Antoine Yoshinaka - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Uploads
Papers by Antoine Yoshinaka
What are the causal effects of legislative party switching on campaign fundraising? Using a selec... more What are the causal effects of legislative party switching on campaign fundraising? Using a selection-on-observables strategy (a first in the study of U.S. party switchers), we demonstrate that relative to other similarly- situated legislators, party switchers rely more heavily on partisan and ideological, out-of-district individual donors and direct party contributions. In short, switchers—in trying to alleviate the electoral costs of switching— rely disproportionately on donors motivated to protect vulnerable incumbents of a particular party. We conclude with a discussion of how these dynamics reinforce partisan polarization and raise normative questions about representation and the role of the "surrogate constituency."
Supplemental material, Supporting_information_10-15-18AY for Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain: ... more Supplemental material, Supporting_information_10-15-18AY for Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain: The Logic of Legislative Party Switching in the Contemporary American South by Antoine Yoshinaka and Seth C. McKee in State Politics & Policy Quarterly
The Journal of Politics
We theorize that direct social lobbying—the meeting of a lobbyist and public official outside of ... more We theorize that direct social lobbying—the meeting of a lobbyist and public official outside of a formal office—persuades officials to support publicly policies favored by interest groups. Social lobbying influences public officials because the social environment allows for greater receptivity to interest group messages. A randomized field experiment was conducted by a lobbying firm in a US state legislature. Legislators randomly assigned to be socially lobbied more frequently expressed public support for the interest group’s preferred policy than did legislators lobbied in their offices or not contacted by the lobbyist. In addition, an original survey of registered lobbyists was conducted in 10 US states demonstrating that social lobbying regularly occurs. Political elites are influenced by the social environment; interest group direct lobbying is influential when conducted in places not easily observed by the public.
Between 1992 and 2012, nearly 170 Southern state legislators switched from the Democratic to the ... more Between 1992 and 2012, nearly 170 Southern state legislators switched from the Democratic to the Republican Party. While many would assume that these conversions came about as legislators became increasingly concerned about their re-election chances, new research from Antoine Yoshinaka points to another explanation. He finds that shifts in the longer term characteristics of constituencies; such as changes to the black and Latino populations, as well as the state’s larger political context, explain why many legislators switch parties and others do not.
The disfranchisement of felons and ex-felons is one of the few remaining disfranchising electoral... more The disfranchisement of felons and ex-felons is one of the few remaining disfranchising electoral institutions in the U.S., though many states have actually modified their statutes since the 1960s in order to become less restrictive. In this paper, we answer the following question: Under what conditions do states enact more inclusive provisions pertaining to the voting rights of persons convicted of a felony? By answering this research question, we also address two open questions in the study of American politics more broadly: (1) Do political parties seek to change the electoral system and voting laws for electoral advantages? And (2) do parties override the ideological preferences of the constituency in order to advance their electoral agenda? We find that, in the case of felon disfranchisement laws in the United States, the answer to both of these questions is 'yes'. We find that a unified Democratic government is more likely to liberalize its disfranchising provisions. Further, we show that states where Democrats are not strongly supported in the electorate are also more likely to enact such provisions. Finally, we find no evidence that a state's ideology (and thus constituency preferences on these issues) affects changes in voting rights for felons and ex-felons. The implications of our analysis for scholars of parties and voting rights are clear. Electoral rules are changed when a party stands to benefit from that change. The constituencybased explanation of electoral system change, however, is not demonstrated. Thus, parties seem to matter at the state level, contrary to expectations of Krehbiel (1993) and supporting the expectations of Wright and Schaffner (2002). ________________ We would like to thank Chris Uggen and Angie Behrens for sharing their data and Poonam Kumar for assistance with data collection. We also thank Yvette Alex-Assensoh and Kevin Clarke for helpful comments and suggestions on earlier drafts of the paper.
American Politics Research
What are the causal effects of legislative party switching on campaign fundraising? Using a selec... more What are the causal effects of legislative party switching on campaign fundraising? Using a selection-on-observables strategy (a first in the study of U.S. party switchers), we demonstrate that relative to other similarly situated legislators, party switchers rely more heavily on partisan and ideological, out-of-district individual donors, and direct party contributions. In short, switchers—in trying to alleviate the electoral costs of switching—rely disproportionately on donors motivated to protect vulnerable incumbents of a particular party. We conclude with a discussion of how these dynamics reinforce partisan polarization and raise normative questions about representation and the role of the “surrogate constituency.”
