Bridget Rosewell - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Bridget Rosewell
Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks, Oct 27, 2004
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2009
Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public.
World cement, 1999
The EU must reduce greenhouse gas emissions substantially in the next few years. The UK target is... more The EU must reduce greenhouse gas emissions substantially in the next few years. The UK target is a 20% reduction in CO 2 by 2010. The paper analyses the UK's approach towards practically implementing such a reduction.
Working Below Capacity, 1987
This chapter describes the CBI Survey of Industrial Trends and how it is analysed and interpreted... more This chapter describes the CBI Survey of Industrial Trends and how it is analysed and interpreted. The CBI conducts the Survey, and each month comments upon the results. We undertake occasional research work using the Survey, and we strongly welcome and encourage other research using our data. This chapter also outlines some considerations on capacity and capacity working from the Survey data.
This chapter describes the CBI Survey of Industrial Trends and how it is analysed and interpreted... more This chapter describes the CBI Survey of Industrial Trends and how it is analysed and interpreted. The CBI conducts the Survey, and each month comments upon the results. We undertake occasional research work using the Survey, and we strongly welcome and encourage other research using our data. This chapter also outlines some considerations on capacity and capacity working from the Survey data.
Understanding Complex Systems, 2017
Geography makes little use of the concept of equilibrium. Unlike economics, geographical inquiry ... more Geography makes little use of the concept of equilibrium. Unlike economics, geographical inquiry is based on the recognition of differences and asymmetries among regions and civilisations. In this it does not refer to general mechanisms that would be equivalent to the market for fixing prices and equilibrating supply and demand. Early geographers searched for explanations to the great variety of landscapes and ways of life that were observed all over the planet. Modern geographers study both the 'vertical' interactions between societies and their local milieu and the 'horizontal' interactions between cities and regions. This involves two opposing causes of territorial inequalities, spatial diffusion of innovation and urban transition. Whereas diffusion of innovation alone might result in homogeneity, combined with the dynamics of city formation the result is increasing heterogeneity and inequality. The phenomenon of increasing returns with city size is explained by higher population densities and connections multiplying the probability of productive interactions, as well as by adaptive valuation of accumulated assets. While there may be great wealth, in some large urban agglomerations large informal settlements of slums and shanties are still expanding. Global societal evolution is an open process with no fixed asymptotic point in the future: there is no final equilibrium state to reach for the world. Open evolution may hamper the quality of predictions that can be made about the future, but geographical knowledge of past dynamics may help to make forecasts more certain. Powerful analytical tools have been developed in the last five or six decades that greatly improve the quality of geographical work and its ability to provide stakeholders and decision makers with clearer insights for exploring possible territorial futures. Geographical Information Systems are now universally used in all kind of administrations dealing with localised services. Detailed geographical information from many data sources enables a shift from a macro-static view to a micro-macro dynamical view that is necessary for management and planning policies in a non-linear world. As a science geography remains deliberately far from equilibrium.
inflation and unemployment rates for the UK, Germany, and the US
Philosophy of the Social Sciences, 1998
The core model of orthodox economies does not take proper account of Popper's situational ana... more The core model of orthodox economies does not take proper account of Popper's situational analysis. It follows his injunction to generalize but does not test this against actual historical development. Mathematical tools used with great success in engineering were applied to economics in the final quarter of the nineteenth century. The models constructed with them were intended to be, by their very nature, timeless.
GLA Economics provides expert advice and analysis on London's economy and the economic issues fac... more GLA Economics provides expert advice and analysis on London's economy and the economic issues facing the capital. Data and analysis from GLA Economics form a basis for the policy and investment decisions facing the Mayor of London and the GLA group. The unit is funded by the Greater London Authority, Transport for London and the London Development Agency. GLA Economics uses a wide range of information and data sourced from third party suppliers within its analysis and reports. GLA Economics cannot be held responsible for the accuracy or timeliness of this information and data. GLA Economics, the GLA, LDA and TfL will not be liable for any losses suffered or liabilities incurred by a party as a result of that party relying in any way on the information contained in this report. Working Paper 32: Building Bridges-Some lessons from the Middle Ages on the long-term economic impact of bridges over the Thames GLA Economics 1
Oxford Review of Economic Policy
Infrastructure is central to many aspects of policy, and this focus has survived the impact of Co... more Infrastructure is central to many aspects of policy, and this focus has survived the impact of Covid-induced expenditure. The paper examines the scope for Brexit to allow infrastructure planning to be more devolved, consider demand-side and nature-based solutions, and become more competitive. It concludes that Brexit offers the opportunity for a more system-based approach to infrastructure planning and delivery.
