Henry Blackburn - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Henry Blackburn
New England Journal of Medicine - N ENGL J MED, 1974
Journal of Electrocardiology, 2012
Isolated T-wave findings are generally considered of little importance in clinical electrocardiog... more Isolated T-wave findings are generally considered of little importance in clinical electrocardiogram (ECG) interpretation, although a few studies have associated them with excess mortality risk. We used Cox regression models to evaluate coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality risk for isolated inverted T waves in 8713 men in the Seven Countries Study with no manifest cardiac diseases at baseline. The study population was stratified into 3 mutually exclusive groups: (1) isolated inverted T waves in the absence of other codable ECG findings according to the Minnesota Code; (2) other ECG findings with or without negative T waves; and (3) no codable ECG findings, used as the reference group. Mortality follow-up of the entire cohort was performed at 5, 10, 20, 30, and 40 years. The prevalence of isolated negative T waves at baseline was low, 1.6%, in these men from working populations. The hazard ratio (HR) for CHD mortality risk after 5 years in the isolated T-wave inversion group was more than 3 times greater than that in the reference group after adjusting for age, body mass index, cigarette smoking, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol and cohort (HR 3.68, 95% confidence interval [1.44-9.37]). Hazard ratio declined gradually with the length of follow-up but was still at 50% excess risk at 40-year follow-up (HR 1.51, 95% confidence interval [1.12-2.05]). T waves in the isolated T-wave inversion group were "flat" or less negative than 1mm (-100 μV) in the majority (86%) of inverted T waves. We conclude that inverted T waves with even a minor degree of negativity as an isolated ECG finding in men with no evidence of heart disease predict an excess short-term and long-term risk of CHD death.
The American Journal of Cardiology, 1967
The American Journal of Cardiology, 1976
European Journal of Epidemiology, 2005
Information is limited on the co-existence and prognostic association of the ischemic electrocard... more Information is limited on the co-existence and prognostic association of the ischemic electrocardiogram (ECG) and blood pressure. Prospectively collected data sets from 28,118 examinations in the Copenhagen City Heart Study were analyzed for cardiac morbidity and mortality for a 5.9-year follow-up. The prognosis of the ECG, independently of blood pressure, was examined. The Cox proportional hazard model was employed to
European journal of epidemiology, 2001
This analysis aims at describing all-cause mortality and their determinants in 16 cohorts of midd... more This analysis aims at describing all-cause mortality and their determinants in 16 cohorts of middle-aged men of eight nations. A total of 12,763 men aged 40-59 years were enrolled in the late 1950s and early 1960s in 16 cohorts located in the USA, Finland, The Netherlands, Italy, Croatia, Serbia, Greece and Japan. The highest death rates were found in Slavonia-Croatia, due to high rates of infectious diseases and violence (death rate of 610 per 1000), and in East Finland due to high rates from coronary heart disease (death rate of 597 per 1000). The lowest death rates were found in a highly educated group in Belgrade, Serbia (death rate 295 per 1000) and in Crete, Greece (death rate 314 per 1000). The ecological analysis showed no significant relationship between mean risk factor levels and all-cause death rates except for the direct association with systolic blood pressure during the first 15 years follow-up. Individual multivariate analysis on eight national pools showed that age,...
Archives of internal medicine, Jan 12, 1999
Although most observations in the Seven Countries Study suggest that cigarette smoking is harmful... more Although most observations in the Seven Countries Study suggest that cigarette smoking is harmful for health, universality of this conclusion remains controversial. Cohort-specific and pooled smoking habits at baseline (1957-1964) in 12 763 men aged 40 through 59 years living in Europe, the United States, and Japan in relation to 25-year mortality follow-up. Pooled hazard ratios for smokers vs never smokers were calculated by the Cox proportional hazards model, adjusting for baseline country of residence, age, body mass index, serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and clinical cardiovascular disease. Adjusted hazard ratios for all-causes death in smokers compared with never smokers were 1.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.2-1.4) for smokers of less than 10 cigarettes per day and 1.8 (95% confidence interval, 1.7-1.9) for smokers of 10 cigarettes per day or more. Hazard ratios were elevated for death due to coronary heart disease, all stroke, other arterial disease, lung cancer, ot...
