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Papers by Aurea Marques

Research paper thumbnail of Macroprudential Policy Spillovers in International Banking Groups. Beggar-Thy-Neighbour and the Role of Internal Capital Markets

Social Science Research Network, 2022

Research paper thumbnail of The Certification Role of the Eu-Wide Stress Testing Exercises in the Stock Market. What Can We Learn from the Stress Tests (2014-2021)?

Research paper thumbnail of Stress Tests and Capital Requirement Disclosures: Do They Impact Banks’ Lending and Risk-Taking Decisions?

SSRN Electronic Journal

This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). T... more This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.

Research paper thumbnail of Evaluating the benefits of euro area dividend distribution recommendations on lending and provisioning

Macroprudential Bulletin, Jun 28, 2021

Research paper thumbnail of Systemic liquidity concept, measurement and macroprudential instruments

Research Papers in Economics, Oct 1, 2018

Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.

Research paper thumbnail of How Do Banking Groups React to Macroprudential Policies? Cross-Border Spillover Effects of Higher Capital Buffers on Lending, Risk-Taking and Internal Markets

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2020

Research paper thumbnail of Potential impact of government loan guarantee schemes on bank losses

Research paper thumbnail of Impact of Higher Capital Buffers on Banks’ Lending and Risk-Taking: Evidence from the Euro Area Experiments

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019

This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). T... more This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.

Research paper thumbnail of The Effects of the Stress-Testing Exercises on Banks’ Lending, Profitability and Risk-Taking: Are There Unintended Side Effects?

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019

This research aims to investigate whether the stress-testing exercises affect credit supply, bank... more This research aims to investigate whether the stress-testing exercises affect credit supply, banks’ profitability and risk-taking behaviour. The granular confidential supervisory data of Euro Area banks allows for a quasi-natural experiment to identify this impact with a difference-in-differences matching estimator. We find that, as a consequence of the 2016 stress-testing exercises, treated banks increase their capital ratios by reducing their lending and risk-taking to households and non-financial corporates, implying a decrease in banks' profitability. Results support the hypothesis that the implementation of the stress-testing framework could have a positive disciplining effect by reducing banks' risk-taking while having also an adverse impact on the real economy through a temporary decrease in credit supply and profitability. Results are stable for different specifications and were validated by the parallel trend test and a supplementary regression approach. In addition, we provide an analysis focused on stress-testing results publicly available (versus not available), suggesting that the disclosure of the stress test results reinforces the supervisory and market discipline.

Research paper thumbnail of A sensibilidade política do investimento português no Brasil

TITLE: The political sensivity of Portuguese foreign investment in Brazil: A case study ABSTRACT:... more TITLE: The political sensivity of Portuguese foreign investment in Brazil: A case study ABSTRACT: Economic globalization associated with intense and volatile capital movements lead corporations to keep risk at the centre stage of the analysis of their investment decisions. There are several studies that analyze the impact of different types of risks that are faced by firms. In this particular study, we analyze the political sensiti- vity of the Portuguese investment in Brazil. The case study shows that the investment is not as politically sensitive as analyses in trade newspapers and magazines tends to suggest. In particular, the case study reveals that implicit probabilities of 52% in the case of expropriation, 12.33% in the case of blocked funds, and 38% in the case of change in fiscal policy. These probabilities reveal the confidence that Portuguese managers had when making their invest- ments in Brazil. Recent experience shows that these levels of confidence did not turn out to ...

Research paper thumbnail of Macroprudential Policy Spillovers in International Banking Groups. Beggar-Thy-Neighbour and the Role of Internal Capital Markets

Social Science Research Network, 2022

Research paper thumbnail of The Certification Role of the Eu-Wide Stress Testing Exercises in the Stock Market. What Can We Learn from the Stress Tests (2014-2021)?

Research paper thumbnail of Stress Tests and Capital Requirement Disclosures: Do They Impact Banks’ Lending and Risk-Taking Decisions?

SSRN Electronic Journal

This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). T... more This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.

Research paper thumbnail of Evaluating the benefits of euro area dividend distribution recommendations on lending and provisioning

Macroprudential Bulletin, Jun 28, 2021

Research paper thumbnail of Systemic liquidity concept, measurement and macroprudential instruments

Research Papers in Economics, Oct 1, 2018

Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.

Research paper thumbnail of How Do Banking Groups React to Macroprudential Policies? Cross-Border Spillover Effects of Higher Capital Buffers on Lending, Risk-Taking and Internal Markets

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2020

Research paper thumbnail of Potential impact of government loan guarantee schemes on bank losses

Research paper thumbnail of Impact of Higher Capital Buffers on Banks’ Lending and Risk-Taking: Evidence from the Euro Area Experiments

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019

This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). T... more This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.

Research paper thumbnail of The Effects of the Stress-Testing Exercises on Banks’ Lending, Profitability and Risk-Taking: Are There Unintended Side Effects?

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019

This research aims to investigate whether the stress-testing exercises affect credit supply, bank... more This research aims to investigate whether the stress-testing exercises affect credit supply, banks’ profitability and risk-taking behaviour. The granular confidential supervisory data of Euro Area banks allows for a quasi-natural experiment to identify this impact with a difference-in-differences matching estimator. We find that, as a consequence of the 2016 stress-testing exercises, treated banks increase their capital ratios by reducing their lending and risk-taking to households and non-financial corporates, implying a decrease in banks' profitability. Results support the hypothesis that the implementation of the stress-testing framework could have a positive disciplining effect by reducing banks' risk-taking while having also an adverse impact on the real economy through a temporary decrease in credit supply and profitability. Results are stable for different specifications and were validated by the parallel trend test and a supplementary regression approach. In addition, we provide an analysis focused on stress-testing results publicly available (versus not available), suggesting that the disclosure of the stress test results reinforces the supervisory and market discipline.

Research paper thumbnail of A sensibilidade política do investimento português no Brasil

TITLE: The political sensivity of Portuguese foreign investment in Brazil: A case study ABSTRACT:... more TITLE: The political sensivity of Portuguese foreign investment in Brazil: A case study ABSTRACT: Economic globalization associated with intense and volatile capital movements lead corporations to keep risk at the centre stage of the analysis of their investment decisions. There are several studies that analyze the impact of different types of risks that are faced by firms. In this particular study, we analyze the political sensiti- vity of the Portuguese investment in Brazil. The case study shows that the investment is not as politically sensitive as analyses in trade newspapers and magazines tends to suggest. In particular, the case study reveals that implicit probabilities of 52% in the case of expropriation, 12.33% in the case of blocked funds, and 38% in the case of change in fiscal policy. These probabilities reveal the confidence that Portuguese managers had when making their invest- ments in Brazil. Recent experience shows that these levels of confidence did not turn out to ...

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