Barbara Lence - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Barbara Lence
World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2011, May 19, 2011
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 1996
A Chebyshev criterion is used to develop robust direct regulation water-quality management models... more A Chebyshev criterion is used to develop robust direct regulation water-quality management models. The reserve capacity of the stream, in terms of the excess capacities above the water-quality goal at the most critical water-quality checkpoints, is used as a measure of robustness of the management solutions to uncertainties in the water-quality input information. The models maximize the minimum reserve capacity along the river. They are applied to the control of biochemical oxygen–demanding waste in an example river basin based on the Willamette River in Oregon. The addition of a robustness measure in the model formulation gives additional insight into the management system. Although the mathematical formulation of the application is simple, the results provide important information for decision makers, such as identifying polluters with high waste-treatment cost per unit dissolved oxygen improvement at the critical stream locations. Such information is often useful for screening alternative options and making sophisticated water-quality policy and management decisions, based on detailed dynamic water-quality simulation.
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Mar 1, 1995
A nonstationary Markov chain approach to designing seasonal risk-equivalent water-quality managem... more A nonstationary Markov chain approach to designing seasonal risk-equivalent water-quality management strategies is presented in this paper. Unlike many existing models for determining seasonal waste load allocations, this approach considers a wider range of possible low-flow conditions than those in the observed historical record. It explicitly incorporates the probabilistic relationships between low-flow data at adjacent gauging stations. The approach is demonstrated for the management of biochemical oxygen demanding (BOD) waste on the Willamette River in Oregon. The results of this application are compared with those of an existing model for seasonal risk-equivalent waste management. The treatment strategies derived for the Markov chain approach are similar, but slightly more conservative than those for the alternative program. Moreover, the ability of these treatment strategies to achieve an acceptable probability of water-quality violation is potentially less sensitive to the length of the historical ...
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Journal of Infrastructure Systems, Jun 1, 2009
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Traditionally, uncertainty-related analyses of water resources systems, such as flood frequency a... more Traditionally, uncertainty-related analyses of water resources systems, such as flood frequency analyses for mitigation, are performed under stationary conditions, where, statistical properties, such as the means and variances of random variables involved are assumed to be constant with time. In some cases, due to natural and artificial influences, hydrometric data are reportedly experiencing shifts, trends or other changes, even on an annual time scale. In identifying sustainable management solutions for water resources systems it is important to recognize impacts of such changes on risks of system failure. This information may be particularly valuable for long-term planning of water resources projects. Methods of assessing risks of water resources systems are summarized herein. The work identifies risk analyses for systems with different characteristics, static or dynamic, and nonrepairable or repairable. It is shown that a stochastic point process is an effective tool for risk analyses of systems characterized by non-stationary conditions. Risk analyses of repairable systems with long-term non-stationarities, representative of many cases in the water resources engineering, have not been extensively investigated. A marked inhomogeneous alternating renewal process is shown to be suitable for such cases, and the discussion of this process presented herein provides a foundation for further exploration of its applicability.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Sep 1, 2009
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Water Challenge: Balancing the Risks: Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium 2002, 2002
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96 p.Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1988.Transferable discharge perm... more 96 p.Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1988.Transferable discharge permit (TDP) programs for managing multiple pollutants may be complicated by the interactive environmental impacts and by the joint treatment costs of the pollutants. Under such systems, pollutants may be managed as several individual commodities, or grouped together and managed as a weighted sum of the various pollutants. This thesis presents approaches for (1) evaluating the cost efficiency of TDP programs in which permits for several pollutants are traded as individual commodities, (2) estimating the cost effective weighting factors for TDP programs in which pollutants are grouped together, and (3) determining the equilibrium distribution of financial burden among dischargers participating in TDP markets for multiple pollutants. These approaches are demonstrated