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Papers by Billy Bob

Research paper thumbnail of Sexual-coercion risk in South African adolescent male youth: Risk correlates and HealthWise impacts

Research paper thumbnail of Structural equation modeling with missing data

Research paper thumbnail of LTA as a way of testing models of stage-sequential change in longitudinal data

We explore the role of the composition of government spending for the cyclical properties of fisc... more We explore the role of the composition of government spending for the cyclical properties of fiscal variables and for the volatility of the business cycles. In the U.S., the fraction of mandatory spending in total government outlays increased from around 0.40 to 0.60 during the last 50 years, while the share of total government outlays in national output stayed relatively constant during this period. We distinguish mandatory and discretionary public spending in a standard model of optimal fiscal policy and show that the composition of government spending is able to explain a fraction of the reduction in output volatility during the Great Moderation and an increase in the countercyclicality of fiscal policy in the U.S. This is another argument in support of the "rules-based" fiscal policy rather than fiscal discretion.

Research paper thumbnail of Analysis With Missing Data in Drug Prevention Research

PsycEXTRA Dataset

Missing data problems have been a thorn in the side of prevention researchers for years. Although... more Missing data problems have been a thorn in the side of prevention researchers for years. Although some solutions for these problems have been available in the statistical literature, these solutions have not found their way into mainstream prevention research. This chapter is meant to serve as an introduction to the systematic application of the missing data analysis solutions presented recently by Little and Rubin (1987) and others. The chapter does not describe a complete strategy, but it is relevant for (1) missing data analysis with continuous (but not categorical) data, (2) data that are reasonably normally distributed, and (3) solutions for missing data problems for analyses related to the general linear model in particular, analyses that use (or can use) a covariance matrix as input. The examples in the chapter come from drug prevention research. The chapter discusses (1) the problem of wanting to ask respondents more questions than most individuals can answer; (2) the problem of attrition and some solutions; and (3) the problem of special measurement procedures that are too expensive or time consuming to obtain for all subjects. The authors end with several conclusions: Whenever possible, researchers should use the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm (or other maximum likelihood procedure, including the multiple-group structural equation-modeling procedure or, where appropriate, multiple imputation, for analyses involving missing data [the chapter provides concrete examples]); If researchers must use other analyses, they should keep in mind that these others produce biased results and should not be relied upon for final analyses; When data are missing, the appropriate missing data analysis procedures do not generate something out of nothing but do make the most out of the data available; When data are missing, researchers should work hard (especially when planning a study) to find the cause of missingness and include the cause in the analysis models; and Researchers should sample the cases originally missing (whenever possible) and adjust EM algorithm parameter estimates accordingly.

Research paper thumbnail of Social influence processes affecting adolescent substance use

Journal of Applied Psychology, 1991

Social influence is central to models of adolescent substance use. Nonetheless, researchers fail ... more Social influence is central to models of adolescent substance use. Nonetheless, researchers fail to delineate the various forms of social influence. A framework that distinguishes between active (explicit drug offers) and passive (social modeling and overestimation of friends' use) social pressure was tested. The effect of these processes on alcohol and cigarette use was examined with 526 seventh graders taking part in an alcohol prevention program. Hierarchical regression analyses demonstrated that pretest measures of alcohol use, offers, modeling, and overestimation each accounted for unique variance in posttest alcohol use. Similar results were obtained for cigarette smoking. The general model was not significantly different for boys and girls, or for prior users and prior nonusers, supporting the generalizability of the framework. Implications for intervention programs are discussed. Social influence is a central component of all models of adolescent substance use (e.g.