Agent-based models appear strange to many social scientists, and especially to economists. In gen... more Agent-based models appear strange to many social scientists, and especially to economists. In general, they lack explicit analytical solutions and rely instead on simulation to discover their properties. Individual agents are usually heterogeneous, defying simple, easily generalizable descriptions. Probabilistic behaviour of such agents is normally incorporated in the models. It is not surprising that there is suspicion of this modelling approach, since it looks, indeed is, so different from the deterministic models in which most economists are trained. We are writing this paper from our perspective as economists, although the points we make are relevant more generally to the validation of agent-based simulation models.
Property relies on and is an investment. Developers need to plan for a return on the money that t... more Property relies on and is an investment. Developers need to plan for a return on the money that they put up or borrow, and this in turn depends on the ability of property occupiers to generate that return. The result is a capital value for any investment which provides also a store of value and the basis for trading existing investments. This paper looks at some of the elements in this process of creating capital value, and asks whether they are fit for purpose in the United Kingdom in terms of supporting future economic growth. We have been experiencing some of the most difficult economic conditions in the post war period in recent years, especially since the crisis has hit the providers of investment finance and borrowing has become hard to achieve. This provides the backdrop and context to the structural questions. The combination of financial crisis and world structural change creates opportunities as well as challenges. It has to be recognised that resource constraints are like...
We consider in this paper the evolution of a market in which a single product is produced, which ... more We consider in this paper the evolution of a market in which a single product is produced, which can be differentiated both on price and quality. The specific focus is upon the consequences of new entrants into a market in which, initially, there is a single monopoly supplier. We set up an agent-based model of firms and consumers, each following particular rules of behaviour for pricing and purchasing. The model extends beyond the comparative statics of conventional theory. In our model, the market evolves over time, and solutions to the model describe the market structure which evolves and emerges from the process of competition. The model contains a strong element of contingency, so each individual solution of the model is unique. On average, across a large number of solutions, the price falls (and the quality improves) from that set by the monopolist to a level very similar to that implied by the Cournot model, given the average number of firms which survive in the model. However...
GLA Economics provides expert advice and analysis on London's economy and the economic issues... more GLA Economics provides expert advice and analysis on London's economy and the economic issues facing the capital. Data and analysis from GLA Economics form a basis for the policy and investment decisions facing the Mayor of London and the GLA group. The unit is funded by the Greater London Authority, Transport for London and the London Development Agency. GLA Economics uses a wide range of information and data sourced from third party suppliers within its analysis and reports. GLA Economics cannot be held responsible for the accuracy or timeliness of this information and data. GLA Economics, the GLA, LDA and TfL will not be liable for any losses suffered or liabilities incurred by a party as a result of that party relying in any way on the information contained in this report.
Royal Society open science, 2018
In order to deal with an increasingly complex world, we need ever more sophisticated computationa... more In order to deal with an increasingly complex world, we need ever more sophisticated computational models that can help us make decisions wisely and understand the potential consequences of choices. But creating a model requires far more than just raw data and technical skills: it requires a close collaboration between model commissioners, developers, users and reviewers. Good modelling requires its users and commissioners to understand more about the whole process, including the different kinds of purpose a model can have and the different technical bases. This paper offers a guide to the process of commissioning, developing and deploying models across a wide range of domains from public policy to science and engineering. It provides two checklists to help potential modellers, commissioners and users ensure they have considered the most significant factors that will determine success. We conclude there is a need to reinforce modelling as a discipline, so that misconstruction is les...
Understanding Complex Systems, 2017
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2017
Infrastructure is affected in a variety of ways by Brexit. In some areas, such as aviation, rail,... more Infrastructure is affected in a variety of ways by Brexit. In some areas, such as aviation, rail, and energy, there are single market activities at various stages of maturity. In other areas, such as water and waste, regulatory standards have had considerable impact in the past and there are current directives in preparation. These regulations can now be rethought to suit British distinctiveness. Technological change and market developments also require changes in how economic regulation is done, which is an opportunity opened up by Brexit
Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks, Oct 27, 2004
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2009
Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public.
