 2200 km, on regular grids with a resolution of 14 km, 7 km, and 2.8 km. Forecast range is 78 hours (14 and 7 km) and 30 hours (2.8 km). The model is calculated twice per day (for all resolutions). Example results of model for every resolution in a form of vertical wind profiles and of horizontal wind fields are shown. The fields obtained from model had been verified against Polish SYNOP and TEM...

Soil and atmosphere boundary layer (ABL) interact with each other and influence on physical proce... more Soil and atmosphere boundary layer (ABL) interact with each other and influence on physical processes happen in soil and atmosphere. Current parameterization of soil physics processes in TERRA_ML (multilayer soil module of COSMO model) was prepared 40 years ago and does not give satisfactorily forecast results. Problem of adequate parameterization is somehow neglected by scientists working in this field. To improve mathematical description of physical processes in soil authors prepared the project " New approach to parameterization of Physical Processes in soil in numerical model " started in August 2012 at IMWM-NRI. New parameterizations wereas prepared taking into consideration physical processes in soil (microphysics processes in soil, fluid dynamics in porous media, soil dynamics etc.), water cycle in soil and soil–plant–water relation. The aim of the project was an improvement of present parameterizations of the TERRA_ML in COSMO model. First part of work was connecte...

In the beginning of numerical weather forecasts Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) was designated t... more In the beginning of numerical weather forecasts Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) was designated to accompany deterministic predictions and to present a wide spectrum of possible scenarios. As model(s) resolution increase many of weather phenomena are becoming increasingly stochastic in nature. Thus, the significance of ensemble forecasts is now greater than ever. Perturbations of the lower boundary state (namely conditions of soil and the boundary between soil and lower atmosphere) applied to EPS are also assumed to play an important role at any resolution. So far, however, uncertainties of surface condition are rarely considered in EPSs, although its importance has been shown in various surveys. In order to implement techniques for the perturbation of the soil state, the sensitivity of a model to different soil moisture and temperature initializations should be verified. At Institute of Meteorology and Water Management an analysis of the influence of various COSMO (Consortium for S...

Current problems of Warsaw climate Summary Elaboration is dedicated to climatic conditions in War... more Current problems of Warsaw climate Summary Elaboration is dedicated to climatic conditions in Warsaw. Results are of both cognitive and utility character. One can find here qualitative and quantitative characteristics of Warsaw urban heat island, ventilation systems of the city, perceptible climate conditions and meteorological situations threatening health and life of city inhabitants. Complex precipitation regime in the city is presented as the indicator for plans of modernization of deceptive and worn out storm sewage system in Warsaw. Results of experimental research are used in this elaboration, carried out at the city area by Climatology Dept of the Warsaw University as well as earlier and present author's research results. Obtained effects of the study indicate that urban area of Great Warsaw constitutes of complex topoclimatic conditions from cognitive and practical points of view. Conclusions are formulated in substantial — cognitive and practicable way. The last one sh...

In COSMO model (Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling) physical processes occurring be-tween lower... more In COSMO model (Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling) physical processes occurring be-tween lower atmosphere and upper soil layers were parameterized via soil model TERRA and TERRA/LM (Doms et al., 2007). Since 2009 at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) two new parameterizations, MOSAIC and TILE, (Ament 2006, 2008 and Ament and Simmer, 2010, Duniec and Mazur 2011) have been tested. These parameterizations have taken into account non-homogeneities of the soil in a single grid. In 2009 and 2010 MOSAIC parameterization has been intensively tested (Duniec, Mazur, 2011), and tests were continued in 2011 with TILE parameterization. Tests were carried out using selected data from days with specific synoptic conditions. Different versions of the model code with both TILE and MOSAIC parameterizations implemented were used for tests, using various numerical and convection schemes.