for a water quality management program that controls BOD, phosphorus, and nitrogen discharges in a river basin.For programs that manage pollutants individually, two market scenarios, representing simultaneous and sequential TDP markets, are developed to provide high and low benchmarks for cost efficiency, respectively. The costs of these scenarios are compared with each other and with that of a uniform treatment approach. These comparisons suggest that a TDP program that manages several pollutants on an individual basis is a cost effective management strategy for conventional pollutants and that any interdependencies that exist among these pollutants in terms of waste treatment costs do not limit the effectiveness of this program.TDP programs in which pollutants are grouped together reduce the number of permit markets necessary to manage these pollutants. The cost effective weighing factors for such programs are functions of the treatment costs and water quality impacts of the given pollutants and are difficult to determine without complete system information. An approach is developed for estimating these weighting factors for cases where treatment cost information is unknown or uncertain. Programs that manage pollutants as a weighted sum are simulated for five sets of treatment cost data, representing different estimates for the relative marginal treatment costs of the various pollutants. The results of these simulations may be used to identify the cost effective weighting factors that achieve adequate environmental protection and are robust to a range of treatment cost information.U of I OnlyRestricted to the U of I community idenfinitely during batch ingest of legacy ETD
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Journal of Engineering Mechanics-asce, Nov 1, 2007
Traditional approaches for repeatedly updating reliability estimates, as needed in reliability-ba... more Traditional approaches for repeatedly updating reliability estimates, as needed in reliability-based optimal designs or real-time system control, require the iterative application of a reliability method. This paper explores a new strategy for repeatedly estimating reliability under frequent parameter variations. The central idea is to update the design point in the parameter domain, rather than in the traditional random variable domain, by evaluating several parametric sensitivity measures which are systems of nonlinear first-order ordinary differential equations relating the design point to parameter changes. Four numerical algorithms for evaluating the sensitivity measures are developed using the Euler and the improved Euler algorithms. Two solution procedures are applied. One procedure solves for the updated design point directly, while the other solves for both the unit normal vector at the design point and the reliability index separately, and evaluates the product of these to determine the updated design point. The numerical techniques are thoroughly compared with the classical Hasofer and Lind-Rackwitz and Fiessler (HL-RF) algorithm in five numerical examples regarding efficiency and accuracy. It is found that they are efficient and robust under given conditions.
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Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Sep 1, 2008
The evaluation of crossing probability for a given threshold level of a discrete process is an im... more The evaluation of crossing probability for a given threshold level of a discrete process is an important modeling issue in stochastic hydrology. Rice’s formula is a tool to measure the instantaneous crossing rate for a given threshold level in a continuous Gaussian process. This paper examines the discrete application of Rice’s formula to estimating the up-crossing probability in typical discrete stationary univariate Gaussian processes. The results based on Rice’s formula are found to follow a biased pattern relative to the exact solutions, and perform poorly in important scenarios, particularly for estimating resilience in these numerical experiments.
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Journal of waterway, port, coastal, and ocean engineering, 2010
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Apr 1, 2017
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Water Resources Research, Jul 1, 2007
Resilience characterizes the recovery capacity of repairable systems from the failure state to th... more Resilience characterizes the recovery capacity of repairable systems from the failure state to the safe state. Resilience has been recognized as a meaningful probabilistic indicator for evaluating risk‐cost trade‐offs in water resources systems. Traditionally, the resilience in the discrete time domain is estimated by sampling methods, which have a high computational expense. No single approximation approach has been well developed for estimating resilience, even under stationary conditions. This paper proposes two practical approximation methods for estimating the lag‐1 resilience in the discrete time domain. Both methods are theoretical developments, one based on a bivariate normal distribution, and the other based on a stochastic linear prediction of the performance function using the mean point of the failure domain. The foundations of both methods are the first‐order reliability method and the periodic vector autoregressive moving‐average time series model. The methods are robust for a wide range of problem characteristics and are applicable for systems facing stationary or nonstationary input conditions.