Journal of chronic diseases, 1980
Anecdotes have long suggested that caffeine-containing beverages and other personal habits and ex... more Anecdotes have long suggested that caffeine-containing beverages and other personal habits and excesses trigger palpitations and cardiac extrasystoles. We took the opportunity of a systematic population survey of 7311 men, aged 3757 yr and free of any history of heart disease or ...
Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 1998
The aim of this study was to investigate the independent prognostic value of ischemic electrocard... more The aim of this study was to investigate the independent prognostic value of ischemic electrocardiographic (ECG) findings for cardiovascular mortality and to evaluate a possible sex-differential in this regard. In previous reports, ST segment and T wave changes on the resting ECG were described as independent risk factors for development of coronary heart disease. Although more prevalent in women, they are often given less clinical importance than in men. Ten-year follow-up data from the Belgian Interuniversity Research on Nutrition and Health study were used. The results presented here are based on ECGs of the 4,797 men and 4,320 women, aged 25 to 74 years, who were free of angina pectoris at the start of follow-up, had no history of myocardial infarction (MI) and showed no Q wave evidence of an old MI on their ECG. At baseline, the age-standardized prevalence of an "ischemic ECG" (Minnesota codes I3, IV1-3, V1-3 or VII1) was 8.4% in men and 10.6% in women. Cardiovascular mortality rates in men and women with an ischemic ECG were respectively 7.7 and 2.6 per 1,000 person-years, compared with 2.3 and 1.0 in those with no such ECG findings. After correction for the potential confounding effects of established cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, the multivariately adjusted risk ratios were 2.45 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.70 to 3.53) for men and 2.16 (95% CI: 1.30 to 3.58) for women. Testing the interaction between an ischemic ECG and sex on CVD mortality revealed that the risk ratios were not significantly changed (p=0.95). The etiologic fraction of CVD deaths attributable to an ischemic ECG was estimated as 19.3% for men and 22.4% for women. Both men and women with major ischemic findings in their baseline electrocardiogram (Minnesota codes IV1,2, V1,2 or VII1) had a fourfold increased risk of CVD death. These results support the hypothesis that women with ischemic ECG findings are at the same increased risk for CVD mortality as men.
International Journal of Epidemiology, 1995
Samples of railroad male employees aged 40-59 were examined from companies operating in the north... more Samples of railroad male employees aged 40-59 were examined from companies operating in the northwest quadrant of the US in the late 1950s (n = 2571), and in Rome and surroundings. Italy in the early 1960s (n = 768) in an international co-operative study on cardiovascular diseases. A number of cardiovascular risk factors (age, blood pressure, serum cholesterol, body mass index, subscapular skinfold, physical activity, smoking habits) were measured at year 0 and year 5, while data on mortality and causes of death were collected for 25 years. Coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates were always higher in the US than in Italy; after 25 years the excess was 51%. Cox proportional hazards models with CHD deaths as endpoint and seven CHD risk factors as covariates showed only the coefficients for age and smoking habits statistically different between the two cohorts. Changes in systolic blood pressure during the first 5-year follow-up were additional predictors of 5- to 25-year CHD mortality in both groups. Cholesterol plus age (greater in the US), subscapular skinfold (greater in the US) and body mass index (greater in Italy) 'explained' 67% of the observed differences in 25-year CHD mortality in the two cohorts. A large proportion of differential CHD mortality can be attributed to some traditional risk factors.