Research paper thumbnail of Path model of multidimensional compliance with cancer therapy

Health Psychology, 1987

Patients newly diagnosed with hematologic malignancies were followed for a 6-month treatment peri... more Patients newly diagnosed with hematologic malignancies were followed for a 6-month treatment period to assess compliance with three regimen requirements for cancer therapy: anti-neoplastic medication self-administered intermittently, supportive medication self-administered daily, and monthly clinic appointments. The effect on compliance of three intervention "packages" (some combination of education, shaping of pill-taking behavior, and home restructuring) and the extent that patient satisfaction, knowledge, and uncertainty about illness-related events mediated the effects of the interventions were also examined. Blood levels of the drugs and self-report measures indicated that compliance with daily pill taking was higher for each intervention group compared to a control group. Similar results were obtained for compliance with Requests for reprints should be sent to

Research paper thumbnail of Translational Research in South Africa: Evaluating Implementation Quality Using a Factorial Design

Child & Youth Care Forum, 2012

Background HealthWise South Africa: Life Skills for Adolescents (HW) is an evidencebased substanc... more Background HealthWise South Africa: Life Skills for Adolescents (HW) is an evidencebased substance use and sexual risk prevention program that emphasizes the positive use of leisure time. Since 2000, this program has evolved from pilot testing through an efficacy trial involving over 7,000 youth in the Cape Town area. Beginning in 2011, through 2015, we are undertaking a new study that expands HW to all schools in the Metro South Education District. Objective This paper describes a research study designed in partnership with our South African collaborators that examines three factors hypothesized to affect the quality and fidelity of HW implementation: enhanced teacher training; teacher support, structure and supervision; and enhanced school environment. Methods Teachers and students from 56 schools in the Cape Town area will participate in this study. Teacher observations are the primary means of collecting data on factors affecting implementation quality. These factors address the practical concerns of teachers and schools related to likelihood of use and cost-effectiveness, and are hypothesized to be "active ingredients" related to high-quality program implementation in real-world settings. An innovative factorial experimental design was chosen to enable estimation of the individual effect of each of the three factors. Results Because this paper describes the conceptualization of our study, results are not yet available. Conclusions The results of this study may have both substantive and methodological implications for advancing Type 2 translational research.

Research paper thumbnail of On the performance of multiple imputation for multivariate data with small sample size

Research paper thumbnail of Latent Transition Analysis as a Way of Testing Models of Stage-Sequential Change in Longitudinal Data

APA PsycNET Our Apologies! - The following features are not available with your current Browser c... more APA PsycNET Our Apologies! - The following features are not available with your current Browser configuration. - alerts user that their session is about to expire - display, print, save, export, and email selected records - get My ...

Research paper thumbnail of Sexual-coercion risk in South African adolescent male youth: Risk correlates and HealthWise impacts

Research paper thumbnail of Structural equation modeling with missing data

Research paper thumbnail of LTA as a way of testing models of stage-sequential change in longitudinal data

We explore the role of the composition of government spending for the cyclical properties of fisc... more We explore the role of the composition of government spending for the cyclical properties of fiscal variables and for the volatility of the business cycles. In the U.S., the fraction of mandatory spending in total government outlays increased from around 0.40 to 0.60 during the last 50 years, while the share of total government outlays in national output stayed relatively constant during this period. We distinguish mandatory and discretionary public spending in a standard model of optimal fiscal policy and show that the composition of government spending is able to explain a fraction of the reduction in output volatility during the Great Moderation and an increase in the countercyclicality of fiscal policy in the U.S. This is another argument in support of the "rules-based" fiscal policy rather than fiscal discretion.

Research paper thumbnail of Analysis With Missing Data in Drug Prevention Research

PsycEXTRA Dataset

Missing data problems have been a thorn in the side of prevention researchers for years. Although... more Missing data problems have been a thorn in the side of prevention researchers for years. Although some solutions for these problems have been available in the statistical literature, these solutions have not found their way into mainstream prevention research. This chapter is meant to serve as an introduction to the systematic application of the missing data analysis solutions presented recently by Little and Rubin (1987) and others. The chapter does not describe a complete strategy, but it is relevant for (1) missing data analysis with continuous (but not categorical) data, (2) data that are reasonably normally distributed, and (3) solutions for missing data problems for analyses related to the general linear model in particular, analyses that use (or can use) a covariance matrix as input. The examples in the chapter come from drug prevention research. The chapter discusses (1) the problem of wanting to ask respondents more questions than most individuals can answer; (2) the problem of attrition and some solutions; and (3) the problem of special measurement procedures that are too expensive or time consuming to obtain for all subjects. The authors end with several conclusions: Whenever possible, researchers should use the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm (or other maximum likelihood procedure, including the multiple-group structural equation-modeling procedure or, where appropriate, multiple imputation, for analyses involving missing data [the chapter provides concrete examples]); If researchers must use other analyses, they should keep in mind that these others produce biased results and should not be relied upon for final analyses; When data are missing, the appropriate missing data analysis procedures do not generate something out of nothing but do make the most out of the data available; When data are missing, researchers should work hard (especially when planning a study) to find the cause of missingness and include the cause in the analysis models; and Researchers should sample the cases originally missing (whenever possible) and adjust EM algorithm parameter estimates accordingly.

Research paper thumbnail of Social influence processes affecting adolescent substance use

Journal of Applied Psychology, 1991

Social influence is central to models of adolescent substance use. Nonetheless, researchers fail ... more Social influence is central to models of adolescent substance use. Nonetheless, researchers fail to delineate the various forms of social influence. A framework that distinguishes between active (explicit drug offers) and passive (social modeling and overestimation of friends' use) social pressure was tested. The effect of these processes on alcohol and cigarette use was examined with 526 seventh graders taking part in an alcohol prevention program. Hierarchical regression analyses demonstrated that pretest measures of alcohol use, offers, modeling, and overestimation each accounted for unique variance in posttest alcohol use. Similar results were obtained for cigarette smoking. The general model was not significantly different for boys and girls, or for prior users and prior nonusers, supporting the generalizability of the framework. Implications for intervention programs are discussed. Social influence is a central component of all models of adolescent substance use (e.g.

Research paper thumbnail of Path model of multidimensional compliance with cancer therapy

Health Psychology, 1987

Patients newly diagnosed with hematologic malignancies were followed for a 6-month treatment peri... more Patients newly diagnosed with hematologic malignancies were followed for a 6-month treatment period to assess compliance with three regimen requirements for cancer therapy: anti-neoplastic medication self-administered intermittently, supportive medication self-administered daily, and monthly clinic appointments. The effect on compliance of three intervention "packages" (some combination of education, shaping of pill-taking behavior, and home restructuring) and the extent that patient satisfaction, knowledge, and uncertainty about illness-related events mediated the effects of the interventions were also examined. Blood levels of the drugs and self-report measures indicated that compliance with daily pill taking was higher for each intervention group compared to a control group. Similar results were obtained for compliance with Requests for reprints should be sent to

Research paper thumbnail of Translational Research in South Africa: Evaluating Implementation Quality Using a Factorial Design

Child & Youth Care Forum, 2012

Background HealthWise South Africa: Life Skills for Adolescents (HW) is an evidencebased substanc... more Background HealthWise South Africa: Life Skills for Adolescents (HW) is an evidencebased substance use and sexual risk prevention program that emphasizes the positive use of leisure time. Since 2000, this program has evolved from pilot testing through an efficacy trial involving over 7,000 youth in the Cape Town area. Beginning in 2011, through 2015, we are undertaking a new study that expands HW to all schools in the Metro South Education District. Objective This paper describes a research study designed in partnership with our South African collaborators that examines three factors hypothesized to affect the quality and fidelity of HW implementation: enhanced teacher training; teacher support, structure and supervision; and enhanced school environment. Methods Teachers and students from 56 schools in the Cape Town area will participate in this study. Teacher observations are the primary means of collecting data on factors affecting implementation quality. These factors address the practical concerns of teachers and schools related to likelihood of use and cost-effectiveness, and are hypothesized to be "active ingredients" related to high-quality program implementation in real-world settings. An innovative factorial experimental design was chosen to enable estimation of the individual effect of each of the three factors. Results Because this paper describes the conceptualization of our study, results are not yet available. Conclusions The results of this study may have both substantive and methodological implications for advancing Type 2 translational research.

Research paper thumbnail of On the performance of multiple imputation for multivariate data with small sample size

Research paper thumbnail of Latent Transition Analysis as a Way of Testing Models of Stage-Sequential Change in Longitudinal Data

APA PsycNET Our Apologies! - The following features are not available with your current Browser c... more APA PsycNET Our Apologies! - The following features are not available with your current Browser configuration. - alerts user that their session is about to expire - display, print, save, export, and email selected records - get My ...