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North American Water and Environment Congress & Destructive Water, 1996
Once implemented, a project may result in social, ecological, and economic impacts on both spatia... more Once implemented, a project may result in social, ecological, and economic impacts on both spatially and temporally distributed groups. Sustainable project selection requires that distributional equity be considered for a longer planning horizon, that is, for an inter-generational planning horizon, and a larger spatial scale. In the context of project selection and implementation, distributional equity refers to a fair allocation of the impacts of a project among various groups or individuals. Over lengthened planning horizons, changes may occur in: 1) the distribution of project impacts, 2) the distribution of impacts that is considered fair, and 3) the composition and location of the affected groups. In this work, approaches for evaluating intra-generational equity are described, and major considerations and a framework for evaluating inter-generational equity are proposed. This framework includes possible measures for evaluating distributional equity over long planning horizons. These measures may be useful for practical sustainable decision making.
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An integrated approach for evaluating water supply and treatment options for a river-alluvial gro... more An integrated approach for evaluating water supply and treatment options for a river-alluvial groundwater supply system is presented. Such systems are important because they are commonly used for drinking water supplies due to their proximity to large populations. However, there is limited understanding of the natural mechanisms that impact water quality and of the options for managing these impacts. The combinatorial problem of selecting water supply sources and treatment options is complicated by this lack of information, the interrelationships between these options, the urgent need for a sound public health decision, and other institutional and historical constraints. A framework is developed for evaluating tradeoffs among alternative combinations of source and treatment in the short-term and for addressing the management of such systems over time. The alternatives will be evaluated with respect to the following objectives: the cost of the various treatment alternatives, as well as pumping and monitoring costs; the risk of contamination due to pathogens and the resulting risks to human health; and the available water yield. The framework decomposes the classical groundwater supply system into three subsystems: the source water, water treatment and water distribution network subsystems, and uses reliability-based optimization models to determine operations in each subsystem considering output from adjacent subsystems as constraints. The uncertainties related to information and mechanisms that drive each subsystem are accounted for in the reliability analyses. This approach is developed considering the water supply conditions for the City of Fredericton, New Brunswick; however, it may be generalized for the many similar hydrologic settings that exist in North America.
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Recently, a renewed interest in risk analysis in the potable water supply industry has been broug... more Recently, a renewed interest in risk analysis in the potable water supply industry has been brought about by an increasingly stringent regulatory environment and a more acute sense of the consequences of failure events. The analysis of reliability, both of system mechanics and of system operations, is a key part of risk analysis methodologies. A wide variety of reliability analysis methodologies are currently available to help utilities quantify the probability of system and sub-system failure. In order to truly minimize the risk of system failure, however, utilities need to be able to not only quantify the probability of failure, but also to determine the operational conditions that are the most likely to impact the probability of failure. The conditional reliability approach introduced in this paper addresses both of these needs and therefore offers a useful alternative to traditional probabilistic reliability analyses. The utility of the approach is demonstrated through several case studies using data from North American systems.
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Drinking water supply utilities are responsible for providing a safe and reliable supply of potab... more Drinking water supply utilities are responsible for providing a safe and reliable supply of potable water to their customers. Their ability to do so can be hampered by natural disasters, anthropogenic disasters, and performance failure. These events constitute the major risk vectors in potable water supply. The frequency and severity of disaster-type events and their impacts on water supply have been well studied. As such, the focus herein is on the analysis of the mechanical and operational failure events that result in performance risk. While tools for the analysis of the likelihood and severity of performance risk vectors currently exist, a general framework for the performance risk analysis across entire water supply systems remains to be developed. This paper presents a framework for the analysis of performance risk in water supply that can be applied to the entire system or to individual sub systems.
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Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, Sep 1, 2010
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Aqua, Mar 1, 2011
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Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Mar 1, 2020
AbstractThe reliability of water distribution network (WDN) designs for satisfying water demands ... more AbstractThe reliability of water distribution network (WDN) designs for satisfying water demands under normal and abnormal operating conditions, including during pipe bursts and as systems age, is ...