International Journal of Cancer, 1995
This ecologic study aimed to investigate whether differences in population mortality from lung, s... more This ecologic study aimed to investigate whether differences in population mortality from lung, stomach and colorectal cancer among the 16 cohorts of the Seven Countries Study could be explained by differences in the average intake of anti-oxidant (pro)vitamins. In the I960s, detailed dietary information was collected in small sub-samples of the cohorts by the dietary record method. In 1987, food-equivalent composites representing the average food intake of each cohort at baseline were collected locally and analyzed in a central laboratory. The vital status of all participants was verified after 25 years of follow-up. The average intake of vitamin C was strongly inversely related to the 25-year stomach-cancer mortality (r = -0.66, p = O.Ol), also after adjustment for smoking and
International Journal of Cancer, 1999
Many observational studies have found that higher consumption of vegetables, and to a lesser exte... more Many observational studies have found that higher consumption of vegetables, and to a lesser extent of fruits, was associated with lower risk of colorectal cancer. In particular, fiber or foods high in fiber have received attention in the potential prevention of colorectal cancer. We performed an ecological analysis with data of the Seven Countries Study, to investigate whether intake of fiber and plant foods contributes to cross-cultural differences in 25-year colorectal-cancer mortality in men. In the Seven Countries Study, around 1960 12,763 men aged 40 to 59 were enrolled in 16 cohorts in 7 countries. Baseline dietary information was gathered in small random samples per cohort, and nutrient intakes were based on chemical analyses of the average diets per cohort. Crude and energy-adjusted mortality-rate ratios were calculated for a change of 10% of the mean intake of fiber and plant foods, i.e., total plant foods, fruits, vegetables, potatoes, grains, and related sub-groups. Fiber intake was inversely associated with colorectal-cancer mortality with an energy-adjusted rate ratio of 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.80-0.97). An increase of 10 gram of daily intake of fiber was associated with a 33% lower 25-year colorectal-cancer mortality risk. Intakes of vitamin B6 [0.84 (0.71-0.99)] and ␣-tocopherol [0.94 (0.89-0.99)] were also inversely associated with risk. Consumption of plant foods and related sub-groups was not related to colorectal cancer. It appears that fiber intake best indicates the part of plant food consumption, including whole grains, that is relevant for lowering colorectal cancer risk. Int.
European Journal of Epidemiology, 2007
Time trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality during a 40-year follow-up were studied in ... more Time trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality during a 40-year follow-up were studied in the Seven Countries Study. Thirteen cohorts of men aged 40-59 at entry were enrolled in seven countries (USA, Finland, the Netherlands, Italy, Serbia, Greece and Japan) for a total of 10,628 subjects. Cardiovascular risk factors were measured at entry and at the 10-year follow-up examination and coronary heart disease mortality data collected during 40 years. During the 40-year follow-up, the hazard rate of the Weibull parametric distribution (annual conditional risk of death) for CHD mortality tended to slightly decline in the US, Finnish, Dutch and Japanese cohorts, moderately increased in Italy and exponentially increased in cohorts of Serbia and Greece. A strong positive association was found between the shape of the hazard curve, describing the acceleration of the hazard, and a score of population mean risk factor changes (serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and smoking prevalence) observed during the first 10 years of follow-up, with a correlation coefficient of 0.91 between the two indicators. The countries with a relative decline in the annual hazard function were the same where, during the same historical period, large decreases in official death rate from CHD were recorded, and viceversa. The acceleration in mortality risk for CHD mortality in different countries, described by the shape of the Weibull distribution, is related to changes in mean levels of major coronary risk factors.
European Journal of Cardiovascular Prevention & Rehabilitation, 2008
Background-The aim was to investigate whether multivariate coefficients of serum cholesterol in t... more Background-The aim was to investigate whether multivariate coefficients of serum cholesterol in the prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths were similar across different cultures in a long term follow-up.
Circulation, 2005
Background-Although US cholesterol concentrations have dropped, Ϸ50% of adults have total cholest... more Background-Although US cholesterol concentrations have dropped, Ϸ50% of adults have total cholesterol concentrations Ն5.18 mmol/L, putting them at "borderline-high risk" for heart disease. Whether the decline has continued into the 21st century is unknown. We assessed 20-year trends in cholesterol, hypercholesterolemia, lipid-lowering drug use, and cholesterol awareness, treatment, and control from Minnesota Heart Survey (MHS) data.