World cement, 1999
The EU must reduce greenhouse gas emissions substantially in the next few years. The UK target is... more The EU must reduce greenhouse gas emissions substantially in the next few years. The UK target is a 20% reduction in CO 2 by 2010. The paper analyses the UK's approach towards practically implementing such a reduction.
Working Below Capacity, 1987
This chapter describes the CBI Survey of Industrial Trends and how it is analysed and interpreted... more This chapter describes the CBI Survey of Industrial Trends and how it is analysed and interpreted. The CBI conducts the Survey, and each month comments upon the results. We undertake occasional research work using the Survey, and we strongly welcome and encourage other research using our data. This chapter also outlines some considerations on capacity and capacity working from the Survey data.
This chapter describes the CBI Survey of Industrial Trends and how it is analysed and interpreted... more This chapter describes the CBI Survey of Industrial Trends and how it is analysed and interpreted. The CBI conducts the Survey, and each month comments upon the results. We undertake occasional research work using the Survey, and we strongly welcome and encourage other research using our data. This chapter also outlines some considerations on capacity and capacity working from the Survey data.
Understanding Complex Systems, 2017
Geography makes little use of the concept of equilibrium. Unlike economics, geographical inquiry ... more Geography makes little use of the concept of equilibrium. Unlike economics, geographical inquiry is based on the recognition of differences and asymmetries among regions and civilisations. In this it does not refer to general mechanisms that would be equivalent to the market for fixing prices and equilibrating supply and demand. Early geographers searched for explanations to the great variety of landscapes and ways of life that were observed all over the planet. Modern geographers study both the 'vertical' interactions between societies and their local milieu and the 'horizontal' interactions between cities and regions. This involves two opposing causes of territorial inequalities, spatial diffusion of innovation and urban transition. Whereas diffusion of innovation alone might result in homogeneity, combined with the dynamics of city formation the result is increasing heterogeneity and inequality. The phenomenon of increasing returns with city size is explained by higher population densities and connections multiplying the probability of productive interactions, as well as by adaptive valuation of accumulated assets. While there may be great wealth, in some large urban agglomerations large informal settlements of slums and shanties are still expanding. Global societal evolution is an open process with no fixed asymptotic point in the future: there is no final equilibrium state to reach for the world. Open evolution may hamper the quality of predictions that can be made about the future, but geographical knowledge of past dynamics may help to make forecasts more certain. Powerful analytical tools have been developed in the last five or six decades that greatly improve the quality of geographical work and its ability to provide stakeholders and decision makers with clearer insights for exploring possible territorial futures. Geographical Information Systems are now universally used in all kind of administrations dealing with localised services. Detailed geographical information from many data sources enables a shift from a macro-static view to a micro-macro dynamical view that is necessary for management and planning policies in a non-linear world. As a science geography remains deliberately far from equilibrium.
inflation and unemployment rates for the UK, Germany, and the US
Philosophy of the Social Sciences, 1998
The core model of orthodox economies does not take proper account of Popper's situational ana... more The core model of orthodox economies does not take proper account of Popper's situational analysis. It follows his injunction to generalize but does not test this against actual historical development. Mathematical tools used with great success in engineering were applied to economics in the final quarter of the nineteenth century. The models constructed with them were intended to be, by their very nature, timeless.
GLA Economics provides expert advice and analysis on London's economy and the economic issues fac... more GLA Economics provides expert advice and analysis on London's economy and the economic issues facing the capital. Data and analysis from GLA Economics form a basis for the policy and investment decisions facing the Mayor of London and the GLA group. The unit is funded by the Greater London Authority, Transport for London and the London Development Agency. GLA Economics uses a wide range of information and data sourced from third party suppliers within its analysis and reports. GLA Economics cannot be held responsible for the accuracy or timeliness of this information and data. GLA Economics, the GLA, LDA and TfL will not be liable for any losses suffered or liabilities incurred by a party as a result of that party relying in any way on the information contained in this report. Working Paper 32: Building Bridges-Some lessons from the Middle Ages on the long-term economic impact of bridges over the Thames GLA Economics 1
Oxford Review of Economic Policy
Infrastructure is central to many aspects of policy, and this focus has survived the impact of Co... more Infrastructure is central to many aspects of policy, and this focus has survived the impact of Covid-induced expenditure. The paper examines the scope for Brexit to allow infrastructure planning to be more devolved, consider demand-side and nature-based solutions, and become more competitive. It concludes that Brexit offers the opportunity for a more system-based approach to infrastructure planning and delivery.