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2011, May 19, 2011
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 1996
A Chebyshev criterion is used to develop robust direct regulation water-quality management models... more A Chebyshev criterion is used to develop robust direct regulation water-quality management models. The reserve capacity of the stream, in terms of the excess capacities above the water-quality goal at the most critical water-quality checkpoints, is used as a measure of robustness of the management solutions to uncertainties in the water-quality input information. The models maximize the minimum reserve capacity along the river. They are applied to the control of biochemical oxygen–demanding waste in an example river basin based on the Willamette River in Oregon. The addition of a robustness measure in the model formulation gives additional insight into the management system. Although the mathematical formulation of the application is simple, the results provide important information for decision makers, such as identifying polluters with high waste-treatment cost per unit dissolved oxygen improvement at the critical stream locations. Such information is often useful for screening alternative options and making sophisticated water-quality policy and management decisions, based on detailed dynamic water-quality simulation.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Mar 1, 1995
A nonstationary Markov chain approach to designing seasonal risk-equivalent water-quality managem... more A nonstationary Markov chain approach to designing seasonal risk-equivalent water-quality management strategies is presented in this paper. Unlike many existing models for determining seasonal waste load allocations, this approach considers a wider range of possible low-flow conditions than those in the observed historical record. It explicitly incorporates the probabilistic relationships between low-flow data at adjacent gauging stations. The approach is demonstrated for the management of biochemical oxygen demanding (BOD) waste on the Willamette River in Oregon. The results of this application are compared with those of an existing model for seasonal risk-equivalent waste management. The treatment strategies derived for the Markov chain approach are similar, but slightly more conservative than those for the alternative program. Moreover, the ability of these treatment strategies to achieve an acceptable probability of water-quality violation is potentially less sensitive to the length of the historical ...
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Journal of Infrastructure Systems, Jun 1, 2009
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Traditionally, uncertainty-related analyses of water resources systems, such as flood frequency a... more Traditionally, uncertainty-related analyses of water resources systems, such as flood frequency analyses for mitigation, are performed under stationary conditions, where, statistical properties, such as the means and variances of random variables involved are assumed to be constant with time. In some cases, due to natural and artificial influences, hydrometric data are reportedly experiencing shifts, trends or other changes, even on an annual time scale. In identifying sustainable management solutions for water resources systems it is important to recognize impacts of such changes on risks of system failure. This information may be particularly valuable for long-term planning of water resources projects. Methods of assessing risks of water resources systems are summarized herein. The work identifies risk analyses for systems with different characteristics, static or dynamic, and nonrepairable or repairable. It is shown that a stochastic point process is an effective tool for risk analyses of systems characterized by non-stationary conditions. Risk analyses of repairable systems with long-term non-stationarities, representative of many cases in the water resources engineering, have not been extensively investigated. A marked inhomogeneous alternating renewal process is shown to be suitable for such cases, and the discussion of this process presented herein provides a foundation for further exploration of its applicability.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Sep 1, 2009
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Water Challenge: Balancing the Risks: Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium 2002, 2002
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
96 p.Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1988.Transferable discharge perm... more 96 p.Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1988.Transferable discharge permit (TDP) programs for managing multiple pollutants may be complicated by the interactive environmental impacts and by the joint treatment costs of the pollutants. Under such systems, pollutants may be managed as several individual commodities, or grouped together and managed as a weighted sum of the various pollutants. This thesis presents approaches for (1) evaluating the cost efficiency of TDP programs in which permits for several pollutants are traded as individual commodities, (2) estimating the cost effective weighting factors for TDP programs in which pollutants are grouped together, and (3) determining the equilibrium distribution of financial burden among dischargers participating in TDP markets for multiple pollutants. These approaches are demonstrated for a water quality management program that controls BOD, phosphorus, and nitrogen discharges in a river basin.For programs that manage pollutants individually, two market scenarios, representing simultaneous