Canadian Journal of Political Science
In this paper, we investigate the phenomenon of party switchers in the Canadian House of Commons.... more In this paper, we investigate the phenomenon of party switchers in the Canadian House of Commons. With the most extensive dataset on party-switching MPs (1867–2015), we answer the following questions: What are the electoral trajectories of party switchers? Have their prospects changed over time? We assess whether the historical dynamics of the Canadian party system explain changes in the incidence and fate of party switchers since 1867, hypothesizing that both the rate of party switching and the electoral fortunes of floor crossers decline over time. The evidence accords with our second hypothesis more strongly than our first. Party switching has become slightly less common, but the electoral consequence has become much more severe.
State Politics & Policy Quarterly
One of the most important career decisions for a legislator is the decision to switch parties, an... more One of the most important career decisions for a legislator is the decision to switch parties, and it raises a theoretical puzzle: it carries significant risk, yet sometimes legislators do change partisan affiliation. We elucidate this puzzle with the first-ever systematic comparison of the entire careers of state legislative switchers and non-switchers in the American South, where the high prevalence of party switching coincided with rapid realignment toward the Republican Party. Our analysis is the first to evaluate all post-switch career decisions (retiring, running for reelection, running for higher office) simultaneously, and it is the broadest in its scope with two full decades of career data. We demonstrate that converts to the Grand Old Party (GOP) pay a reelection cost. However, they are less likely to retire than Democratic non-switchers and more likely to seek higher office. This latter finding is especially strong during the earlier part of our study—when the Republican ...
In this paper, we investigate the phenomenon of party switchers in the Canadian House of Commons.... more In this paper, we investigate the phenomenon of party switchers in the Canadian House of Commons. With the most extensive dataset on party-switching MPs (1867–2015), we answer the following questions: What are the electoral trajectories of party switchers? Have their prospects changed over time? We assess whether the historical dynamics of the Canadian party system explain changes in the incidence and fate of party switchers since 1867, hypothesizing that both the rate of party switching and the electoral fortunes of floor crossers decline over time. The evidence accords with our second hypothesis more strongly than our first. Party switching has become slightly less common, but the electoral consequence has become much more severe.
What are the causal effects of legislative party switching on campaign fundraising? Using a selec... more What are the causal effects of legislative party switching on campaign fundraising? Using a selection-on-observables strategy (a first in the study of U.S. party switchers), we demonstrate that relative to other similarly- situated legislators, party switchers rely more heavily on partisan and ideological, out-of-district individual donors and direct party contributions. In short, switchers—in trying to alleviate the electoral costs of switching— rely disproportionately on donors motivated to protect vulnerable incumbents of a particular party. We conclude with a discussion of how these dynamics reinforce partisan polarization and raise normative questions about representation and the role of the "surrogate constituency."
Supplemental material, Supporting_information_10-15-18AY for Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain: ... more Supplemental material, Supporting_information_10-15-18AY for Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain: The Logic of Legislative Party Switching in the Contemporary American South by Antoine Yoshinaka and Seth C. McKee in State Politics & Policy Quarterly
The Journal of Politics
We theorize that direct social lobbying—the meeting of a lobbyist and public official outside of ... more We theorize that direct social lobbying—the meeting of a lobbyist and public official outside of a formal office—persuades officials to support publicly policies favored by interest groups. Social lobbying influences public officials because the social environment allows for greater receptivity to interest group messages. A randomized field experiment was conducted by a lobbying firm in a US state legislature. Legislators randomly assigned to be socially lobbied more frequently expressed public support for the interest group’s preferred policy than did legislators lobbied in their offices or not contacted by the lobbyist. In addition, an original survey of registered lobbyists was conducted in 10 US states demonstrating that social lobbying regularly occurs. Political elites are influenced by the social environment; interest group direct lobbying is influential when conducted in places not easily observed by the public.
Between 1992 and 2012, nearly 170 Southern state legislators switched from the Democratic to the ... more Between 1992 and 2012, nearly 170 Southern state legislators switched from the Democratic to the Republican Party. While many would assume that these conversions came about as legislators became increasingly concerned about their re-election chances, new research from Antoine Yoshinaka points to another explanation. He finds that shifts in the longer term characteristics of constituencies; such as changes to the black and Latino populations, as well as the state’s larger political context, explain why many legislators switch parties and others do not.