Agent-based models appear strange to many social scientists, and especially to economists. In gen... more Agent-based models appear strange to many social scientists, and especially to economists. In general, they lack explicit analytical solutions and rely instead on simulation to discover their properties. Individual agents are usually heterogeneous, defying simple, easily generalizable descriptions. Probabilistic behaviour of such agents is normally incorporated in the models. It is not surprising that there is suspicion of this modelling approach, since it looks, indeed is, so different from the deterministic models in which most economists are trained. We are writing this paper from our perspective as economists, although the points we make are relevant more generally to the validation of agent-based simulation models.
Property relies on and is an investment. Developers need to plan for a return on the money that t... more Property relies on and is an investment. Developers need to plan for a return on the money that they put up or borrow, and this in turn depends on the ability of property occupiers to generate that return. The result is a capital value for any investment which provides also a store of value and the basis for trading existing investments. This paper looks at some of the elements in this process of creating capital value, and asks whether they are fit for purpose in the United Kingdom in terms of supporting future economic growth. We have been experiencing some of the most difficult economic conditions in the post war period in recent years, especially since the crisis has hit the providers of investment finance and borrowing has become hard to achieve. This provides the backdrop and context to the structural questions. The combination of financial crisis and world structural change creates opportunities as well as challenges. It has to be recognised that resource constraints are like...
We consider in this paper the evolution of a market in which a single product is produced, which ... more We consider in this paper the evolution of a market in which a single product is produced, which can be differentiated both on price and quality. The specific focus is upon the consequences of new entrants into a market in which, initially, there is a single monopoly supplier. We set up an agent-based model of firms and consumers, each following particular rules of behaviour for pricing and purchasing. The model extends beyond the comparative statics of conventional theory. In our model, the market evolves over time, and solutions to the model describe the market structure which evolves and emerges from the process of competition. The model contains a strong element of contingency, so each individual solution of the model is unique. On average, across a large number of solutions, the price falls (and the quality improves) from that set by the monopolist to a level very similar to that implied by the Cournot model, given the average number of firms which survive in the model. However...
GLA Economics provides expert advice and analysis on London's economy and the economic issues... more GLA Economics provides expert advice and analysis on London's economy and the economic issues facing the capital. Data and analysis from GLA Economics form a basis for the policy and investment decisions facing the Mayor of London and the GLA group. The unit is funded by the Greater London Authority, Transport for London and the London Development Agency. GLA Economics uses a wide range of information and data sourced from third party suppliers within its analysis and reports. GLA Economics cannot be held responsible for the accuracy or timeliness of this information and data. GLA Economics, the GLA, LDA and TfL will not be liable for any losses suffered or liabilities incurred by a party as a result of that party relying in any way on the information contained in this report.
Royal Society open science, 2018
In order to deal with an increasingly complex world, we need ever more sophisticated computationa... more In order to deal with an increasingly complex world, we need ever more sophisticated computational models that can help us make decisions wisely and understand the potential consequences of choices. But creating a model requires far more than just raw data and technical skills: it requires a close collaboration between model commissioners, developers, users and reviewers. Good modelling requires its users and commissioners to understand more about the whole process, including the different kinds of purpose a model can have and the different technical bases. This paper offers a guide to the process of commissioning, developing and deploying models across a wide range of domains from public policy to science and engineering. It provides two checklists to help potential modellers, commissioners and users ensure they have considered the most significant factors that will determine success. We conclude there is a need to reinforce modelling as a discipline, so that misconstruction is les...
Understanding Complex Systems, 2017
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2017
Infrastructure is affected in a variety of ways by Brexit. In some areas, such as aviation, rail,... more Infrastructure is affected in a variety of ways by Brexit. In some areas, such as aviation, rail, and energy, there are single market activities at various stages of maturity. In other areas, such as water and waste, regulatory standards have had considerable impact in the past and there are current directives in preparation. These regulations can now be rethought to suit British distinctiveness. Technological change and market developments also require changes in how economic regulation is done, which is an opportunity opened up by Brexit