and sequential TDP markets, are developed to provide high and low benchmarks for cost efficiency, respectively. The costs of these scenarios are compared with each other and with that of a uniform treatment approach. These comparisons suggest that a TDP program that manages several pollutants on an individual basis is a cost effective management strategy for conventional pollutants and that any interdependencies that exist among these pollutants in terms of waste treatment costs do not limit the effectiveness of this program.TDP programs in which pollutants are grouped together reduce the number of permit markets necessary to manage these pollutants. The cost effective weighing factors for such programs are functions of the treatment costs and water quality impacts of the given pollutants and are difficult to determine without complete system information. An approach is developed for estimating these weighting factors for cases where treatment cost information is unknown or uncertain. Programs that manage pollutants as a weighted sum are simulated for five sets of treatment cost data, representing different estimates for the relative marginal treatment costs of the various pollutants. The results of these simulations may be used to identify the cost effective weighting factors that achieve adequate environmental protection and are robust to a range of treatment cost information.U of I OnlyRestricted to the U of I community idenfinitely during batch ingest of legacy ETD
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Journal of Engineering Mechanics-asce, Nov 1, 2007
Traditional approaches for repeatedly updating reliability estimates, as needed in reliability-ba... more Traditional approaches for repeatedly updating reliability estimates, as needed in reliability-based optimal designs or real-time system control, require the iterative application of a reliability method. This paper explores a new strategy for repeatedly estimating reliability under frequent parameter variations. The central idea is to update the design point in the parameter domain, rather than in the traditional random variable domain, by evaluating several parametric sensitivity measures which are systems of nonlinear first-order ordinary differential equations relating the design point to parameter changes. Four numerical algorithms for evaluating the sensitivity measures are developed using the Euler and the improved Euler algorithms. Two solution procedures are applied. One procedure solves for the updated design point directly, while the other solves for both the unit normal vector at the design point and the reliability index separately, and evaluates the product of these to determine the updated design point. The numerical techniques are thoroughly compared with the classical Hasofer and Lind-Rackwitz and Fiessler (HL-RF) algorithm in five numerical examples regarding efficiency and accuracy. It is found that they are efficient and robust under given conditions.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Sep 1, 2008
The evaluation of crossing probability for a given threshold level of a discrete process is an im... more The evaluation of crossing probability for a given threshold level of a discrete process is an important modeling issue in stochastic hydrology. Rice’s formula is a tool to measure the instantaneous crossing rate for a given threshold level in a continuous Gaussian process. This paper examines the discrete application of Rice’s formula to estimating the up-crossing probability in typical discrete stationary univariate Gaussian processes. The results based on Rice’s formula are found to follow a biased pattern relative to the exact solutions, and perform poorly in important scenarios, particularly for estimating resilience in these numerical experiments.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Journal of waterway, port, coastal, and ocean engineering, 2010
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Apr 1, 2017
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Water Resources Research, Jul 1, 2007
Resilience characterizes the recovery capacity of repairable systems from the failure state to th... more Resilience characterizes the recovery capacity of repairable systems from the failure state to the safe state. Resilience has been recognized as a meaningful probabilistic indicator for evaluating risk‐cost trade‐offs in water resources systems. Traditionally, the resilience in the discrete time domain is estimated by sampling methods, which have a high computational expense. No single approximation approach has been well developed for estimating resilience, even under stationary conditions. This paper proposes two practical approximation methods for estimating the lag‐1 resilience in the discrete time domain. Both methods are theoretical developments, one based on a bivariate normal distribution, and the other based on a stochastic linear prediction of the performance function using the mean point of the failure domain. The foundations of both methods are the first‐order reliability method and the periodic vector autoregressive moving‐average time series model. The methods are robust for a wide range of problem characteristics and are applicable for systems facing stationary or nonstationary input conditions.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
North American Water and Environment Congress & Destructive Water, 1996