The disfranchisement of felons and ex-felons is one of the few remaining disfranchising electoral... more The disfranchisement of felons and ex-felons is one of the few remaining disfranchising electoral institutions in the U.S., though many states have actually modified their statutes since the 1960s in order to become less restrictive. In this paper, we answer the following question: Under what conditions do states enact more inclusive provisions pertaining to the voting rights of persons convicted of a felony? By answering this research question, we also address two open questions in the study of American politics more broadly: (1) Do political parties seek to change the electoral system and voting laws for electoral advantages? And (2) do parties override the ideological preferences of the constituency in order to advance their electoral agenda? We find that, in the case of felon disfranchisement laws in the United States, the answer to both of these questions is 'yes'. We find that a unified Democratic government is more likely to liberalize its disfranchising provisions. Further, we show that states where Democrats are not strongly supported in the electorate are also more likely to enact such provisions. Finally, we find no evidence that a state's ideology (and thus constituency preferences on these issues) affects changes in voting rights for felons and ex-felons. The implications of our analysis for scholars of parties and voting rights are clear. Electoral rules are changed when a party stands to benefit from that change. The constituencybased explanation of electoral system change, however, is not demonstrated. Thus, parties seem to matter at the state level, contrary to expectations of Krehbiel (1993) and supporting the expectations of Wright and Schaffner (2002). ________________ We would like to thank Chris Uggen and Angie Behrens for sharing their data and Poonam Kumar for assistance with data collection. We also thank Yvette Alex-Assensoh and Kevin Clarke for helpful comments and suggestions on earlier drafts of the paper.
American Politics Research
What are the causal effects of legislative party switching on campaign fundraising? Using a selec... more What are the causal effects of legislative party switching on campaign fundraising? Using a selection-on-observables strategy (a first in the study of U.S. party switchers), we demonstrate that relative to other similarly situated legislators, party switchers rely more heavily on partisan and ideological, out-of-district individual donors, and direct party contributions. In short, switchers—in trying to alleviate the electoral costs of switching—rely disproportionately on donors motivated to protect vulnerable incumbents of a particular party. We conclude with a discussion of how these dynamics reinforce partisan polarization and raise normative questions about representation and the role of the “surrogate constituency.”
Canadian Journal of Political Science
In this paper, we investigate the phenomenon of party switchers in the Canadian House of Commons.... more In this paper, we investigate the phenomenon of party switchers in the Canadian House of Commons. With the most extensive dataset on party-switching MPs (1867–2015), we answer the following questions: What are the electoral trajectories of party switchers? Have their prospects changed over time? We assess whether the historical dynamics of the Canadian party system explain changes in the incidence and fate of party switchers since 1867, hypothesizing that both the rate of party switching and the electoral fortunes of floor crossers decline over time. The evidence accords with our second hypothesis more strongly than our first. Party switching has become slightly less common, but the electoral consequence has become much more severe.
State Politics & Policy Quarterly
One of the most important career decisions for a legislator is the decision to switch parties, an... more One of the most important career decisions for a legislator is the decision to switch parties, and it raises a theoretical puzzle: it carries significant risk, yet sometimes legislators do change partisan affiliation. We elucidate this puzzle with the first-ever systematic comparison of the entire careers of state legislative switchers and non-switchers in the American South, where the high prevalence of party switching coincided with rapid realignment toward the Republican Party. Our analysis is the first to evaluate all post-switch career decisions (retiring, running for reelection, running for higher office) simultaneously, and it is the broadest in its scope with two full decades of career data. We demonstrate that converts to the Grand Old Party (GOP) pay a reelection cost. However, they are less likely to retire than Democratic non-switchers and more likely to seek higher office. This latter finding is especially strong during the earlier part of our study—when the Republican ...
In this paper, we investigate the phenomenon of party switchers in the Canadian House of Commons.... more In this paper, we investigate the phenomenon of party switchers in the Canadian House of Commons. With the most extensive dataset on party-switching MPs (1867–2015), we answer the following questions: What are the electoral trajectories of party switchers? Have their prospects changed over time? We assess whether the historical dynamics of the Canadian party system explain changes in the incidence and fate of party switchers since 1867, hypothesizing that both the rate of party switching and the electoral fortunes of floor crossers decline over time. The evidence accords with our second hypothesis more strongly than our first. Party switching has become slightly less common, but the electoral consequence has become much more severe.