Circulation, 1999
Background-We evaluated short-and long-term mortality risks in 30-to 74-year-old patients hospita... more Background-We evaluated short-and long-term mortality risks in 30-to 74-year-old patients hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction or unstable angina and developed a new score called PREDICT. Methods and Results-PREDICT was based on information routinely collected in hospital. Predictors abstracted from hospital record items pertaining to the admission day, including shock, heart failure, ECG findings, cardiovascular disease history, kidney function, and age. Comorbidity was assessed from discharge diagnoses, and mortality was determined from death certificates. For 1985 and 1990 hospitalizations, the 6-year death rate in 6134 patients with 0 to 1 score points was 4%, increasing stepwise to 89% for Ն16 points. Score validity was established by only slightly attenuated mortality prediction in 3570 admissions in 1970 and 1980. When case severity was controlled for, 6-year risk declined 32% between 1970 and 1990. When PREDICT was held constant, 24% of those treated with thrombolysis died in 6 years compared with 31% of those not treated. Conclusions-The simple PREDICT risk score was a powerful prognosticator of 6-year mortality after hospitalization.
Circulation, 1960
Information now available about the prevalence and incidence of coronary heart disease is serious... more Information now available about the prevalence and incidence of coronary heart disease is seriously deficient because of the lack of standardized and objective methods of collection, tabulation, interpretation, and reporting of survey data. Chief reliance in the objective ...
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1966
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 2006
Page 1. COMPARISON OF CARDIOVASCULAR AND RELATED CHARACTERISTICS IN HABITUAL SMOKERS AND NONSMOKE... more Page 1. COMPARISON OF CARDIOVASCULAR AND RELATED CHARACTERISTICS IN HABITUAL SMOKERS AND NONSMOKERS* Henry Blackburn, Josef Brozek,t Henry L. Taylor, Ancel Keys Laboratory of Physiological ...
New England Journal of Medicine - N ENGL J MED, 1974
Journal of Electrocardiology, 2012
Isolated T-wave findings are generally considered of little importance in clinical electrocardiog... more Isolated T-wave findings are generally considered of little importance in clinical electrocardiogram (ECG) interpretation, although a few studies have associated them with excess mortality risk. We used Cox regression models to evaluate coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality risk for isolated inverted T waves in 8713 men in the Seven Countries Study with no manifest cardiac diseases at baseline. The study population was stratified into 3 mutually exclusive groups: (1) isolated inverted T waves in the absence of other codable ECG findings according to the Minnesota Code; (2) other ECG findings with or without negative T waves; and (3) no codable ECG findings, used as the reference group. Mortality follow-up of the entire cohort was performed at 5, 10, 20, 30, and 40 years. The prevalence of isolated negative T waves at baseline was low, 1.6%, in these men from working populations. The hazard ratio (HR) for CHD mortality risk after 5 years in the isolated T-wave inversion group was more than 3 times greater than that in the reference group after adjusting for age, body mass index, cigarette smoking, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol and cohort (HR 3.68, 95% confidence interval [1.44-9.37]). Hazard ratio declined gradually with the length of follow-up but was still at 50% excess risk at 40-year follow-up (HR 1.51, 95% confidence interval [1.12-2.05]). T waves in the isolated T-wave inversion group were "flat" or less negative than 1mm (-100 μV) in the majority (86%) of inverted T waves. We conclude that inverted T waves with even a minor degree of negativity as an isolated ECG finding in men with no evidence of heart disease predict an excess short-term and long-term risk of CHD death.
The American Journal of Cardiology, 1967
The American Journal of Cardiology, 1976
European Journal of Epidemiology, 2005
Information is limited on the co-existence and prognostic association of the ischemic electrocard... more Information is limited on the co-existence and prognostic association of the ischemic electrocardiogram (ECG) and blood pressure. Prospectively collected data sets from 28,118 examinations in the Copenhagen City Heart Study were analyzed for cardiac morbidity and mortality for a 5.9-year follow-up. The prognosis of the ECG, independently of blood pressure, was examined. The Cox proportional hazard model was employed to
European journal of epidemiology, 2001
This analysis aims at describing all-cause mortality and their determinants in 16 cohorts of midd... more This analysis aims at describing all-cause mortality and their determinants in 16 cohorts of middle-aged men of eight nations. A total of 12,763 men aged 40-59 years were enrolled in the late 1950s and early 1960s in 16 cohorts located in the USA, Finland, The Netherlands, Italy, Croatia, Serbia, Greece and Japan. The highest death rates were found in Slavonia-Croatia, due to high rates of infectious diseases and violence (death rate of 610 per 1000), and in East Finland due to high rates from coronary heart disease (death rate of 597 per 1000). The lowest death rates were found in a highly educated group in Belgrade, Serbia (death rate 295 per 1000) and in Crete, Greece (death rate 314 per 1000). The ecological analysis showed no significant relationship between mean risk factor levels and all-cause death rates except for the direct association with systolic blood pressure during the first 15 years follow-up. Individual multivariate analysis on eight national pools showed that age,...
Archives of internal medicine, Jan 12, 1999
Although most observations in the Seven Countries Study suggest that cigarette smoking is harmful... more Although most observations in the Seven Countries Study suggest that cigarette smoking is harmful for health, universality of this conclusion remains controversial. Cohort-specific and pooled smoking habits at baseline (1957-1964) in 12 763 men aged 40 through 59 years living in Europe, the United States, and Japan in relation to 25-year mortality follow-up. Pooled hazard ratios for smokers vs never smokers were calculated by the Cox proportional hazards model, adjusting for baseline country of residence, age, body mass index, serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and clinical cardiovascular disease. Adjusted hazard ratios for all-causes death in smokers compared with never smokers were 1.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.2-1.4) for smokers of less than 10 cigarettes per day and 1.8 (95% confidence interval, 1.7-1.9) for smokers of 10 cigarettes per day or more. Hazard ratios were elevated for death due to coronary heart disease, all stroke, other arterial disease, lung cancer, ot...
Journal of chronic diseases, 1980
Anecdotes have long suggested that caffeine-containing beverages and other personal habits and ex... more Anecdotes have long suggested that caffeine-containing beverages and other personal habits and excesses trigger palpitations and cardiac extrasystoles. We took the opportunity of a systematic population survey of 7311 men, aged 3757 yr and free of any history of heart disease or ...
Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 1998
The aim of this study was to investigate the independent prognostic value of ischemic electrocard... more The aim of this study was to investigate the independent prognostic value of ischemic electrocardiographic (ECG) findings for cardiovascular mortality and to evaluate a possible sex-differential in this regard. In previous reports, ST segment and T wave changes on the resting ECG were described as independent risk factors for development of coronary heart disease. Although more prevalent in women, they are often given less clinical importance than in men. Ten-year follow-up data from the Belgian Interuniversity Research on Nutrition and Health study were used. The results presented here are based on ECGs of the 4,797 men and 4,320 women, aged 25 to 74 years, who were free of angina pectoris at the start of follow-up, had no history of myocardial infarction (MI) and showed no Q wave evidence of an old MI on their ECG. At baseline, the age-standardized prevalence of an "ischemic ECG" (Minnesota codes I3, IV1-3, V1-3 or VII1) was 8.4% in men and 10.6% in women. Cardiovascular mortality rates in men and women with an ischemic ECG were respectively 7.7 and 2.6 per 1,000 person-years, compared with 2.3 and 1.0 in those with no such ECG findings. After correction for the potential confounding effects of established cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, the multivariately adjusted risk ratios were 2.45 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.70 to 3.53) for men and 2.16 (95% CI: 1.30 to 3.58) for women. Testing the interaction between an ischemic ECG and sex on CVD mortality revealed that the risk ratios were not significantly changed (p=0.95). The etiologic fraction of CVD deaths attributable to an ischemic ECG was estimated as 19.3% for men and 22.4% for women. Both men and women with major ischemic findings in their baseline electrocardiogram (Minnesota codes IV1,2, V1,2 or VII1) had a fourfold increased risk of CVD death. These results support the hypothesis that women with ischemic ECG findings are at the same increased risk for CVD mortality as men.
International Journal of Epidemiology, 1995
Samples of railroad male employees aged 40-59 were examined from companies operating in the north... more Samples of railroad male employees aged 40-59 were examined from companies operating in the northwest quadrant of the US in the late 1950s (n = 2571), and in Rome and surroundings. Italy in the early 1960s (n = 768) in an international co-operative study on cardiovascular diseases. A number of cardiovascular risk factors (age, blood pressure, serum cholesterol, body mass index, subscapular skinfold, physical activity, smoking habits) were measured at year 0 and year 5, while data on mortality and causes of death were collected for 25 years. Coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates were always higher in the US than in Italy; after 25 years the excess was 51%. Cox proportional hazards models with CHD deaths as endpoint and seven CHD risk factors as covariates showed only the coefficients for age and smoking habits statistically different between the two cohorts. Changes in systolic blood pressure during the first 5-year follow-up were additional predictors of 5- to 25-year CHD mortality in both groups. Cholesterol plus age (greater in the US), subscapular skinfold (greater in the US) and body mass index (greater in Italy) 'explained' 67% of the observed differences in 25-year CHD mortality in the two cohorts. A large proportion of differential CHD mortality can be attributed to some traditional risk factors.
International Journal of Cancer, 1995
This ecologic study aimed to investigate whether differences in population mortality from lung, s... more This ecologic study aimed to investigate whether differences in population mortality from lung, stomach and colorectal cancer among the 16 cohorts of the Seven Countries Study could be explained by differences in the average intake of anti-oxidant (pro)vitamins. In the I960s, detailed dietary information was collected in small sub-samples of the cohorts by the dietary record method. In 1987, food-equivalent composites representing the average food intake of each cohort at baseline were collected locally and analyzed in a central laboratory. The vital status of all participants was verified after 25 years of follow-up. The average intake of vitamin C was strongly inversely related to the 25-year stomach-cancer mortality (r = -0.66, p = O.Ol), also after adjustment for smoking and
International Journal of Cancer, 1999
Many observational studies have found that higher consumption of vegetables, and to a lesser exte... more Many observational studies have found that higher consumption of vegetables, and to a lesser extent of fruits, was associated with lower risk of colorectal cancer. In particular, fiber or foods high in fiber have received attention in the potential prevention of colorectal cancer. We performed an ecological analysis with data of the Seven Countries Study, to investigate whether intake of fiber and plant foods contributes to cross-cultural differences in 25-year colorectal-cancer mortality in men. In the Seven Countries Study, around 1960 12,763 men aged 40 to 59 were enrolled in 16 cohorts in 7 countries. Baseline dietary information was gathered in small random samples per cohort, and nutrient intakes were based on chemical analyses of the average diets per cohort. Crude and energy-adjusted mortality-rate ratios were calculated for a change of 10% of the mean intake of fiber and plant foods, i.e., total plant foods, fruits, vegetables, potatoes, grains, and related sub-groups. Fiber intake was inversely associated with colorectal-cancer mortality with an energy-adjusted rate ratio of 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.80-0.97). An increase of 10 gram of daily intake of fiber was associated with a 33% lower 25-year colorectal-cancer mortality risk. Intakes of vitamin B6 [0.84 (0.71-0.99)] and ␣-tocopherol [0.94 (0.89-0.99)] were also inversely associated with risk. Consumption of plant foods and related sub-groups was not related to colorectal cancer. It appears that fiber intake best indicates the part of plant food consumption, including whole grains, that is relevant for lowering colorectal cancer risk. Int.
European Journal of Epidemiology, 2007
Time trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality during a 40-year follow-up were studied in ... more Time trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality during a 40-year follow-up were studied in the Seven Countries Study. Thirteen cohorts of men aged 40-59 at entry were enrolled in seven countries (USA, Finland, the Netherlands, Italy, Serbia, Greece and Japan) for a total of 10,628 subjects. Cardiovascular risk factors were measured at entry and at the 10-year follow-up examination and coronary heart disease mortality data collected during 40 years. During the 40-year follow-up, the hazard rate of the Weibull parametric distribution (annual conditional risk of death) for CHD mortality tended to slightly decline in the US, Finnish, Dutch and Japanese cohorts, moderately increased in Italy and exponentially increased in cohorts of Serbia and Greece. A strong positive association was found between the shape of the hazard curve, describing the acceleration of the hazard, and a score of population mean risk factor changes (serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and smoking prevalence) observed during the first 10 years of follow-up, with a correlation coefficient of 0.91 between the two indicators. The countries with a relative decline in the annual hazard function were the same where, during the same historical period, large decreases in official death rate from CHD were recorded, and viceversa. The acceleration in mortality risk for CHD mortality in different countries, described by the shape of the Weibull distribution, is related to changes in mean levels of major coronary risk factors.
European Journal of Cardiovascular Prevention & Rehabilitation, 2008
Background-The aim was to investigate whether multivariate coefficients of serum cholesterol in t... more Background-The aim was to investigate whether multivariate coefficients of serum cholesterol in the prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths were similar across different cultures in a long term follow-up.
Circulation, 2005
Background-Although US cholesterol concentrations have dropped, Ϸ50% of adults have total cholest... more Background-Although US cholesterol concentrations have dropped, Ϸ50% of adults have total cholesterol concentrations Ն5.18 mmol/L, putting them at "borderline-high risk" for heart disease. Whether the decline has continued into the 21st century is unknown. We assessed 20-year trends in cholesterol, hypercholesterolemia, lipid-lowering drug use, and cholesterol awareness, treatment, and control from Minnesota Heart Survey (MHS) data.
Circulation, 1999
Background-We evaluated short-and long-term mortality risks in 30-to 74-year-old patients hospita... more Background-We evaluated short-and long-term mortality risks in 30-to 74-year-old patients hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction or unstable angina and developed a new score called PREDICT. Methods and Results-PREDICT was based on information routinely collected in hospital. Predictors abstracted from hospital record items pertaining to the admission day, including shock, heart failure, ECG findings, cardiovascular disease history, kidney function, and age. Comorbidity was assessed from discharge diagnoses, and mortality was determined from death certificates. For 1985 and 1990 hospitalizations, the 6-year death rate in 6134 patients with 0 to 1 score points was 4%, increasing stepwise to 89% for Ն16 points. Score validity was established by only slightly attenuated mortality prediction in 3570 admissions in 1970 and 1980. When case severity was controlled for, 6-year risk declined 32% between 1970 and 1990. When PREDICT was held constant, 24% of those treated with thrombolysis died in 6 years compared with 31% of those not treated. Conclusions-The simple PREDICT risk score was a powerful prognosticator of 6-year mortality after hospitalization.
Circulation, 1960
Information now available about the prevalence and incidence of coronary heart disease is serious... more Information now available about the prevalence and incidence of coronary heart disease is seriously deficient because of the lack of standardized and objective methods of collection, tabulation, interpretation, and reporting of survey data. Chief reliance in the objective ...
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1966
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 2006
Page 1. COMPARISON OF CARDIOVASCULAR AND RELATED CHARACTERISTICS IN HABITUAL SMOKERS AND NONSMOKE... more Page 1. COMPARISON OF CARDIOVASCULAR AND RELATED CHARACTERISTICS IN HABITUAL SMOKERS AND NONSMOKERS* Henry Blackburn, Josef Brozek,t Henry L. Taylor, Ancel Keys Laboratory of Physiological ...