Once implemented, a project may result in social, ecological, and economic impacts on both spatia... more Once implemented, a project may result in social, ecological, and economic impacts on both spatially and temporally distributed groups. Sustainable project selection requires that distributional equity be considered for a longer planning horizon, that is, for an inter-generational planning horizon, and a larger spatial scale. In the context of project selection and implementation, distributional equity refers to a fair allocation of the impacts of a project among various groups or individuals. Over lengthened planning horizons, changes may occur in: 1) the distribution of project impacts, 2) the distribution of impacts that is considered fair, and 3) the composition and location of the affected groups. In this work, approaches for evaluating intra-generational equity are described, and major considerations and a framework for evaluating inter-generational equity are proposed. This framework includes possible measures for evaluating distributional equity over long planning horizons. These measures may be useful for practical sustainable decision making.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
An integrated approach for evaluating water supply and treatment options for a river-alluvial gro... more An integrated approach for evaluating water supply and treatment options for a river-alluvial groundwater supply system is presented. Such systems are important because they are commonly used for drinking water supplies due to their proximity to large populations. However, there is limited understanding of the natural mechanisms that impact water quality and of the options for managing these impacts. The combinatorial problem of selecting water supply sources and treatment options is complicated by this lack of information, the interrelationships between these options, the urgent need for a sound public health decision, and other institutional and historical constraints. A framework is developed for evaluating tradeoffs among alternative combinations of source and treatment in the short-term and for addressing the management of such systems over time. The alternatives will be evaluated with respect to the following objectives: the cost of the various treatment alternatives, as well as pumping and monitoring costs; the risk of contamination due to pathogens and the resulting risks to human health; and the available water yield. The framework decomposes the classical groundwater supply system into three subsystems: the source water, water treatment and water distribution network subsystems, and uses reliability-based optimization models to determine operations in each subsystem considering output from adjacent subsystems as constraints. The uncertainties related to information and mechanisms that drive each subsystem are accounted for in the reliability analyses. This approach is developed considering the water supply conditions for the City of Fredericton, New Brunswick; however, it may be generalized for the many similar hydrologic settings that exist in North America.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Recently, a renewed interest in risk analysis in the potable water supply industry has been broug... more Recently, a renewed interest in risk analysis in the potable water supply industry has been brought about by an increasingly stringent regulatory environment and a more acute sense of the consequences of failure events. The analysis of reliability, both of system mechanics and of system operations, is a key part of risk analysis methodologies. A wide variety of reliability analysis methodologies are currently available to help utilities quantify the probability of system and sub-system failure. In order to truly minimize the risk of system failure, however, utilities need to be able to not only quantify the probability of failure, but also to determine the operational conditions that are the most likely to impact the probability of failure. The conditional reliability approach introduced in this paper addresses both of these needs and therefore offers a useful alternative to traditional probabilistic reliability analyses. The utility of the approach is demonstrated through several case studies using data from North American systems.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Drinking water supply utilities are responsible for providing a safe and reliable supply of potab... more Drinking water supply utilities are responsible for providing a safe and reliable supply of potable water to their customers. Their ability to do so can be hampered by natural disasters, anthropogenic disasters, and performance failure. These events constitute the major risk vectors in potable water supply. The frequency and severity of disaster-type events and their impacts on water supply have been well studied. As such, the focus herein is on the analysis of the mechanical and operational failure events that result in performance risk. While tools for the analysis of the likelihood and severity of performance risk vectors currently exist, a general framework for the performance risk analysis across entire water supply systems remains to be developed. This paper presents a framework for the analysis of performance risk in water supply that can be applied to the entire system or to individual sub systems.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, Sep 1, 2010
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Aqua, Mar 1, 2011
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Mar 1, 2020
AbstractThe reliability of water distribution network (WDN) designs for satisfying water demands ... more AbstractThe reliability of water distribution network (WDN) designs for satisfying water demands under normal and abnormal operating conditions, including during pipe bursts and as systems age, is ...
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact